GOP is cutting ads in Penn, Az & Wisconsin. That would mean 2 pick ups for Dems. I'm not seeing 3 Republican pick ups in states left in play.

In a highly unusual move, the National Republican Senatorial Committee this week canceled bookings worth about $10 million, including in the critical states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Arizona.

"The fact that they canceled these reservations was a huge problem you can't get them back," said one Senate Republican strategist, who like others spokes on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal matters. "You can't win elections if you don't have money to run ads."

C. Jordan said:

---

Looks really good for Dems right now.

They can thank Trump and his promotion of awful candidates: Vance, Oz, and Walker, among others.

---

I agree with you on Oz…fetterman is gonna win in PA.

But Vance is a good candidate and is gonna win Ohio.

I'm hopeful for Vance

Osodecentx said:

---

Adriacus Peratuun said:

---

Laughing.

What were the original buy orders?

If R's bought 70X and D's bought 40X, then R's cancel 10X……..it isn't the horror scenario you are predicting. Reallocating funds is normal.

How much dark money is being spent by both sides? If the dark money favors Rs by 10x1, any reduction in party $ is likely irrelevant.

How much $ has each candidate raised? How much $ remains for each candidate?

You are making wholesale predictions based upon a single puzzle piece. SMH

---

R's are pulling early money from candidates who are way behind in order to save those who still have a pulse. It happens every election cycle. This is no different. "If" isn't reality

---

1978 is the best "go by".

Rs will net gain in Senate. Inflation is reality.

Adriacus Peratuun said:

---

Osodecentx said:

---

Adriacus Peratuun said:

---

Laughing.

What were the original buy orders?

If R's bought 70X and D's bought 40X, then R's cancel 10X……..it isn't the horror scenario you are predicting. Reallocating funds is normal.

How much dark money is being spent by both sides? If the dark money favors Rs by 10x1, any reduction in party $ is likely irrelevant.

How much $ has each candidate raised? How much $ remains for each candidate?

You are making wholesale predictions based upon a single puzzle piece. SMH

---

R's are pulling early money from candidates who are way behind in order to save those who still have a pulse. It happens every election cycle. This is no different. "If" isn't reality

---

1978 is the best "go by".

Rs will net gain in Senate. Inflation is reality.

---

44 years ago?

Your analysis of the realignment on the subscriber board is magnificent and the best thing on the internet.

On the Senate races, however, you are not looking at who is up for reelection, where the incumbents are, where Trump's weak candidates are, etc. Inflation is a potent issue, but you apparently are making a prediction on one issue and are ignoring all other factors

I focus on one issue when it will sway 85% of independent voters.

RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

---

Harrison Bergeron said:

---

The "media" is giving Fetterman the Biden basement treatment ... ignoring him. Just like in Georgia it's ignoring a wife beater.

---

I am pulling for the had a stroke, cannot put a cognitive sentence together guy in Pennsylvania. The only way he could get more support from the Dems is if he was dead.

Clown country. Clown World.

---

Fetterman may win in PA but it will take them 6 weeks to count the votes.

4th and Inches said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

---

C. Jordan said:

---

Looks really good for Dems right now.

They can thank Trump and his promotion of awful candidates: Vance, Oz, and Walker, among others.

---

I agree with you on Oz…fetterman is gonna win in PA.

But Vance is a good candidate and is gonna win Ohio.

---

fetterman may not make it to the election.. watch video of him, he is in bad shape. Oz is not great canidate but fetterman is terrible. If he wins, people arent paying attention or voting against Oz Fetterman is bad, Oz is worse. Republicans lose a seat.

Vance is gonna win Ohio.I hope so, I like him. If he wins, Republicans hold a seat they have

Walker is gonna win GA. Nope, Republicans really need to pick up a seat somewhere. I thought this would be easy

Laxalt is leading in NV, watch that one. I think you're right. Republicans flip a seat.

Johnson is -4 in WI according to FoX poll but Fox overstated WI polling by 6.5 in 2020.. this is a horse race folks. I hope you're right. If you are right, Republicans hold a seat.

---

Republicans have a decent shot to pick up that Nevada senate seat. I thought we would pick up Arizona until Trump endorsed a loser.

If everything goes right, Republicanshave 50 senators. BTW, Ohio and Wisconsin are a problem.

Advantage Schumer

Osodecentx said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

---

C. Jordan said:

---

Looks really good for Dems right now.

They can thank Trump and his promotion of awful candidates: Vance, Oz, and Walker, among others.

---

I agree with you on Oz…fetterman is gonna win in PA.

But Vance is a good candidate and is gonna win Ohio.

---

fetterman may not make it to the election.. watch video of him, he is in bad shape. Oz is not great canidate but fetterman is terrible. If he wins, people arent paying attention or voting against Oz Fetterman is bad, Oz is worse. Republicans lose a seat.

Vance is gonna win Ohio.I hope so, I like him. If he wins, Republicans hold a seat they have

Walker is gonna win GA. Nope, Republicans really need to pick up a seat somewhere. I thought this would be easy

Laxalt is leading in NV, watch that one. I think you're right. Republicans flip a seat.

Johnson is -4 in WI according to FoX poll but Fox overstated WI polling by 6.5 in 2020.. this is a horse race folks. I hope you're right. If you are right, Republicans hold a seat.

---

Republicans have a decent shot to pick up that Nevada senate seat. I thought we would pick up Arizona until Trump endorsed a loser.

If everything goes right, Republicanshave 50 senators. BTW, Ohio and Wisconsin are a problem.

Advantage Schumer

---

even 538 shows Walker leading in GA.. dont get so down on this one yet.

Dont look at any driveby media polls, they are done for news and have a really bad track record. They are over sampling Dems consistently.

🚨NEW #PASEN POLL SHOWS INCREDIBLY TIGHT RACE🚨@DrOz 45.9%@JohnFetterman 46.3%
Others: 4.5%
Undecided: 3.3%

Conducted 8/15-8/19, 2,800 Likely Voters

Carleton was the most accurate Senate internal in 2020. Consider giving us a follow to support our new public polling journey.

— Carleton Polling (@CarletonPolling) August 20, 2022

OZ is gaining ground.. same pollster had him down 2.6% a month ago

4th and Inches said:

---

Osodecentx said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

---

C. Jordan said:

---

Looks really good for Dems right now.

They can thank Trump and his promotion of awful candidates: Vance, Oz, and Walker, among others.

---

I agree with you on Oz…fetterman is gonna win in PA.

But Vance is a good candidate and is gonna win Ohio.

---

fetterman may not make it to the election.. watch video of him, he is in bad shape. Oz is not great canidate but fetterman is terrible. If he wins, people arent paying attention or voting against Oz Fetterman is bad, Oz is worse. Republicans lose a seat.

Vance is gonna win Ohio.I hope so, I like him. If he wins, Republicans hold a seat they have

Walker is gonna win GA. Nope, Republicans really need to pick up a seat somewhere. I thought this would be easy

Laxalt is leading in NV, watch that one. I think you're right. Republicans flip a seat.

Johnson is -4 in WI according to FoX poll but Fox overstated WI polling by 6.5 in 2020.. this is a horse race folks. I hope you're right. If you are right, Republicans hold a seat.

---

Republicans have a decent shot to pick up that Nevada senate seat. I thought we would pick up Arizona until Trump endorsed a loser.

If everything goes right, Republicanshave 50 senators. BTW, Ohio and Wisconsin are a problem.

Advantage Schumer

---

even 538 shows Walker leading in GA.. dont get so down on this one yet.

Dont look at any driveby media polls, they are done for news and have a really bad track record. They are over sampling Dems consistently.

🚨NEW #PASEN POLL SHOWS INCREDIBLY TIGHT RACE🚨@DrOz 45.9%@JohnFetterman 46.3%
Others: 4.5%
Undecided: 3.3%

Conducted 8/15-8/19, 2,800 Likely Voters

Carleton was the most accurate Senate internal in 2020. Consider giving us a follow to support our new public polling journey.

— Carleton Polling (@CarletonPolling) August 20, 2022

OZ is gaining ground.. same pollster had him down 2.6% a month ago

---

Sure hope you're right

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/

Canada2017 said:

---

Johnny Bear said:

---

Good 'ole establishment Mitch McConnell is a big problem for the GOP.

---

Understatement of the week .


The old fool is showing zero leadership ability.


His recent comments were incredibly damaging .

---

Trump helped him win re-election and here we are.. he is lifting his skirt for the Dems. Cocaine Mitch needs to be retired from leadership.

4th and Inches said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

Johnny Bear said:

---

Good 'ole establishment Mitch McConnell is a big problem for the GOP.

---

Understatement of the week .


The old fool is showing zero leadership ability.


His recent comments were incredibly damaging .

---

Trump helped him win re-election and here we are.. he is lifting his skirt for the Dems. Cocaine Mitch needs to be retired from leadership.

---

Yes....as in yesterday .

Osodecentx said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

Osodecentx said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

---

C. Jordan said:

---

Looks really good for Dems right now.

They can thank Trump and his promotion of awful candidates: Vance, Oz, and Walker, among others.

---

I agree with you on Oz…fetterman is gonna win in PA.

But Vance is a good candidate and is gonna win Ohio.

---

fetterman may not make it to the election.. watch video of him, he is in bad shape. Oz is not great canidate but fetterman is terrible. If he wins, people arent paying attention or voting against Oz Fetterman is bad, Oz is worse. Republicans lose a seat.

Vance is gonna win Ohio.I hope so, I like him. If he wins, Republicans hold a seat they have

Walker is gonna win GA. Nope, Republicans really need to pick up a seat somewhere. I thought this would be easy

Laxalt is leading in NV, watch that one. I think you're right. Republicans flip a seat.

Johnson is -4 in WI according to FoX poll but Fox overstated WI polling by 6.5 in 2020.. this is a horse race folks. I hope you're right. If you are right, Republicans hold a seat.

---

Republicans have a decent shot to pick up that Nevada senate seat. I thought we would pick up Arizona until Trump endorsed a loser.

If everything goes right, Republicanshave 50 senators. BTW, Ohio and Wisconsin are a problem.

Advantage Schumer

---

even 538 shows Walker leading in GA.. dont get so down on this one yet.

Dont look at any driveby media polls, they are done for news and have a really bad track record. They are over sampling Dems consistently.

🚨NEW #PASEN POLL SHOWS INCREDIBLY TIGHT RACE🚨@DrOz 45.9%@JohnFetterman 46.3%
Others: 4.5%
Undecided: 3.3%

Conducted 8/15-8/19, 2,800 Likely Voters

Carleton was the most accurate Senate internal in 2020. Consider giving us a follow to support our new public polling journey.

— Carleton Polling (@CarletonPolling) August 20, 2022

OZ is gaining ground.. same pollster had him down 2.6% a month ago

---

Sure hope you're right

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/

---

RCP avg better than 538 and Cook is garbage-ly blue

Last sentence of OP is the clue = issue is RNC fundraising for independent expenditures, not SRCC spends or candidate spends or candidate quality.

6yrs ago, everyone pulled out of Johnson's race -down 9. Then two weeks out, everybody jumps back in. He wins comfortably.

Still early. Macro environment terrible for team blue. Media beating up on GOP seconded by the Oso-caucus complaints RE candidate quality does not help fundraising. Candidates are good enough and far preferable to the scheisse-heads Dems are running.

Heed AP: Smart money says GOP ends up at 51-52 which is a great outcome given the seats available this cycle (GOP defending 20, Dems defending 10 in mostly blue states.). Please play team ball and donate.

DONATE

Adriacus Peratuun said:

---

FYI:

No volume of TV or radio ads can "out-advertise" the aisle pricing & receipts at the grocery store [and every other store].

Ds were in a significantly better situation [history, map, numbers, money, etc.] in 1978 [and 1980] than now. They tried to ignore inflation then. It was a disaster.

Today's economy is the closest we have been to that point since Reagan.

Inflation is on the ballot. People vote their wallets. Liking candidates is a luxury not a necessity. End of story.

---

therein lies one potential explanation for the MAL raid. ANYTHING to distract from the dreadful economy

whiterock said:

---

Osodecentx said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

Osodecentx said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

---

C. Jordan said:

---

Looks really good for Dems right now.

They can thank Trump and his promotion of awful candidates: Vance, Oz, and Walker, among others.

---

I agree with you on Oz…fetterman is gonna win in PA.

But Vance is a good candidate and is gonna win Ohio.

---

fetterman may not make it to the election.. watch video of him, he is in bad shape. Oz is not great canidate but fetterman is terrible. If he wins, people arent paying attention or voting against Oz Fetterman is bad, Oz is worse. Republicans lose a seat.

Vance is gonna win Ohio.I hope so, I like him. If he wins, Republicans hold a seat they have

Walker is gonna win GA. Nope, Republicans really need to pick up a seat somewhere. I thought this would be easy

Laxalt is leading in NV, watch that one. I think you're right. Republicans flip a seat.

Johnson is -4 in WI according to FoX poll but Fox overstated WI polling by 6.5 in 2020.. this is a horse race folks. I hope you're right. If you are right, Republicans hold a seat.

---

Republicans have a decent shot to pick up that Nevada senate seat. I thought we would pick up Arizona until Trump endorsed a loser.

If everything goes right, Republicanshave 50 senators. BTW, Ohio and Wisconsin are a problem.

Advantage Schumer

---

even 538 shows Walker leading in GA.. dont get so down on this one yet.

Dont look at any driveby media polls, they are done for news and have a really bad track record. They are over sampling Dems consistently.

🚨NEW #PASEN POLL SHOWS INCREDIBLY TIGHT RACE🚨@DrOz 45.9%@JohnFetterman 46.3%
Others: 4.5%
Undecided: 3.3%

Conducted 8/15-8/19, 2,800 Likely Voters

Carleton was the most accurate Senate internal in 2020. Consider giving us a follow to support our new public polling journey.

— Carleton Polling (@CarletonPolling) August 20, 2022

OZ is gaining ground.. same pollster had him down 2.6% a month ago

---

Sure hope you're right

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/

---

RCP avg better than 538 and Cook is garbage-ly blue

Last sentence of OP is the clue = issue is RNC fundraising for independent expenditures, not SRCC spends or candidate spends or candidate quality.

6yrs ago, everyone pulled out of Johnson's race -down 9. Then two weeks out, everybody jumps back in. He wins comfortably.

Still early. Macro environment terrible for team blue. Media beating up on GOP seconded by the Oso-caucus complaints RE candidate quality does not help fundraising. Candidates are good enough and far preferable to the scheisse-heads Dems are running.

Heed AP: Smart money says GOP ends up at 51-52 which is a great outcome given the seats available this cycle (GOP defending 20, Dems defending 10 in mostly blue states.). Please play team ball and donate.

---

51-52 would be fabulous

whiterock said:

---

Osodecentx said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

Osodecentx said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

---

C. Jordan said:

---

Looks really good for Dems right now.

They can thank Trump and his promotion of awful candidates: Vance, Oz, and Walker, among others.

---

I agree with you on Oz…fetterman is gonna win in PA.

But Vance is a good candidate and is gonna win Ohio.

---

fetterman may not make it to the election.. watch video of him, he is in bad shape. Oz is not great canidate but fetterman is terrible. If he wins, people arent paying attention or voting against Oz Fetterman is bad, Oz is worse. Republicans lose a seat.

Vance is gonna win Ohio.I hope so, I like him. If he wins, Republicans hold a seat they have

Walker is gonna win GA. Nope, Republicans really need to pick up a seat somewhere. I thought this would be easy

Laxalt is leading in NV, watch that one. I think you're right. Republicans flip a seat.

Johnson is -4 in WI according to FoX poll but Fox overstated WI polling by 6.5 in 2020.. this is a horse race folks. I hope you're right. If you are right, Republicans hold a seat.

---

Republicans have a decent shot to pick up that Nevada senate seat. I thought we would pick up Arizona until Trump endorsed a loser.

If everything goes right, Republicanshave 50 senators. BTW, Ohio and Wisconsin are a problem.

Advantage Schumer

---

even 538 shows Walker leading in GA.. dont get so down on this one yet.

Dont look at any driveby media polls, they are done for news and have a really bad track record. They are over sampling Dems consistently.

🚨NEW #PASEN POLL SHOWS INCREDIBLY TIGHT RACE🚨@DrOz 45.9%@JohnFetterman 46.3%
Others: 4.5%
Undecided: 3.3%

Conducted 8/15-8/19, 2,800 Likely Voters

Carleton was the most accurate Senate internal in 2020. Consider giving us a follow to support our new public polling journey.

— Carleton Polling (@CarletonPolling) August 20, 2022

OZ is gaining ground.. same pollster had him down 2.6% a month ago

---

Sure hope you're right

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/

---

RCP avg better than 538 and Cook is garbage-ly blue

---

RCP has Fetterman ahead by 7.5%

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/pa/pennsylvania_senate_oz_vs_fetterman-7695.html

Osodecentx said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Osodecentx said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

Osodecentx said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

---

C. Jordan said:

---

Looks really good for Dems right now.

They can thank Trump and his promotion of awful candidates: Vance, Oz, and Walker, among others.

---

I agree with you on Oz…fetterman is gonna win in PA.

But Vance is a good candidate and is gonna win Ohio.

---

fetterman may not make it to the election.. watch video of him, he is in bad shape. Oz is not great canidate but fetterman is terrible. If he wins, people arent paying attention or voting against Oz Fetterman is bad, Oz is worse. Republicans lose a seat.

Vance is gonna win Ohio.I hope so, I like him. If he wins, Republicans hold a seat they have

Walker is gonna win GA. Nope, Republicans really need to pick up a seat somewhere. I thought this would be easy

Laxalt is leading in NV, watch that one. I think you're right. Republicans flip a seat.

Johnson is -4 in WI according to FoX poll but Fox overstated WI polling by 6.5 in 2020.. this is a horse race folks. I hope you're right. If you are right, Republicans hold a seat.

---

Republicans have a decent shot to pick up that Nevada senate seat. I thought we would pick up Arizona until Trump endorsed a loser.

If everything goes right, Republicanshave 50 senators. BTW, Ohio and Wisconsin are a problem.

Advantage Schumer

---

even 538 shows Walker leading in GA.. dont get so down on this one yet.

Dont look at any driveby media polls, they are done for news and have a really bad track record. They are over sampling Dems consistently.

🚨NEW #PASEN POLL SHOWS INCREDIBLY TIGHT RACE🚨@DrOz 45.9%@JohnFetterman 46.3%
Others: 4.5%
Undecided: 3.3%

Conducted 8/15-8/19, 2,800 Likely Voters

Carleton was the most accurate Senate internal in 2020. Consider giving us a follow to support our new public polling journey.

— Carleton Polling (@CarletonPolling) August 20, 2022

OZ is gaining ground.. same pollster had him down 2.6% a month ago

---

Sure hope you're right

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/

---

RCP avg better than 538 and Cook is garbage-ly blue

---

RCP has Fetterman ahead by 7.5%

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/pa/pennsylvania_senate_oz_vs_fetterman-7695.html

---

ugh, probably more like +4 or so.. that plus 11 from Fox is bullsh.. gawd they suck at polling

Osodecentx said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Osodecentx said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

Osodecentx said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

---

C. Jordan said:

---

Looks really good for Dems right now.

They can thank Trump and his promotion of awful candidates: Vance, Oz, and Walker, among others.

---

I agree with you on Oz…fetterman is gonna win in PA.

But Vance is a good candidate and is gonna win Ohio.

---

fetterman may not make it to the election.. watch video of him, he is in bad shape. Oz is not great canidate but fetterman is terrible. If he wins, people arent paying attention or voting against Oz Fetterman is bad, Oz is worse. Republicans lose a seat.

Vance is gonna win Ohio.I hope so, I like him. If he wins, Republicans hold a seat they have

Walker is gonna win GA. Nope, Republicans really need to pick up a seat somewhere. I thought this would be easy

Laxalt is leading in NV, watch that one. I think you're right. Republicans flip a seat.

Johnson is -4 in WI according to FoX poll but Fox overstated WI polling by 6.5 in 2020.. this is a horse race folks. I hope you're right. If you are right, Republicans hold a seat.

---

Republicans have a decent shot to pick up that Nevada senate seat. I thought we would pick up Arizona until Trump endorsed a loser.

If everything goes right, Republicanshave 50 senators. BTW, Ohio and Wisconsin are a problem.

Advantage Schumer

---

even 538 shows Walker leading in GA.. dont get so down on this one yet.

Dont look at any driveby media polls, they are done for news and have a really bad track record. They are over sampling Dems consistently.

🚨NEW #PASEN POLL SHOWS INCREDIBLY TIGHT RACE🚨@DrOz 45.9%@JohnFetterman 46.3%
Others: 4.5%
Undecided: 3.3%

Conducted 8/15-8/19, 2,800 Likely Voters

Carleton was the most accurate Senate internal in 2020. Consider giving us a follow to support our new public polling journey.

— Carleton Polling (@CarletonPolling) August 20, 2022

OZ is gaining ground.. same pollster had him down 2.6% a month ago

---

Sure hope you're right

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/

---

RCP avg better than 538 and Cook is garbage-ly blue

---

RCP has Fetterman ahead by 7.5%

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/pa/pennsylvania_senate_oz_vs_fetterman-7695.html

---

Fetterman won his primary in a landslide. Oz won a nailbiter highly contested 3 way primary. It isn't shocking that Fetterman would emerge from that process with a lead.

The key takeaway is that his lead continues to shrink and has been bleeding at a fairly regular rate. The most recent poll has Fetterman leading by 4 [48 to 44].

The other key takeaway is that Fetterman has consistently been capped at 48% and the undecided float has consistently been 7-8%. With Fetterman being well known statewide and his polling being consistently 2-4% short of a majority, that shortfall is very noteworthy.

Like most elections in Pennsylvania, independent voters will decide the election and they tend to wait until late in the process before deciding. Don't see either candidate being really strong with personality voters……that means policy voters [independents] likely carry the day.

Context matters.

Adriacus Peratuun said:

---

Osodecentx said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Osodecentx said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

Osodecentx said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

---

C. Jordan said:

---

Looks really good for Dems right now.

They can thank Trump and his promotion of awful candidates: Vance, Oz, and Walker, among others.

---

I agree with you on Oz…fetterman is gonna win in PA.

But Vance is a good candidate and is gonna win Ohio.

---

fetterman may not make it to the election.. watch video of him, he is in bad shape. Oz is not great canidate but fetterman is terrible. If he wins, people arent paying attention or voting against Oz Fetterman is bad, Oz is worse. Republicans lose a seat.

Vance is gonna win Ohio.I hope so, I like him. If he wins, Republicans hold a seat they have

Walker is gonna win GA. Nope, Republicans really need to pick up a seat somewhere. I thought this would be easy

Laxalt is leading in NV, watch that one. I think you're right. Republicans flip a seat.

Johnson is -4 in WI according to FoX poll but Fox overstated WI polling by 6.5 in 2020.. this is a horse race folks. I hope you're right. If you are right, Republicans hold a seat.

---

Republicans have a decent shot to pick up that Nevada senate seat. I thought we would pick up Arizona until Trump endorsed a loser.

If everything goes right, Republicanshave 50 senators. BTW, Ohio and Wisconsin are a problem.

Advantage Schumer

---

even 538 shows Walker leading in GA.. dont get so down on this one yet.

Dont look at any driveby media polls, they are done for news and have a really bad track record. They are over sampling Dems consistently.

🚨NEW #PASEN POLL SHOWS INCREDIBLY TIGHT RACE🚨@DrOz 45.9%@JohnFetterman 46.3%
Others: 4.5%
Undecided: 3.3%

Conducted 8/15-8/19, 2,800 Likely Voters

Carleton was the most accurate Senate internal in 2020. Consider giving us a follow to support our new public polling journey.

— Carleton Polling (@CarletonPolling) August 20, 2022

OZ is gaining ground.. same pollster had him down 2.6% a month ago

---

Sure hope you're right

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/

---

RCP avg better than 538 and Cook is garbage-ly blue

---

RCP has Fetterman ahead by 7.5%

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/pa/pennsylvania_senate_oz_vs_fetterman-7695.html

---

Fetterman won his primary in a landslide. Oz won a nailbiter highly contested 3 way primary. It isn't shocking that Fetterman would emerge from that process with a lead.

The key takeaway is that his lead continues to shrink and has been bleeding at a fairly regular rate. The most recent poll has Fetterman leading by 4 [48 to 44].

The other key takeaway is that Fetterman has consistently been capped at 48% and the undecided float has consistently been 7-8%. With Fetterman being well known statewide and his polling being consistently 2-4% short of a majority, that shortfall is very noteworthy.

Like most elections in Pennsylvania, independent voters will decide the election and they tend to wait until late in the process before deciding. Don't see either candidate being really strong with personality voters……that means policy voters [independents] likely carry the day.

Context matters.

---

Osodecentx said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Osodecentx said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

Osodecentx said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

---

C. Jordan said:

---

Looks really good for Dems right now.

They can thank Trump and his promotion of awful candidates: Vance, Oz, and Walker, among others.

---

I agree with you on Oz…fetterman is gonna win in PA.

But Vance is a good candidate and is gonna win Ohio.

---

fetterman may not make it to the election.. watch video of him, he is in bad shape. Oz is not great canidate but fetterman is terrible. If he wins, people arent paying attention or voting against Oz Fetterman is bad, Oz is worse. Republicans lose a seat.

Vance is gonna win Ohio.I hope so, I like him. If he wins, Republicans hold a seat they have

Walker is gonna win GA. Nope, Republicans really need to pick up a seat somewhere. I thought this would be easy

Laxalt is leading in NV, watch that one. I think you're right. Republicans flip a seat.

Johnson is -4 in WI according to FoX poll but Fox overstated WI polling by 6.5 in 2020.. this is a horse race folks. I hope you're right. If you are right, Republicans hold a seat.

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Republicans have a decent shot to pick up that Nevada senate seat. I thought we would pick up Arizona until Trump endorsed a loser.

If everything goes right, Republicanshave 50 senators. BTW, Ohio and Wisconsin are a problem.

Advantage Schumer

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even 538 shows Walker leading in GA.. dont get so down on this one yet.

Dont look at any driveby media polls, they are done for news and have a really bad track record. They are over sampling Dems consistently.

🚨NEW #PASEN POLL SHOWS INCREDIBLY TIGHT RACE🚨@DrOz 45.9%@JohnFetterman 46.3%
Others: 4.5%
Undecided: 3.3%

Conducted 8/15-8/19, 2,800 Likely Voters

Carleton was the most accurate Senate internal in 2020. Consider giving us a follow to support our new public polling journey.

— Carleton Polling (@CarletonPolling) August 20, 2022

OZ is gaining ground.. same pollster had him down 2.6% a month ago

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Sure hope you're right

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/

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RCP avg better than 538 and Cook is garbage-ly blue

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RCP has Fetterman ahead by 7.5%

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/pa/pennsylvania_senate_oz_vs_fetterman-7695.html

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yep. remember, averages are a trailing indicator..... Dynamic in PA is, Fetterman had an uncompetitive primary; Oz did not, and took a lot of incoming arty. Takes a while for the redirection of messaging (positives on general issues and negatives on Fetterman) to have an impact.

your source for the OP had some bias. and perhaps the reader has some selection bias as well. but further to my post above about perspective, there's this:

https://gfile.thedispatch.com/p/czech-yourselves-before-you-wreck?triedSigningIn=true

Leadership PACs are overlooked influencers. As leader, a Speaker or Senate Maj. Leader can raise enormous amounts of money, both for their leadership PACs an institution as well as for specific candidates. Pelosi came to Waco for Chet Edwards (fundraiser at Rappoport residence....a very hush, hush affair, it was, but it did happen) to help Chet in his last (losing) race. A few years later, Boehner came to Waco for a fundraiser at Claude Lindsey's riverside manse, hosted by Bill Flores (who was not in a competitive race at the time) to help not Flores' race but for the Boehner PAC itself.

Leaders become leaders by raising money for their caucus.
Members of the caucus climb the leadership ladder by raising money for their caucus AND their leadership.

$34m is a pretty big spend for a statewide race in PA that will probably cost $100m or so.

Adriacus Peratuun said:

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Osodecentx said:

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whiterock said:

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Osodecentx said:

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4th and Inches said:

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Osodecentx said:

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4th and Inches said:

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Redbrickbear said:

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C. Jordan said:

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Looks really good for Dems right now.

They can thank Trump and his promotion of awful candidates: Vance, Oz, and Walker, among others.

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I agree with you on Oz…fetterman is gonna win in PA.

But Vance is a good candidate and is gonna win Ohio.

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fetterman may not make it to the election.. watch video of him, he is in bad shape. Oz is not great canidate but fetterman is terrible. If he wins, people arent paying attention or voting against Oz Fetterman is bad, Oz is worse. Republicans lose a seat.

Vance is gonna win Ohio.I hope so, I like him. If he wins, Republicans hold a seat they have

Walker is gonna win GA. Nope, Republicans really need to pick up a seat somewhere. I thought this would be easy

Laxalt is leading in NV, watch that one. I think you're right. Republicans flip a seat.

Johnson is -4 in WI according to FoX poll but Fox overstated WI polling by 6.5 in 2020.. this is a horse race folks. I hope you're right. If you are right, Republicans hold a seat.

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Republicans have a decent shot to pick up that Nevada senate seat. I thought we would pick up Arizona until Trump endorsed a loser.

If everything goes right, Republicanshave 50 senators. BTW, Ohio and Wisconsin are a problem.

Advantage Schumer

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even 538 shows Walker leading in GA.. dont get so down on this one yet.

Dont look at any driveby media polls, they are done for news and have a really bad track record. They are over sampling Dems consistently.

🚨NEW #PASEN POLL SHOWS INCREDIBLY TIGHT RACE🚨@DrOz 45.9%@JohnFetterman 46.3%
Others: 4.5%
Undecided: 3.3%

Conducted 8/15-8/19, 2,800 Likely Voters

Carleton was the most accurate Senate internal in 2020. Consider giving us a follow to support our new public polling journey.

— Carleton Polling (@CarletonPolling) August 20, 2022

OZ is gaining ground.. same pollster had him down 2.6% a month ago

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Sure hope you're right

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/

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RCP avg better than 538 and Cook is garbage-ly blue

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RCP has Fetterman ahead by 7.5%

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/pa/pennsylvania_senate_oz_vs_fetterman-7695.html

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Fetterman won his primary in a landslide. Oz won a nailbiter highly contested 3 way primary. It isn't shocking that Fetterman would emerge from that process with a lead.

The key takeaway is that his lead continues to shrink and has been bleeding at a fairly regular rate. The most recent poll has Fetterman leading by 4 [48 to 44].

The other key takeaway is that Fetterman has consistently been capped at 48% and the undecided float has consistently been 7-8%. With Fetterman being well known statewide and his polling being consistently 2-4% short of a majority, that shortfall is very noteworthy.

Like most elections in Pennsylvania, independent voters will decide the election and they tend to wait until late in the process before deciding. Don't see either candidate being really strong with personality voters……that means policy voters [independents] likely carry the day.

Context matters.

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more context:

any incumbent politician polling below 50% is at risk of losing an election.

In an open race, undecideds tend to break similarly to the overall vote; in a race with an incumbent on the ballot, undecideds tend to break for the challenger (margins vary).

(yeah, Fetterman is not an incumbent Senator, but he is an incumbent statewide official, so the applicaiton of the metric cannot be discounted)

This is why you have to watch your polling sources..

The University of North Florida Poll blew yet another race, BADLY!

Only missed the DEM Gov primary by about 30 points or so.

'them trees is too damn high'. H. Walker

- KKM

{ sipping coffee }

{ eating whole grain organic toast }