Watching the races that dont have a Trump endorsed GOP in them tells me that the GOP does in fact have a Trump problem.. turn out levels and Trump endorsements are definitely related.

Trump endorsed canidates have massive turnout numbers compared to those without an endorsement.

4th and Inches said:

---

Watching the races that dont have a Trump endorsed GOP in them tells me that the GOP does in fact have a Trump problem.. turn out levels and Trump endorsements are definitely related.

Trump endorsed canidates have massive turnout numbers compared to those without an endorsement.

---

which is a material factor in the polling averages showing an inexplicable blue trend the last 7-10 days.

Polling is all about the universe. WHO are you polling. WHO is going to vote. The only way to guess that weeks/months out from an election is looking at prior turnout models. As the election approaches, pollsters get a better sense for who is more energized to vote....so the polls tend to tighten.

AP has noted the not just terrible but historically horrible macro-environment Dems are facing. That provides inexorable drag on their prospects.....their record is just terrible. All they can hope for is distraction....to get the population fired up about something else that will move enough people back over to their side to keep things competitive-ish. That is why no sober analyst could ignore the possibility that the MAL raid might be pure politics of the cycle, and that after the election, the DOJ announces "no charges."

If a scenario like that plays out, we will know why.

And the positive turnout we see with the Trump-endorsed candidates, though, is pretty easy to understand. He's drawing new voters out of the woodworks. And the numbers of those new voters dwarf the neverTrumper Republicans.

whiterock said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

Watching the races that dont have a Trump endorsed GOP in them tells me that the GOP does in fact have a Trump problem.. turn out levels and Trump endorsements are definitely related.

Trump endorsed canidates have massive turnout numbers compared to those without an endorsement.

---

which is a material factor in the polling averages showing an inexplicable blue trend the last 7-10 days.

Polling is all about the universe. WHO are you polling. WHO is going to vote. The only way to guess that weeks/months out from an election is looking at prior turnout models. As the election approaches, pollsters get a better sense for who is more energized to vote....so the polls tend to tighten.

AP has noted the not just terrible but historically horrible macro-environment Dems are facing. That provides inexorable drag on their prospects.....their record is just terrible. All they can hope for is distraction....to get the population fired up about something else that will move enough people back over to their side to keep things competitive-ish. That is why no sober analyst could ignore the possibility that the MAL raid might be pure politics of the cycle, and that after the election, the DOJ announces "no charges."

If a scenario like that plays out, we will know why.

And the positive turnout we see with the Trump-endorsed candidates, though, is pretty easy to understand. He's drawing new voters out of the woodworks. And the numbers of those new voters dwarf the neverTrumper Republicans.

---

Trump has bouts of political savvy overwhelmed by ego-driven destruction and stupidity. If he had a bigger sense of the greater good, who would have risen above endorsements and rather used his skills to build Republican momentum generally without specific endorsements. But like Georgia, too late now.

6 weeks to keep adding votes*

Forest Bueller_bf said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

Osodecentx said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

---

C. Jordan said:

---

Looks really good for Dems right now.

They can thank Trump and his promotion of awful candidates: Vance, Oz, and Walker, among others.

---

I agree with you on Oz…fetterman is gonna win in PA.

But Vance is a good candidate and is gonna win Ohio.

---

fetterman may not make it to the election.. watch video of him, he is in bad shape. Oz is not great canidate but fetterman is terrible. If he wins, people arent paying attention or voting against Oz Fetterman is bad, Oz is worse. Republicans lose a seat.

Vance is gonna win Ohio.I hope so, I like him. If he wins, Republicans hold a seat they have

Walker is gonna win GA. Nope, Republicans really need to pick up a seat somewhere. I thought this would be easy

Laxalt is leading in NV, watch that one. I think you're right. Republicans flip a seat.

Johnson is -4 in WI according to FoX poll but Fox overstated WI polling by 6.5 in 2020.. this is a horse race folks. I hope you're right. If you are right, Republicans hold a seat.

---

Republicans have a decent shot to pick up that Nevada senate seat. I thought we would pick up Arizona until Trump endorsed a loser.

If everything goes right, Republicanshave 50 senators. BTW, Ohio and Wisconsin are a problem.

Advantage Schumer

---

even 538 shows Walker leading in GA.. dont get so down on this one yet.

Dont look at any driveby media polls, they are done for news and have a really bad track record. They are over sampling Dems consistently.

🚨NEW #PASEN POLL SHOWS INCREDIBLY TIGHT RACE🚨@DrOz 45.9%@JohnFetterman 46.3%
Others: 4.5%
Undecided: 3.3%

Conducted 8/15-8/19, 2,800 Likely Voters

Carleton was the most accurate Senate internal in 2020. Consider giving us a follow to support our new public polling journey.

— Carleton Polling (PARODY) (@CarletonPolling) August 20, 2022

OZ is gaining ground.. same pollster had him down 2.6% a month ago

---

Just saw a youtube video of Fetterman for the first time, dang.

Oz is a bad candidate but dang, can you not get more votes than that dude.

---

Fetterman would be running away with the race if he was all there mentally and if he would move just a little to the right on social issues. Play to the Blue Dog Democrats & Reagan Republican in the center part of the State. Come out at least a little bit against abortion and for protecting gun rights.

Oz has the Mitt Romney thing going against him. He (like Romney) reminds working class people in Pennsylvania of the jerk off rich guys who outsourced their jobs and laid them off.

whiterock said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

Watching the races that dont have a Trump endorsed GOP in them tells me that the GOP does in fact have a Trump problem.. turn out levels and Trump endorsements are definitely related.

Trump endorsed canidates have massive turnout numbers compared to those without an endorsement.

---

which is a material factor in the polling averages showing an inexplicable blue trend the last 7-10 days.

Polling is all about the universe. WHO are you polling. WHO is going to vote. The only way to guess that weeks/months out from an election is looking at prior turnout models. As the election approaches, pollsters get a better sense for who is more energized to vote....so the polls tend to tighten.

AP has noted the not just terrible but historically horrible macro-environment Dems are facing. That provides inexorable drag on their prospects.....their record is just terrible. All they can hope for is distraction....to get the population fired up about something else that will move enough people back over to their side to keep things competitive-ish. That is why no sober analyst could ignore the possibility that the MAL raid might be pure politics of the cycle, and that after the election, the DOJ announces "no charges."

If a scenario like that plays out, we will know why.

And the positive turnout we see with the Trump-endorsed candidates, though, is pretty easy to understand. He's drawing new voters out of the woodworks. And the numbers of those new voters dwarf the neverTrumper Republicans.

---

538 average of polls has Fetterman ahead by 10.8%
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2022/pennsylvania/

RCP average of polls has Fetterman ahead by 7.5% as of Sunday
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/pa/pennsylvania_senate_oz_vs_fetterman-7695.html

C. Jordan said:

---

Looks really good for Dems right now.

They can thank Trump and his promotion of awful candidates: Vance, Oz, and Walker, among others.

---

Get the jelly ready.

Fool.

Osodecentx said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

Johnny Bear said:

---

Good 'ole establishment Mitch McConnell is a big problem for the GOP.

---

Understatement of the week .


The old fool is showing zero leadership ability.


His recent comments were incredibly damaging .

---

Trump helped him win re-election and here we are.. he is lifting his skirt for the Dems. Cocaine Mitch needs to be retired from leadership.

---

McConnell gave us Justice Barrett and kept Merrick Garland from being a Justice.
McConnell got more votes in Kentucky than Trump

---

That's not true. Trump got more votes than McConnell

Rawhide said:

---

Osodecentx said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

Johnny Bear said:

---

Good 'ole establishment Mitch McConnell is a big problem for the GOP.

---

Understatement of the week .


The old fool is showing zero leadership ability.


His recent comments were incredibly damaging .

---

Trump helped him win re-election and here we are.. he is lifting his skirt for the Dems. Cocaine Mitch needs to be retired from leadership.

---

McConnell gave us Justice Barrett and kept Merrick Garland from being a Justice.
McConnell got more votes in Kentucky than Trump

---

That's not true. Trump got more votes than McConnell

---

You're right. Sorry

Osodecentx said:

---

whiterock said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

Watching the races that dont have a Trump endorsed GOP in them tells me that the GOP does in fact have a Trump problem.. turn out levels and Trump endorsements are definitely related.

Trump endorsed canidates have massive turnout numbers compared to those without an endorsement.

---

which is a material factor in the polling averages showing an inexplicable blue trend the last 7-10 days.

Polling is all about the universe. WHO are you polling. WHO is going to vote. The only way to guess that weeks/months out from an election is looking at prior turnout models. As the election approaches, pollsters get a better sense for who is more energized to vote....so the polls tend to tighten.

AP has noted the not just terrible but historically horrible macro-environment Dems are facing. That provides inexorable drag on their prospects.....their record is just terrible. All they can hope for is distraction....to get the population fired up about something else that will move enough people back over to their side to keep things competitive-ish. That is why no sober analyst could ignore the possibility that the MAL raid might be pure politics of the cycle, and that after the election, the DOJ announces "no charges."

If a scenario like that plays out, we will know why.

And the positive turnout we see with the Trump-endorsed candidates, though, is pretty easy to understand. He's drawing new voters out of the woodworks. And the numbers of those new voters dwarf the neverTrumper Republicans.

---

538 average of polls has Fetterman ahead by 10.8%
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2022/pennsylvania/

RCP average of polls has Fetterman ahead by 7.5% as of Sunday
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/pa/pennsylvania_senate_oz_vs_fetterman-7695.html

---

both suck.. either they will tighten up as we get closer to election day or they will look stupid again.

C. Jordan said:

---

Looks really good for Dems right now.

They can thank Trump and his promotion of awful candidates: Vance, Oz, and Walker, among others.

---

From what I've read (and correct me if im wrong, but I think this came from a Republican candidate who failed to get his endorsement) getting Trumps endorsement is entirely about giving him money and someone from his staff a high paying job for a certain amount of time, whilst certainly not unique, it seems a guarantee that he is going to end up endorsing a lot of Rich idiots, which wont end up looking good for him and cant be a great outcome for anyone except Trumps bank account

Osodecentx said:

---

GOP is cutting ads in Penn, Az & Wisconsin. That would mean 2 pick ups for Dems. I'm not seeing 3 Republican pick ups in states left in play.

In a highly unusual move, the National Republican Senatorial Committee this week canceled bookings worth about $10 million, including in the critical states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Arizona.

"The fact that they canceled these reservations was a huge problem you can't get them back," said one Senate Republican strategist, who like others spokes on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal matters. "You can't win elections if you don't have money to run ads."

---

Chalk it up to Trump's fingerprints still on the GOP. It's causing candidates to get by the primary that can't win the general, and the GOP is allocating resources accordingly. GOP polling now shows a probable small D majority in the Senate with a small R majority in the House.

It's too close in both Chambers to make strong predictions; Georgia race is particularly interesting.

Now, Dems' odds in the house are improving, despite Biden's lingering low approval numbers.

The key factor: Dobbs.

Before Dobbs, Dems were underperforming their 2020 numbers by 6%.

After Dobbs, they're overperforming by 5%.

In the special House election in NY, the Republican was the favorite to win. The Dem won, campaigning mostly on abortion rights.

A month ago, I thought Reps were certain to take the House. I still think they will, but the ground is shifting rapidly due to Dobbs and continued Trump shenanigans.

I'm certain Reps wanted the mid-terms to be about inflation and high gas prices, not Dobbs and Trump.

C. Jordan said:

---

Now, Dems' odds in the house are improving, despite Biden's lingering low approval numbers.

The key factor: Dobbs.

Before Dobbs, Dems were underperforming their 2020 numbers by 6%.

After Dobbs, they're overperforming by 5%.

In the special House election in NY, the Republican was the favorite to win. The Dem won, campaigning mostly on abortion rights.

A month ago, I thought Reps were certain to take the House. I still think they will, but the ground is shifting rapidly due to Dobbs and continued Trump shenanigans.

I'm certain Reps wanted the mid-terms to be about inflation and high gas prices, not Dobbs and Trump.

---

as I said, GOP has a Trump problem.. NY guy didnt have a Trump endorsement. Trump lost that district by 2, GOP dude lost by 12.

RACE RATING CHANGE (U.S. SENATE) WISCONSIN *FLIP ALERT*

From Tilt Democrat -> To Tilt Republican.@RonJohnsonWI now leads @TheOtherMandela for Senate in the E.R. Model.

Updated Election Recon Scoreboard:
Democrats: 51
Republicans: 49#Election2022 pic.twitter.com/YuDBAltn7k

— ElectionRecon (@ElectionRecon) August 25, 2022

You think Trump is bad for the GOP?

A Wisconsin school district filed a Title IX complaint against three middle schoolers, accusing them of sexual harassment for using the wrong pronouns when addressing another student.

This is the kind of stuff you support and you don't realize is absolutely insane and bad for democrats.

Osodecentx said:

---

whiterock said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

Watching the races that dont have a Trump endorsed GOP in them tells me that the GOP does in fact have a Trump problem.. turn out levels and Trump endorsements are definitely related.

Trump endorsed canidates have massive turnout numbers compared to those without an endorsement.

---

which is a material factor in the polling averages showing an inexplicable blue trend the last 7-10 days.

Polling is all about the universe. WHO are you polling. WHO is going to vote. The only way to guess that weeks/months out from an election is looking at prior turnout models. As the election approaches, pollsters get a better sense for who is more energized to vote....so the polls tend to tighten.

AP has noted the not just terrible but historically horrible macro-environment Dems are facing. That provides inexorable drag on their prospects.....their record is just terrible. All they can hope for is distraction....to get the population fired up about something else that will move enough people back over to their side to keep things competitive-ish. That is why no sober analyst could ignore the possibility that the MAL raid might be pure politics of the cycle, and that after the election, the DOJ announces "no charges."

If a scenario like that plays out, we will know why.

And the positive turnout we see with the Trump-endorsed candidates, though, is pretty easy to understand. He's drawing new voters out of the woodworks. And the numbers of those new voters dwarf the neverTrumper Republicans.

---

538 average of polls has Fetterman ahead by 10.8%
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2022/pennsylvania/

RCP average of polls has Fetterman ahead by 7.5% as of Sunday
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/pa/pennsylvania_senate_oz_vs_fetterman-7695.html

---

remember, the averages are a trailing indicator, as in, trailing by 7-10 days.

whiterock said:

---

Osodecentx said:

---

whiterock said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

Watching the races that dont have a Trump endorsed GOP in them tells me that the GOP does in fact have a Trump problem.. turn out levels and Trump endorsements are definitely related.

Trump endorsed canidates have massive turnout numbers compared to those without an endorsement.

---

which is a material factor in the polling averages showing an inexplicable blue trend the last 7-10 days.

Polling is all about the universe. WHO are you polling. WHO is going to vote. The only way to guess that weeks/months out from an election is looking at prior turnout models. As the election approaches, pollsters get a better sense for who is more energized to vote....so the polls tend to tighten.

AP has noted the not just terrible but historically horrible macro-environment Dems are facing. That provides inexorable drag on their prospects.....their record is just terrible. All they can hope for is distraction....to get the population fired up about something else that will move enough people back over to their side to keep things competitive-ish. That is why no sober analyst could ignore the possibility that the MAL raid might be pure politics of the cycle, and that after the election, the DOJ announces "no charges."

If a scenario like that plays out, we will know why.

And the positive turnout we see with the Trump-endorsed candidates, though, is pretty easy to understand. He's drawing new voters out of the woodworks. And the numbers of those new voters dwarf the neverTrumper Republicans.

---

538 average of polls has Fetterman ahead by 10.8%
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2022/pennsylvania/

RCP average of polls has Fetterman ahead by 7.5% as of Sunday
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/pa/pennsylvania_senate_oz_vs_fetterman-7695.html

---

remember, the averages are a trailing indicator, as in, trailing by 7-10 days.

---

Got it
It's just another data point

C. Jordan said:

---

Now, Dems' odds in the house are improving, despite Biden's lingering low approval numbers.

The key factor: Dobbs.

Before Dobbs, Dems were underperforming their 2020 numbers by 6%.

After Dobbs, they're overperforming by 5%.

In the special House election in NY, the Republican was the favorite to win. The Dem won, campaigning mostly on abortion rights.

A month ago, I thought Reps were certain to take the House. I still think they will, but the ground is shifting rapidly due to Dobbs and continued Trump shenanigans.

I'm certain Reps wanted the mid-terms to be about inflation and high gas prices, not Dobbs and Trump.

---

Indeed, women feel strongly about having the ability to kill their children, and Dems knew they would be able to capitalize on it. Yes, their ideas are horrible for the country, and have been a total ****ing disaster but we need more baby killing.

Must make you proud to be a Dem, eh minister? Your party's entire platform is built on a culture of death.

Doc Holliday said:

---

You think Trump is bad for the GOP?

A Wisconsin school district filed a Title IX complaint against three middle schoolers, accusing them of sexual harassment for using the wrong pronouns when addressing another student.

This is the kind of stuff you support and you don't realize is absolutely insane and bad for democrats.

---

You mean worrying about someone in the GOP that threatens to get less conservatives elected and enabling more democrats to do so? You mean someone who fights as hard and negative against people in his own party who would never support the type of insanity you point out above, and fracturing support from people with 80-90% of a common platform? You mean someone with a my way or the highway approach to consensus building (within his own party no less)?

What could be bad about that when facing the type of absolute madness being pushed by the opposing party??

4th and Inches said:

---

Watching the races that dont have a Trump endorsed GOP in them tells me that the GOP does in fact have a Trump problem.. turn out levels and Trump endorsements are definitely related.

Trump endorsed canidates have massive turnout numbers compared to those without an endorsement.

---

It's a problem going both ways. Trump candidates turn out the Republican vote in the primaries. But in the general election, not so much, where Trump has given the opposition a plethora of material to attack the candidate. It appears we are seeing that Trump candidates don't generally attract independents and moderates. But of course, in the general election, the Trump sycophants probably don't show up for a non-Trump backed candidate.

It's a case of damned if you do, damned if you don't. I think until Trump is out of the picture, this is going to continue to be an issue.

whiterock said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

Watching the races that dont have a Trump endorsed GOP in them tells me that the GOP does in fact have a Trump problem.. turn out levels and Trump endorsements are definitely related.

Trump endorsed canidates have massive turnout numbers compared to those without an endorsement.

---

which is a material factor in the polling averages showing an inexplicable blue trend the last 7-10 days.

Polling is all about the universe. WHO are you polling. WHO is going to vote. The only way to guess that weeks/months out from an election is looking at prior turnout models. As the election approaches, pollsters get a better sense for who is more energized to vote....so the polls tend to tighten.

AP has noted the not just terrible but historically horrible macro-environment Dems are facing. That provides inexorable drag on their prospects.....their record is just terrible. All they can hope for is distraction....to get the population fired up about something else that will move enough people back over to their side to keep things competitive-ish. That is why no sober analyst could ignore the possibility that the MAL raid might be pure politics of the cycle, and that after the election, the DOJ announces "no charges."

If a scenario like that plays out, we will know why.

And the positive turnout we see with the Trump-endorsed candidates, though, is pretty easy to understand. He's drawing new voters out of the woodworks. And the numbers of those new voters dwarf the neverTrumper Republicans.

---

Your posts are generally well-reasoned, but I question what kind of turnout and crossover among moderates and independents we are going to see in the general election with these Trump-backed candidates. Trump is such a lightning rod that he also brings out the Democrat vote to defeat him and his candidates.

Harrison Bergeron said:

---

whiterock said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

Watching the races that dont have a Trump endorsed GOP in them tells me that the GOP does in fact have a Trump problem.. turn out levels and Trump endorsements are definitely related.

Trump endorsed canidates have massive turnout numbers compared to those without an endorsement.

---

which is a material factor in the polling averages showing an inexplicable blue trend the last 7-10 days.

Polling is all about the universe. WHO are you polling. WHO is going to vote. The only way to guess that weeks/months out from an election is looking at prior turnout models. As the election approaches, pollsters get a better sense for who is more energized to vote....so the polls tend to tighten.

AP has noted the not just terrible but historically horrible macro-environment Dems are facing. That provides inexorable drag on their prospects.....their record is just terrible. All they can hope for is distraction....to get the population fired up about something else that will move enough people back over to their side to keep things competitive-ish. That is why no sober analyst could ignore the possibility that the MAL raid might be pure politics of the cycle, and that after the election, the DOJ announces "no charges."

If a scenario like that plays out, we will know why.

And the positive turnout we see with the Trump-endorsed candidates, though, is pretty easy to understand. He's drawing new voters out of the woodworks. And the numbers of those new voters dwarf the neverTrumper Republicans.

---

Trump has bouts of political savvy overwhelmed by ego-driven destruction and stupidity.

---

This is Trump in a nutshell. I wish he had the ability to control his worst impulses, but alas, he has proven a complete inability to do so.

The FBI raid is a perfect example. It was completely avoidable. He could have just turned over the documents to the govt., but had to make it yet another ridiculous hill to die on.

Doc Holliday said:

---

You think Trump is bad for the GOP?

A Wisconsin school district filed a Title IX complaint against three middle schoolers, accusing them of sexual harassment for using the wrong pronouns when addressing another student.

This is the kind of stuff you support and you don't realize is absolutely insane and bad for democrats.

---

Wokeism is nuts, but Trump is not the only candidate able to fight it.

ATL Bear said:

---

Doc Holliday said:

---

You think Trump is bad for the GOP?

A Wisconsin school district filed a Title IX complaint against three middle schoolers, accusing them of sexual harassment for using the wrong pronouns when addressing another student.

This is the kind of stuff you support and you don't realize is absolutely insane and bad for democrats.

---

You mean worrying about someone in the GOP that threatens to get less conservatives elected and enabling more democrats to do so? You mean someone who fights as hard and negative against people in his own party who would never support the type of insanity you point out above, and fracturing support from people with 80-90% of a common platform? You mean someone with a my way or the highway approach to consensus building (within his own party no less)?

What could be bad about that when facing the type of absolute madness being pushed by the opposing party??

---

Bingo.

Osodecentx said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Osodecentx said:

---

whiterock said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

Watching the races that dont have a Trump endorsed GOP in them tells me that the GOP does in fact have a Trump problem.. turn out levels and Trump endorsements are definitely related.

Trump endorsed canidates have massive turnout numbers compared to those without an endorsement.

---

which is a material factor in the polling averages showing an inexplicable blue trend the last 7-10 days.

Polling is all about the universe. WHO are you polling. WHO is going to vote. The only way to guess that weeks/months out from an election is looking at prior turnout models. As the election approaches, pollsters get a better sense for who is more energized to vote....so the polls tend to tighten.

AP has noted the not just terrible but historically horrible macro-environment Dems are facing. That provides inexorable drag on their prospects.....their record is just terrible. All they can hope for is distraction....to get the population fired up about something else that will move enough people back over to their side to keep things competitive-ish. That is why no sober analyst could ignore the possibility that the MAL raid might be pure politics of the cycle, and that after the election, the DOJ announces "no charges."

If a scenario like that plays out, we will know why.

And the positive turnout we see with the Trump-endorsed candidates, though, is pretty easy to understand. He's drawing new voters out of the woodworks. And the numbers of those new voters dwarf the neverTrumper Republicans.

---

538 average of polls has Fetterman ahead by 10.8%
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2022/pennsylvania/

RCP average of polls has Fetterman ahead by 7.5% as of Sunday
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/pa/pennsylvania_senate_oz_vs_fetterman-7695.html

---

remember, the averages are a trailing indicator, as in, trailing by 7-10 days.

---

Got it
It's just another data point

---

the PA senate poll posted above is the kind of move in numbers you often see after the pollsters go over the primary voting data. They see who ACTUALLY voted, then adjust their polling universes. Susquehanna (a PA state level GOP firm) also has a very good reputation in the world of polling. They're a good one to check if you want to track the PA senate race.

Osodecentx said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

Johnny Bear said:

---

Good 'ole establishment Mitch McConnell is a big problem for the GOP.

---

Understatement of the week .


The old fool is showing zero leadership ability.


His recent comments were incredibly damaging .

---

Trump helped him win re-election and here we are.. he is lifting his skirt for the Dems. Cocaine Mitch needs to be retired from leadership.

---

McConnell gave us Justice Barrett and kept Merrick Garland from being a Justice.
McConnell got more votes in Kentucky than Trump

---

I will give McConnell respect on the SCOTUS judges.

He deserves massive accolades just for keeping Merrick Garland off the Supreme Court.

Forest Bueller_bf said:

---

Doc Holliday said:

---

You think Trump is bad for the GOP?

A Wisconsin school district filed a Title IX complaint against three middle schoolers, accusing them of sexual harassment for using the wrong pronouns when addressing another student.

This is the kind of stuff you support and you don't realize is absolutely insane and bad for democrats.

---

The problem is, you can dig up this news if you look hard enough, but it isn't focused on.

This is the stuff the MSM should be angry about, a kid, having a Title 9 complaint, even sexual harassment, filed against them for using the wrong "pronouns".

This is absolutely insane, and points towards a Gestapo type enforcement of law.

---

....while protected classes ransack and loot at will without consequence....

‘Flash mob’ looters ransack a 7-11 after a street takeover at Figueroa and El Segundo, in Los Angeles, on August 15, 2022.
Other locations were recently hit. pic.twitter.com/AP2Rr2g0vQ@RedFreckles111

— Watchman 🇺🇸 (@JohnD91394640) August 19, 2022

Redbrickbear said:

---

Osodecentx said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

Johnny Bear said:

---

Good 'ole establishment Mitch McConnell is a big problem for the GOP.

---

Understatement of the week .


The old fool is showing zero leadership ability.


His recent comments were incredibly damaging .

---

Trump helped him win re-election and here we are.. he is lifting his skirt for the Dems. Cocaine Mitch needs to be retired from leadership.

---

McConnell gave us Justice Barrett and kept Merrick Garland from being a Justice.
McConnell got more votes in Kentucky than Trump

---

He deserves massive accolades just for keeping Merrick Garland off the Supreme Court.

---

The one time he actually had the nads to boldly do the right thing. Of course Miss I can't define what a woman is Ketanji Brown Jackson is even worse (if that's possible).

Johnny Bear said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

---

Osodecentx said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

Johnny Bear said:

---

Good 'ole establishment Mitch McConnell is a big problem for the GOP.

---

Understatement of the week .


The old fool is showing zero leadership ability.


His recent comments were incredibly damaging .

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Trump helped him win re-election and here we are.. he is lifting his skirt for the Dems. Cocaine Mitch needs to be retired from leadership.

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McConnell gave us Justice Barrett and kept Merrick Garland from being a Justice.
McConnell got more votes in Kentucky than Trump

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He deserves massive accolades just for keeping Merrick Garland off the Supreme Court.

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The one time he actually had the nads to boldly do the right thing. Of course Miss I can't define what a woman is Ketanji Brown Jackson is even worse (if that's possible).

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one good season does not a hall of fame make

whiterock said:

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Osodecentx said:

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whiterock said:

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Osodecentx said:

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whiterock said:

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4th and Inches said:

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Watching the races that dont have a Trump endorsed GOP in them tells me that the GOP does in fact have a Trump problem.. turn out levels and Trump endorsements are definitely related.

Trump endorsed canidates have massive turnout numbers compared to those without an endorsement.

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which is a material factor in the polling averages showing an inexplicable blue trend the last 7-10 days.

Polling is all about the universe. WHO are you polling. WHO is going to vote. The only way to guess that weeks/months out from an election is looking at prior turnout models. As the election approaches, pollsters get a better sense for who is more energized to vote....so the polls tend to tighten.

AP has noted the not just terrible but historically horrible macro-environment Dems are facing. That provides inexorable drag on their prospects.....their record is just terrible. All they can hope for is distraction....to get the population fired up about something else that will move enough people back over to their side to keep things competitive-ish. That is why no sober analyst could ignore the possibility that the MAL raid might be pure politics of the cycle, and that after the election, the DOJ announces "no charges."

If a scenario like that plays out, we will know why.

And the positive turnout we see with the Trump-endorsed candidates, though, is pretty easy to understand. He's drawing new voters out of the woodworks. And the numbers of those new voters dwarf the neverTrumper Republicans.

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538 average of polls has Fetterman ahead by 10.8%
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2022/pennsylvania/

RCP average of polls has Fetterman ahead by 7.5% as of Sunday
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/pa/pennsylvania_senate_oz_vs_fetterman-7695.html

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remember, the averages are a trailing indicator, as in, trailing by 7-10 days.

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Got it
It's just another data point

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the PA senate poll posted above is the kind of move in numbers you often see after the pollsters go over the primary voting data. They see who ACTUALLY voted, then adjust their polling universes. Susquehanna (a PA state level GOP firm) also has a very good reputation in the world of polling. They're a good one to check if you want to track the PA senate race.

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I prefer the average of polls. You recommended RCP earlier.

538 and RCP are both averages. Susquehanna is a good poll, but it is only one

Osodecentx said:

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whiterock said:

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Osodecentx said:

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whiterock said:

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Osodecentx said:

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whiterock said:

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4th and Inches said:

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Watching the races that dont have a Trump endorsed GOP in them tells me that the GOP does in fact have a Trump problem.. turn out levels and Trump endorsements are definitely related.

Trump endorsed canidates have massive turnout numbers compared to those without an endorsement.

---

which is a material factor in the polling averages showing an inexplicable blue trend the last 7-10 days.

Polling is all about the universe. WHO are you polling. WHO is going to vote. The only way to guess that weeks/months out from an election is looking at prior turnout models. As the election approaches, pollsters get a better sense for who is more energized to vote....so the polls tend to tighten.

AP has noted the not just terrible but historically horrible macro-environment Dems are facing. That provides inexorable drag on their prospects.....their record is just terrible. All they can hope for is distraction....to get the population fired up about something else that will move enough people back over to their side to keep things competitive-ish. That is why no sober analyst could ignore the possibility that the MAL raid might be pure politics of the cycle, and that after the election, the DOJ announces "no charges."

If a scenario like that plays out, we will know why.

And the positive turnout we see with the Trump-endorsed candidates, though, is pretty easy to understand. He's drawing new voters out of the woodworks. And the numbers of those new voters dwarf the neverTrumper Republicans.

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538 average of polls has Fetterman ahead by 10.8%
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2022/pennsylvania/

RCP average of polls has Fetterman ahead by 7.5% as of Sunday
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/pa/pennsylvania_senate_oz_vs_fetterman-7695.html

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remember, the averages are a trailing indicator, as in, trailing by 7-10 days.

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Got it
It's just another data point

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the PA senate poll posted above is the kind of move in numbers you often see after the pollsters go over the primary voting data. They see who ACTUALLY voted, then adjust their polling universes. Susquehanna (a PA state level GOP firm) also has a very good reputation in the world of polling. They're a good one to check if you want to track the PA senate race.

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I prefer the average of polls. You recommended RCP earlier.

538 and RCP are both averages. Susquehanna is a good poll, but it is only one

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RCP is consistently more accurate than 538. As a rule, GOP firms are better than Dem firms. Insider Advantage and Trafalgar, two of the top 3-4 in accuracy, are GOP firms. Rasmussen is not Democrat and neither is IBD/Tipp, to my knowledge. Those four have always lead the pack the last 4 cycles. Silver (538) includes more Dem-lean polls, ergo he tends to trail RCP every cycle.

Virtually all the pollsters got their start in politics, as a campaign aide, then a legislative aide, then into consulting. At that point, all but the very best ones, the ones who almost never lose a race, start going into specialties….direct mail, data analysis, social media, text/email services, and…..polling. It's a brutal "up or out" game.

Upshot is, when you see a poll, it was probably done by someone who is a politico at heart.

Osodecentx said:

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whiterock said:

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Osodecentx said:

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whiterock said:

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Osodecentx said:

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whiterock said:

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4th and Inches said:

---

Watching the races that dont have a Trump endorsed GOP in them tells me that the GOP does in fact have a Trump problem.. turn out levels and Trump endorsements are definitely related.

Trump endorsed canidates have massive turnout numbers compared to those without an endorsement.

---

which is a material factor in the polling averages showing an inexplicable blue trend the last 7-10 days.

Polling is all about the universe. WHO are you polling. WHO is going to vote. The only way to guess that weeks/months out from an election is looking at prior turnout models. As the election approaches, pollsters get a better sense for who is more energized to vote....so the polls tend to tighten.

AP has noted the not just terrible but historically horrible macro-environment Dems are facing. That provides inexorable drag on their prospects.....their record is just terrible. All they can hope for is distraction....to get the population fired up about something else that will move enough people back over to their side to keep things competitive-ish. That is why no sober analyst could ignore the possibility that the MAL raid might be pure politics of the cycle, and that after the election, the DOJ announces "no charges."

If a scenario like that plays out, we will know why.

And the positive turnout we see with the Trump-endorsed candidates, though, is pretty easy to understand. He's drawing new voters out of the woodworks. And the numbers of those new voters dwarf the neverTrumper Republicans.

---

538 average of polls has Fetterman ahead by 10.8%
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2022/pennsylvania/

RCP average of polls has Fetterman ahead by 7.5% as of Sunday
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/pa/pennsylvania_senate_oz_vs_fetterman-7695.html

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remember, the averages are a trailing indicator, as in, trailing by 7-10 days.

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Got it
It's just another data point

---

the PA senate poll posted above is the kind of move in numbers you often see after the pollsters go over the primary voting data. They see who ACTUALLY voted, then adjust their polling universes. Susquehanna (a PA state level GOP firm) also has a very good reputation in the world of polling. They're a good one to check if you want to track the PA senate race.

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I prefer the average of polls. You recommended RCP earlier.

538 and RCP are both averages. Susquehanna is a good poll, but it is only one

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the problem with averages is they include dogpoop polls designed for media.. ABC/WaPo, CNN, Fox.. awful! But it gives them talking points.