4th and Inches said:

---

🚨 NEW RCP SENATE PROJECTION

⦿ Republicans — 54
⦿ Democrats — 46

GOP Pick Ups:
✅ Nevada
✅ Georgia
✅ Arizona
✅ 𝐍𝐞𝐰 𝐇𝐚𝐦𝐩𝐬𝐡𝐢𝐫𝐞

✅ GOP Hold: Pennsylvania https://t.co/O5DrwhIQoV pic.twitter.com/6rhMaqBu56

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) November 1, 2022

---

What do you have on Alaska: Murkowski or Tschibaka?

4th and Inches said:

---

NEW POLL: Only 10% of American adults under 40 Strongly Approve of Biden — that number drops to just 7% for Americans between the ages of 18 and 26.

University of Chicago’s Gen Forward Survey Project (2,294 Adults: 18-40)https://t.co/pEI3i1IYCy

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) November 1, 2022

Huge!

Watch for the young adult vote to down this election. They wont vote the other way.. they just wont vote.

---

So how are we to interpret some of the polling units out there who are telling us the Dems are +5 or better in the generic ballot?

He Hate Me said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

🚨 NEW RCP SENATE PROJECTION

⦿ Republicans — 54
⦿ Democrats — 46

GOP Pick Ups:
✅ Nevada
✅ Georgia
✅ Arizona
✅ 𝐍𝐞𝐰 𝐇𝐚𝐦𝐩𝐬𝐡𝐢𝐫𝐞

✅ GOP Hold: Pennsylvania https://t.co/O5DrwhIQoV pic.twitter.com/6rhMaqBu56

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) November 1, 2022

---

What do you have on Alaska: Murkowski or Tschibaka?

---

Sam Lowry said:

---

He Hate Me said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

🚨 NEW RCP SENATE PROJECTION

⦿ Republicans — 54
⦿ Democrats — 46

GOP Pick Ups:
✅ Nevada
✅ Georgia
✅ Arizona
✅ 𝐍𝐞𝐰 𝐇𝐚𝐦𝐩𝐬𝐡𝐢𝐫𝐞

✅ GOP Hold: Pennsylvania https://t.co/O5DrwhIQoV pic.twitter.com/6rhMaqBu56

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) November 1, 2022

---

What do you have on Alaska: Murkowski or Tschibaka?

---

---

Don't make him mad.

4th and Inches said:

---

🚨 NEW RCP SENATE PROJECTION

⦿ Republicans — 54
⦿ Democrats — 46

GOP Pick Ups:
✅ Nevada
✅ Georgia
✅ Arizona
✅ 𝐍𝐞𝐰 𝐇𝐚𝐦𝐩𝐬𝐡𝐢𝐫𝐞

✅ GOP Hold: Pennsylvania https://t.co/O5DrwhIQoV pic.twitter.com/6rhMaqBu56

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) November 1, 2022

---

I've been saying 55-57 is the upper limit. I think its now a coin-flip or better we get to 55 with a pick-up in Washington. Smiley is a ferocious campaigner and that is quite a contrast with the stodgy Murray.

I think Colorado is not quite close enough, and Connecticut looks out of reach. But anything can happen.

"momentum" is strong and will accelerate. (not really...it's always been a red-wave election. The only question is how high is the upper limit.)

Watch for some blue Governors not presumably at risk to fall. And for near or actual historic high GOP margins in the house.

whiterock said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

🚨 NEW RCP SENATE PROJECTION

⦿ Republicans — 54
⦿ Democrats — 46

GOP Pick Ups:
✅ Nevada
✅ Georgia
✅ Arizona
✅ 𝐍𝐞𝐰 𝐇𝐚𝐦𝐩𝐬𝐡𝐢𝐫𝐞

✅ GOP Hold: Pennsylvania https://t.co/O5DrwhIQoV pic.twitter.com/6rhMaqBu56

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) November 1, 2022

---

I've been saying 55-57 is the upper limit. I think its now a coin-flip or better we get to 55 with a pick-up in Washington. Smiley is a ferocious campaigner and that is quite a contrast with the stodgy Murray.

I think Colorado is not quite close enough, and Connecticut looks out of reach. But anything can happen.

"momentum" is strong and will accelerate. (not really...it's always been a red-wave election. The only question is how high is the upper limit.)

Watch for some blue Governors not presumably at risk to fall. And for near or actual historic high GOP margins in the house.

---

You were there early.
It ain't bragging if you produce.

He Hate Me said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

🚨 NEW RCP SENATE PROJECTION

⦿ Republicans — 54
⦿ Democrats — 46

GOP Pick Ups:
✅ Nevada
✅ Georgia
✅ Arizona
✅ 𝐍𝐞𝐰 𝐇𝐚𝐦𝐩𝐬𝐡𝐢𝐫𝐞

✅ GOP Hold: Pennsylvania https://t.co/O5DrwhIQoV pic.twitter.com/6rhMaqBu56

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) November 1, 2022

---

What do you have on Alaska: Murkowski or Tschibaka?

---

Alaskas weird.. Honestly, I think Murkowski pulls it out

4th and Inches said:

---

He Hate Me said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

🚨 NEW RCP SENATE PROJECTION

⦿ Republicans — 54
⦿ Democrats — 46

GOP Pick Ups:
✅ Nevada
✅ Georgia
✅ Arizona
✅ 𝐍𝐞𝐰 𝐇𝐚𝐦𝐩𝐬𝐡𝐢𝐫𝐞

✅ GOP Hold: Pennsylvania https://t.co/O5DrwhIQoV pic.twitter.com/6rhMaqBu56

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) November 1, 2022

---

What do you have on Alaska: Murkowski or Tschibaka?

---

Alaskas weird.. Honestly, I think Murkowski pulls it out

---

Either way, it's a Republican

Osodecentx said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

He Hate Me said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

🚨 NEW RCP SENATE PROJECTION

⦿ Republicans — 54
⦿ Democrats — 46

GOP Pick Ups:
✅ Nevada
✅ Georgia
✅ Arizona
✅ 𝐍𝐞𝐰 𝐇𝐚𝐦𝐩𝐬𝐡𝐢𝐫𝐞

✅ GOP Hold: Pennsylvania https://t.co/O5DrwhIQoV pic.twitter.com/6rhMaqBu56

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) November 1, 2022

---

What do you have on Alaska: Murkowski or Tschibaka?

---

Alaskas weird.. Honestly, I think Murkowski pulls it out

---

Either way, it's a Republican

---

Grrr! Murkowski or the aggie?

538.com now showing Republicans with a 51% chance of taking the Senate

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/

whiterock said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

NEW POLL: Only 10% of American adults under 40 Strongly Approve of Biden — that number drops to just 7% for Americans between the ages of 18 and 26.

University of Chicago’s Gen Forward Survey Project (2,294 Adults: 18-40)https://t.co/pEI3i1IYCy

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) November 1, 2022

Huge!

Watch for the young adult vote to down this election. They wont vote the other way.. they just wont vote.

---

So how are we to interpret some of the polling units out there who are telling us the Dems are +5 or better in the generic ballot?

---

like this

Osodecentx said:

---

538.com now showing Republicans with a 51% chance of taking the Senate

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/

---

and if they take it.. the grift is covered for another cycle.

From an Austin consultant RE Texas:

2022 General Election - Early Voting Report

My apologies for the delay in getting today's report out. Data from some counties was not available for download this morning, so I had to wait until this afternoon to begin compiling information for the entire state. Several of these were large counties so I wanted to wait in order to include them in the report.

We are at 3,393,617 votes cast through yesterday. That means 426,309 people voted yesterday. Every weekday of voting last week saw more votes cast than yesterday. This trend may continue for a day or two more before picking up on Thursday and Friday as early voting comes to an end.


2022 vs. 2018 Turnout

In the top 30 counties, where I am able to compare numbers by day to those cast in 2018, 2,681,123 votes have been cast. At this point in 2018, 3,347,523 votes were cast. That means 666,400 fewer votes this year compared to 2018. After day one, the deficit was only 210,988 votes. The deficit has grown each day since.

(Image see below)

After one day of the margin decreasing between Republican Primary voters and Democratic Primary voters, the margin began increasing again. Currently, 440,895 more Republican Primary voters have voted than Democratic Primary voters. Again, assuming that a large percentage of each party's primary voters vote for their respective party's nominees, Republicans would only need to win 24% of the voters with no primary history in order to get to 50% + 1.

The breakdown of early voters by their previous election history is as follows:
Republican Primary voters 44%
Democratic Primary voters 31%
Voters with no primary election history 25%

Local Data

There are a few counties I am watching, not just because of the story in the county, but also for what the results mean for the state as a whole. For now, here are three counties I am watching:

Tarrant County (Fort Worth) In 2018, Senator Ted Cruz lost Tarrant County by 0.7%. This was a county which had been reliably red for decades. Currently, Republican Primary voters make up 43% of all early votes cast in the county. In 2018, they only made up 34%. If Republicans can increase their margin here, it helps to offset some of the other large counties.

Harris County (Houston) In 2018, Democrats swept countywide offices. Included in the sweep was Republican County Judge Ed Emmett (County Judge...not actually a judicial judge. More like the county's mayor, but that's a story for another day.). Emmett was an extremely popular Republican who was defeated by Democrat Lina Hidalgo. This year, Hidalgo is running for re-election and faces Republican Alex Mealer. Currently, Republican Primary voters make up 36% of all early votes. In 2018, they only made up 25%. Not only is there the possibility of defeating Hidalgo, but if Republicans can win Harris County, the odds of Democrats winning Texas shrink drastically. 14.5% of all of Texas' registered voters live in Harris County.

Travis County (Austin) Travis County is solidly blue, so why am I watching it? Of the five largest counties in the state, this is the county with the largest margin between Republican and Democratic voters and it's a place where a statewide Democratic candidate can make up a lot of ground. In 2018, Beto O'Rourke won with 74% of the vote. There was a 240,494 vote difference between the number of votes O'Rourke received versus those Cruz received. Currently, only 188,729 people have voted in the county.

Tomorrow, I will highlight a few other counties.

The Reports

For the full statewide report, please click here.
For the breakdown by county, please click here.

(If you notice a county where the numbers have not changed since a previous report, this is likely because I downloaded the data I needed before the county had posted their updated list.)


Last Notes

Voters with an effective date of registration after the 2020 General Election* currently make up 9.2% of all votes cast. Interestingly enough, of the 312,274 people in this category, Republican Primary voters have a 28,617 vote advantage over Democratic Primary voters.

*This is the category that includes people who have turned 18 since the 2020 General Election and registered to vote for the first time, people who have moved to Texas, people who have lived here and weren't on the registration rolls in 2020 but have registered since, as well as individuals who have moved from one county to another and registered in their new county of residence.

One take on the somewhat reduced turnout…….a factor - Dems are dispirited. Particularly young voters. Turnout in that demographic is 50-60% of what Dems need for their victory turnout models. This is a nationwide problem, to varying degrees.

In addition, polling shows GOP is roughly breaking even with Hispanics and over 20% with blacks. That's a problem Dems can only overcome with massive turnout. But this cycle, they can't generate the high turnout. So they're facing the worst case: a lower percentage of a lower turnout, a gruesome scenario fir finding a pathway to victory.

Yeah, anything can happen. But. Odds are that final results will be on the upper end of the estimated range for the GOP. And they will more likely exceed the high end of the range rather than fall to the mean.

House could be 50-plus seats. In the Senate, I think 54 is as far as I'd put money on the barrel. But 55 or more is more likely than 50.

Just the nature of the cycle. Worst worst case scenario for Dems. Except for the fact that they are only defending 14 seats out of the 35 seats up for reelection this cycle, and none in a classic red state. That alone saved their bacon.

That screams GOP win.. even in some areas that have been blue in prior elections.

Going to be interested to look at actual results

NEW: The Morning Call/Muhlenberg

PA SENATE
(R) Mehmet Oz 47% (=)
(D) John Fetterman 47%

⦿ In September’s poll, Fetterman held a five-point lead, 49%-44%

⦿ This pollster overstated Dem support by 4.8% in 2020 (Oct polls)https://t.co/NCuzjZWvXU pic.twitter.com/efZp8Thuby

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) November 1, 2022

whiterock said:

---

From an Austin consultant RE Texas:

2022 General Election - Early Voting Report

My apologies for the delay in getting today's report out. Data from some counties was not available for download this morning, so I had to wait until this afternoon to begin compiling information for the entire state. Several of these were large counties so I wanted to wait in order to include them in the report.

We are at 3,393,617 votes cast through yesterday. That means 426,309 people voted yesterday. Every weekday of voting last week saw more votes cast than yesterday. This trend may continue for a day or two more before picking up on Thursday and Friday as early voting comes to an end.


2022 vs. 2018 Turnout

In the top 30 counties, where I am able to compare numbers by day to those cast in 2018, 2,681,123 votes have been cast. At this point in 2018, 3,347,523 votes were cast. That means 666,400 fewer votes this year compared to 2018. After day one, the deficit was only 210,988 votes. The deficit has grown each day since.

(Image see below)

After one day of the margin decreasing between Republican Primary voters and Democratic Primary voters, the margin began increasing again. Currently, 440,895 more Republican Primary voters have voted than Democratic Primary voters. Again, assuming that a large percentage of each party's primary voters vote for their respective party's nominees, Republicans would only need to win 24% of the voters with no primary history in order to get to 50% + 1.

The breakdown of early voters by their previous election history is as follows:
Republican Primary voters 44%
Democratic Primary voters 31%
Voters with no primary election history 25%

Local Data

There are a few counties I am watching, not just because of the story in the county, but also for what the results mean for the state as a whole. For now, here are three counties I am watching:

Tarrant County (Fort Worth) In 2018, Senator Ted Cruz lost Tarrant County by 0.7%. This was a county which had been reliably red for decades. Currently, Republican Primary voters make up 43% of all early votes cast in the county. In 2018, they only made up 34%. If Republicans can increase their margin here, it helps to offset some of the other large counties.

Harris County (Houston) In 2018, Democrats swept countywide offices. Included in the sweep was Republican County Judge Ed Emmett (County Judge...not actually a judicial judge. More like the county's mayor, but that's a story for another day.). Emmett was an extremely popular Republican who was defeated by Democrat Lina Hidalgo. This year, Hidalgo is running for re-election and faces Republican Alex Mealer. Currently, Republican Primary voters make up 36% of all early votes. In 2018, they only made up 25%. Not only is there the possibility of defeating Hidalgo, but if Republicans can win Harris County, the odds of Democrats winning Texas shrink drastically. 14.5% of all of Texas' registered voters live in Harris County.

Travis County (Austin) Travis County is solidly blue, so why am I watching it? Of the five largest counties in the state, this is the county with the largest margin between Republican and Democratic voters and it's a place where a statewide Democratic candidate can make up a lot of ground. In 2018, Beto O'Rourke won with 74% of the vote. There was a 240,494 vote difference between the number of votes O'Rourke received versus those Cruz received. Currently, only 188,729 people have voted in the county.

Tomorrow, I will highlight a few other counties.

The Reports

For the full statewide report, please click here.
For the breakdown by county, please click here.

(If you notice a county where the numbers have not changed since a previous report, this is likely because I downloaded the data I needed before the county had posted their updated list.)


Last Notes

Voters with an effective date of registration after the 2020 General Election* currently make up 9.2% of all votes cast. Interestingly enough, of the 312,274 people in this category, Republican Primary voters have a 28,617 vote advantage over Democratic Primary voters.

*This is the category that includes people who have turned 18 since the 2020 General Election and registered to vote for the first time, people who have moved to Texas, people who have lived here and weren't on the registration rolls in 2020 but have registered since, as well as individuals who have moved from one county to another and registered in their new county of residence.

---

Does this person make final vote projections in comparison to last cycles?

whiterock said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

That screams GOP win.. even in some areas that have been blue in prior elections.

Going to be interested to look at actual results

---

Get the sense that in TX the GOP vote is trending up a bit while Dems are starting to falter. So the margin of victory will grow. All statewide likely to win by double digits.

This begs serious questions about Dems having a big institutional grift problem - putting up appealing candidates in Red states not so much because the state can be won as much as the Dem blue-state fundraising bases are susceptible to sales pitches. Take NY. Metric ****-tons of blue donor money, and Dems hold all the state offices and courts and both houses of lege. Comfortably. It's a blue state. GOP is weak; unable to compete on multiple levels. So donors are not stretched to limits for in-state races, leaving them room to donate to win red states. Consultants know how to milk that dynamic.

So now we see Beto and Abrahms having raised over $150m in four losing campaigns. Not counting indy spends. Then there's Graham's 2020 SC Senate race, where his opponent raised +$130m only to lose by nearly double digits.)

At some point, Dem donors will get wise to the grift. And if NY and MI and MN and PA all get red governors……the money to fund the next Beto will dry up.

Dem hegemony is teetering….

---

It will be interesting if Beto loses in the expected 11 to 15 point margin, placing him on par with every single gubernatorial loser this century in Texas despite the cash and hype.

midgett said:

---

First 7 days of early voting:

Dallas County down 112,000 - 35% - vs 2018

Collin County down 42,000 - 23% - vs 2018

Tarrant County down 61,000 - 22% - vs 2018

Denton County down 12,000 - 9% - vs 2018

There was rain on 2 of the 7 days. My wife and I voted Friday when it was raining. No line.

There is still time for a surge. Important to note that Texas has added almost 1.9 million voters since 2018. Of the 4 counties above, Dallas County added the fewest.

In 2018, Beto beat Cruz in Dallas County 66-33 or by 240,000 votes.
In Collin County, Cruz won 52.6-46.5 or by 22,000 votes.

It appears voting is down more where Beto did best.

Also, we are seeing a strong lack of voting interest from young voters. Then tend to be Democrat at that age. They've yet to develop much wisdom. :-)

---

They are highly susceptible to anything that triggers an emotion in them. And they haven't opened their eyes to how corrupt our govt is.

whiterock said:

---

One take on the somewhat reduced turnout…….a factor - Dems are dispirited. Particularly young voters. Turnout in that demographic is 50-60% of what Dems need for their victory turnout models. This is a nationwide problem, to varying degrees.

In addition, polling shows GOP is roughly breaking even with Hispanics and over 20% with blacks. That's a problem Dems can only overcome with massive turnout. But this cycle, they can't generate the high turnout. So they're facing the worst case: a lower percentage of a lower turnout, a gruesome scenario fir finding a pathway to victory.

Yeah, anything can happen. But. Odds are that final results will be on the upper end of the estimated range for the GOP. And they will more likely exceed the high end of the range rather than fall to the mean.

House could be 50-plus seats. In the Senate, I think 54 is as far as I'd put money on the barrel. But 55 or more is more likely than 50.

Just the nature of the cycle. Worst worst case scenario for Dems. Except for the fact that they are only defending 14 seats out of the 35 seats up for reelection this cycle, and none in a classic red state. That alone saved their bacon.

---

Or he tightening of the vote by mail, drop box and vote harvesting is keeping the shenanigans (not fraud, harvesting) out and we are seeing a truer read on numberd.

Ursus Americanus said:

---

whiterock said:

---

From an Austin consultant RE Texas:

2022 General Election - Early Voting Report

My apologies for the delay in getting today's report out. Data from some counties was not available for download this morning, so I had to wait until this afternoon to begin compiling information for the entire state. Several of these were large counties so I wanted to wait in order to include them in the report.

We are at 3,393,617 votes cast through yesterday. That means 426,309 people voted yesterday. Every weekday of voting last week saw more votes cast than yesterday. This trend may continue for a day or two more before picking up on Thursday and Friday as early voting comes to an end.


2022 vs. 2018 Turnout

In the top 30 counties, where I am able to compare numbers by day to those cast in 2018, 2,681,123 votes have been cast. At this point in 2018, 3,347,523 votes were cast. That means 666,400 fewer votes this year compared to 2018. After day one, the deficit was only 210,988 votes. The deficit has grown each day since.

(Image see below)

After one day of the margin decreasing between Republican Primary voters and Democratic Primary voters, the margin began increasing again. Currently, 440,895 more Republican Primary voters have voted than Democratic Primary voters. Again, assuming that a large percentage of each party's primary voters vote for their respective party's nominees, Republicans would only need to win 24% of the voters with no primary history in order to get to 50% + 1.

The breakdown of early voters by their previous election history is as follows:
Republican Primary voters 44%
Democratic Primary voters 31%
Voters with no primary election history 25%

Local Data

There are a few counties I am watching, not just because of the story in the county, but also for what the results mean for the state as a whole. For now, here are three counties I am watching:

Tarrant County (Fort Worth) In 2018, Senator Ted Cruz lost Tarrant County by 0.7%. This was a county which had been reliably red for decades. Currently, Republican Primary voters make up 43% of all early votes cast in the county. In 2018, they only made up 34%. If Republicans can increase their margin here, it helps to offset some of the other large counties.

Harris County (Houston) In 2018, Democrats swept countywide offices. Included in the sweep was Republican County Judge Ed Emmett (County Judge...not actually a judicial judge. More like the county's mayor, but that's a story for another day.). Emmett was an extremely popular Republican who was defeated by Democrat Lina Hidalgo. This year, Hidalgo is running for re-election and faces Republican Alex Mealer. Currently, Republican Primary voters make up 36% of all early votes. In 2018, they only made up 25%. Not only is there the possibility of defeating Hidalgo, but if Republicans can win Harris County, the odds of Democrats winning Texas shrink drastically. 14.5% of all of Texas' registered voters live in Harris County.

Travis County (Austin) Travis County is solidly blue, so why am I watching it? Of the five largest counties in the state, this is the county with the largest margin between Republican and Democratic voters and it's a place where a statewide Democratic candidate can make up a lot of ground. In 2018, Beto O'Rourke won with 74% of the vote. There was a 240,494 vote difference between the number of votes O'Rourke received versus those Cruz received. Currently, only 188,729 people have voted in the county.

Tomorrow, I will highlight a few other counties.

The Reports

For the full statewide report, please click here.
For the breakdown by county, please click here.

(If you notice a county where the numbers have not changed since a previous report, this is likely because I downloaded the data I needed before the county had posted their updated list.)


Last Notes

Voters with an effective date of registration after the 2020 General Election* currently make up 9.2% of all votes cast. Interestingly enough, of the 312,274 people in this category, Republican Primary voters have a 28,617 vote advantage over Democratic Primary voters.

*This is the category that includes people who have turned 18 since the 2020 General Election and registered to vote for the first time, people who have moved to Texas, people who have lived here and weren't on the registration rolls in 2020 but have registered since, as well as individuals who have moved from one county to another and registered in their new county of residence.

---

Does this person make final vote projections in comparison to last cycles?

---

no. just looking at the voter turnout data and making inferences. Turnout suggests GOP will run the table.

The most significant part of the report is the "previous election history" section. One can know that Republicans will vote +90% GOP, Dems will vote +90% Dem. The only thing really in question is the voters with no prior history. Yeah, there will be some grandpas, soccer moms, and recently naturalized immigrants showing up for the first time, but mostly this is new voters who just got out of high school or college. That is a heavily DEMOCRAT demographic. Also a historically lower turnout percentage demographic. Of course, Democrat campaigns know all that and work diligently to get young people to the polls. Beto excelled at it in 2018. EX: they got Hays County to put polling locations ON the Texas State Campus, and then spent much time organizing on campus. Turnout on campus soared.... (as I've said here before, Beto is an outstanding candidate in all the things that matter most....knows how to fundraise organize, campaigns hard, personable, earnest, etc...)

In the past two cycles, though, there have been hundreds of thousands of in-migrants, people moving here from other states. THAT has proven to be an overwhelmingly GOP demographic.

Anyway, in the previous history commentary, you will see the statement.... "Republicans would only need to win 24% of the voters with no primary history in order to get to 50% + 1.".... That is, given the nature of the Tx electorate, fairly easy for the GOP to do. the 20-30 demographic is way down among the lowest turnout demos over time. Takes a really charismatic candidate like an Obama or Beto to get them inspired to vote. And Beto is old hat now.

And amid all that, the RGV is turning red.

The victory model the Democrats have poured hundred of millions of (mostly Soros) dollars into building the last decade is the proverbial hay barn on fire. It'll be a near total loss.

Dems are back to square one in Texas.

RMF5630 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

One take on the somewhat reduced turnout…….a factor - Dems are dispirited. Particularly young voters. Turnout in that demographic is 50-60% of what Dems need for their victory turnout models. This is a nationwide problem, to varying degrees.

In addition, polling shows GOP is roughly breaking even with Hispanics and over 20% with blacks. That's a problem Dems can only overcome with massive turnout. But this cycle, they can't generate the high turnout. So they're facing the worst case: a lower percentage of a lower turnout, a gruesome scenario fir finding a pathway to victory.

Yeah, anything can happen. But. Odds are that final results will be on the upper end of the estimated range for the GOP. And they will more likely exceed the high end of the range rather than fall to the mean.

House could be 50-plus seats. In the Senate, I think 54 is as far as I'd put money on the barrel. But 55 or more is more likely than 50.

Just the nature of the cycle. Worst worst case scenario for Dems. Except for the fact that they are only defending 14 seats out of the 35 seats up for reelection this cycle, and none in a classic red state. That alone saved their bacon.

---

Or he tightening of the vote by mail, drop box and vote harvesting is keeping the shenanigans (not fraud, harvesting) out and we are seeing a truer read on numberd.

---

in 2020, Trafalgar polls actually factored in an allowance for fraud. Haven't heard him comment on that this cycle, but I'd assume he's done that again, particularly in PA.

GOP already has the PA lege. When they regain the Gov mansion (whenever that is) they simply have to root out the fraud in Philly. Cannot be allowed to continue.

whiterock said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

One take on the somewhat reduced turnout…….a factor - Dems are dispirited. Particularly young voters. Turnout in that demographic is 50-60% of what Dems need for their victory turnout models. This is a nationwide problem, to varying degrees.

In addition, polling shows GOP is roughly breaking even with Hispanics and over 20% with blacks. That's a problem Dems can only overcome with massive turnout. But this cycle, they can't generate the high turnout. So they're facing the worst case: a lower percentage of a lower turnout, a gruesome scenario fir finding a pathway to victory.

Yeah, anything can happen. But. Odds are that final results will be on the upper end of the estimated range for the GOP. And they will more likely exceed the high end of the range rather than fall to the mean.

House could be 50-plus seats. In the Senate, I think 54 is as far as I'd put money on the barrel. But 55 or more is more likely than 50.

Just the nature of the cycle. Worst worst case scenario for Dems. Except for the fact that they are only defending 14 seats out of the 35 seats up for reelection this cycle, and none in a classic red state. That alone saved their bacon.

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Or he tightening of the vote by mail, drop box and vote harvesting is keeping the shenanigans (not fraud, harvesting) out and we are seeing a truer read on numberd.

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in 2020, Trafalgar polls actually factored in an allowance for fraud. Haven't heard him comment on that this cycle, but I'd assume he's done that again, particularly in PA.

GOP already has the PA lege. When they regain the Gov mansion (whenever that is) they simply have to root out the fraud in Philly. Cannot be allowed to continue.

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the PA supreme court decision that came out yesterday that said they will not be allowed count undated or incorrectly dated ballots is another blow to Dems

4th and Inches said:

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whiterock said:

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RMF5630 said:

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whiterock said:

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One take on the somewhat reduced turnout…….a factor - Dems are dispirited. Particularly young voters. Turnout in that demographic is 50-60% of what Dems need for their victory turnout models. This is a nationwide problem, to varying degrees.

In addition, polling shows GOP is roughly breaking even with Hispanics and over 20% with blacks. That's a problem Dems can only overcome with massive turnout. But this cycle, they can't generate the high turnout. So they're facing the worst case: a lower percentage of a lower turnout, a gruesome scenario fir finding a pathway to victory.

Yeah, anything can happen. But. Odds are that final results will be on the upper end of the estimated range for the GOP. And they will more likely exceed the high end of the range rather than fall to the mean.

House could be 50-plus seats. In the Senate, I think 54 is as far as I'd put money on the barrel. But 55 or more is more likely than 50.

Just the nature of the cycle. Worst worst case scenario for Dems. Except for the fact that they are only defending 14 seats out of the 35 seats up for reelection this cycle, and none in a classic red state. That alone saved their bacon.

---

Or he tightening of the vote by mail, drop box and vote harvesting is keeping the shenanigans (not fraud, harvesting) out and we are seeing a truer read on numberd.

---

in 2020, Trafalgar polls actually factored in an allowance for fraud. Haven't heard him comment on that this cycle, but I'd assume he's done that again, particularly in PA.

GOP already has the PA lege. When they regain the Gov mansion (whenever that is) they simply have to root out the fraud in Philly. Cannot be allowed to continue.

---

the PA supreme court decision that came out yesterday that said they will not be allowed count undated or incorrectly dated ballots is another blow to Dems

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I thought this at first - but they'll just go get a post office stamp somewhere and set the postmark date.

Married A Horn said:

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4th and Inches said:

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whiterock said:

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RMF5630 said:

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whiterock said:

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One take on the somewhat reduced turnout…….a factor - Dems are dispirited. Particularly young voters. Turnout in that demographic is 50-60% of what Dems need for their victory turnout models. This is a nationwide problem, to varying degrees.

In addition, polling shows GOP is roughly breaking even with Hispanics and over 20% with blacks. That's a problem Dems can only overcome with massive turnout. But this cycle, they can't generate the high turnout. So they're facing the worst case: a lower percentage of a lower turnout, a gruesome scenario fir finding a pathway to victory.

Yeah, anything can happen. But. Odds are that final results will be on the upper end of the estimated range for the GOP. And they will more likely exceed the high end of the range rather than fall to the mean.

House could be 50-plus seats. In the Senate, I think 54 is as far as I'd put money on the barrel. But 55 or more is more likely than 50.

Just the nature of the cycle. Worst worst case scenario for Dems. Except for the fact that they are only defending 14 seats out of the 35 seats up for reelection this cycle, and none in a classic red state. That alone saved their bacon.

---

Or he tightening of the vote by mail, drop box and vote harvesting is keeping the shenanigans (not fraud, harvesting) out and we are seeing a truer read on numberd.

---

in 2020, Trafalgar polls actually factored in an allowance for fraud. Haven't heard him comment on that this cycle, but I'd assume he's done that again, particularly in PA.

GOP already has the PA lege. When they regain the Gov mansion (whenever that is) they simply have to root out the fraud in Philly. Cannot be allowed to continue.

---

the PA supreme court decision that came out yesterday that said they will not be allowed count undated or incorrectly dated ballots is another blow to Dems

---

I thought this at first - but they'll just go get a post office stamp somewhere and set the postmark date.

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It's not like the postal union has a dog in the fight.

whiterock, there was an article in the DMN yesterday with complaints about the lack of early voting booths on TX college campuses. Lordy, they may have to drive 10 minutes to vote early!

Always fewer early locations. DMN slants stuff to the left more and more.

4th and Inches said:

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Osodecentx said:

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538.com now showing Republicans with a 51% chance of taking the Senate

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/

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and if they take it.. the grift is covered for another cycle.

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In Silver's defense, talked yesterday to our top DC lobbyist, very well connected in GOP circles. She still says Senate could go either way. If she had to bet, it goes GOP, but if it does, it's all late momentum/lower (so far) than expected turnout of young voters. Internals still not great in AZ, PA, and GA. AZ down, PA and GA tight. GOP is shocked that Fetterman is hanging tough. Not buying the NH hype or anything west. Say what you will about Mitch, but he'd sell his left arm for a majority, and he just declined to spend a dime in AZ and NH yet dumped money into all the other close states, including OH, NV, and NC, which all should be in the bag but still too close for comfort. Early voting mostly good, but some odd bad pockets in key areas. Bottom line, it's close all over. I'll glady eat crow (as will she) if it ends up a GOP tsunami. Should get another update Friday or over the weekend.