Osodecentx said:
whiterock said:
4th and Inches said:
With 6.2% undecided and likely to break 3-1 against the incumbent....... may have to up the GOP gain prediction by a seat.
Hope this is right. Where does the 3-1 undecideds breaking against the incumbent come from? Is it well established, your guess, or something specific to that race.
James Carville: "The incumbent gets his final number."
An incumbent at 42% with 20pts undecided (see link below) is a dead man walking. Those undecideds know who he is. Many of them voted for him last election. He is going to LOSE the undecided vote, by a good margin. His only hope is to try to get them not to vote at all. You do that by going hard negative. Independent voters in particular hate negative campaigning and are easier to drive into the "did not vote" category. It's the partisans that get fired up by a bloody/nasty fight.
Now, one can ask reasonable questions about the universe of the foregoing poll. Posted more for illustration.
Basically, any incumbent below 50 could lose. An incumbent that falls below 48 should lose. An incumbent below 46 is on death watch. The bigger the undecided pool is, the worse his situation. Because an unpopular incumbent (meaning polling below 50) cannot count on independents to win. Has to turn the race into a base election. And Dems are lagging in enthusiasm.
It's been shaping up like this all along.
