Echelon Insights poll: By 39 Point Margin, Voters say their Vote in November is More about reducing INFLATION than Protecting "Abortion rights" pic.twitter.com/UzMVtW9UvU

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 25, 2022

🚨 NEW GEORGIA POLL by Emerson

SEN
(R) Herschel Walker 46% (+2)
(D) Raphael Warnock 44%

GOV
(R) Brian Kemp 48% (+4)
(D) Stacey Abrams 44%

PRES
(R) Donald Trump 51% (+5)
(D) Joe Biden 46%

GEN BALLOT
Republicans 51% (+5)
Democrats 46%

600 LV | 08/28-29https://t.co/0Zw6xD5nLv pic.twitter.com/De5BkdmCPu

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 30, 2022

4th and Inches said:

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🚨 NEW GEORGIA POLL by Emerson

SEN
(R) Herschel Walker 46% (+2)
(D) Raphael Warnock 44%

GOV
(R) Brian Kemp 48% (+4)
(D) Stacey Abrams 44%

PRES
(R) Donald Trump 51% (+5)
(D) Joe Biden 46%

GEN BALLOT
Republicans 51% (+5)
Democrats 46%

600 LV | 08/28-29https://t.co/0Zw6xD5nLv pic.twitter.com/De5BkdmCPu

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 30, 2022

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Are Emerson and Echelon reliable polls?

4th and Inches said:

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🚨 NEW GEORGIA POLL by Emerson

SEN
(R) Herschel Walker 46% (+2)
(D) Raphael Warnock 44%

GOV
(R) Brian Kemp 48% (+4)
(D) Stacey Abrams 44%

PRES
(R) Donald Trump 51% (+5)
(D) Joe Biden 46%

GEN BALLOT
Republicans 51% (+5)
Democrats 46%

600 LV | 08/28-29https://t.co/0Zw6xD5nLv pic.twitter.com/De5BkdmCPu

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 30, 2022

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RCP has Warnock by 3, but I believe the margin is narrowing (includes Emerson). Nice trend

Osodecentx said:

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4th and Inches said:

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🚨 NEW GEORGIA POLL by Emerson

SEN
(R) Herschel Walker 46% (+2)
(D) Raphael Warnock 44%

GOV
(R) Brian Kemp 48% (+4)
(D) Stacey Abrams 44%

PRES
(R) Donald Trump 51% (+5)
(D) Joe Biden 46%

GEN BALLOT
Republicans 51% (+5)
Democrats 46%

600 LV | 08/28-29https://t.co/0Zw6xD5nLv pic.twitter.com/De5BkdmCPu

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 30, 2022

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Are Emerson and Echelon reliable polls?

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up to you to decide.. polling is a funny thing, you could be good and a couple election cycles later, you stink.. it helps when you get local and national polls that are similar.

Example- two recent AZ polls, gov race came out within a point of each other but the senate race was off by about 4 points.

4th and Inches said:

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Osodecentx said:

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4th and Inches said:

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🚨 NEW GEORGIA POLL by Emerson

SEN
(R) Herschel Walker 46% (+2)
(D) Raphael Warnock 44%

GOV
(R) Brian Kemp 48% (+4)
(D) Stacey Abrams 44%

PRES
(R) Donald Trump 51% (+5)
(D) Joe Biden 46%

GEN BALLOT
Republicans 51% (+5)
Democrats 46%

600 LV | 08/28-29https://t.co/0Zw6xD5nLv pic.twitter.com/De5BkdmCPu

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 30, 2022

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Are Emerson and Echelon reliable polls?

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up to you to decide.. polling is a funny thing, you could be good and a couple election cycles later, you stink.. it helps when you get local and national polls that are similar.

Example- two recent AZ polls, gov race came out within a point of each other but the senate race was off by about 4 points.

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And Warnock is an incumbent at 44%. Incumbents polling below 50% are at risk. In that situation, most of the undecideds have already decided....not to vote for the incumbent. Whether or not they show up and vote for someone else is a question mark, but if they do, more likely it will be against the incumbent. Obama 2012 race is a good example of how an unpopular incumbent has to win - turn the race into a referendum not on himself but on Romney, by making it a mudfest, so that all the voters he'd lost would be almost equally unwilling to show up & vote for Romney. It worked.

The real trick for Walker will be to open up at least a 3-pt lead. That will put it outside the margin of fraud. Fulton County can finagle a win in a close race, but if it's 3-4pts, the math gets too hard...it gets too obvious. We'll know when the Warnock campaign thinks the race is slipping away - when they start getting nasty.

Just my opinion today and the dynamic can change quickly. I used to believe voter started serious consideration of candidates after Labor Day. Now I don't know.

RCP has the Senate at 46 Democrat and 46 Republican before these races are counted.
These Senate races are rated as toss ups by Real Clear Politics. I'm counting victories for Democrats in the following states: AZ, PA, and WI. I'm giving victories to Republicans in the following states: NC, OH.
TBD in GA, NV & NH.
If Republicans can pull out the 3 TBD races, they'll have 51 votes. Republicans are in better shape today than I thought they would be.


AZ Kelly (D) is the incumbent and has been consistently ahead by 4-6percent.
GA Warnock is the incumbent and has been ahead by mid-single digits. Latest poll shows a little momentum for Walker. R's need to flip this seat.
NH Hassan(D) is the incumbent. The Republican primary occurs soon and the likely winner (Bolduc) trails Hassan by low single digits.
NC Open (currently Republican) The Republican (Budd) has led by low single digits.
NV Masto (D) Polling has been all over the place
PA Open (R) Democrat has been consistently ahead.
WI Johnson (R ) Democrat challenger has consistently been ahead by mid single digits
OH- Open (R ) Republican has been consistenly ahead by low to mid single digis. Latest polling is encouraging.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/senate/

polling is so hard to trust nowadays. are they actually calling folks on the phone still? texting? ive no idea on the methodology.

hard to believe Vance is going to win OH. Same for OZ in PA.

ScruffyD said:

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polling is so hard to trust nowadays. are they actually calling folks on the phone still? texting? ive no idea on the methodology.

hard to believe Vance is going to win OH. Same for OZ in PA.

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I have no idea on the methodology of the polls.

I don't think Oz can do it, but Vance campaign seems to have stabilized. OH has been a reliable Republican state lately.

I am still out on AZ but I think GOP gets PA, OH, GA, NC, NV..

AZ gets me because Lake is beating the opponent in basically all polling but Masters has no support from washington. If he cant get the big GOP guys on board then AZ may keep Kelly as Senator.

It plays to what Sam posted, the GOP is divided and they are backing off Masters in AZ who is MAGA for dumping money into OZ campaign who is moderate

Masters was MAGA until last night. Same for being unapologetic Pro Life. He is shifting on both.

Kemp will win the governorship. Walker is closing ground. He may not win but it will be closer than anticipated. If we could have run a better candidate it wouldn't be close.

ScruffyD said:

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Masters was MAGA until last night. Same for being unapologetic Pro Life. He is shifting on both.

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You may have jumped the gun there, buddy...

I'm declaring war on Joe Biden's dysfunctional affirmative action regime https://t.co/SaYqQRen0X pic.twitter.com/8OU9YLWqA6

— Blake Masters (@bgmasters) August 29, 2022

doesnt have anything to do with his shifting stances on being an election denier and Pro Life no exceptions.

this video is to distract from that.

next week Hunter will be leading the migrant caravan and our kids will come home from school unabashedly gay.

Osodecentx said:

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Just my opinion today and the dynamic can change quickly. I used to believe voter started serious consideration of candidates after Labor Day. Now I don't know.

RCP has the Senate at 46 Democrat and 46 Republican before these races are counted.
These Senate races are rated as toss ups by Real Clear Politics. I'm counting victories for Democrats in the following states: AZ, PA, and WI. I'm giving victories to Republicans in the following states: NC, OH.
TBD in GA, NV & NH.
If Republicans can pull out the 3 TBD races, they'll have 51 votes. Republicans are in better shape today than I thought they would be.


AZ Kelly (D) is the incumbent and has been consistently ahead by 4-6percent.
GA Warnock is the incumbent and has been ahead by mid-single digits. Latest poll shows a little momentum for Walker. R's need to flip this seat.
NH Hassan(D) is the incumbent. The Republican primary occurs soon and the likely winner (Bolduc) trails Hassan by low single digits.
NC Open (currently Republican) The Republican (Budd) has led by low single digits.
NV Masto (D) Polling has been all over the place
PA Open (R) Democrat has been consistently ahead.
WI Johnson (R ) Democrat challenger has consistently been ahead by mid single digits
OH- Open (R ) Republican has been consistenly ahead by low to mid single digis. Latest polling is encouraging.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/senate/

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Averages are starting to show polls are just now starting to move the direction they should given incredibly bad conditions for Dems.

I posted Masters' tweet above to show he's coming hard MAGA after a weak Democrat candidate, a guy with no warmth, no eloquence, and nothing really commend him other than being an astronaut and his wife got shot. At some point, his own record starts mattering and it's pretty down-the-line Democrat in a cycle where being a Democrat is not where you would want to be. I think the polls will tighten.

Walker will win, and Hassan is in trouble....may be the surprise of the cycle.

Johnson polls terribly and at this point 6 years ago he was down double digits...SRCC pulled funding. He's down 2 points in the last poll and will likely win his race.

Laxalt will beat Masto.

PA will be fun to watch. The GOP primary beat everyone up badly and Oz is still trying to close the deal with his base. Saving grace is that Fetterman is such a weak candidate. This race will be competitive, although I worry that Oz will not be able to open up a fraud-proof margin.

I think safe money is on GOP +1 in the Senate. Very good outcome given that Dems were only defending 10 seats. That sets GOP up nicely for 2024, when Dems will be defending 20 in what may well be an even tougher cycle for them.

ATL Bear said:

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Kemp will win the governorship. Walker is closing ground. He may not win but it will be closer than anticipated. If we could have run a better candidate it wouldn't be close.

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I'm expecting Kemp to win. His name is on the ballot and I would be very surprised if there are any voting shenanigans in Georgia in 2022.

A bunch of the opinions above are citing really poor data.

Polling data and averages:

even websites such as RealClearPolitics admit the bias…..and then double down on it.

look at their list of polling agents, look at their historical analysis of alignment against actual results, and then ask yourself:

when they admit that 75+% of their polling agents trend left while less than 25% trend right, why do they equally weight the polling results when doing their polling average?

why do they use really out of date polls in doing averages?

why do they wholly fail to quantify polling trends?

what are the polling trends? what are the surrounding circumstances?

Advertising data:

money is money is money. the source of the money is irrelevant when comparing campaign advertising. It doesn't matter whether the funds come from the campaign, the national party funds, or outside dark money. Fixating on the source of the funds makes little sense if totally ignoring the totality of advertising. The [whatever party] pulled funds from this campaign and sent then to this state. Without context, that data can be [and often is] very misleading.

Hidden data in polls:

When an incumbent can never seem to jump above 44-46% and is only leading in the polls by 2-4%, that incumbent is in danger. Name recognition matters. Hard cap in polling matters.

ask about the polling trends. ask about the polling agent. how large is the uncommitted group?

Historical data:

The VAST majority of the time, late break is focused on financial issues. People vote their pocketbooks. Late breaking voters vote their pocketbooks at an extremely high rate.

Security is the one item that can trump finances. The only current security issue is border security.

Two months is forever in politics. Forever. Forever.

There are very few [if any] candidates in the key races with high like-ability. No Reagan, No Obama. The key races are unlikely to be won, they are far more likely to be lost.


What to watch:

poll #s about top issues. poll #s of uncommitted voters. pollster. Polling trends.

99% of what is cited above is basically nonsense.

Adriacus Peratuun said:

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A bunch of the opinions above are citing really poor data.

Polling data and averages:

even websites such as RealClearPolitics admit the bias…..and then double down on it.

look at their list of polling agents, look at their historical analysis of alignment against actual results, and then ask yourself:

when they admit that 75+% of their polling agents trend left while less than 25% trend right, why do they equally weight the polling results when doing their polling average?

why do they use really out of date polls in doing averages?

why do they wholly fail to quantify polling trends?

what are the polling trends? what are the surrounding circumstances?

Advertising data:

money is money is money. the source of the money is irrelevant when comparing campaign advertising. It doesn't matter whether the funds come from the campaign, the national party funds, or outside dark money. Fixating on the source of the funds makes little sense if totally ignoring the totality of advertising. The [whatever party] pulled funds from this campaign and sent then to this state. Without context, that data can be [and often is] very misleading.

Hidden data in polls:

When an incumbent can never see, to jump above 44-46% and is only leading in the polls by 2-4%, that incumbent is in danger. Name recognition matters. Hard cap in polling matters.

ask about the polling trends. ask about the polling agent. how large is the uncommitted group?

Historical data:

The VAST majority of the time, late break is focused on financial issues. People vote their pocketbooks. Late breaking voters vote their pocketbooks at an extremely high rate.

Security is the one item that can trump finances. The only current security issue is border security.

Two months is forever in politics. Forever. Forever.

There are very few [if any] candidates in the key races with high like-ability. No Reagan, No Obama. The key races are unlikely to be won, they are far more likely to be lost.


What to watch:

poll #s about top issues. poll #s of uncommitted voters. pollster. Polling trends.

99% of what is cited above is basically nonsense.

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Very important stat there in bold. When incumbents in that situation turn their races negative, they're trying to dispirit the opponents' bases and make the undecideds unwilling to show up to vote at all.

The 75% of the polls that skew left are primarily doing so for two reasons. First, news polls are there to make news, and runaway races are not news. So they will try to the extent possible to make races competitive or find counter-intuitive narratives (like Democrats being surprisingly competitive). Second, keeping races competitive helps fundraising and most of those polling firms have political clients, so......

The three most accurate pollsters last coupla cycles....all GOP.

If you didnt believe walker was up in GA, NBC is already running negative against him.. a bit early unless the polling is accurate.

4th and Inches said:

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If you didnt believe walker was up in GA, NBC is already running negative against him.. a bit early unless the polling is accurate.

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they have to keep Walker from closing his polling gap with Kemp voters, which he probably will mostly do.

CD Media Big Data Poll-

OZ is 3.8% down with Fetterman under 44%. OZ is looking better.

Also, Trump beating Biden by 7 in the potential 2024 PA rematch. Trump +12 with PA indies. Being outside the margin of error for a canidate, Thats never happened in PA polling since Obama.

4th and Inches said:

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CD Media Big Data Poll-

OZ is 3.8% down with Fetterman under 44%. OZ is looking better.

Also, Trump beating Biden by 7 in the potential 2024 PA rematch. Trump +12 with PA indies. Being outside the margin of error for a canidate, Thats never happened in PA polling since Obama.

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I like the trend
McConnell PAC starting to spend

Doc Holliday said:

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You think Trump is bad for the GOP?

A Wisconsin school district filed a Title IX complaint against three middle schoolers, accusing them of sexual harassment for using the wrong pronouns when addressing another student.

This is the kind of stuff you support and you don't realize is absolutely insane and bad for democrats.

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It's odd how sexual harrasment has become so broad over the years. It's almost like they generalized so that they democrats can create victims.

1pm today at the PA Trump rally.. Biden cant pull a crowd like this at show time, this is tailgating for the Trump rally

Folks I know the GA, WA, & NY #poll numbers are surprising but we at @Trafalgar_Group have seen a big shift in favor of non incumbents since #Biden announced his #studentloanforgiveness package. No other issue this cycle has enraged middle and working class voters more than this

— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) September 3, 2022

4th and Inches said:

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Folks I know the GA, WA, & NY #poll numbers are surprising but we at @Trafalgar_Group have seen a big shift in favor of non incumbents since #Biden announced his #studentloanforgiveness package. No other issue this cycle has enraged middle and working class voters more than this

— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) September 3, 2022

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Trump Diligently Working To Help Dems Hold Senate So People Will Miss Him Even More By 2024
MAR-A-LAGO, FL Former President Trump has continued his steadfast work helping the Democrats retain control of the Senate, so that everyone will really, really miss him by the time 2024 gets here.
"Look how bad everything is getting! It's so terrible!" said Trump, cackling. "Two more years of these losers, the whole country will beg to have me back!"
According to sources, President Trump hatched the plan shortly after the 2020 election. "It was genius, everyone said so," said Mr. Trump. "I just told Republicans in Georgia to not bother voting in the Senate runoff. Next thing you know - surprise! The Democrats pull off the victory. Then they were able to appoint all sorts of horrible people to run the country, be on the Supreme Court, pass terrible laws, whatever. Totally disastrous for the Republican party and for our beautiful country! Sad. Bet they miss me now!"
Pundits wondered how Mr. Trump could possibly still damage the Republicans' chances after GOP scored such a massive upset victory in the Virginia governor's race, where Biden had won handily. "We really didn't account for how effectively Trump could elevate disastrous candidates like Dr. Oz," said a Republican Senator on condition of anonymity. "We also were caught off guard that after Trump took over the bulk of GOP fundraising, he would then decline to use the funds to help Senate candidates. So now we have lousy candidates and no money, basically guaranteeing Democrats a Senate victory. Well played, Mr. Trump. Well played."
At publishing time, Trump had agreed to come hold a rally in Pennsylvania, provided he didn't have to use any of the loser GOP candidates' names during his speech.
https://babylonbee.com/news/trump-diligently-working-to-help-dems-hold-senate-so-people-will-miss-him-even-more-by-2024

Oso burning midnight oil to accomplish what he insists should not happen.

whiterock said:

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Oso burning midnight oil to accomplish what he insists should not happen.

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Babylon Bee?

Osodecentx said:

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whiterock said:

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Oso burning midnight oil to accomplish what he insists should not happen.

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Babylon Bee?

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That story is one of dozens they've put out in the last 4 days.

What percentage of your posts here have been about the issue you insist we should not be talking about?

whiterock said:

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Osodecentx said:

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whiterock said:

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Oso burning midnight oil to accomplish what he insists should not happen.

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Babylon Bee?

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That story is one of dozens they've put out in the last 4 days.

What percentage of your posts here have been about the issue you insist we should not be talking about?

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You need a sense of humor. The Bee is a parody, but it must make you feel threatened.

Don't mean to make you uncomfortable, but ...
https://babylonbee.com/news/new-report-indicates-biden-quiet-quit-the-presidency-months-ago

The Bee is great!

4th and Inches said:

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The Bee is great!

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Biden Explains We Can Only Come Together As A Nation By Exterminating The Republican Half
WASHINGTON, D.C. In a stirring call for unity and peace in America, President Biden today called for killing off half the country.
"It's real simple, folks! " said President Biden. "America can be united if we can just murder everyone who disagrees with me. Peace in our time, Jack!"
While most Democrats agreed with Biden's understatedly brilliant plan, some expressed concern that he was getting ahead of himself. "We've only just recently introduced the idea that anyone who disagrees with us is a dangerous extremist who deserves to die," said DNC Chair Jaime Harrison. "You've got to give that a little more time to marinate before we really start taking them out."
Republicans argued that telling people you disagree with to die isn't really unity, but to no avail. "Hey, I tried asking nicely for you to stop disagreeing with me," said Biden. "But you Republicans are making unity impossible by insisting on saying I'm wrong. So we've got to do what any good democracy does - kill all of you."
At publishing time, Biden accused Republicans of violence after they reportedly started buying guns to defend themselves from extermination.
https://babylonbee.com/news/biden-explains-we-can-only-come-together-as-a-nation-by-exterminating-the-republican-half

whiterock said:

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Osodecentx said:

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whiterock said:

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Oso burning midnight oil to accomplish what he insists should not happen.

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Babylon Bee?

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That story is one of dozens they've put out in the last 4 days.

What percentage of your posts here have been about the issue you insist we should not be talking about?

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FBI Says The Documents In Trump's Possession Were So Classified They Were Printed With Invisible Ink On Invisible Paper
WASHINGTON, DC Officials from the Department of Justice and the Federal Bureau of Investigation were forced to defend themselves today as news came out that many of the file folders confiscated in the raid of former President Donald Trump's residence at Mar-A-Lago were empty.
"There's an easy explanation for all of this," said FBI spokesperson Gaby Rosca in a prepared statement. "The fact of the matter is, many of the documents Mr. Trump had in his possession were so classified and contained such sensitive information that they had to be printed with invisible ink on invisible paper. This is a common practice at the higher levels of government so that there is no paper trail left behind."
Trump took to Truth Social to respond to the accusation of his hoarding invisible documents. "This is just further proof that the raid on Mar-A-Lago was a witch hunt. Sad!" Trump said in the post. "The FBI doesn't even have invisibility cloaks, much less invisible paper. That was the second question I asked when I got to the White House. First, aliens, and then invisibility cloaks. I did have lots of empty file folders, but only because that's how geniuses hide things, they use decoys. And the FBI fell for it, those losers!"
At publishing time, DOJ officials were still sifting through evidence and weighing the decision to indict Trump. If the former president is indicted on charges of possessing invisible classified documents, it is believed that the FBI is planning to arrest him using the same type of invisible handcuffs used to detain Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
https://babylonbee.com/news/fbi-says-the-documents-in-trumps-possession-were-so-classified-they-were-printed-with-invisible-ink-on-invisible-paper

Yikes. pic.twitter.com/tm2Cc0mPCm

— Ryan Saavedra (@RealSaavedra) September 6, 2022

"Per the report, GOP strategists are taking a major gamble that Trump can juice party turnout without turning off the independent voters who will be key to the party's hopes this fall."
Business insider.

Trump has a +10 with Indies while generic GOP has +4

The GOP should Get Trump to every rally they can get him to..

GOP has to unite both sections of the GOP and pull the Indies in some areas to truly get a shot at a majority in both houses