RCP is loaded up with prognosis and commentary on polling today.
This SHOULD be a massive red wave. 40+ seats in the house, 5-7 seats in the Senate. 5 or more Democrat governors fall, etc..... There's just worst-case scenarios all over the place for Democrats......a typhoon of bad news and bad policy outcome with no safe ports in view. The House will turn out something close to that. But the distribution of the Senate seats are "best case" for Democrats - very few to defend, and with one exception all on friendly turf....with big blue urban boxes that can scour up thousands of votes on demand. So the narrative of expectations for team Red is easily muted.
The state level races may be a better gauge for the size of the wave. Look where Biden campaigned the last couple of days - CA, NM, IL, etc....all deep blue places. Never a good sign to be playing defense behind your own blue/red wall.....always want to be charging about out on the other guy's turf, making the other side play defense. NM may be a good avatar- attractive and capable hispanic female governor from a legacy family in Democrat politics in a reliably blue state. Yet, polling numbers indicate she may be in trouble. If she falls, it will be a dreadful night for state level Democrats all over the country.
Turnout in early voting is below 2018. That hurts Dems, who tend to vote earlier at a higher rate than GOP. In no small part, that's a function of reduced turnout among Dem constituencies, particularly youth and minorities. And polling is fairly clear that Dems are losing percentage points of minority voters the last few cycles. A smaller part of a smaller turnout is a double whammy against you. We did see a goodly turnout of first time voters in Tx. Who are they? Don't know for sure, but in times of war and recession and inflation....they tend to not reward the party in charge in Washington. So expect Dem leads in early voting to disappoint Dems.
So the last domino to fall is turnout today. Election day voters are a GOP demographic. Will it surge past early voting totals? Maybe. Is the first timer vote already in, or is there a wave of it waiting on today.
A big turnout today is doomsday scenario for Dems.
Note the context of my comments and nearly all others you read elsewhere - there is no talk of blue momentum. Only red. There is no talk of a blue wave. Only red. The context is "will it be bad, or catastrophic" for team blue. That's a bad sign.
This is Politico's list of races swinging in the balance. Murray and Bennett have been below 50% in a lot of polls. They could easily fall today. And I think that would surprise most of the commentariat. But in context, it shouldn't. Today is a bad day to be wearing a blue jersey.
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/07/final-senate-swing-state-polls-2022-00065501 
