OFFICIAL ELECTION THREAD, 11-8-22

53,443 Views | 1063 Replies | Last: 1 yr ago by whiterock
Whiskey Pete
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Booray said:

Rawhide said:

Harrison Bergeron said:

RMF5630 said:

Canada2017 said:

Mothra said:

ATL Bear said:

whiterock said:

Adriacus Peratuun said:

Every stupid self-serving Trump tweet simply pushes a few more people over to Desantis.

Sununu and Haley can [if they are smart team players] kill a Trump candidacy early. Let him lose 7-8 of the first 10 primaries and he is done.
Best way they can do that is to stay out of the race. The more candidates that enter, the harder it will be to defeat Trump. All it will do is divide up the non-Trump vote as the primaries turn winner-take-all. His core base will stand strong.

He's been in the mid-50's all year. I'd be guesstimating on what is his hard floor, but if it's 40% or better he's invulnerable in anything larger than a three horse race. and I don't think it would be much less than 40%.

The folks here who want to move on from Trump are not being unrealistic in their desire, only about how hard it could be to beat him. And they're being even less realistic about how hard it will be to find another candidate capable of inspiring firing up conservative voters to the point of spontaneous boat parades.

Desantis has some stuff going for him, for sure. But the crowd here is letting their hopes get way out over the tips of their analysis
It shouldn't be hard to defeat him. The fact it could be is an indictment on the people who continue to prop him up. Please stop.
It amazes me that after Tuesday, anyone still thinks Trump should be the next Republican nominee. If 2020 didn't prove he's going to get his ass kicked in a general election, his myriad of legal troubles and unethical behavior since then, as well as the resounding defeat of Trumpism this past Tuesday, should have waken them to this fact.

Alas, we are very slow learners.


Some are simply incapable of adjusting long held thought processes .

The fact remains…….Trump is poisonous to the Republican Party .

Which is why Dems actively keep his name in the public spotlight .
You are correct. I am hearing from more and more high up company officials they are glad that someone is showing up that can knock Trump out of the limelight. Sick of his antics. I believe those that think Trump is the power in the GOP are going to be very surprised when they see how quick people jump on an alternative that is an adult and is able to get things done. Got to work in the system, not blow it up. Or, we become a banana republic.
I agree. I think Trump's continued obsession with the 2020 election and refusal to actually support any candidates financially weakened him. Tuesday's results really harmed his position. His petulant, unprovoked attacks on DeSantis - the biggest winner Tuesday - really make him look like a moron.

Not that anyone doubted it was always just about Trump, but now he's leaving no doubt it always was just about Trump. I think he's done.
Yep Trump is done. He's losing supporters with his attacks on DeSantis. No way Trump can win in 2024 because he'll make it all about how he was screwed in 2020. People are growing tired of his antics.

Now we can move onto DeSantis so the media can paint him as 10x worse than Trump, an ultra mega uber deplorable right wing extremist who will kill democracy, gays, transgenders, senior citizens, women and anyone that's not white. For any women he doesn't kill, he'll lock them up and keep them barefoot and pregnant while he ushers in a new era of fascism in America. He'll be the next Hitler, a despicable human being that eats meat, denies climate change, and deports undocumented people just trying to make a better a life for themselves.

DeSantis will be a hater of women's rights, the poor, the homeless and drug addicts. The Ron will jail doctors who perform abortions and the women who seek them. He'll throw the homeless out of their street tents and refuse to give clean needles to addicts. He'll support the unvaxed murderers that refuse to mask up and he'll the audacity to let businesses stay open and let Americans continue work.

Yes Ron DeSantis will be Trump 2.0, 3.0, 4.0 and Hitler's ghost all rolled into one.
Pretty rich given that much of the GOP accuses anyone Democratic of grooming children as candidates for perversion. Just for kicks I listentd to about thirty minutes of Waco's talk radio am station yesterday. Apparently all Democrats hate America. I never knew...
the left will paint DeSantis as the most evil person to ever walk the earth.
Canada2017
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Rawhide said:

Booray said:

Rawhide said:

Harrison Bergeron said:

RMF5630 said:

Canada2017 said:

Mothra said:

ATL Bear said:

whiterock said:

Adriacus Peratuun said:

Every stupid self-serving Trump tweet simply pushes a few more people over to Desantis.

Sununu and Haley can [if they are smart team players] kill a Trump candidacy early. Let him lose 7-8 of the first 10 primaries and he is done.
Best way they can do that is to stay out of the race. The more candidates that enter, the harder it will be to defeat Trump. All it will do is divide up the non-Trump vote as the primaries turn winner-take-all. His core base will stand strong.

He's been in the mid-50's all year. I'd be guesstimating on what is his hard floor, but if it's 40% or better he's invulnerable in anything larger than a three horse race. and I don't think it would be much less than 40%.

The folks here who want to move on from Trump are not being unrealistic in their desire, only about how hard it could be to beat him. And they're being even less realistic about how hard it will be to find another candidate capable of inspiring firing up conservative voters to the point of spontaneous boat parades.

Desantis has some stuff going for him, for sure. But the crowd here is letting their hopes get way out over the tips of their analysis
It shouldn't be hard to defeat him. The fact it could be is an indictment on the people who continue to prop him up. Please stop.
It amazes me that after Tuesday, anyone still thinks Trump should be the next Republican nominee. If 2020 didn't prove he's going to get his ass kicked in a general election, his myriad of legal troubles and unethical behavior since then, as well as the resounding defeat of Trumpism this past Tuesday, should have waken them to this fact.

Alas, we are very slow learners.


Some are simply incapable of adjusting long held thought processes .

The fact remains…….Trump is poisonous to the Republican Party .

Which is why Dems actively keep his name in the public spotlight .
You are correct. I am hearing from more and more high up company officials they are glad that someone is showing up that can knock Trump out of the limelight. Sick of his antics. I believe those that think Trump is the power in the GOP are going to be very surprised when they see how quick people jump on an alternative that is an adult and is able to get things done. Got to work in the system, not blow it up. Or, we become a banana republic.
I agree. I think Trump's continued obsession with the 2020 election and refusal to actually support any candidates financially weakened him. Tuesday's results really harmed his position. His petulant, unprovoked attacks on DeSantis - the biggest winner Tuesday - really make him look like a moron.

Not that anyone doubted it was always just about Trump, but now he's leaving no doubt it always was just about Trump. I think he's done.
Yep Trump is done. He's losing supporters with his attacks on DeSantis. No way Trump can win in 2024 because he'll make it all about how he was screwed in 2020. People are growing tired of his antics.

Now we can move onto DeSantis so the media can paint him as 10x worse than Trump, an ultra mega uber deplorable right wing extremist who will kill democracy, gays, transgenders, senior citizens, women and anyone that's not white. For any women he doesn't kill, he'll lock them up and keep them barefoot and pregnant while he ushers in a new era of fascism in America. He'll be the next Hitler, a despicable human being that eats meat, denies climate change, and deports undocumented people just trying to make a better a life for themselves.

DeSantis will be a hater of women's rights, the poor, the homeless and drug addicts. The Ron will jail doctors who perform abortions and the women who seek them. He'll throw the homeless out of their street tents and refuse to give clean needles to addicts. He'll support the unvaxed murderers that refuse to mask up and he'll the audacity to let businesses stay open and let Americans continue work.

Yes Ron DeSantis will be Trump 2.0, 3.0, 4.0 and Hitler's ghost all rolled into one.
Pretty rich given that much of the GOP accuses anyone Democratic of grooming children as candidates for perversion. Just for kicks I listentd to about thirty minutes of Waco's talk radio am station yesterday. Apparently all Democrats hate America. I never knew...
the left will paint DeSantis as the most evil person to ever walk the earth.


Worse than Mitt Romney ?
Adriacus Peratuun
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Context for Arizona:

Doc Holliday
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We need to dump Trump, but if we go back to Romney and Paul Ryan types, I'm not supporting the party at all.
Oldbear83
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Canada2017 said:

Rawhide said:

Booray said:

Rawhide said:

Harrison Bergeron said:

RMF5630 said:

Canada2017 said:

Mothra said:

ATL Bear said:

whiterock said:

Adriacus Peratuun said:

Every stupid self-serving Trump tweet simply pushes a few more people over to Desantis.

Sununu and Haley can [if they are smart team players] kill a Trump candidacy early. Let him lose 7-8 of the first 10 primaries and he is done.
Best way they can do that is to stay out of the race. The more candidates that enter, the harder it will be to defeat Trump. All it will do is divide up the non-Trump vote as the primaries turn winner-take-all. His core base will stand strong.

He's been in the mid-50's all year. I'd be guesstimating on what is his hard floor, but if it's 40% or better he's invulnerable in anything larger than a three horse race. and I don't think it would be much less than 40%.

The folks here who want to move on from Trump are not being unrealistic in their desire, only about how hard it could be to beat him. And they're being even less realistic about how hard it will be to find another candidate capable of inspiring firing up conservative voters to the point of spontaneous boat parades.

Desantis has some stuff going for him, for sure. But the crowd here is letting their hopes get way out over the tips of their analysis
It shouldn't be hard to defeat him. The fact it could be is an indictment on the people who continue to prop him up. Please stop.
It amazes me that after Tuesday, anyone still thinks Trump should be the next Republican nominee. If 2020 didn't prove he's going to get his ass kicked in a general election, his myriad of legal troubles and unethical behavior since then, as well as the resounding defeat of Trumpism this past Tuesday, should have waken them to this fact.

Alas, we are very slow learners.


Some are simply incapable of adjusting long held thought processes .

The fact remains…….Trump is poisonous to the Republican Party .

Which is why Dems actively keep his name in the public spotlight .
You are correct. I am hearing from more and more high up company officials they are glad that someone is showing up that can knock Trump out of the limelight. Sick of his antics. I believe those that think Trump is the power in the GOP are going to be very surprised when they see how quick people jump on an alternative that is an adult and is able to get things done. Got to work in the system, not blow it up. Or, we become a banana republic.
I agree. I think Trump's continued obsession with the 2020 election and refusal to actually support any candidates financially weakened him. Tuesday's results really harmed his position. His petulant, unprovoked attacks on DeSantis - the biggest winner Tuesday - really make him look like a moron.

Not that anyone doubted it was always just about Trump, but now he's leaving no doubt it always was just about Trump. I think he's done.
Yep Trump is done. He's losing supporters with his attacks on DeSantis. No way Trump can win in 2024 because he'll make it all about how he was screwed in 2020. People are growing tired of his antics.

Now we can move onto DeSantis so the media can paint him as 10x worse than Trump, an ultra mega uber deplorable right wing extremist who will kill democracy, gays, transgenders, senior citizens, women and anyone that's not white. For any women he doesn't kill, he'll lock them up and keep them barefoot and pregnant while he ushers in a new era of fascism in America. He'll be the next Hitler, a despicable human being that eats meat, denies climate change, and deports undocumented people just trying to make a better a life for themselves.

DeSantis will be a hater of women's rights, the poor, the homeless and drug addicts. The Ron will jail doctors who perform abortions and the women who seek them. He'll throw the homeless out of their street tents and refuse to give clean needles to addicts. He'll support the unvaxed murderers that refuse to mask up and he'll the audacity to let businesses stay open and let Americans continue work.

Yes Ron DeSantis will be Trump 2.0, 3.0, 4.0 and Hitler's ghost all rolled into one.
Pretty rich given that much of the GOP accuses anyone Democratic of grooming children as candidates for perversion. Just for kicks I listentd to about thirty minutes of Waco's talk radio am station yesterday. Apparently all Democrats hate America. I never knew...
the left will paint DeSantis as the most evil person to ever walk the earth.


Worse than Mitt Romney ?
Depends on how they spin "Binders of Women 2.0"
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
Oldbear83
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Doc Holliday said:

We need to dump Trump, but if we go back to Romney and Paul Ryan types, I'm not supporting the party at all.
Agreed.

Spine is a must-have.
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
Married A Horn
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Adriacus Peratuun said:

Context for Arizona:




Almost all early ballots already counted (dem voter majority). 300k+ to count (rep voter majority). Lake looking good. Senate - too much to overcome.
FLBear5630
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Oldbear83 said:

Doc Holliday said:

We need to dump Trump, but if we go back to Romney and Paul Ryan types, I'm not supporting the party at all.
Agreed.

Spine is a must-have.
Spine is one thing. Brown Shirt intimidation is another.

You can't govern to spite 50% of the populati0n. You can't intimidate people from running for office with threats. This is not the 2016 Trump and the MAGA hat. For whatever reason, no matter who is right or wrong, MAGA has morphed into a vindictive, threatening group that has no tolerance for anyone that does not think like them. That is NOT a governing party. That is a danger.
Redbrickbear
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Doc Holliday said:

We need to dump Trump, but if we go back to Romney and Paul Ryan types, I'm not supporting the party at all.
Amen


Oldbear83
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"Spine is one thing. Brown Shirt intimidation is another."

We're talking about standing for the Constitution, not following the footsteps of ANTIFA.

Did you drink your lunch?
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
Wrecks Quan Dough
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RMF5630 said:

Oldbear83 said:

Doc Holliday said:

We need to dump Trump, but if we go back to Romney and Paul Ryan types, I'm not supporting the party at all.
Agreed.

Spine is a must-have.
Spine is one thing. Brown Shirt intimidation is another.

You can't govern to spite 50% of the populati0n. You can't intimidate people from running for office with threats. This is not the 2016 Trump and the MAGA hat. For whatever reason, no matter who is right or wrong, MAGA has morphed into a vindictive, threatening group that has no tolerance for anyone that does not think like them. That is NOT a governing party. That is a danger.
If we just had limited government and federalism, then it would not be as big of a deal. The impact would be very slight in scope. Sigh!
Adriacus Peratuun
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Nevada context:

Vegas [Clark County] has about 45,000 ballots outstanding
Reno [Washoe County] has about 21,000 ballots outstanding
All other Counties combined have about 7,000 ballots outstanding.

Key Issue: the early mail-in ballots were heavily D. As the receipt date on mail-in ballots moves later, the discrepancy between D and R became less.

D needs about 41,000 of the remaining [estimated] 73,000 votes to overtake the current lead. That is 56.16%.

The most recent ballot drops have been very close to that range. If the %s hold, the D likely wins. If they continue dropping [even slightly] the R wins.

And there are exactly ZERO post-COVID elections to use as a Go By to analyze the trend.
Adriacus Peratuun
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Married A Horn said:

Adriacus Peratuun said:

Context for Arizona:




Almost all early ballots already counted (dem voter majority). 300k+ to count (rep voter majority). Lake looking good. Senate - too much to overcome.
Have a suspicion that the 17,000ish Provisional ballots are going to be important.

2 to 1 on Election Day ballots [not likely but realistically achievable] = 125,000+ differential
FLBear5630
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Oldbear83 said:

"Spine is one thing. Brown Shirt intimidation is another."

We're talking about standing for the Constitution, not following the footsteps of ANTIFA.

Did you drink your lunch?
I never said that the Dems, ANTIFA, Soros or the Squad was right. You are bait & switch. T

his is about Trump and MAGA in regard to the future of the Republican Party. You are pulling a Trump, if I don't agree with MAGA, I am for ANTIFA. That is BS and you know it. There are a tone of good GOP candidates that would be more effective and less corrosive than Trump. Trump has gone straight Brown Coat, look at HIS and HIS SURROGATES quotes.

He is threatening a GOP Governor to keep him out of the Presidential election? That is what you stand for????

FLBear5630
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He Hate Me said:

RMF5630 said:

Oldbear83 said:

Doc Holliday said:

We need to dump Trump, but if we go back to Romney and Paul Ryan types, I'm not supporting the party at all.
Agreed.

Spine is a must-have.
Spine is one thing. Brown Shirt intimidation is another.

You can't govern to spite 50% of the populati0n. You can't intimidate people from running for office with threats. This is not the 2016 Trump and the MAGA hat. For whatever reason, no matter who is right or wrong, MAGA has morphed into a vindictive, threatening group that has no tolerance for anyone that does not think like them. That is NOT a governing party. That is a danger.
If we just had limited government and federalism, then it would not be as big of a deal. The impact would be very slight in scope. Sigh!
I have not problem with that. Limiting Government to core functions, no problem. Enforce the laws on the books, no problem. Just don't force the Red Hat on me because I do not agree with their tactics and believe they are un-American.
Wrecks Quan Dough
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RMF5630 said:

He Hate Me said:

RMF5630 said:

Oldbear83 said:

Doc Holliday said:

We need to dump Trump, but if we go back to Romney and Paul Ryan types, I'm not supporting the party at all.
Agreed.

Spine is a must-have.
Spine is one thing. Brown Shirt intimidation is another.

You can't govern to spite 50% of the populati0n. You can't intimidate people from running for office with threats. This is not the 2016 Trump and the MAGA hat. For whatever reason, no matter who is right or wrong, MAGA has morphed into a vindictive, threatening group that has no tolerance for anyone that does not think like them. That is NOT a governing party. That is a danger.
If we just had limited government and federalism, then it would not be as big of a deal. The impact would be very slight in scope. Sigh!
I have not problem with that. Limiting Government to core functions, no problem. Enforce the laws on the books, no problem. Just don't force the Red Hat on me because I do not agree with their tactics and believe they are un-American.
What is the Red Hat?
Doc Holliday
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RMF5630 said:

Oldbear83 said:

Doc Holliday said:

We need to dump Trump, but if we go back to Romney and Paul Ryan types, I'm not supporting the party at all.
Agreed.

Spine is a must-have.
Spine is one thing. Brown Shirt intimidation is another.

You can't govern to spite 50% of the populati0n. You can't intimidate people from running for office with threats. This is not the 2016 Trump and the MAGA hat. For whatever reason, no matter who is right or wrong, MAGA has morphed into a vindictive, threatening group that has no tolerance for anyone that does not think like them. That is NOT a governing party. That is a danger.
You don't have to support MAGA, but making the case that Neocons/RINO or establishment GOP is a better choice is false.
FLBear5630
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He Hate Me said:

RMF5630 said:

He Hate Me said:

RMF5630 said:

Oldbear83 said:

Doc Holliday said:

We need to dump Trump, but if we go back to Romney and Paul Ryan types, I'm not supporting the party at all.
Agreed.

Spine is a must-have.
Spine is one thing. Brown Shirt intimidation is another.

You can't govern to spite 50% of the populati0n. You can't intimidate people from running for office with threats. This is not the 2016 Trump and the MAGA hat. For whatever reason, no matter who is right or wrong, MAGA has morphed into a vindictive, threatening group that has no tolerance for anyone that does not think like them. That is NOT a governing party. That is a danger.
If we just had limited government and federalism, then it would not be as big of a deal. The impact would be very slight in scope. Sigh!
I have not problem with that. Limiting Government to core functions, no problem. Enforce the laws on the books, no problem. Just don't force the Red Hat on me because I do not agree with their tactics and believe they are un-American.
What is the Red Hat?
MAGA...

I am conservative, but I will not support that sociopath Trump. I voted for him before, but I will not this time. I will walk away or just skip President if he gets the nomination. He is a ridiculous child that needs to go away. If he gets nomination, I will vote House and Senate GOP, give the President to the Dens again. Not doing Trump or any of his MAGA crowd. Lucky for me in Florida, I don't have to worry that much. DeSantis, Rubio, and locals are adults.
Doc Holliday
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Wrecks Quan Dough
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Doc Holliday said:


Her opponent is going back to driving for Uber.
Married A Horn
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He Hate Me said:

Doc Holliday said:


Her opponent is going back to driving for Uber.


I did hear a democrat pundit say Boebert was going to get a job at onlyfans...
FLBear5630
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He Hate Me said:

Doc Holliday said:


Her opponent is going back to driving for Uber.
Maybe she is going back to be a weather anchor on TV...
Redbrickbear
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Married A Horn said:

He Hate Me said:

Doc Holliday said:


Her opponent is going back to driving for Uber.


I did hear a democrat pundit say Boebert was going to get a job at onlyfans...

Its ok to be sexist and misogynistic against women...as long as they are conservative women.
Wrecks Quan Dough
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RMF5630 said:

He Hate Me said:

Doc Holliday said:


Her opponent is going back to driving for Uber.
Maybe she is going back to be a weather anchor on TV...
I would think that, at least 9 months out of the year, being a weatherman or weatherwoman in Arizona is pretty plumb job.
Married A Horn
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Havent read - kinda burned out. Brother sent this to me...said it was good news. Thoughts?

https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/elections/red-wave-after-all-gop-winning-popular-vote-wide-margin-despite
Wrecks Quan Dough
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Married A Horn said:

Havent read - kinda burned out. Brother sent this to me...said it was good news. Thoughts?

https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/elections/red-wave-after-all-gop-winning-popular-vote-wide-margin-despite
Congratulations on all of our first downs, but it is still basically a tie game when we were heavy favorites. Meh!
WacoKelly83
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sombear
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Married A Horn said:

Havent read - kinda burned out. Brother sent this to me...said it was good news. Thoughts?

https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/elections/red-wave-after-all-gop-winning-popular-vote-wide-margin-despite
Good news in that GOP is well ahead in the popular vote and will end up winning it, but it did not translate into enough seats. This is highly unusual, and one of many highly unusual data points in this election. I received about an hour ago a detailed analysis of this election. It's confidential, but I'm going to summarize later today. Bottom-line, in an ordinary year, GOP would have done very well not only statistically but in winning seats.
Oldbear83
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RMF5630 said:

Oldbear83 said:

"Spine is one thing. Brown Shirt intimidation is another."

We're talking about standing for the Constitution, not following the footsteps of ANTIFA.

Did you drink your lunch?
I never said that the Dems, ANTIFA, Soros or the Squad was right. You are bait & switch. T

his is about Trump and MAGA in regard to the future of the Republican Party. You are pulling a Trump, if I don't agree with MAGA, I am for ANTIFA. That is BS and you know it. There are a tone of good GOP candidates that would be more effective and less corrosive than Trump. Trump has gone straight Brown Coat, look at HIS and HIS SURROGATES quotes.

He is threatening a GOP Governor to keep him out of the Presidential election? That is what you stand for????


You need better reading comprehension. Shoots, just a few days ago you even agreed with me that we need to separate the issues that won 2016 for Trump from the blowhard who is putting bullet holes in his shoes right now.

"Spine" means not accepting crap like what we saw in Pennsylvania in 2020 and are seeing now in Arizona. It's reasonable to say Trump should go, but still demand the "irregularities" be corrected and the crooks put in jail. "Spine" means supporting Ukraine where reasonable but not signing blank checks to pour money in with no idea what it is being used for. "Spine" means pushing to protect critical industries like Oil & Gas and against wasteful garbage like Equity and Gender Confusion classes.

"Spine" means winning over the next generation, not just shrugging and letting Beto and AOC become their icons.

Stop confusing me for Trump. Maybe read what I really wrote next time.
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
FLBear5630
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He Hate Me said:

RMF5630 said:

He Hate Me said:

Doc Holliday said:


Her opponent is going back to driving for Uber.
Maybe she is going back to be a weather anchor on TV...
I would think that, at least 9 months out of the year, being a weatherman or weatherwoman in Arizona is pretty plumb job.
Not arguing... Put me in a Tucson station and I will stay...
Jack Bauer
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*** is this headline? Also, Katie Hobbs can barely put 2 sentences together.

USA Today:

Did Kari Lake's appearance help her win votes? Sadly, the answer may be yes

Opinion: Do hair, makeup, clothing and personality really make the candidate? Unfortunately for women politicians like Kari Lake and Katie Hobbs, the answer often is yes.

Jack Bauer
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Another FUBAR, votes will be counted by Thanksgiving. A High School team could do a better job of this but how dare you question the integrity of Maricopa County you election denier!

Oldbear83
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He Hate Me said:

RMF5630 said:

He Hate Me said:

Doc Holliday said:


Her opponent is going back to driving for Uber.
Maybe she is going back to be a weather anchor on TV...
I would think that, at least 9 months out of the year, being a weatherman or weatherwoman in Arizona is pretty plumb job.
I think they prefer to be called 'meteorologists' now, which is strange, because it's been years since even one of them reported on meteor activity ...
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
Jack Bauer
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Oldbear83 said:

He Hate Me said:

RMF5630 said:

He Hate Me said:

Doc Holliday said:


Her opponent is going back to driving for Uber.
Maybe she is going back to be a weather anchor on TV...
I would think that, at least 9 months out of the year, being a weatherman or weatherwoman in Arizona is pretty plumb job.
I think they prefer to be called 'meteorologists' now, which is strange, because it's been years since even one of them reported on meteor activity ...

FYI - how to be a meteorologist in Mexico.

1) Be really really hot
That's it, that's the list.
Jack Bauer
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