Osodecentx said:whiterock said:Republicans/conservatives have always had a cultural quirk when it comes to candidates. We tended to want an "above reproach" candidate who can easily brush off the inevitable Democrat broadsides re deplorability. "rise above it, be statesmanlike, etc...." That fit the old GOP complexion of country club business types....leaders who had to make things work, who frowned on anti-establishmentarian populism that got in their way of building prosperity for their communities. But that sentiment is receding. Most GOP voters understand that the game is rigged, double standards. Republicans get prosecuted for stuff Dems get excused on. Media imbalance is preposterous. And, most importantly, the GOP has changed. It's not "our daddy's GOP." It's a multi-racial working class party now. WE are the anti-establishmentarians against corporate boardrooms who pander to woke cultural institutions.RMF5630 said:Disagree on several fronts. DeSantis will take Reagan route, no way he puts himself on Trump's ticket and especially as his #2 expected to toe Trump loyalty even to his own demise. No way.whiterock said:State legislatures and state parties have a say in how delegates are elected/allocated, too. Some states with very small weak party infrastructure tend to follow guidance from RNC. Others are more robust, particularly Texas. In many respects, the Republican Party of Texas IS the national Republican party. The RPT state convention is actually larger than the GOP National Convention....the largest political convention in the world. And of course, each of those state parties have an executive committee (I am a former member) elected at state conventions. That is to say, the RNC does not order the state parties around. It does, however, set the rules for the National Convention (to which you allude). But when a candidate has over 50% support of primary voters.....convention rules won't matter much. They did in 2016 because Trump was riiiight on the edge of clearing the bar. That made rules about unbinding a potential risk, should he not secure the nomination on the first two ballots - a big number of delegates pledged to him had personally supported other candidates earlier in the process.....so would they hold to him if unbound? Prolly not. So he hired Paul Manafort to fix that problem And boy did he. A third of the delegates at the RPT convention that year were brand new "who the hell are you" souls who showed up, took their job seriously, and significantly strengthened the party. it was a VERY impressive effort. It made the party stronger.RMF5630 said:Quote:Quote:You don't need 51% to win the Nomination. When push comes to shove, Trump will not be the nominee. If he is, the GOP is going to be in for a rough time. You are spending too much time around MAGA-types. They are good at convincing themselves and trying to intimidate those that disagree that they are right and in the majority. Until Trump pulls his crap, which he will.Quote:Quote:
his base is at least 55% of the "GOP". Neither side wins without support of the other.. you way underestimate MAGA
People forget how bad he was after election day. How brutal his surrogates were - Rudi? Powell? I do not believe they did anything illegal, but it was a clown show. Totally destroyed his credibility with alot of the voters. He will continue to intimidate, but I believe GOP will do everything they can to NOT have Trump as the nominee. Trump's behavior brought on the January 6th Commission crap. Nobody wants that in the White House again.
By the way, my Chesapeake Bay Retriever would win against Biden. Not a tough bar to cross. DeSantis, Haley, even Pompeo would beat Biden and his cast of characters. This is THE WORST Presidential performance in history!
In a crowded field, 25% is enough.
In a few early primaries, delegates are selected proportional to one's share of the vote. But that quickly converts to "winner take all." That is purposeful. Up front, you have three small states, each in sone way representative of different but important slices of the electorate, which are proportionately allocated. The reason? To give a grassroots candidate time to catch fire. But then they switch over to wholly or mostly winner-take-all. Why? To force closure. An upstart has to quickly turn a good showing in the first 3 primaries into a national organization that raises money prodigiously. It's an almost impossible task.
AT this point, any candidate at +50% is invulnerable in anything larger than a 2 candidate field. Trump at 53% (lowest poll I've seen) and Desantis at 27% (same poll that had Trump at 53) is so gruesome an opponent that the only challengers who'd run are those posturing for a VP or candidate slot.
Learn the rules and the process and you'll get why Trump is furthest thing from vulnerable. (At this point). He'll need to be below 40 to be vulnerable and below 30 to be beatable.
There's just no mathematical path to defeat him. Today.
In the Primary. The only way if he is over 50% is if the RNC Rules Committee gets involved. In 2016 they didnt unbind. If they do the Paul Ryans may have the last say.
I don't think Trump makes it to the Convention, he will be prosecuted for something first and disqualify him.
Here's the problem for any candidate wanting to knock Trump off: he's over 50% GOP support in every poll taken this year. That's a guaranteed nomination, no matter what the rules are. The investigations are not going to move the needle. They're going to harden his support. The reasoning goes like this: if we let the media and Democrats use the J6 Cmee to take him out, they will do it every cycle on something on someone. Need to stand up to the bullying now. Defeat it. Then return the favor just for the purposes of deterrence.
And as we find ourselves in the timeframe of primary 12-18 month from now and it's clear that Trump has the nomination sewed up, you are going to see a number of people who you were convinced would NEVER take the VP role turn around and see it. Because it is the surest path to nomination in 2028. Not even close.
Second, I am not sure Trump survives the legal actions that are still going on and that will come after the mid-terms as a viable candidate. He still has DOJ and the Jan 6th crap plus the document scheme (Dem scheme) to deal with and survive. What they are using the Espionage Act of 1917 is almost indefensible against if they go that route. They are not playing for jail time, just not able to hold office.
After all that you think he is still the nominee, might as well give the Dems the White House if they run someone competent. One thing the GOP has in their favor, the Dems haven't run someone competent since Bill Clinton.
Trump was proof that a GOP candidate could win on a muddy track, give it back as good as he got.
So, no. Completely disagree with the premise of your article that the DOJ and J6 stuff will be fatal. They won't be able to get the trials underway, and certainly not all the appeals done, before the election. It'll be an issue, balanced by the "issues" the GOP congress digs up in its investigations. it will be the muddiest track for a presidential in our lifetimes. We cannot avoid that. We just gotta win it. And it's going to take one tough SOB to do it.
I will not bend to Democrat corruption of legal institutions.
You should not either.
Trump is the only candidate who can lose the WH
Well, reasonable people can disagree about that. Good news is, we have a nominating process to work through a solution on the question, typically a ticket which has two candidates who can corral the greatest support within the party. I will make you this pledge: I will do everything I can to get the GOP nominated ticket elected to the WH in 2024, no matter who is on it. The survival of the Republic depends upon it. Will you join me in making that pledge?
