U.S Senate races

49,527 Views | 1187 Replies | Last: 1 yr ago by Osodecentx
Married A Horn
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Fetterwoman over Oz is the one I dont think we'll get. Rinos just dont energize our base (contrary to what the left tries to get us to believe).

Red wins:
53-47
Married A Horn

Hutto Hippo
Trinity Trojan
Osodecentx
How long do you want to ignore this user?
4th and Inches said:

Osodecentx said:

Osodecentx said:

4th and Inches said:

Redbrickbear said:

C. Jordan said:

Looks really good for Dems right now.

They can thank Trump and his promotion of awful candidates: Vance, Oz, and Walker, among others.


I agree with you on Oz…fetterman is gonna win in PA.

But Vance is a good candidate and is gonna win Ohio.

fetterman may not make it to the election.. watch video of him, he is in bad shape. Oz is not great canidate but fetterman is terrible. If he wins, people arent paying attention or voting against Oz

Vance is gonna win Ohio.

Walker is gonna win GA.

Laxalt is leading in NV, watch that one

Johnson is -4 in WI according to FoX poll but Fox overstated WI polling by 6.5 in 2020.. this is a horse race folks

Just updating. Using 538.com projections

Fetterman remains in the lead, but race is tightening (my perception). Fetterman has 80% chance of winning

Vance continues to lead in Ohio. 72% chance of victory

Warnock narrowly ahead in GA, 538 basically says too close to call. Warnock with 52% chance of victory.

Masto over Laxalt in Nevada, but close. Masto 60% chance of victory

Johnson even with Barnes and has momentum. Johnson with 51% chance of victory.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/

Another update. 538.com projections

Fetterman 52%-45.7. Fetterman has 82% chance of winning.

Vance 51.7-48.3. Vance has 69% chance of winning.

Warnock 49.9 - 48.5. Warnock has 55% chance of winning.

Masto 49.2-47.4. Masto has a 60% chance of winning.

Johnson 50.4-49.6. Johnson has a 55% chance of winning.

Kelly 51.5- 48.4. Kelly has 77% chance of winning.

If the above hold true, Dems pick up 1 seat.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/


trash..

You are welcome


Why?
4th and Inches
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Osodecentx said:

4th and Inches said:

Osodecentx said:

Osodecentx said:

4th and Inches said:

Redbrickbear said:

C. Jordan said:

Looks really good for Dems right now.

They can thank Trump and his promotion of awful candidates: Vance, Oz, and Walker, among others.


I agree with you on Oz…fetterman is gonna win in PA.

But Vance is a good candidate and is gonna win Ohio.

fetterman may not make it to the election.. watch video of him, he is in bad shape. Oz is not great canidate but fetterman is terrible. If he wins, people arent paying attention or voting against Oz

Vance is gonna win Ohio.

Walker is gonna win GA.

Laxalt is leading in NV, watch that one

Johnson is -4 in WI according to FoX poll but Fox overstated WI polling by 6.5 in 2020.. this is a horse race folks

Just updating. Using 538.com projections

Fetterman remains in the lead, but race is tightening (my perception). Fetterman has 80% chance of winning

Vance continues to lead in Ohio. 72% chance of victory

Warnock narrowly ahead in GA, 538 basically says too close to call. Warnock with 52% chance of victory.

Masto over Laxalt in Nevada, but close. Masto 60% chance of victory

Johnson even with Barnes and has momentum. Johnson with 51% chance of victory.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/

Another update. 538.com projections

Fetterman 52%-45.7. Fetterman has 82% chance of winning.

Vance 51.7-48.3. Vance has 69% chance of winning.

Warnock 49.9 - 48.5. Warnock has 55% chance of winning.

Masto 49.2-47.4. Masto has a 60% chance of winning.

Johnson 50.4-49.6. Johnson has a 55% chance of winning.

Kelly 51.5- 48.4. Kelly has 77% chance of winning.

If the above hold true, Dems pick up 1 seat.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/


trash..

You are welcome


Why?


one of the predictive behaviors for an election is primary turnout.. GOP turn out has been way higher than 2018.

Ask yourself "Why are people still releasing registered voter polls after Labor Day?"

Knowing *how* groups are going to vote is less important than predicting *who* will vote.

Throw out every registered voter poll, only use likely voter polls from now until election.
Osodecentx
How long do you want to ignore this user?
4th and Inches said:

Osodecentx said:

4th and Inches said:

Osodecentx said:

Osodecentx said:

4th and Inches said:

Redbrickbear said:

C. Jordan said:

Looks really good for Dems right now.

They can thank Trump and his promotion of awful candidates: Vance, Oz, and Walker, among others.


I agree with you on Oz…fetterman is gonna win in PA.

But Vance is a good candidate and is gonna win Ohio.

fetterman may not make it to the election.. watch video of him, he is in bad shape. Oz is not great canidate but fetterman is terrible. If he wins, people arent paying attention or voting against Oz

Vance is gonna win Ohio.

Walker is gonna win GA.

Laxalt is leading in NV, watch that one

Johnson is -4 in WI according to FoX poll but Fox overstated WI polling by 6.5 in 2020.. this is a horse race folks

Just updating. Using 538.com projections

Fetterman remains in the lead, but race is tightening (my perception). Fetterman has 80% chance of winning

Vance continues to lead in Ohio. 72% chance of victory

Warnock narrowly ahead in GA, 538 basically says too close to call. Warnock with 52% chance of victory.

Masto over Laxalt in Nevada, but close. Masto 60% chance of victory

Johnson even with Barnes and has momentum. Johnson with 51% chance of victory.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/

Another update. 538.com projections

Fetterman 52%-45.7. Fetterman has 82% chance of winning.

Vance 51.7-48.3. Vance has 69% chance of winning.

Warnock 49.9 - 48.5. Warnock has 55% chance of winning.

Masto 49.2-47.4. Masto has a 60% chance of winning.

Johnson 50.4-49.6. Johnson has a 55% chance of winning.

Kelly 51.5- 48.4. Kelly has 77% chance of winning.

If the above hold true, Dems pick up 1 seat.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/


trash..

You are welcome


Why?



Consistent with 538
4th and Inches
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Osodecentx said:

4th and Inches said:

Osodecentx said:

4th and Inches said:

Osodecentx said:

Osodecentx said:

4th and Inches said:

Redbrickbear said:

C. Jordan said:

Looks really good for Dems right now.

They can thank Trump and his promotion of awful candidates: Vance, Oz, and Walker, among others.


I agree with you on Oz…fetterman is gonna win in PA.

But Vance is a good candidate and is gonna win Ohio.

fetterman may not make it to the election.. watch video of him, he is in bad shape. Oz is not great canidate but fetterman is terrible. If he wins, people arent paying attention or voting against Oz

Vance is gonna win Ohio.

Walker is gonna win GA.

Laxalt is leading in NV, watch that one

Johnson is -4 in WI according to FoX poll but Fox overstated WI polling by 6.5 in 2020.. this is a horse race folks

Just updating. Using 538.com projections

Fetterman remains in the lead, but race is tightening (my perception). Fetterman has 80% chance of winning

Vance continues to lead in Ohio. 72% chance of victory

Warnock narrowly ahead in GA, 538 basically says too close to call. Warnock with 52% chance of victory.

Masto over Laxalt in Nevada, but close. Masto 60% chance of victory

Johnson even with Barnes and has momentum. Johnson with 51% chance of victory.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/

Another update. 538.com projections

Fetterman 52%-45.7. Fetterman has 82% chance of winning.

Vance 51.7-48.3. Vance has 69% chance of winning.

Warnock 49.9 - 48.5. Warnock has 55% chance of winning.

Masto 49.2-47.4. Masto has a 60% chance of winning.

Johnson 50.4-49.6. Johnson has a 55% chance of winning.

Kelly 51.5- 48.4. Kelly has 77% chance of winning.

If the above hold true, Dems pick up 1 seat.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/


trash..

You are welcome


Why?



Consistent with 538
I am adding more..
4th and Inches
How long do you want to ignore this user?
this week's RCP average is Seven polls total, four RV, three LV, & one LV has a sample size of 500 for national representation.

This stuff is straight trash.. useless data compiled is still useless data



Rich Baris is one of the most accurate pollsters in the last 3 election cycles(yes, he predicted a Trump loss)
Osodecentx
How long do you want to ignore this user?
4th and Inches said:

Osodecentx said:

4th and Inches said:

Osodecentx said:

4th and Inches said:

Osodecentx said:

Osodecentx said:

4th and Inches said:

Redbrickbear said:

C. Jordan said:

Looks really good for Dems right now.

They can thank Trump and his promotion of awful candidates: Vance, Oz, and Walker, among others.


I agree with you on Oz…fetterman is gonna win in PA.

But Vance is a good candidate and is gonna win Ohio.

fetterman may not make it to the election.. watch video of him, he is in bad shape. Oz is not great canidate but fetterman is terrible. If he wins, people arent paying attention or voting against Oz

Vance is gonna win Ohio.

Walker is gonna win GA.

Laxalt is leading in NV, watch that one

Johnson is -4 in WI according to FoX poll but Fox overstated WI polling by 6.5 in 2020.. this is a horse race folks

Just updating. Using 538.com projections

Fetterman remains in the lead, but race is tightening (my perception). Fetterman has 80% chance of winning

Vance continues to lead in Ohio. 72% chance of victory

Warnock narrowly ahead in GA, 538 basically says too close to call. Warnock with 52% chance of victory.

Masto over Laxalt in Nevada, but close. Masto 60% chance of victory

Johnson even with Barnes and has momentum. Johnson with 51% chance of victory.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/

Another update. 538.com projections

Fetterman 52%-45.7. Fetterman has 82% chance of winning.

Vance 51.7-48.3. Vance has 69% chance of winning.

Warnock 49.9 - 48.5. Warnock has 55% chance of winning.

Masto 49.2-47.4. Masto has a 60% chance of winning.

Johnson 50.4-49.6. Johnson has a 55% chance of winning.

Kelly 51.5- 48.4. Kelly has 77% chance of winning.

If the above hold true, Dems pick up 1 seat.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/


trash..

You are welcome


Why?



Consistent with 538
I am adding more..
I like the trend
4th and Inches
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Osodecentx said:

4th and Inches said:

Osodecentx said:

4th and Inches said:

Osodecentx said:

4th and Inches said:

Osodecentx said:

Osodecentx said:

4th and Inches said:

Redbrickbear said:

C. Jordan said:

Looks really good for Dems right now.

They can thank Trump and his promotion of awful candidates: Vance, Oz, and Walker, among others.


I agree with you on Oz…fetterman is gonna win in PA.

But Vance is a good candidate and is gonna win Ohio.

fetterman may not make it to the election.. watch video of him, he is in bad shape. Oz is not great canidate but fetterman is terrible. If he wins, people arent paying attention or voting against Oz

Vance is gonna win Ohio.

Walker is gonna win GA.

Laxalt is leading in NV, watch that one

Johnson is -4 in WI according to FoX poll but Fox overstated WI polling by 6.5 in 2020.. this is a horse race folks

Just updating. Using 538.com projections

Fetterman remains in the lead, but race is tightening (my perception). Fetterman has 80% chance of winning

Vance continues to lead in Ohio. 72% chance of victory

Warnock narrowly ahead in GA, 538 basically says too close to call. Warnock with 52% chance of victory.

Masto over Laxalt in Nevada, but close. Masto 60% chance of victory

Johnson even with Barnes and has momentum. Johnson with 51% chance of victory.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/

Another update. 538.com projections

Fetterman 52%-45.7. Fetterman has 82% chance of winning.

Vance 51.7-48.3. Vance has 69% chance of winning.

Warnock 49.9 - 48.5. Warnock has 55% chance of winning.

Masto 49.2-47.4. Masto has a 60% chance of winning.

Johnson 50.4-49.6. Johnson has a 55% chance of winning.

Kelly 51.5- 48.4. Kelly has 77% chance of winning.

If the above hold true, Dems pick up 1 seat.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/


trash..

You are welcome


Why?



Consistent with 538
I am adding more..
I like the trend
4th and Inches
How long do you want to ignore this user?
4th and Inches
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Junk poll- registered instead of likely

Ursus Americanus
How long do you want to ignore this user?
4th and Inches said:

Junk poll- registered instead of likely


Yep, Abbott will win by 11 to 15 points.

Patrick win probably close to 10, and Paxton will probably win by more than 5.
Married A Horn
How long do you want to ignore this user?
4th and Inches said:




Biden is so awful it wouldn't surprise me to see 55-45, although I know it is so unlikely.
Married A Horn

Hutto Hippo
Trinity Trojan
Osodecentx
How long do you want to ignore this user?

But Democrats are also benefiting from factors over which they had little control: the public outcry in response to the Supreme Court's overturning of federal abortion rights and the return of former President Donald J. Trump to an attention-commanding presence on the national stage.
4th and Inches
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Osodecentx said:


But Democrats are also benefiting from factors over which they had little control: the public outcry in response to the Supreme Court's overturning of federal abortion rights and the return of former President Donald J. Trump to an attention-commanding presence on the national stage.
lol, no public outcry on abortion.. cant even make top 3 as an issue, most if the time cant make top 5.

Inflation/economy are number 1 and it is a noose around the Dems neck. It is considered number one by almost for times as many people as the number 2 top issue.

Trump is out running the Generic GOP polling in most places, dont see that as helping Dems..
Ursus Americanus
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Osodecentx said:


But Democrats are also benefiting from factors over which they had little control: the public outcry in response to the Supreme Court's overturning of federal abortion rights and the return of former President Donald J. Trump to an attention-commanding presence on the national stage.
That's what the media and twitter bots care about, no one that isn't obsessed with infanticide and Trump 24/7 cares.

Most are concerned about 40 year high inflation, unaffordable housing, 6 percent and rising interest rates, a tanking stock market, a looming railroad strike, etc.
Osodecentx
How long do you want to ignore this user?
4th and Inches said:

Osodecentx said:


But Democrats are also benefiting from factors over which they had little control: the public outcry in response to the Supreme Court's overturning of federal abortion rights and the return of former President Donald J. Trump to an attention-commanding presence on the national stage.

Trump is out running the Generic GOP polling in most places, dont see that as helping Dems..
Trump is giving controversial interviews that take the focus off of Biden. We want Biden to be the focus of attention in the run up to election day

Trump warns of 'big problems' if indicted, says he'd still run for office

Former president Donald Trump warned that if he were indicted on a charge of mishandling classified documents after leaving the White House, there would be "problems in this country the likes of which perhaps we've never seen before."
Trump, speaking Thursday to conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt, added, "I don't think the people of the United States would stand for it."
Hewitt, who is also a contributing columnist for The Washington Post, then noted that critics would describe the comment as inciting violence, and he asked Trump to respond to the claim. "That's not inciting I'm just saying what my opinion is. I don't think the people of this country would stand for it," Trump said.
When pressed by Hewitt, Trump said he thought there would be "big problems, big problems."
Federal agents conducted a court-authorized search of Trump's club and residence Aug. 8, as part of a long-running investigation into whether government documents some of which are classified were being stored at Mar-a-Lago instead of returned to the National Archives.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/09/15/trump-justice-department-investigation-fbi-search/
4th and Inches
How long do you want to ignore this user?
4th and Inches
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Osodecentx said:

4th and Inches said:

Osodecentx said:


But Democrats are also benefiting from factors over which they had little control: the public outcry in response to the Supreme Court's overturning of federal abortion rights and the return of former President Donald J. Trump to an attention-commanding presence on the national stage.

Trump is out running the Generic GOP polling in most places, dont see that as helping Dems..
Trump is giving controversial interviews that take the focus off of Biden. We want Biden to be the focus of attention in the run up to election day

Trump warns of 'big problems' if indicted, says he'd still run for office

Former president Donald Trump warned that if he were indicted on a charge of mishandling classified documents after leaving the White House, there would be "problems in this country the likes of which perhaps we've never seen before."
Trump, speaking Thursday to conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt, added, "I don't think the people of the United States would stand for it."
Hewitt, who is also a contributing columnist for The Washington Post, then noted that critics would describe the comment as inciting violence, and he asked Trump to respond to the claim. "That's not inciting I'm just saying what my opinion is. I don't think the people of this country would stand for it," Trump said.
When pressed by Hewitt, Trump said he thought there would be "big problems, big problems."
Federal agents conducted a court-authorized search of Trump's club and residence Aug. 8, as part of a long-running investigation into whether government documents some of which are classified were being stored at Mar-a-Lago instead of returned to the National Archives.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/09/15/trump-justice-department-investigation-fbi-search/
while that may be a controversial interview, it doesn't take the focus off of Biden. The focus is on Biden every time somebody has to pay a high gas bill, has to pay at the gas pump, has to pay at the grocery store, has struggles to pay the rent or mortgage. All of that is Biden.

All of the stuff that Donald Trump said would happen during the 2020 election, it's happened or is happening. Buyers remorse has set in and people are longing for the days of Donald Trump as president. He is polling better than he ever has in 8 years

If you want to know who's dragging down the GOP's chances in the midterms, look no further than current DC GOP leader ship. They could absolutely be hammering the Dems on these issues but have been relatively silent.

The good news is we have people like Kerrie lake who's most likely going to win Arizona governor and Ron DeSantis who is the current Florida governor that have the guts to stand up and make a national name for themselves among conservatives and could be a future presidential hopeful.
Adriacus Peratuun
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Fetterman is as close as possible to being an incumbent without being an incumbent [high profile statewide official running for Senate].

The fact the he has never hit 50% is very telling. The fact that his lead has shrunk [over the past two months] with every round of polling is telling. The continued sizable uncommitted contingent is telling.

Absent some game changing component, he loses.

4th and Inches
How long do you want to ignore this user?
FormerFlash
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Even liberal media outlets have started to question Fetterman's fitness to serve. He has continued to dodge debate challenges and rarely spoken publicly. When he has, its been a **** show. I feel for the guy recovering from the stroke but that doesn't mean he shouldn't be expected to prove he's capable. He is clearly impaired at this point. The standard has been 2 debates. He has finally relented to do one but pushed it to Oct. 25th. That will be after early voting has began and is right before voting day. My guess is he'll back out of that debate at the last minute. His camp can now claim he has agreed to a debate and will be doing one and by the time he cancels it'll be too late to reschedule. If I were running Oz's campaign, I'd be calling this out and demanding a debate sooner. I'd also be publicly claiming he plans to back out and encouraging those on the fence to cast their vote for Oz if and when Fetterman backs out because it will show them he isn't fit to serve.

The way things are going over there, I won't be surprised when Oz pulls it out. And he should. Serious candidates shouldn't be able to just hide all the way up until election day and still get elected like Biden did.
Sic Everyone.
4th and Inches
How long do you want to ignore this user?
JettRink
How long do you want to ignore this user?
RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

Harrison Bergeron said:

The "media" is giving Fetterman the Biden basement treatment ... ignoring him. Just like in Georgia it's ignoring a wife beater.
I am pulling for the had a stroke, cannot put a cognitive sentence together guy in Pennsylvania. The only way he could get more support from the Dems is if he was dead.

Clown country. Clown World.


The Honorable Judge Ward, we are all so interested in your opinions on political races. Can you remind all of us about the brilliant race you ran for County Judge?
RD2WINAGNBEAR86
How long do you want to ignore this user?
JettRink said:

RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

Harrison Bergeron said:

The "media" is giving Fetterman the Biden basement treatment ... ignoring him. Just like in Georgia it's ignoring a wife beater.
I am pulling for the had a stroke, cannot put a cognitive sentence together guy in Pennsylvania. The only way he could get more support from the Dems is if he was dead.

Clown country. Clown World.


The Honorable Judge Ward, we are all so interested in your opinions on political races. Can you remind all of us about the brilliant race you ran for County Judge?
Holy Moses! I thought you were in a nursing home or dead. Glad you are still on the right side of the grass, Buddy!
"Never underestimate Joe's ability to **** things up!"

-- Barack Obama
whiterock
How long do you want to ignore this user?
4th and Inches said:

Osodecentx said:


But Democrats are also benefiting from factors over which they had little control: the public outcry in response to the Supreme Court's overturning of federal abortion rights and the return of former President Donald J. Trump to an attention-commanding presence on the national stage.
lol, no public outcry on abortion.. cant even make top 3 as an issue, most if the time cant make top 5.

Inflation/economy are number 1 and it is a noose around the Dems neck. It is considered number one by almost for times as many people as the number 2 top issue.

Trump is out running the Generic GOP polling in most places, dont see that as helping Dems..
but, but, but...there are 30 people demonstrating in Amy Coney Barrett's front yard!

Women are up in arms, I tell you !!!!
whiterock
How long do you want to ignore this user?
4th and Inches said:


compare that to the generic Congressional ballot poll a few posted up, where GOP is +3 in PA.

So, yes, OZ is trailing the generic GOP ballot.
But he's moving up.
The base will come home.
OZ should win.

That said, the race will be close and it's an open question whether OZ can pull ahead enough to clear the margin of fraud coming out of Philly (2pts worth).
whiterock
How long do you want to ignore this user?
4th and Inches said:

Osodecentx said:

4th and Inches said:

Osodecentx said:


But Democrats are also benefiting from factors over which they had little control: the public outcry in response to the Supreme Court's overturning of federal abortion rights and the return of former President Donald J. Trump to an attention-commanding presence on the national stage.

Trump is out running the Generic GOP polling in most places, dont see that as helping Dems..
Trump is giving controversial interviews that take the focus off of Biden. We want Biden to be the focus of attention in the run up to election day

Trump warns of 'big problems' if indicted, says he'd still run for office

Former president Donald Trump warned that if he were indicted on a charge of mishandling classified documents after leaving the White House, there would be "problems in this country the likes of which perhaps we've never seen before."
Trump, speaking Thursday to conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt, added, "I don't think the people of the United States would stand for it."
Hewitt, who is also a contributing columnist for The Washington Post, then noted that critics would describe the comment as inciting violence, and he asked Trump to respond to the claim. "That's not inciting I'm just saying what my opinion is. I don't think the people of this country would stand for it," Trump said.
When pressed by Hewitt, Trump said he thought there would be "big problems, big problems."
Federal agents conducted a court-authorized search of Trump's club and residence Aug. 8, as part of a long-running investigation into whether government documents some of which are classified were being stored at Mar-a-Lago instead of returned to the National Archives.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/09/15/trump-justice-department-investigation-fbi-search/
while that may be a controversial interview, it doesn't take the focus off of Biden. The focus is on Biden every time somebody has to pay a high gas bill, has to pay at the gas pump, has to pay at the grocery store, has struggles to pay the rent or mortgage. All of that is Biden.

All of the stuff that Donald Trump said would happen during the 2020 election, it's happened or is happening. Buyers remorse has set in and people are longing for the days of Donald Trump as president. He is polling better than he ever has in 8 years

If you want to know who's dragging down the GOP's chances in the midterms, look no further than current DC GOP leader ship. They could absolutely be hammering the Dems on these issues but have been relatively silent.

The good news is we have people like Kerrie lake who's most likely going to win Arizona governor and Ron DeSantis who is the current Florida governor that have the guts to stand up and make a national name for themselves among conservatives and could be a future presidential hopeful.
The error in Oso's post is that he's blaming Trump for the "Trump distraction."

In reality, it's the Democrats who are responsible for Trump being a distraction. Trump is purposely waiting to declare for 2024 in order to NOT be the issue on the ballot, while Dems are going max effort to make the mid-terms a referendum on Trump rather than Biden.

That will definitely help the Dems. But not as much as many suppose. As noted in other polling, Trump is outpacing the generic ballot, so he's a net positive to the GOP. But Biden is a far, far worse negative to the Dems. So getting Trump on the ballot is a very marginal benefit, at best will save a few seats, a slightly less awful outcome in an otherwise dreadful cycle for the Dems.
Osodecentx
How long do you want to ignore this user?
whiterock said:

4th and Inches said:

Osodecentx said:

4th and Inches said:

Osodecentx said:


But Democrats are also benefiting from factors over which they had little control: the public outcry in response to the Supreme Court's overturning of federal abortion rights and the return of former President Donald J. Trump to an attention-commanding presence on the national stage.

Trump is out running the Generic GOP polling in most places, dont see that as helping Dems..
Trump is giving controversial interviews that take the focus off of Biden. We want Biden to be the focus of attention in the run up to election day

Trump warns of 'big problems' if indicted, says he'd still run for office

Former president Donald Trump warned that if he were indicted on a charge of mishandling classified documents after leaving the White House, there would be "problems in this country the likes of which perhaps we've never seen before."
Trump, speaking Thursday to conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt, added, "I don't think the people of the United States would stand for it."
Hewitt, who is also a contributing columnist for The Washington Post, then noted that critics would describe the comment as inciting violence, and he asked Trump to respond to the claim. "That's not inciting I'm just saying what my opinion is. I don't think the people of this country would stand for it," Trump said.
When pressed by Hewitt, Trump said he thought there would be "big problems, big problems."
Federal agents conducted a court-authorized search of Trump's club and residence Aug. 8, as part of a long-running investigation into whether government documents some of which are classified were being stored at Mar-a-Lago instead of returned to the National Archives.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/09/15/trump-justice-department-investigation-fbi-search/
while that may be a controversial interview, it doesn't take the focus off of Biden. The focus is on Biden every time somebody has to pay a high gas bill, has to pay at the gas pump, has to pay at the grocery store, has struggles to pay the rent or mortgage. All of that is Biden.

All of the stuff that Donald Trump said would happen during the 2020 election, it's happened or is happening. Buyers remorse has set in and people are longing for the days of Donald Trump as president. He is polling better than he ever has in 8 years

If you want to know who's dragging down the GOP's chances in the midterms, look no further than current DC GOP leader ship. They could absolutely be hammering the Dems on these issues but have been relatively silent.

The good news is we have people like Kerrie lake who's most likely going to win Arizona governor and Ron DeSantis who is the current Florida governor that have the guts to stand up and make a national name for themselves among conservatives and could be a future presidential hopeful.
The error in Oso's post is that he's blaming Trump for the "Trump distraction."

In reality, it's the Democrats who are responsible for Trump being a distraction. Trump is purposely waiting to declare for 2024 in order to NOT be the issue on the ballot, while Dems are going max effort to make the mid-terms a referendum on Trump rather than Biden.

That will definitely help the Dems. But not as much as many suppose. As noted in other polling, Trump is outpacing the generic ballot, so he's a net positive to the GOP. But Biden is a far, far worse negative to the Dems. So getting Trump on the ballot is a very marginal benefit, at best will save a few seats, a slightly less awful outcome in an otherwise dreadful cycle for the Dems.
Of course the Dems are doing everything they can to distract from Biden. When we talk about Trump we are playing into their hands. As you say, Biden is a negative for Dems, so let's keep him front and center.

Trump is not a net positive. If he were we'd be asking him to speak daily. Trump cost us 2 senate seats in Georgia and 2 in Az. That's a fact.
4th and Inches
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Osodecentx said:

whiterock said:

4th and Inches said:

Osodecentx said:

4th and Inches said:

Osodecentx said:


But Democrats are also benefiting from factors over which they had little control: the public outcry in response to the Supreme Court's overturning of federal abortion rights and the return of former President Donald J. Trump to an attention-commanding presence on the national stage.

Trump is out running the Generic GOP polling in most places, dont see that as helping Dems..
Trump is giving controversial interviews that take the focus off of Biden. We want Biden to be the focus of attention in the run up to election day

Trump warns of 'big problems' if indicted, says he'd still run for office

Former president Donald Trump warned that if he were indicted on a charge of mishandling classified documents after leaving the White House, there would be "problems in this country the likes of which perhaps we've never seen before."
Trump, speaking Thursday to conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt, added, "I don't think the people of the United States would stand for it."
Hewitt, who is also a contributing columnist for The Washington Post, then noted that critics would describe the comment as inciting violence, and he asked Trump to respond to the claim. "That's not inciting I'm just saying what my opinion is. I don't think the people of this country would stand for it," Trump said.
When pressed by Hewitt, Trump said he thought there would be "big problems, big problems."
Federal agents conducted a court-authorized search of Trump's club and residence Aug. 8, as part of a long-running investigation into whether government documents some of which are classified were being stored at Mar-a-Lago instead of returned to the National Archives.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/09/15/trump-justice-department-investigation-fbi-search/
while that may be a controversial interview, it doesn't take the focus off of Biden. The focus is on Biden every time somebody has to pay a high gas bill, has to pay at the gas pump, has to pay at the grocery store, has struggles to pay the rent or mortgage. All of that is Biden.

All of the stuff that Donald Trump said would happen during the 2020 election, it's happened or is happening. Buyers remorse has set in and people are longing for the days of Donald Trump as president. He is polling better than he ever has in 8 years

If you want to know who's dragging down the GOP's chances in the midterms, look no further than current DC GOP leader ship. They could absolutely be hammering the Dems on these issues but have been relatively silent.

The good news is we have people like Kerrie lake who's most likely going to win Arizona governor and Ron DeSantis who is the current Florida governor that have the guts to stand up and make a national name for themselves among conservatives and could be a future presidential hopeful.
The error in Oso's post is that he's blaming Trump for the "Trump distraction."

In reality, it's the Democrats who are responsible for Trump being a distraction. Trump is purposely waiting to declare for 2024 in order to NOT be the issue on the ballot, while Dems are going max effort to make the mid-terms a referendum on Trump rather than Biden.

That will definitely help the Dems. But not as much as many suppose. As noted in other polling, Trump is outpacing the generic ballot, so he's a net positive to the GOP. But Biden is a far, far worse negative to the Dems. So getting Trump on the ballot is a very marginal benefit, at best will save a few seats, a slightly less awful outcome in an otherwise dreadful cycle for the Dems.
Of course the Dems are doing everything they can to distract from Biden. When we talk about Trump we are playing into their hands. As you say, Biden is a negative for Dems, so let's keep him front and center.

Trump is not a net positive. If he were we'd be asking him to speak daily. Trump cost us 2 senate seats in Georgia and 2 in Az. That's a fact.
nope..

He is the only one doing the talking. Your GOP arguement is with DC leadership and RNC leadership. Their failure to support all the GOP canidates on the general ballot in these flip states is very telling
whiterock
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Osodecentx said:

whiterock said:

4th and Inches said:

Osodecentx said:

4th and Inches said:

Osodecentx said:


But Democrats are also benefiting from factors over which they had little control: the public outcry in response to the Supreme Court's overturning of federal abortion rights and the return of former President Donald J. Trump to an attention-commanding presence on the national stage.

Trump is out running the Generic GOP polling in most places, dont see that as helping Dems..
Trump is giving controversial interviews that take the focus off of Biden. We want Biden to be the focus of attention in the run up to election day

Trump warns of 'big problems' if indicted, says he'd still run for office

Former president Donald Trump warned that if he were indicted on a charge of mishandling classified documents after leaving the White House, there would be "problems in this country the likes of which perhaps we've never seen before."
Trump, speaking Thursday to conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt, added, "I don't think the people of the United States would stand for it."
Hewitt, who is also a contributing columnist for The Washington Post, then noted that critics would describe the comment as inciting violence, and he asked Trump to respond to the claim. "That's not inciting I'm just saying what my opinion is. I don't think the people of this country would stand for it," Trump said.
When pressed by Hewitt, Trump said he thought there would be "big problems, big problems."
Federal agents conducted a court-authorized search of Trump's club and residence Aug. 8, as part of a long-running investigation into whether government documents some of which are classified were being stored at Mar-a-Lago instead of returned to the National Archives.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/09/15/trump-justice-department-investigation-fbi-search/
while that may be a controversial interview, it doesn't take the focus off of Biden. The focus is on Biden every time somebody has to pay a high gas bill, has to pay at the gas pump, has to pay at the grocery store, has struggles to pay the rent or mortgage. All of that is Biden.

All of the stuff that Donald Trump said would happen during the 2020 election, it's happened or is happening. Buyers remorse has set in and people are longing for the days of Donald Trump as president. He is polling better than he ever has in 8 years

If you want to know who's dragging down the GOP's chances in the midterms, look no further than current DC GOP leader ship. They could absolutely be hammering the Dems on these issues but have been relatively silent.

The good news is we have people like Kerrie lake who's most likely going to win Arizona governor and Ron DeSantis who is the current Florida governor that have the guts to stand up and make a national name for themselves among conservatives and could be a future presidential hopeful.
The error in Oso's post is that he's blaming Trump for the "Trump distraction."

In reality, it's the Democrats who are responsible for Trump being a distraction. Trump is purposely waiting to declare for 2024 in order to NOT be the issue on the ballot, while Dems are going max effort to make the mid-terms a referendum on Trump rather than Biden.

That will definitely help the Dems. But not as much as many suppose. As noted in other polling, Trump is outpacing the generic ballot, so he's a net positive to the GOP. But Biden is a far, far worse negative to the Dems. So getting Trump on the ballot is a very marginal benefit, at best will save a few seats, a slightly less awful outcome in an otherwise dreadful cycle for the Dems.
Of course the Dems are doing everything they can to distract from Biden. When we talk about Trump we are playing into their hands. As you say, Biden is a negative for Dems, so let's keep him front and center.

Trump is not a net positive. If he were we'd be asking him to speak daily. Trump cost us 2 senate seats in Georgia and 2 in Az. That's a fact. (you need that to be true, but it isn't.)
Trump is not playing into their hands. He's defending himself as he should. Your unserious argument presumes that he has a duty to hunker down and let events play out without any public comment or defense. Reality is Dems attacked him, because they knew he would have to respond. They are picking the fight. He did not. Let us repeat that. Trump did not pick this fight. Democrats did.

Trump's endorsed candidate and long-time personal friend is going to win that Senate seat in GA. Are you going to give Trump credit for winning that one?
Osodecentx
How long do you want to ignore this user?
whiterock said:

Osodecentx said:

whiterock said:

4th and Inches said:

Osodecentx said:

4th and Inches said:

Osodecentx said:


But Democrats are also benefiting from factors over which they had little control: the public outcry in response to the Supreme Court's overturning of federal abortion rights and the return of former President Donald J. Trump to an attention-commanding presence on the national stage.

Trump is out running the Generic GOP polling in most places, dont see that as helping Dems..
Trump is giving controversial interviews that take the focus off of Biden. We want Biden to be the focus of attention in the run up to election day

Trump warns of 'big problems' if indicted, says he'd still run for office

Former president Donald Trump warned that if he were indicted on a charge of mishandling classified documents after leaving the White House, there would be "problems in this country the likes of which perhaps we've never seen before."
Trump, speaking Thursday to conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt, added, "I don't think the people of the United States would stand for it."
Hewitt, who is also a contributing columnist for The Washington Post, then noted that critics would describe the comment as inciting violence, and he asked Trump to respond to the claim. "That's not inciting I'm just saying what my opinion is. I don't think the people of this country would stand for it," Trump said.
When pressed by Hewitt, Trump said he thought there would be "big problems, big problems."
Federal agents conducted a court-authorized search of Trump's club and residence Aug. 8, as part of a long-running investigation into whether government documents some of which are classified were being stored at Mar-a-Lago instead of returned to the National Archives.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/09/15/trump-justice-department-investigation-fbi-search/
while that may be a controversial interview, it doesn't take the focus off of Biden. The focus is on Biden every time somebody has to pay a high gas bill, has to pay at the gas pump, has to pay at the grocery store, has struggles to pay the rent or mortgage. All of that is Biden.

All of the stuff that Donald Trump said would happen during the 2020 election, it's happened or is happening. Buyers remorse has set in and people are longing for the days of Donald Trump as president. He is polling better than he ever has in 8 years

If you want to know who's dragging down the GOP's chances in the midterms, look no further than current DC GOP leader ship. They could absolutely be hammering the Dems on these issues but have been relatively silent.

The good news is we have people like Kerrie lake who's most likely going to win Arizona governor and Ron DeSantis who is the current Florida governor that have the guts to stand up and make a national name for themselves among conservatives and could be a future presidential hopeful.
The error in Oso's post is that he's blaming Trump for the "Trump distraction."

In reality, it's the Democrats who are responsible for Trump being a distraction. Trump is purposely waiting to declare for 2024 in order to NOT be the issue on the ballot, while Dems are going max effort to make the mid-terms a referendum on Trump rather than Biden.

That will definitely help the Dems. But not as much as many suppose. As noted in other polling, Trump is outpacing the generic ballot, so he's a net positive to the GOP. But Biden is a far, far worse negative to the Dems. So getting Trump on the ballot is a very marginal benefit, at best will save a few seats, a slightly less awful outcome in an otherwise dreadful cycle for the Dems.
Of course the Dems are doing everything they can to distract from Biden. When we talk about Trump we are playing into their hands. As you say, Biden is a negative for Dems, so let's keep him front and center.

Trump is not a net positive. If he were we'd be asking him to speak daily. Trump cost us 2 senate seats in Georgia and 2 in Az. That's a fact. (you need that to be true, but it isn't.)
Trump is not playing into their hands. He's defending himself as he should. Your unserious argument presumes that he has a duty to hunker down and let events play out without any public comment or defense. Reality is Dems attacked him, because they knew he would have to respond. They are picking the fight. He did not. Let us repeat that. Trump did not pick this fight. Democrats did.

Trump's endorsed candidate and long-time personal friend is going to win that Senate seat in GA. Are you going to give Trump credit for winning that one?
Great. Let's put Trump out front. You and Schumer/Pelosi/Biden are in agreement. Wonder why Dems want Trump out front?

Will you blame Trump if his selected candidates don't win? Looks like you're trying to blame DC Republicans for their coming losses. If they win, Trump did it; if they lose Mitch did it
Osodecentx
How long do you want to ignore this user?
4th and Inches said:

Osodecentx said:

whiterock said:

4th and Inches said:

Osodecentx said:

4th and Inches said:

Osodecentx said:


But Democrats are also benefiting from factors over which they had little control: the public outcry in response to the Supreme Court's overturning of federal abortion rights and the return of former President Donald J. Trump to an attention-commanding presence on the national stage.

Trump is out running the Generic GOP polling in most places, dont see that as helping Dems..
Trump is giving controversial interviews that take the focus off of Biden. We want Biden to be the focus of attention in the run up to election day

Trump warns of 'big problems' if indicted, says he'd still run for office

Former president Donald Trump warned that if he were indicted on a charge of mishandling classified documents after leaving the White House, there would be "problems in this country the likes of which perhaps we've never seen before."
Trump, speaking Thursday to conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt, added, "I don't think the people of the United States would stand for it."
Hewitt, who is also a contributing columnist for The Washington Post, then noted that critics would describe the comment as inciting violence, and he asked Trump to respond to the claim. "That's not inciting I'm just saying what my opinion is. I don't think the people of this country would stand for it," Trump said.
When pressed by Hewitt, Trump said he thought there would be "big problems, big problems."
Federal agents conducted a court-authorized search of Trump's club and residence Aug. 8, as part of a long-running investigation into whether government documents some of which are classified were being stored at Mar-a-Lago instead of returned to the National Archives.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/09/15/trump-justice-department-investigation-fbi-search/
while that may be a controversial interview, it doesn't take the focus off of Biden. The focus is on Biden every time somebody has to pay a high gas bill, has to pay at the gas pump, has to pay at the grocery store, has struggles to pay the rent or mortgage. All of that is Biden.

All of the stuff that Donald Trump said would happen during the 2020 election, it's happened or is happening. Buyers remorse has set in and people are longing for the days of Donald Trump as president. He is polling better than he ever has in 8 years

If you want to know who's dragging down the GOP's chances in the midterms, look no further than current DC GOP leader ship. They could absolutely be hammering the Dems on these issues but have been relatively silent.

The good news is we have people like Kerrie lake who's most likely going to win Arizona governor and Ron DeSantis who is the current Florida governor that have the guts to stand up and make a national name for themselves among conservatives and could be a future presidential hopeful.
The error in Oso's post is that he's blaming Trump for the "Trump distraction."

In reality, it's the Democrats who are responsible for Trump being a distraction. Trump is purposely waiting to declare for 2024 in order to NOT be the issue on the ballot, while Dems are going max effort to make the mid-terms a referendum on Trump rather than Biden.

That will definitely help the Dems. But not as much as many suppose. As noted in other polling, Trump is outpacing the generic ballot, so he's a net positive to the GOP. But Biden is a far, far worse negative to the Dems. So getting Trump on the ballot is a very marginal benefit, at best will save a few seats, a slightly less awful outcome in an otherwise dreadful cycle for the Dems.
Of course the Dems are doing everything they can to distract from Biden. When we talk about Trump we are playing into their hands. As you say, Biden is a negative for Dems, so let's keep him front and center.

Trump is not a net positive. If he were we'd be asking him to speak daily. Trump cost us 2 senate seats in Georgia and 2 in Az. That's a fact.
nope..

He is the only one doing the talking. Your GOP arguement is with DC leadership and RNC leadership. Their failure to support all the GOP canidates on the general ballot in these flip states is very telling
Trump and Thiel get them nominated and it's Mitch's fault if they lose? Trump is sitting on $99 million political fund. Thiel gave $15 million to the Az candidate and now won't support him. You break it, you own it.
4th and Inches
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Osodecentx said:

4th and Inches said:

Osodecentx said:

whiterock said:

4th and Inches said:

Osodecentx said:

4th and Inches said:

Osodecentx said:


But Democrats are also benefiting from factors over which they had little control: the public outcry in response to the Supreme Court's overturning of federal abortion rights and the return of former President Donald J. Trump to an attention-commanding presence on the national stage.

Trump is out running the Generic GOP polling in most places, dont see that as helping Dems..
Trump is giving controversial interviews that take the focus off of Biden. We want Biden to be the focus of attention in the run up to election day

Trump warns of 'big problems' if indicted, says he'd still run for office

Former president Donald Trump warned that if he were indicted on a charge of mishandling classified documents after leaving the White House, there would be "problems in this country the likes of which perhaps we've never seen before."
Trump, speaking Thursday to conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt, added, "I don't think the people of the United States would stand for it."
Hewitt, who is also a contributing columnist for The Washington Post, then noted that critics would describe the comment as inciting violence, and he asked Trump to respond to the claim. "That's not inciting I'm just saying what my opinion is. I don't think the people of this country would stand for it," Trump said.
When pressed by Hewitt, Trump said he thought there would be "big problems, big problems."
Federal agents conducted a court-authorized search of Trump's club and residence Aug. 8, as part of a long-running investigation into whether government documents some of which are classified were being stored at Mar-a-Lago instead of returned to the National Archives.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/09/15/trump-justice-department-investigation-fbi-search/
while that may be a controversial interview, it doesn't take the focus off of Biden. The focus is on Biden every time somebody has to pay a high gas bill, has to pay at the gas pump, has to pay at the grocery store, has struggles to pay the rent or mortgage. All of that is Biden.

All of the stuff that Donald Trump said would happen during the 2020 election, it's happened or is happening. Buyers remorse has set in and people are longing for the days of Donald Trump as president. He is polling better than he ever has in 8 years

If you want to know who's dragging down the GOP's chances in the midterms, look no further than current DC GOP leader ship. They could absolutely be hammering the Dems on these issues but have been relatively silent.

The good news is we have people like Kerrie lake who's most likely going to win Arizona governor and Ron DeSantis who is the current Florida governor that have the guts to stand up and make a national name for themselves among conservatives and could be a future presidential hopeful.
The error in Oso's post is that he's blaming Trump for the "Trump distraction."

In reality, it's the Democrats who are responsible for Trump being a distraction. Trump is purposely waiting to declare for 2024 in order to NOT be the issue on the ballot, while Dems are going max effort to make the mid-terms a referendum on Trump rather than Biden.

That will definitely help the Dems. But not as much as many suppose. As noted in other polling, Trump is outpacing the generic ballot, so he's a net positive to the GOP. But Biden is a far, far worse negative to the Dems. So getting Trump on the ballot is a very marginal benefit, at best will save a few seats, a slightly less awful outcome in an otherwise dreadful cycle for the Dems.
Of course the Dems are doing everything they can to distract from Biden. When we talk about Trump we are playing into their hands. As you say, Biden is a negative for Dems, so let's keep him front and center.

Trump is not a net positive. If he were we'd be asking him to speak daily. Trump cost us 2 senate seats in Georgia and 2 in Az. That's a fact.
nope..

He is the only one doing the talking. Your GOP arguement is with DC leadership and RNC leadership. Their failure to support all the GOP canidates on the general ballot in these flip states is very telling
Trump and Thiel get them nominated and it's Mitch's fault if they lose? Trump is sitting on $99 million political fund. Thiel gave $15 million to the Az candidate and now won't support him. You break it, you own it.
sometimes things besides money have value..

There isnt enough written words/ sound bites type support coming out of washington and you know it..

We should be attacking failures at the border and the economy. Easy to do and will make a difference in AZ, PA, etc
Cobretti
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Osodecentx
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Cobretti said:


This seems right
 
×
subscribe Verify your student status
See Subscription Benefits
Trial only available to users who have never subscribed or participated in a previous trial.