OFFICIAL ELECTION THREAD, 11-8-22

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whiterock
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Osodecentx said:

whiterock said:

Osodecentx said:

4th and Inches said:



Only slightly late Kemp- better late than never!
Damn RINOs

one of the brightest lines on that score is how well a Gov does in turning their state red.

Rick Perry did it. Ron DeSantis did it.

Kemp hasn't. Scott Walker (despite a lot of promise) didn't. Did they try? They'll say they did, but as Bill Parcells observed "at some point, you are your record." Kemp has presided over a red-state solidifying as a purple-state. Walker did not fundamentally change WI from purple to red.

And then they are the the Romneys and Hogans and Christies, etc.... who don't even try. Most blue state Republicans suffer framing bias from just being blue state governors. They cannot conceive of doing what a Perry or DeSantis has done and instead operate within the constraints of a blue state. Implicit in that is avoiding most of the GOP platform, being fearful of appearing to actually embrace much conservatism at all. In that mindset, "conservative" is merely a word which means "not liberal." GOP House caucus seems particularly predilected to elect blue state Republicans to leadership, invariably causing a case of alligator arms toward the party platform, leading to much consternation in the GOP base.

It's hard work changing minds on the meanings of things, to include defining one's opponents. Dems are way better at it.

If you do not work to change or keep your state red, it will not happen. A red state governor has to constantly cajole the donor class to embrace the partisan struggle, or it typically will not. Donor class as a rule is far more interested in access than in partisan nonsense.

Kemp is indeed late to the party.





I thought W Bush turned Texas red. Every statewide office holder since Bush has been Republican
Ann Richard's, Hightower, & plaintiff bar chipped in
It's gotta last beyond one guy......

More importantly, it's gotta go deep.

You have to gain strong majorities in all the house and senate and county level offices. You have to defeat recalcitrant Dems, or get them to switch. It has to be relentless, remorseless. You have to give scoresheets at state convention, to highlight the progress, year after year after year..... The purpose of that is to drain the bench, to deprive the opposing party of viable candidates ready to step & run for higher office. You know you are approaching critical mass when you have aspiring candidates all over the state calculate soberly that they have to run as a Republican because the odds of getting elected as a Dem ar too steep.

To appreciate the significance of that, look at it the other way. Who can the Dems run in Tx? Their bench is short and shallow. 11-ish Senators (mostly urban, with tiny geographic footprint districts). Sure, they'll have 50-70 House members, again, mostly from small urban districts with 170-180k constituencies. Those are small fundraising bases. 4-5 Mayors (big liberals) are a better options....much larger constituencies and fundraising bases, but typically not career politicians. They have a dozen Congress-types, buy Congress is prototypically not a great platform to run for statewide office in any large state. Not only will geography and fundraising base be limited, but they are "off the screen" on state-wide politics....not historically associated with state level issue and the cannot easily usurp their Congressional agenda to posture on state level issues.

Perry was remorseless......

Kemp?
Lost two statewide Senate seats.
one was an incumbent.
one was his own appointee.

Not a strong party leader, Kemp.....
Osodecentx
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whiterock said:


Kemp?
Lost two statewide Senate seats.
one was an incumbent.
one was his own appointee.

Not a strong party leader, Kemp.....
The US Senate losses in 2020 are on Trump.
Oldbear83
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Osodecentx said:

whiterock said:


Kemp?
Lost two statewide Senate seats.
one was an incumbent.
one was his own appointee.

Not a strong party leader, Kemp.....
The US Senate losses in 2020 are on Trump. butthole-hurt voters who stayed home.
FIFY
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
ATL Bear
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Oldbear83 said:

Osodecentx said:

whiterock said:


Kemp?
Lost two statewide Senate seats.
one was an incumbent.
one was his own appointee.

Not a strong party leader, Kemp.....
The US Senate losses in 2020 are on Trump. butthole-hurt voters who stayed home.
FIFY
It was Trump and the pandemic. Turnout was record-breaking. The absentee ballot fiasco was the pandemic contribution. Ironically, Kemp and Raffensberger (two people Trump went after hard) fixed that issue for this past and future elections. You know, the bill that cost Atlanta the MLB All Star Game and returned "Jim Crow" according to Democrats.
Osodecentx
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ATL Bear said:

Oldbear83 said:

Osodecentx said:

whiterock said:


Kemp?
Lost two statewide Senate seats.
one was an incumbent.
one was his own appointee.

Not a strong party leader, Kemp.....
The US Senate losses in 2020 are on Trump. butthole-hurt voters who stayed home.
FIFY
It was Trump and the pandemic. Turnout was record-breaking. The absentee ballot fiasco was the pandemic contribution. Ironically, Kemp and Raffensberger (two people Trump went after hard) fixed that issue for this past and future elections. You know, the bill that cost Atlanta the MLB All Star Game and returned "Jim Crow" according to Democrats.
Exactly
4th and Inches
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Finally, somebody with a braincell on the GOP side..
Adopt-a-Bear 2024

#90 COOPER LANZ ( DL )
CLASS Junior
HT/WT 6' 3", 288 lbs


#50 KAIAN ROBERTS-DAY ( DL )
CLASS Sophomore
HT/WT 6' 3", 273 lbs
KOKQB70
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Love Harmeet!
KOKQB70
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Does Herschel lose ?
Osodecentx
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KOKQB70 said:

Does Herschel lose ?


Yes
Osodecentx
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30% of GA vote in (no idea from where; Warnock 56% -, 44%
4th and Inches
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KOKQB70 said:

Does Herschel lose ?
lol, is this a serious question? It will be a miracle if he wins
Adopt-a-Bear 2024

#90 COOPER LANZ ( DL )
CLASS Junior
HT/WT 6' 3", 288 lbs


#50 KAIAN ROBERTS-DAY ( DL )
CLASS Sophomore
HT/WT 6' 3", 273 lbs
KOKQB70
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Miracle?
4th and Inches
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KOKQB70 said:

Miracle?
closer than I expected so far..
Adopt-a-Bear 2024

#90 COOPER LANZ ( DL )
CLASS Junior
HT/WT 6' 3", 288 lbs


#50 KAIAN ROBERTS-DAY ( DL )
CLASS Sophomore
HT/WT 6' 3", 273 lbs
Married A Horn
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Warnock won. Places are calling it.
Canada2017
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Married A Horn said:

Warnock won. Places are calling it.


No surprise.

Another loss for Trump .
Harrison Bergeron
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In the typical lack of self-awareness meme, CNN was claiming "partisanship" was the only reason the election was close and that Walker was a terrible candidate ... never mind:
1. Warnock led a "church" camp where myriad male campers reported being sexually assaulted by male camp staff
2. Warnock tried to kill his wife and abused here
3. Warnock evicted myriad poor African-American families for less than $100 in back rent

Yeah, good "pastor." Better "senator." Sure he'll be a billionaire before he rapes taxpayers.
J.R.
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Canada2017 said:

Married A Horn said:

Warnock won. Places are calling it.


No surprise.

Another loss for Trump .
yup. Again, True lost the Presidency, Congress , Senate and his candidates are getting trounced. Who in the hell would think that getting behind Walker would be smart? Just proves Trump is just an idiot!
Canada2017
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J.R. said:

Canada2017 said:

Married A Horn said:

Warnock won. Places are calling it.


No surprise.

Another loss for Trump .
yup. Again, True lost the Presidency, Congress , Senate and his candidates are getting trounced. Who in the hell would think that getting behind Walker would be smart? Just proves Trump is just an idiot!



At this point the only remaining individuals pushing for Trump to win the 2024 Republican nomination…..

are Democrats.
whiterock
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ATL Bear said:

Oldbear83 said:

Osodecentx said:

whiterock said:


Kemp?
Lost two statewide Senate seats.
one was an incumbent.
one was his own appointee.

Not a strong party leader, Kemp.....
The US Senate losses in 2020 are on Trump. butthole-hurt voters who stayed home.
FIFY
It was Trump and the pandemic. Turnout was record-breaking. The absentee ballot fiasco was the pandemic contribution. Ironically, Kemp and Raffensberger (two people Trump went after hard) fixed that issue for this past and future elections. You know, the bill that cost Atlanta the MLB All Star Game and returned "Jim Crow" according to Democrats.
They made a fix (despite denying there was a problem) because they knew Trump was right, but they didn't fix it enough.

That's four Senate election losses in a row, squeakers all, by candidates endorsed/appointed by Trump and Kemp.

GA is officially a purple state. Dems will use their machine to slowly eat away the state level offices, then down into the state house. That will take a few cycles. Unless GA moderate Republicans wake up and realize they're living in a dream world.
Osodecentx
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whiterock said:

ATL Bear said:

Oldbear83 said:

Osodecentx said:

whiterock said:


Kemp?
Lost two statewide Senate seats.
one was an incumbent.
one was his own appointee.

Not a strong party leader, Kemp.....
The US Senate losses in 2020 are on Trump. butthole-hurt voters who stayed home.
FIFY
It was Trump and the pandemic. Turnout was record-breaking. The absentee ballot fiasco was the pandemic contribution. Ironically, Kemp and Raffensberger (two people Trump went after hard) fixed that issue for this past and future elections. You know, the bill that cost Atlanta the MLB All Star Game and returned "Jim Crow" according to Democrats.
They made a fix (despite denying there was a problem) because they knew Trump was right, but they didn't fix it enough.

That's four Senate election losses in a row, squeakers all, by candidates endorsed/appointed by Trump and Kemp.

GA is officially a purple state. Dems will use their machine to slowly eat away the state level offices, then down into the state house. That will take a few cycles. Unless GA moderate Republicans wake up and realize they're living in a dream world.
The only Georgia state wide Republican to lose in 2022 was Walker
Redbrickbear
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Canada2017 said:

J.R. said:

Canada2017 said:

Married A Horn said:

Warnock won. Places are calling it.


No surprise.

Another loss for Trump .
yup. Again, True lost the Presidency, Congress , Senate and his candidates are getting trounced. Who in the hell would think that getting behind Walker would be smart? Just proves Trump is just an idiot!



At this point the only remaining individuals pushing for Trump to win the 2024 Republican nomination…..

are Democrats.


It's not like it matters anyway.

DeSantis is not gonna win the Presidency.

Trump only won in 2016 because Hillary Clinton is almost universally disliked as a person.

And because the White working class in the Midwest (blue dog democrats historically) supported him because he was an outside candidate who they thought might shake up the system and actual change something…stop the importation of fentanyl that is killing their sons, the endless immigrant colonization, the endless wars, and the outsourcing of working class jobs.

Now they realize nothing is gonna change…and no President can or will stop it.
Canada2017
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Redbrickbear said:

Canada2017 said:

J.R. said:

Canada2017 said:

Married A Horn said:

Warnock won. Places are calling it.


No surprise.

Another loss for Trump .
yup. Again, True lost the Presidency, Congress , Senate and his candidates are getting trounced. Who in the hell would think that getting behind Walker would be smart? Just proves Trump is just an idiot!



At this point the only remaining individuals pushing for Trump to win the 2024 Republican nomination…..

are Democrats.


It's not like it matters anyway.

DeSantis is not gonna win the Presidency.




You might be right .

There are far more registered Democrats than Republicans and younger independents vote overwhelmingly for Democrats .

There are millions of illegals now in the United States and their children can vote once they reach the age of 18. That trend is only going to increase .

Mail in balloting and voter harvesting obviously provides a major boost for Democrats in key cities .

Trump could very well have been the last Republican occupant of the White House for the next 30 years .

Irregardless, DeSantis remains Republicans best chance.




Osodecentx
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How did Kari Lake perform in Maricopa County, AZ, specifically, compared with other Republicans?
Ms. Lake received 77,342 fewer votes than GOP state Treasurer Kimberly Yee.
Ms. Lake received 39,165 fewer votes than the combined GOP U.S. House candidates.
Ms. Lake received 23,901 fewer votes than GOP county prosecutor Rachel Mitchell.
These figures are especially striking because voter interest wanes down the ballot. Compared with the Governor's race, 78,000 fewer people voted for local prosecutor. Yet Ms. Mitchell still won more raw ballots than Ms. Lake.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/kari-lake-is-the-new-stacey-abrams-arizona-gubernatorial-election-11669849107
Jack Bauer
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RD2WINAGNBEAR86
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J.R. said:

Canada2017 said:

Married A Horn said:

Warnock won. Places are calling it.


No surprise.

Another loss for Trump .
yup. Again, True lost the Presidency, Congress , Senate and his candidates are getting trounced. Who in the hell would think that getting behind Walker would be smart? Just proves Trump is just an idiot!

Half of the country just loves them some abortion, free stuff (college debt forgiveness), rampant crime, high inflation, open borders, and Socialism. And there is nothing the rest of us can do about it.

My vote no longer counts. It is what it is. We are all so screwed!
"Never underestimate Joe's ability to **** things up!"

-- Barack Obama
ATL Bear
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whiterock said:

ATL Bear said:

Oldbear83 said:

Osodecentx said:

whiterock said:


Kemp?
Lost two statewide Senate seats.
one was an incumbent.
one was his own appointee.

Not a strong party leader, Kemp.....
The US Senate losses in 2020 are on Trump. butthole-hurt voters who stayed home.
FIFY
It was Trump and the pandemic. Turnout was record-breaking. The absentee ballot fiasco was the pandemic contribution. Ironically, Kemp and Raffensberger (two people Trump went after hard) fixed that issue for this past and future elections. You know, the bill that cost Atlanta the MLB All Star Game and returned "Jim Crow" according to Democrats.
They made a fix (despite denying there was a problem) because they knew Trump was right, but they didn't fix it enough.

That's four Senate election losses in a row, squeakers all, by candidates endorsed/appointed by Trump and Kemp.

GA is officially a purple state. Dems will use their machine to slowly eat away the state level offices, then down into the state house. That will take a few cycles. Unless GA moderate Republicans wake up and realize they're living in a dream world.
There's only one group living in an alternate world, and it's the Trump loyalists. The one inkling of something you're correct about is that Kemp made a mistake choosing Loeffler over Collins.

This race? Kemp wanted no part of Walker until he was forced/begged to. Everyone forgets he was insulted by Trump consistently during the primary as Trump pumped Walker. He wasn't wanted until he was.

But once again a political novice with nothing but name recognition and a Trump endorsement goes down.
ATL Bear
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Osodecentx said:

How did Kari Lake perform in Maricopa County, AZ, specifically, compared with other Republicans?
Ms. Lake received 77,342 fewer votes than GOP state Treasurer Kimberly Yee.
Ms. Lake received 39,165 fewer votes than the combined GOP U.S. House candidates.
Ms. Lake received 23,901 fewer votes than GOP county prosecutor Rachel Mitchell.
These figures are especially striking because voter interest wanes down the ballot. Compared with the Governor's race, 78,000 fewer people voted for local prosecutor. Yet Ms. Mitchell still won more raw ballots than Ms. Lake.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/kari-lake-is-the-new-stacey-abrams-arizona-gubernatorial-election-11669849107

This is the break that the Trumpists conveniently ignore. It's all over the place.
Redbrickbear
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Hard to root for the GOP when they view my people this way….



Wrecks Quan Dough
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ATL Bear said:

Osodecentx said:

How did Kari Lake perform in Maricopa County, AZ, specifically, compared with other Republicans?
Ms. Lake received 77,342 fewer votes than GOP state Treasurer Kimberly Yee.
Ms. Lake received 39,165 fewer votes than the combined GOP U.S. House candidates.
Ms. Lake received 23,901 fewer votes than GOP county prosecutor Rachel Mitchell.
These figures are especially striking because voter interest wanes down the ballot. Compared with the Governor's race, 78,000 fewer people voted for local prosecutor. Yet Ms. Mitchell still won more raw ballots than Ms. Lake.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/kari-lake-is-the-new-stacey-abrams-arizona-gubernatorial-election-11669849107

This is the break that the Trumpists conveniently ignore. It's all over the place.
Redbrickbear
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J.B.Katz
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Osodecentx said:

whiterock said:


Kemp?
Lost two statewide Senate seats.
one was an incumbent.
one was his own appointee.

Not a strong party leader, Kemp.....
The US Senate losses in 2020 are on Trump.
This is the Republican line these days: absolve the Republican Party and put all the blame on Trump.

But Republicans fully supported Trump's candidacy as their party standard-bearer in 2015 and they both put up with and vehemently denied his grifting, his nepotism, his bending US foreign policy to Putin's wishes & firing long-time, skilled patriots like Alexander Vindman and Fiona Hill, whose expertise and experience we really need now; his election lie, his politicizing the DOJ, his firing people by tweet during a revolving door administration and his insurrection, for which most Republicans refused to vote to impeach him & those who did were primaried by Trump candidates supported by the party.

Now there's the weak response to his plan to end our democracy by claiming the constitution he swore an oath to protect and defend should be suspended to put him back in power (b/c it's likely the only way he's going to avoid criminal charges going forward, being as how his companies were just jury-convicted of tax fraud on every count brought before the court.

Lindsey Graham may lean whichever way the wind's blowing on any giving day, but the man isn't stupid. He saw it coming.



But, like his colleagues and Republican voters who "held their noses" to vote for Trump, he couldn't do what my responsible, old-guard Republican big-donor friend said McConnell and Graham could and would do when Trump was elected in 2016: control Trump's worst impulses
Jack Bauer
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Redbrickbear said:



The RNC spend all of this money for a net loss of 1, losing to a man who makes Joe Biden look like Michael Jordan.
Redbrickbear
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J.B.Katz said:

Osodecentx said:

whiterock said:


Kemp?
Lost two statewide Senate seats.
one was an incumbent.
one was his own appointee.

Not a strong party leader, Kemp.....
The US Senate losses in 2020 are on Trump.
This is the Republican line these days: absolve the Republican Party and put all the blame on Trump….

But, like his colleagues and Republican voters who "held their noses" to vote for Trump, he couldn't do what my responsible, old-guard Republican big-donor friend said McConnell and Graham could and would do when Trump was elected in 2016: control Trump's worst impulses


Trumps impulses were right though….

He wanted to build a border wall, not rename military bases or take down statues, not get into a proxy war with Russia, not export jobs overseas, and put in Conservative judges.

Senate GOP only agreed to support the judges.
Jack Bauer
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Never let a grift go away...

Osodecentx
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ATL Bear said:

Osodecentx said:

How did Kari Lake perform in Maricopa County, AZ, specifically, compared with other Republicans?
Ms. Lake received 77,342 fewer votes than GOP state Treasurer Kimberly Yee.
Ms. Lake received 39,165 fewer votes than the combined GOP U.S. House candidates.
Ms. Lake received 23,901 fewer votes than GOP county prosecutor Rachel Mitchell.
These figures are especially striking because voter interest wanes down the ballot. Compared with the Governor's race, 78,000 fewer people voted for local prosecutor. Yet Ms. Mitchell still won more raw ballots than Ms. Lake.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/kari-lake-is-the-new-stacey-abrams-arizona-gubernatorial-election-11669849107

This is the break that the Trumpists conveniently ignore. It's all over the place.
From WaPo
Democrats padded their Senate majority on Tuesday night thanks in part to a rebuke of the Republican candidate in Georgia's suburbs.

Turnout was somewhat lower in Tuesday's runoff than in the November general election, by about 400,000 voters, but Sen. Raphael G. Warnock (D) more than doubled his lead over Republican Herschel Walker. The Democrat led by about 95,000 votes as of Wednesday, besting his 37,000-vote margin in the general election.
 
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