That was from Noon today. Insiders are not optimistic now.Jack Bauer said:
FWIWHearing from GOP consultants on the ground in AZ -- looking at the data so far, big GOP turnout and they're "cautiously optimistic" Masters is going to pull it out based on their analytics.
— Mark Hemingway (@Heminator) November 8, 2022
OFFICIAL ELECTION THREAD, 11-8-22
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Don't have to be an insider now not to be optimistic.sombear said:That was from Noon today. Insiders are not optimistic now.Jack Bauer said:
FWIWHearing from GOP consultants on the ground in AZ -- looking at the data so far, big GOP turnout and they're "cautiously optimistic" Masters is going to pull it out based on their analytics.
— Mark Hemingway (@Heminator) November 8, 2022
Republicans couldn’t pull off a wave in this environment, with this president and this economy and this Democratic Party. Nothing they’re doing is working.
— Abe Greenwald (@AbeGreenwald) November 9, 2022
If the red wave is more of a splash, the silver lining is that a wave would likely just enable the GOP’s worst tendencies and put it on auto-pilot, guaranteeing ineffective leadership (McCarthy) remains safe 1/
— Pedro L. Gonzalez (@emeriticus) November 9, 2022
Mitch McConnell is LOVING this shit
— the last pirate (@corsair21c) November 9, 2022
We are going to get stuck with fucking Ron and it’s going to be a return to Bush/Romney era but with some kind of “I was good on coof” lizardman skinsuit
Fucking unbelievable
Whatever else happens tonight, we can all take comfort in the fact that Stacy Abrams and Beto O’Rourke were humiliated
— Matt Walsh (@MattWalshBlog) November 9, 2022
*** Pennsylvania
Honest question, has Beto had a job since 2018?
Welcome to DC
The Republican Party outside of Florida has no message. No discipline. No leadership. No courage to confront the important issues head on. That’s why they’re losing to literally brain damaged candidates. We need a total overhaul.
— Matt Walsh (@MattWalshBlog) November 9, 2022
Republican performance aside, if Arizona is no longer competitive, demographic destiny continues to tighten its grip, a Republican president might not be viable again. This may be the most important implication and ramification.
— Giovanni Dannato (@GiovanniDannato) November 9, 2022
Jack Bauer said:
Honest question, has Beto had a job since 2018?
Yes. The oldest one.
So expecting a red tsunami and the Republicans are currently -1 in the Senate
Have to pick up 2 of 3 from - AZ, GA, NV
Have to pick up 2 of 3 from - AZ, GA, NV
Biden Obama socialists have brought in 5m new illegals in 20 months
Many places with no voter ID
Vote harvesting
Digital voting
Anyone surprised the worst president since Obama and Carter while most people are going bankrupt didn't overwhelming vote to throw these idiots out
I'm surprised, as I've said for months, the Rs won the house.
Many places with no voter ID
Vote harvesting
Digital voting
Anyone surprised the worst president since Obama and Carter while most people are going bankrupt didn't overwhelming vote to throw these idiots out
I'm surprised, as I've said for months, the Rs won the house.
I don't think it is the messaging of the R candidates. The majority of this country is lost degenerates. They'll vote for corpses and vegetables as long as they hate America.
Gonna get to bed, can't wait to wake up to another "4 AM data dump" in AZ, NV, GA
The fat lady is about to take the stage. A GA runoff is going to be irrelevant.Jack Bauer said:
So expecting a red tsunami and the Republicans are currently -1 in the Senate
Have to pick up 2 of 3 from - AZ, GA, NV
— Libertarian Party of Weber County (@webercountylp) November 8, 2022
Fre3dombear said:
Biden Obama socialists have brought in 5m new illegals in 20 months
Many places with no voter ID
Vote harvesting
Digital voting
Anyone surprised the worst president since Obama and Carter while most people are going bankrupt didn't overwhelming vote to throw these idiots out
I'm surprised, as I've said for months, the Rs won the house.
No, the GOP hitched their wagon to Trump! That is the problem. He is a fluke 2016 winner against a horrible candidate (Clinton) that behaved like a spoiled child when he lost to Biden. Trump is poison in a General election. They need to.move away from Trump the person and back to Reagan policies. If Trump backs you or runs himself, Dem and moderate Independent will vote to keep him out. Time to get good candidates not crackpots like Green and these MAGAs! Maybe this will send a message!
doubtfulRMF5630 said:Fre3dombear said:
Biden Obama socialists have brought in 5m new illegals in 20 months
Many places with no voter ID
Vote harvesting
Digital voting
Anyone surprised the worst president since Obama and Carter while most people are going bankrupt didn't overwhelming vote to throw these idiots out
I'm surprised, as I've said for months, the Rs won the house.
No, the GOP hitched their wagon to Trump! That is the problem. He is a fluke 2016 winner against a horrible candidate (Clinton) that behaved like a spoiled child when he lost to Biden. Trump is poison in a General election. They need to.move away from Trump the person and back to Reagan policies. If Trump backs you or runs himself, Dem and moderate Independent will vote to keep him out. Time to get good candidates not crackpots like Green and these MAGAs! Maybe this will send a message!
LIB,MR BEARS said:doubtfulRMF5630 said:Fre3dombear said:
Biden Obama socialists have brought in 5m new illegals in 20 months
Many places with no voter ID
Vote harvesting
Digital voting
Anyone surprised the worst president since Obama and Carter while most people are going bankrupt didn't overwhelming vote to throw these idiots out
I'm surprised, as I've said for months, the Rs won the house.
No, the GOP hitched their wagon to Trump! That is the problem. He is a fluke 2016 winner against a horrible candidate (Clinton) that behaved like a spoiled child when he lost to Biden. Trump is poison in a General election. They need to.move away from Trump the person and back to Reagan policies. If Trump backs you or runs himself, Dem and moderate Independent will vote to keep him out. Time to get good candidates not crackpots like Green and these MAGAs! Maybe this will send a message!
Time to stop with the cheating BS and look at what GOP is running on and who they are running. Fetterman should not have won, but GOP ran Dr Oz! Trump now threatening DeSantis to not run in 24 or he will put out unflattering information? That nutbsg Greene telling people don't dare challenge Trump? Come on. This is your GOP? Reagans GOP?
The answer is staring the Republicans in the face with Desantis. I hope they are smart enough to ditch the orange blimp and go with him. He would get my vote.
TenBears said:
The answer is staring the Republicans in the face with Desantis. I hope they are smart enough to ditch the orange blimp and go with him. He would get my vote.
Exactly, give me Ron all day over Trump.
Ding ding dingRMF5630 said:Fre3dombear said:
Biden Obama socialists have brought in 5m new illegals in 20 months
Many places with no voter ID
Vote harvesting
Digital voting
Anyone surprised the worst president since Obama and Carter while most people are going bankrupt didn't overwhelming vote to throw these idiots out
I'm surprised, as I've said for months, the Rs won the house.
No, the GOP hitched their wagon to Trump! That is the problem. He is a fluke 2016 winner against a horrible candidate (Clinton) that behaved like a spoiled child when he lost to Biden. Trump is poison in a General election. They need to.move away from Trump the person and back to Reagan policies. If Trump backs you or runs himself, Dem and moderate Independent will vote to keep him out. Time to get good candidates not crackpots like Green and these MAGAs! Maybe this will send a message!
PA just elected an incompetent vegetable.
They'll get what they voted for.
They'll get what they voted for.
Doc Holliday said:
PA just elected an incompetent vegetable.
They'll get what they voted for.
The people that control his vote will get what they hoped for.
The Republican is ahead in Nevada for the moment. Senate control could come down to a runoff between Walker and Warnock.
If Trump supporters don't jump ship soon the buffoon is going to end up running indy and handing Biden the presidency. Owning the libs was fun for awhile but losing is not.
Ron DeSantis is the future
ron.reagan said:
If Trump supporters don't jump ship soon the buffoon is going to end up running indy and handing Biden the presidency. Owning the libs was fun for awhile but losing is not.
Trump needs to get the boot. His rabid followers need to face reality.
She is correct. LatinX ignores that reality. The Tejanos in the TxGOP fairly uniformly supported Dewhurst rather than Ted Cruz in the 2012 Senate primary. If you scratched around on that....it was because he was Cuban, not Tejano.Jack Bauer said:
"Latinx are too dumb to know they should be voting for us"The Latino vote is not the same everywhere! There are huge generational differences and in Florida population of older voters (more likely Rs) much larger than younger. Socialism does not play there. And there is a massive disinformation problem in Spanish language media.
— Jen Psaki (@jrpsaki) November 9, 2022
What most whites see as a "Hispanic community" is in fact a loose collection of Americans of a variety of discrete hertiages - South American, Caribbean, Central American, Mexican, Tejano, home-grown - that doesn't always think/vote the same way.
ron.reagan said:
If Trump supporters don't jump ship soon the buffoon is going to end up running indy and handing Biden the presidency. Owning the libs was fun for awhile but losing is not.
Yup. Perhaps that's the silver lining to come out of this, though I fear his sycophants will continue to support him unconditionally, and in turn, lose us the next election.
In the same way, the Democratic Party needed a wake-up call it did not get last night. The results increase the chance that Joe Biden will lead the ticket against Ron Desantis. If that happens you will get your red wave two years late.
That will be the Establishment take, and there's a lot to commend it. DeSantis was already the heir apparent BEFORE the vote totals came rolling in. But.......Canada2017 said:Forest Bueller said:4th and Inches said:
OZ is about 40k back and gaining..
Might still be there
The Philadelphia machine will ward of any Oz momentum.
Walker and Warnock in a runoff. Not sure what is going on in AZ. I thought we were told Lake and others have all the momentum.
Outside of Florida and DeSantis…..the red wave was a bust .
The message is clear …..it's DeSantis for president in 2024.
There is a parallel here with 2012. The Romney campaign leaned heavily on the Tea Party NOT to try to recreate the magic of 2010 with energetic grassroots campaining, rallies, block walking, etc.... It's a different dynamic, they said. It's going to be counterproductive, they said. It'll turn off independents and fire up the Dem base, they said. Voters like the incumbent personally, they said. We can't treat him like y'all did Dems in 2010. Trust us, they said. We know what we're doing, they said. We got this, they said. And then....whomp, whomp, whomp.....
Who didn't show up yesterday? Independents and MAGA base.
Remember all the times I said that negative campaigning turns off independents?
Remember when I said the goal of a troubled incumbent is to get independents NOT to vote?
The goal is to make the election a referendum not on you, but your challenger....to make him/her look worse.
The Dems DID turn out their base.
Better than we did.
What could we have done a better job firing up OUR base?
(see below)
Q: Where did the GOP do best?
A: Where the hard-charging, MAGA-created Governor stood on the victory stage and said "Florida is where Woke comes to die." No punches pulled in FL. No worries about inflaming sensibilities there. It was a knock teeth in campaign. (which had a good record to run on ).
Trump made a huge mistake.
He respected the wishes of the HRCC and SRCC. He stayed on the sidelines.
Did not campaign with a single candidate.
Did not do anything to fire up the MAGA base by declaring for reelection.
Is it a surprise we saw a 2018 turnout more (when he was not on the ticket) rather than 2016/2020 when he was?
And how did Dems turn out their base? (by calling the GOP win "the end of democracy").
Meanwhile, ours stayed home....so as not to inflame theirs....or scare independents who stayed home anyway.
Independents did not come roaring out to save the economy or the schools.
Democrats came out to save their agenda.
A campaigning Trump would not have negatively impacted either of those two demographics.
He would have brought out the MAGA base.
Democrats called out their unpopular leaders to campaign with their embattled Senators and Governors, and they got their base out & got their problem candidates across the finish line. (you can forgive me if I harrumph about comments on "candidate quality." Dems got strong showings from deeply flawed (Barnes, Fetterman, Warnock) and nearly opaque (Hassan, Hobbs) candidates in tight races (each of which the GOP should have won).
The Tx data I posted leading up to the election was, in hindsight, instructive. The record turnout we needed to win did not happen.
The silver lining: DeSantis showed me something I've consistently pointed out he lacked - a viable coalition of his own. No, it's not exactly MAGA. It's a different coalition. Can it be a model to take nationwide? Maybe. We'll see.
Take home lesson yesterday is one we have to come to grips with: In a nearly evenly divided election, quit making election plans to woo independent voters with milquetoast campaigns. All that does is make your own base stay home. Until we have a nationwide result resembling Reagan in 1984, every election is a base election.
And then move hereDoc Holliday said:
PA just elected an incompetent vegetable.
They'll get what they voted for.
TenBears said:
The answer is staring the Republicans in the face with Desantis. I hope they are smart enough to ditch the orange blimp and go with him.
Going to require an incredibly stubborn / hopelessly limited type of individual to ignore the political realities revealed last night .
DeSantis is easily the best chance the Republicans have in 2024. Couldn't possibly be any clearer .
Meanwhile Trump is political poison . His self absorbed ego games are completely toxic to independents, women, and younger voters .
Republicans got to give Trump the boot asap . The longer they wait, the more damage he will do .
EX: Exit polling is clear that Threat To Democracy and Abortion were huge issues with thoe who voted.
Are those key issues with voters at large? Was all the polling about inflation and economy wrong?
no.
Remember what I said many times: a pollster has to poll the people who actually vote.
A majority of voters think inflation and the economy ARE the big issues.
but those voters didn't show up and vote.
A smaller number of voters think abortion and threats to democracy are the big issues.
but those voters are who showed up and voted.
Every election is a base election.
If you do not turn out your own base, the independents don't matter a damned bit.
Are those key issues with voters at large? Was all the polling about inflation and economy wrong?
no.
Remember what I said many times: a pollster has to poll the people who actually vote.
A majority of voters think inflation and the economy ARE the big issues.
but those voters didn't show up and vote.
A smaller number of voters think abortion and threats to democracy are the big issues.
but those voters are who showed up and voted.
Every election is a base election.
If you do not turn out your own base, the independents don't matter a damned bit.