Osodecentx said:
Ursus Americanus said:
4th and Inches said:
Ursus Americanus said:
Osodecentx said:
4th and Inches said:
Osodecentx said:
4th and Inches said:
fetterman may not make it to the election.. watch video of him, he is in bad shape. Oz is not great canidate but fetterman is terrible. If he wins, people arent paying attention or voting against Oz Fetterman is bad, Oz is worse. Republicans lose a seat.
Vance is gonna win Ohio.I hope so, I like him. If he wins, Republicans hold a seat they have
Walker is gonna win GA. Nope, Republicans really need to pick up a seat somewhere. I thought this would be easy
Laxalt is leading in NV, watch that one. I think you're right. Republicans flip a seat.
Johnson is -4 in WI according to FoX poll but Fox overstated WI polling by 6.5 in 2020.. this is a horse race folks. I hope you're right. If you are right, Republicans hold a seat.
Republicans have a decent shot to pick up that Nevada senate seat. I thought we would pick up Arizona until Trump endorsed a loser.
If everything goes right, Republicanshave 50 senators. BTW, Ohio and Wisconsin are a problem.
Advantage Schumer
even 538 shows Walker leading in GA.. dont get so down on this one yet.
Dont look at any driveby media polls, they are done for news and have a really bad track record. They are over sampling Dems consistently.
OZ is gaining ground.. same pollster had him down 2.6% a month ago
Sure hope you're right
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/
The Republicans have a six point lead in the generic national ballot and Biden is below 40 percent in approval rating ,the MSM narrative really doesn't add up.
OZ is down in the GOP vote.. He has to unite that voter block. The indies are behind him already.
Fetterman is losing ground, he had 50% at one point but is polling at 44% now(same as the generic), thats very beatable
In 2018 on average polls over sampled Dems by 4 percent.
Link?
That's typical. AP referred to it in a post a few days ago....most public polling firms work hard to keep races competitive and publish polls on universes that they privately know are not likely to vote. News media polls are the worst about that. They could care less about being "right" in September. They want to create an exciting narrative about hotly contested races. It helps fundraising for candidates. I helps ratings for networks. Which helps ad rates, for networks, who are selling ads to campaigns, in an election year..... (self-feeding ecosystem). Yet, those dodgey polls get included in 530 and RCP averages anyway. because 538 and RCP are publishers who need enough polls to have a credible average. And they really are only concerned with being right at the end. Until then, they have to sell ads, too.....
About 5 days before election, the media polls will usually "tighten." In reality, they are merely moving to move to where the pollsters really think the races will go, so that they can talk later about how accurate they were. All they have to do is be within the margin of error. All of it it's not so much about partisanship as it is about business. Doesn't matter how accurate you are in September. In September, it's more about keeping news interest in the races by keeping them competitive, about currying favor with electeds by not shutting off their fundraising with gloomy polls. And some of those firms have political clients, so there is some partisan business going on.
Johnson is a great example. At this point in his 2016 race, SRCC pulled their ads. 9 points out. He was deemed non-competitive. Then, about two weeks out, the SRCC jumped back in big. They saw movement and wanted to help out. He won comfortably. He always polls terribly. And always closes well. He should win. It's a much better environment for him than 2016 and he's running 7 points better at this point than he did in 2016.
So 538 and RCP are still lagging the polls, and will do so all the way to the end. It's just the methodology of the averages. If you want to actually get a snapshot of where the races are TODAY, watch the GOP independent polls - Trafalgar, Insider Advantage, Rasmussen, Rich Baris, Tipp/IBD...... Average out those five and you'll be closer to where the race really is, and where the averages and other polling firms will be going.
GOP Senate could end up +3-4 range. Very easily. +1 seems pretty safe.
