U.S Senate races

49,449 Views | 1187 Replies | Last: 1 yr ago by Osodecentx
4th and Inches
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In reply to Married A Horn • 5:03p, 10/6/22
Married A Horn said:
Im still sticking with 53-47. I just dont think Oz wins.
Qantas agrees with you. They currently have masters at half a percent behind Kelly out in AZ

Lake could pull him over, especially if there are any silent MAGA votes
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4th and Inches
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8:29p, 10/6/22
Rich just released new AZ info..
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4th and Inches
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8:34p, 10/6/22
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Cobretti
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8:40p, 10/6/22


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Cobretti
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8:59p, 10/6/22
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4th and Inches
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9:47p, 10/6/22
Masters looking stronger and stronger..
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whiterock
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In reply to 4th and Inches • 6:48a, 10/7/22
4th and Inches said:
Masters looking stronger and stronger..
Kelly at 46 is right at the tipping point. He will have to win the undecided votes by a margin that's tough for a guy at 46% to do.
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4th and Inches
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8:01a, 10/7/22
Originally I was thinking we were going to be at 51/49 but it looks like we can be a little more optimistic and get to 52 or 53
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whiterock
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In reply to 4th and Inches • 8:04a, 10/7/22
4th and Inches said:
Originally I was thinking we were going to be at 51/49 but it looks like we can be a little more optimistic and get to 52 or 53
macro-conditions and momentum will tug results. everything that can break will break, and break right.

here's an article from RCP feed that lays out in detail the dynamics you and I have mentioned. Bias of Cook is fairly easy to calculate, and 538 is just a mess.

https://amgreatness.com/2022/10/05/three-views-on-the-election/
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Wrecks Quan Dough
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In reply to whiterock • 11:38a, 10/7/22
whiterock said:
4th and Inches said:
Originally I was thinking we were going to be at 51/49 but it looks like we can be a little more optimistic and get to 52 or 53
macro-conditions and momentum will tug results. everything that can break will break, and break right.

here's an article from RCP feed that lays out in detail the dynamics you and I have mentioned. Bias of Cook is fairly easy to calculate, and 538 is just a mess.

https://amgreatness.com/2022/10/05/three-views-on-the-election/


The Saudis and Russians made sure gas prices will go up as people head to the polls mailboxes.
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Ursus Americanus
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In reply to Wrecks Quan Dough • 11:55a, 10/7/22
He Hate Me said:
whiterock said:
4th and Inches said:
Originally I was thinking we were going to be at 51/49 but it looks like we can be a little more optimistic and get to 52 or 53
macro-conditions and momentum will tug results. everything that can break will break, and break right.

here's an article from RCP feed that lays out in detail the dynamics you and I have mentioned. Bias of Cook is fairly easy to calculate, and 538 is just a mess.

https://amgreatness.com/2022/10/05/three-views-on-the-election/


The Saudis and Russians made sure gas prices will go up as people head to the polls mailboxes.
You'd think they'd prefer Democrats, the present regime is playing right into their hands.
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whiterock
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In reply to Ursus Americanus • 12:19p, 10/7/22
Ursus Americanus said:
He Hate Me said:
whiterock said:
4th and Inches said:
Originally I was thinking we were going to be at 51/49 but it looks like we can be a little more optimistic and get to 52 or 53
macro-conditions and momentum will tug results. everything that can break will break, and break right.

here's an article from RCP feed that lays out in detail the dynamics you and I have mentioned. Bias of Cook is fairly easy to calculate, and 538 is just a mess.

https://amgreatness.com/2022/10/05/three-views-on-the-election/


The Saudis and Russians made sure gas prices will go up as people head to the polls mailboxes.
You'd think they'd prefer Democrats, the present regime is playing right into their hands.
Saudis/OPEC are furious over Biden admin making the round mouth for Iran.

And I don't blame them. Iran WOULD be a logical strategic partner in the Middle East, for a goodly list of reasons. But, and this is key, there is no indication whatsoever that Iran believes the US would be a logical strategic partner for any reasons at all.

Dems chasing Iran is like Lloyd chasing Mary from Dumb & Dumber. It makes no sense why they would try such a thing. Not.Going.To.Happen
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4th and Inches
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6:35p, 10/7/22


I think Lake will help pull Masters to a win in AZ. I think everything with break right..
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4th and Inches
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7:47p, 10/7/22
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Harrison Bergeron
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7:49p, 10/7/22
Pennsylvania really will select the racist fat man-child over the self made BIPOC physician?
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4th and Inches
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In reply to Harrison Bergeron • 8:02p, 10/7/22
Harrison Bergeron said:
Pennsylvania really will select the racist fat man-child over the self made BIPOC physician?
Dont know yet but AZ has swung hard towards Masters.. heard he is out pacing Kelly by 3 in Maricopa. That is huge.

OZ can still win but I think this may be a tougher hill than others.

Hearing Murkowski is feeling the pressure in AK too
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Osodecentx
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In reply to 4th and Inches • 12:56p, 10/8/22
4th and Inches said:
Harrison Bergeron said:
Pennsylvania really will select the racist fat man-child over the self made BIPOC physician?
Dont know yet but AZ has swung hard towards Masters.. heard he is out pacing Kelly by 3 in Maricopa. That is huge.

OZ can still win but I think this may be a tougher hill than others.

Hearing Murkowski is feeling the pressure in AK too
Alaska has ranked voting system. Two R's and 1 D running in Nov election. The 2 Rs are running neck and neck with the D in the low teens
Popular wisdom says the Ds will break for Murkowski. Murkowski backed the ranked system passed because of problems with Republicans
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4th and Inches
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11:21a, 10/9/22
I know its no senate but worth noting..
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Osodecentx
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In reply to 4th and Inches • 11:39a, 10/9/22
4th and Inches said:
I know its no senate but worth noting..
Encouraging.
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Cobretti
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11:40a, 10/11/22
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4th and Inches
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12:29p, 10/11/22
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Harrison Bergeron
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In reply to 4th and Inches • 12:43p, 10/11/22
4th and Inches said:
From physically assaulting his wife with a vehicle to covering up a child sex scandal at a church camp, Warnock seems like the bad stereotype of the preacher who monetizes Christianity for a fast buck.
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4th and Inches
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7:52p, 10/11/22
Red alert!

Things could get interesting in AZ, NV, some CA races..
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Cobretti
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8:31p, 10/11/22

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4th and Inches
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9:44p, 10/11/22
Washington is heating up! Smiley is gaining ground.
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Cobretti
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10:26p, 10/11/22
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Harrison Bergeron
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In reply to Cobretti • 10:35p, 10/11/22
Cobretti said:
This has all the tenets of Russian disinformation. Probably needs a #factcheck!
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Osodecentx
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In reply to 4th and Inches • 3:30p, 10/12/22
4th and Inches said:
Masters looking stronger and stronger..
Hispanic vote is shifting to GOP

The choices made by Latino voters on Nov. 8 will be crucial to the outcome in a disproportionate share of Senate battleground states, like Arizona (31.5 percent of the population), Nevada (28.9), Florida (25.8), Colorado (21.7), Georgia (9.6) and North Carolina (9.5).
Two weeks ago, The Texas Tribune reported:
Since Labor Day, outside G.O.P. groups have blasted the Democratic nominees on multiple fronts, criticizing them all as weak on border issues and then zeroing in on candidate-specific vulnerabilities. Democratic groups are countering in two of the races, though for now, it is Republicans who appear to be in a more offensive posture.
Last week, Axios reported that in the 15th Congressional District, which is 81.9 percent Hispanic, national Democratic groups had begun to abandon its nominee as a lost cause:
Texas Democrat Michelle Vallejo, a progressive running in a majority-Hispanic Rio Grande Valley district against Republican Monica De La Cruz, isn't getting any Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee support in her Trump +3 district. House Majority PAC is planning to cancel the scheduled ad reservations for her at the end of the month, according to a source familiar with the group's plans.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/12/opinion/midterms-latino-voters.html
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4th and Inches
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7:43p, 10/12/22
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4th and Inches
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7:45p, 10/12/22


Got to think that the other GOPs carry Walker to a win..
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whiterock
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In reply to 4th and Inches • 8:01p, 10/12/22
4th and Inches said:


Got to think that the other GOPs carry Walker to a win..


They're hiding it in the undecideds. Warnock at 46 with 13 points undecided is teetering on toast. Undecideds will break hard red, given the GA electorate and the current set of issues.

Biden headed to OR and CO to support Gov and Sen candidates. (Dems playing defense in what should be safe turf even in a tough cycle.)

Gabbard headed to NH to help Bolduc. (GOP spending $$ in what should not be a competitive race.)

Looking good, Billy Ray!
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Harrison Bergeron
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8:18p, 10/12/22
I still find it strange the Democrat and regime media are supporting a racist, privileged white guy over a BIPOC who would be the first Muslim elected to the Senate. I thought it was about EQUITY!
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4th and Inches
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In reply to Harrison Bergeron • 8:25p, 10/12/22
Harrison Bergeron said:
I still find it strange the Democrat and regime media are supporting a racist, privileged white guy over a BIPOC who would be the first Muslim elected to the Senate. I thought it was about EQUITY!
he isnt the right kind of Muslim BIPOC.. kind of like how they dont like conservative blacks(see recall race against Newsance in CA)
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4th and Inches
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In reply to 4th and Inches • 8:32p, 10/12/22
4th and Inches said:


Got to think that the other GOPs carry Walker to a win..


Trafalgar has it at 1 point and Warnock has the same percent so looks he may be tapped out. Has to get to 50% to avoid run off right?
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whiterock
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In reply to 4th and Inches • 6:00a, 10/13/22
4th and Inches said:
4th and Inches said:


Got to think that the other GOPs carry Walker to a win..


Trafalgar has it at 1 point and Warnock has the same percent so looks he may be tapped out. Has to get to 50% to avoid run off right?
unless they can persuade the undecideds not to vote.

when we see a guy stuck at 46 percent over time with 8-10 points of undecideds....he's at his ceiling. And his campaign consultants know it. Their only way to get to fifty is to persuade all those undecideds not to vote. And they do that by going thermonuclear negative on Walker....to make all those people who've already done the Oso on Warnock to also do the Oso on Walker. That reduces the electorate to the hard supporters shown by polling, in which case Warnock really would have a 1 point advantage.

The problem with that strategy is that it works best in a time of peace & prosperity. Not so much when times are hard and it's pretty clear who's responsible. Those tend to be change elections.

The polls and the elections are going to start breaking inexorably right, as the pollsters get more confident about moving the undecideds over into the red bucket.

OPEC has already voted, and it will be the nail in the coffin. In set-piece battles, classic example being Napoleonic era warfare, victory almost always went to the general who committed his reserves LAST. Trump filled up our strategic petroleum reserve for the first time in many, many years. Biden drained it this summer to drive down gas prices, to take that issue off the table. And it worked. Polling that showed GOP at historic support in June started slipping back toward blue all summer as gas prices declined. Now, we've gone about as far as we dare, and OPEC just cut production. Prices are already reversing....and will for the entire month before election (and beyond). OPEC committed its "reserves" last. Dems have none left. Checkmate.
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