Canada2017 said:
whiterock said:
Almost every D incumbent under 50% is going to lose. There are some notable exceptions in the battleground states, where Dems have made the investment in a fraud machine worth at least 2-points to the Dem candidate.
We could see a 50+ seat swing in the house, and a 5-7 seat swing in the Senate.
Hope you are right .
But if one believes the Dems developed the methodology to successfully steal the 2020 election utilizing voter harvesting and mail in balloting ……
why in the world would they stop such tactics 2 years later ?
Especially since Republican control would inevitably alter all the committee chairmanships resulting in the investigations of Dem malfeasance .
They know a third-world type election theft would not stand. They can only steal CLOSE elections. Fraud of a few thousand votes is an on-demand thing. Fraud of up to 2% is moderately easy to hide. But as you approach 3% fraudulent votes, the math starts getting implausible. Just too hard to hide it. Starts getting obvious. So the fraud is not systemic anywhere but the deep blue precincts in the battleground states. It's expensive. It's hard to do. It's hard to hide. So you only do it where it REALLY counts.
So the Dems can't steal the Rubio race. He's got too big of a lead. And they can't set up fraud machines in 435 House districts. But they could steal any of Az/Nv/Ga/Pa Senate races. It's a handful of battleground states, which can be won in just 2-3 precincts per state with really good fraud operations capable of delivering 10-50k votes per precinct.
I'm a little worried about AZ Gov race. Dem candidate is doing a "Biden Basement" campaign. We have a weak Dem candidate facing a firebrand GOP that is a ferocious campaigner. So the calculation for the hide-a-Hobbs strategy is that they need a defensive effort to keep the race "within the margin of fraud"....to avoid a really bad moment like what happened to Fetterman in the debate. ( It's not that Hobbs is that bad, but rather that Lake is that good.)
To the extent that your fears of "we're already a one-party state" are valid, I think the AZ Gov race is the one to watch. If Lake loses that one by 10k votes after being up outside the margin of error in polling....well, then we do indeed have a problem.
