New Insider Advantage poll in Georgia is 3rd survery in a row to show Herschel Walker leading. https://t.co/CuRhNKPdSk pic.twitter.com/1wmwOPAJwF

— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) September 9, 2022

Noticed they switched from RV to LV as well..

4th and Inches said:

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New Insider Advantage poll in Georgia is 3rd survery in a row to show Herschel Walker leading. https://t.co/CuRhNKPdSk pic.twitter.com/1wmwOPAJwF

— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) September 9, 2022

Noticed they switched from RV to has 51 or 52 senate seats LV as well..

---

I think when all is said and done, the GOP has a great chance to win 51 or 52 senate seats, and will retake the House with at least 25 seat gain.

And Abbott, DeSantis, and Kemp will all win easily at the governor level.

Ursus Americanus said:

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4th and Inches said:

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New Insider Advantage poll in Georgia is 3rd survery in a row to show Herschel Walker leading. https://t.co/CuRhNKPdSk pic.twitter.com/1wmwOPAJwF

— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) September 9, 2022

Noticed they switched from RV to has 51 or 52 senate seats LV as well..

---

I think when all is said and done, the GOP has a great chance to win 51 or 52 senate seats, and will retake the House with at least 25 seat gain.

And Abbott, DeSantis, and Kemp will all win easily at the governor level.

---

Dont Forget Kari Lake. She looks really strong and someone to keep an eye on as a future VP candidate for Desantis.

muddybrazos said:

---

Ursus Americanus said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

New Insider Advantage poll in Georgia is 3rd survery in a row to show Herschel Walker leading. https://t.co/CuRhNKPdSk pic.twitter.com/1wmwOPAJwF

— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) September 9, 2022

Noticed they switched from RV to has 51 or 52 senate seats LV as well..

---

I think when all is said and done, the GOP has a great chance to win 51 or 52 senate seats, and will retake the House with at least 25 seat gain.

And Abbott, DeSantis, and Kemp will all win easily at the governor level.

---

Dont Forget Kari Lake. She looks really strong and someone to keep an eye on as a future VP candidate for Desantis.

---

I think the GOP establishment has their heart set on Tim Scott as a veep.

Ursus Americanus said:

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muddybrazos said:

---

Ursus Americanus said:

---

4th and Inches said:

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New Insider Advantage poll in Georgia is 3rd survery in a row to show Herschel Walker leading. https://t.co/CuRhNKPdSk pic.twitter.com/1wmwOPAJwF

— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) September 9, 2022

Noticed they switched from RV to has 51 or 52 senate seats LV as well..

---

I think when all is said and done, the GOP has a great chance to win 51 or 52 senate seats, and will retake the House with at least 25 seat gain.

And Abbott, DeSantis, and Kemp will all win easily at the governor level.

---

Dont Forget Kari Lake. She looks really strong and someone to keep an eye on as a future VP candidate for Desantis.

---

I think the GOP establishment has their heart set on Tim Scott as a veep.

---

I hate to break their hearts but that one is a non starter for me and the other ultra magas. Tim is a nice guy but he is just more of the same which is obviously why the establishment would want him.

muddybrazos said:

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Ursus Americanus said:

---

muddybrazos said:

---

Ursus Americanus said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

New Insider Advantage poll in Georgia is 3rd survery in a row to show Herschel Walker leading. https://t.co/CuRhNKPdSk pic.twitter.com/1wmwOPAJwF

— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) September 9, 2022

Noticed they switched from RV to has 51 or 52 senate seats LV as well..

---

I think when all is said and done, the GOP has a great chance to win 51 or 52 senate seats, and will retake the House with at least 25 seat gain.

And Abbott, DeSantis, and Kemp will all win easily at the governor level.

---

Dont Forget Kari Lake. She looks really strong and someone to keep an eye on as a future VP candidate for Desantis.

---

I think the GOP establishment has their heart set on Tim Scott as a veep.

---

I hate to break their hearts but that one is a non starter for me and the other ultra magas. Tim is a nice guy but he is just more of the same which is obviously why the establishment would want him.

---

You always balance a ticket between a populist and establishment, it's the formula of a coalition. Reagan paired with Bush, Trump with Pence.

Ursus Americanus said:

---

muddybrazos said:

---

Ursus Americanus said:

---

muddybrazos said:

---

Ursus Americanus said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

New Insider Advantage poll in Georgia is 3rd survery in a row to show Herschel Walker leading. https://t.co/CuRhNKPdSk pic.twitter.com/1wmwOPAJwF

— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) September 9, 2022

Noticed they switched from RV to has 51 or 52 senate seats LV as well..

---

I think when all is said and done, the GOP has a great chance to win 51 or 52 senate seats, and will retake the House with at least 25 seat gain.

And Abbott, DeSantis, and Kemp will all win easily at the governor level.

---

Dont Forget Kari Lake. She looks really strong and someone to keep an eye on as a future VP candidate for Desantis.

---

I think the GOP establishment has their heart set on Tim Scott as a veep.

---

I hate to break their hearts but that one is a non starter for me and the other ultra magas. Tim is a nice guy but he is just more of the same which is obviously why the establishment would want him.

---

You always balance a ticket between a populist and establishment, it's the formula of a coalition. Reagan paired with Bush, Trump with Pence.

---

What was Bush/CHeney? Establishment legacy dumbass and establishment war hawk? I think that paradigm may be shifting since the repubs are moving away from uniparty boomer cons.

muddybrazos said:

---

Ursus Americanus said:

---

muddybrazos said:

---

Ursus Americanus said:

---

muddybrazos said:

---

Ursus Americanus said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

New Insider Advantage poll in Georgia is 3rd survery in a row to show Herschel Walker leading. https://t.co/CuRhNKPdSk pic.twitter.com/1wmwOPAJwF

— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) September 9, 2022

Noticed they switched from RV to has 51 or 52 senate seats LV as well..

---

I think when all is said and done, the GOP has a great chance to win 51 or 52 senate seats, and will retake the House with at least 25 seat gain.

And Abbott, DeSantis, and Kemp will all win easily at the governor level.

---

Dont Forget Kari Lake. She looks really strong and someone to keep an eye on as a future VP candidate for Desantis.

---

I think the GOP establishment has their heart set on Tim Scott as a veep.

---

I hate to break their hearts but that one is a non starter for me and the other ultra magas. Tim is a nice guy but he is just more of the same which is obviously why the establishment would want him.

---

You always balance a ticket between a populist and establishment, it's the formula of a coalition. Reagan paired with Bush, Trump with Pence.

---

What was Bush/CHeney? Establishment legacy dumbass and establishment war hawk? I think that paradigm may be shifting since the repubs are moving away from uniparty boomer cons.

---

I'm not here to argue with you, I'm telling you the reality of political coalitions, the parties are too broad and fragile too not balance it.

Some times tickets are bad, but the ones most doomed are those with no balance, like Clinton/ Kaine and Romney/Ryan.

MAGAs learned their lesson with Pence. Establishment types might play well with Dems, but when it comes to coup attempts they are no help at all.

ARIZONA POLL:

US Senate:@CaptMarkKelly 47%@bgmasters 45%
Someone else 4%
5% undecidedhttps://t.co/S3dQ5HVAJj pic.twitter.com/ga8Xnin4td

— Emerson College Polling (@EmersonPolling) September 9, 2022

Masters closing the gap

Ursus Americanus said:

---

muddybrazos said:

---

Ursus Americanus said:

---

muddybrazos said:

---

Ursus Americanus said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

New Insider Advantage poll in Georgia is 3rd survery in a row to show Herschel Walker leading. https://t.co/CuRhNKPdSk pic.twitter.com/1wmwOPAJwF

— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) September 9, 2022

Noticed they switched from RV to has 51 or 52 senate seats LV as well..

---

I think when all is said and done, the GOP has a great chance to win 51 or 52 senate seats, and will retake the House with at least 25 seat gain.

And Abbott, DeSantis, and Kemp will all win easily at the governor level.

---

Dont Forget Kari Lake. She looks really strong and someone to keep an eye on as a future VP candidate for Desantis.

---

I think the GOP establishment has their heart set on Tim Scott as a veep.

---

I hate to break their hearts but that one is a non starter for me and the other ultra magas. Tim is a nice guy but he is just more of the same which is obviously why the establishment would want him.

---

You always balance a ticket between a populist and establishment, it's the formula of a coalition. Reagan paired with Bush, Trump with Pence.

---

Trump wont make that mistake twice.

Married A Horn said:

---

Ursus Americanus said:

---

muddybrazos said:

---

Ursus Americanus said:

---

muddybrazos said:

---

Ursus Americanus said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

New Insider Advantage poll in Georgia is 3rd survery in a row to show Herschel Walker leading. https://t.co/CuRhNKPdSk pic.twitter.com/1wmwOPAJwF

— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) September 9, 2022

Noticed they switched from RV to has 51 or 52 senate seats LV as well..

---

I think when all is said and done, the GOP has a great chance to win 51 or 52 senate seats, and will retake the House with at least 25 seat gain.

And Abbott, DeSantis, and Kemp will all win easily at the governor level.

---

Dont Forget Kari Lake. She looks really strong and someone to keep an eye on as a future VP candidate for Desantis.

---

I think the GOP establishment has their heart set on Tim Scott as a veep.

---

I hate to break their hearts but that one is a non starter for me and the other ultra magas. Tim is a nice guy but he is just more of the same which is obviously why the establishment would want him.

---

You always balance a ticket between a populist and establishment, it's the formula of a coalition. Reagan paired with Bush, Trump with Pence.

---

Trump wont make that mistake twice.

---

Neither will I

4th and Inches said:

---

ARIZONA POLL:

US Senate:@CaptMarkKelly 47%@bgmasters 45%
Someone else 4%
5% undecidedhttps://t.co/S3dQ5HVAJj pic.twitter.com/ga8Xnin4td

— Emerson College Polling (@EmersonPolling) September 9, 2022

Masters closing the gap

---

Rule of thumb to interpret that: most of the "someone else" voters will not vote, and the challenger usually will win the undecideds 60/40-ish. So the race is a actually dead heat (to extent that poll reflects the electorate.). Kelly loses another point and he's toSt.

Kelly's task now is to shrink the electorate by making the undecideds so afraid to vote for Masters that they do not vote at all So this race should see a lot of very negative ads run against Masters.

I think undecideds break for the candidates in the same proportion as the last poll. In this case, it's essentially a tie race

I have have been seeing a noticeable decline in the "See you in November." swagger coming out the Left. It has been replaced by mental gynastics and illogical explanations of why they will route the R's in the midterms. We are now in their denial stage of grief..

— Quantus Polls and News (@QPollsandnews) September 10, 2022

Here we go..

Osodecentx said:

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I think undecideds break for the candidates in the same proportion as the last poll. In this case, it's essentially a tie race

---

Yep.. essentially a tie.

When a candidate is below 50, by definition he has lost support of several percentage point of those who voted for him previously. Those are hard voters to get back, more likely to not vote than return to him, should they write off the challenger as too unpalatable. So an incumbent that is very far below 50 has a problem. 49? Yeah, he can squeak by. But 44? Toast. He will not be able to gain back the voters in that 6+ percentage point gap. So his task is to tar up the challenger so bad that the undecideds simply don't vote (or go 3rd party).

You are a good example. Biden doesn't care that you won't vote for him. He has to make sure you don't change your mind on Trump, and either not vote or throw your vote away on a 3rd party. Either one is a win for Joe.

THATS why the Dems keep hounding Trump with one scandal after another, impeachment, J6 Cmee, state level investigations, etc…... They're targeting you, my friend. They want to keep him good & scuffed up so you won't weaken in your resolve to sit the next one out.

And it's been pretty successful so far.

whiterock said:

---

Osodecentx said:

---

I think undecideds break for the candidates in the same proportion as the last poll. In this case, it's essentially a tie race

---

Yep.. essentially a tie.

When a candidate is below 50, by definition he has lost support of several percentage point of those who voted for him previously. Those are hard voters to get back, more likely to not vote than return to him, should they write off the challenger as too unpalatable. So an incumbent that is very far below 50 has a problem. 49? Yeah, he can squeak by. But 44? Toast. He will not be able to gain back the voters in that 6+ percentage point gap. So his task is to tar up the challenger so bad that the undecideds simply don't vote (or go 3rd party).

You are a good example. Biden doesn't care that you won't vote for him. He has to make sure you don't change your mind on Trump, and either not vote or throw your vote away on a 3rd party. Either one is a win for Joe.

THATS why the Dems keep hounding Trump with one scandal after another, impeachment, J6 Cmee, state level investigations, etc…... They're targeting you, my friend. They want to keep him good & scuffed up so you won't weaken in your resolve to sit the next one out.

And it's been pretty successful so far.

---

Trump has accomplished that, not the Dems

Osodecentx said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Osodecentx said:

---

I think undecideds break for the candidates in the same proportion as the last poll. In this case, it's essentially a tie race

---

Yep.. essentially a tie.

When a candidate is below 50, by definition he has lost support of several percentage point of those who voted for him previously. Those are hard voters to get back, more likely to not vote than return to him, should they write off the challenger as too unpalatable. So an incumbent that is very far below 50 has a problem. 49? Yeah, he can squeak by. But 44? Toast. He will not be able to gain back the voters in that 6+ percentage point gap. So his task is to tar up the challenger so bad that the undecideds simply don't vote (or go 3rd party).

You are a good example. Biden doesn't care that you won't vote for him. He has to make sure you don't change your mind on Trump, and either not vote or throw your vote away on a 3rd party. Either one is a win for Joe.

THATS why the Dems keep hounding Trump with one scandal after another, impeachment, J6 Cmee, state level investigations, etc…... They're targeting you, my friend. They want to keep him good & scuffed up so you won't weaken in your resolve to sit the next one out.

And it's been pretty successful so far.

---

Trump has accomplished that, not the Dems

---

Don't blame Whiterock. He voted for Kodos.

C. Jordan said:

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Looks really good for Dems right now.

They can thank Trump and his promotion of awful candidates: Vance, Oz, and Walker, among others.

---

At least two of the ones you mentioned are going to win.

The Washington Post Editorial Board: Democrat John Fetterman needs to debate more than once for U.S. Senatehttps://t.co/0d5yUSuEyt

— Ryan Saavedra (@RealSaavedra) September 12, 2022

Cobretti said:

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The Washington Post Editorial Board: Democrat John Fetterman needs to debate more than once for U.S. Senatehttps://t.co/0d5yUSuEyt

— Ryan Saavedra (@RealSaavedra) September 12, 2022

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that would destroy any chance he has.. good gosh he is a terrible orator.

John Fetterman gave a speech in Montgomery County yesterday.

Here are the highlights. pic.twitter.com/8udMddHAcQ

— Greg Price (@greg_price11) September 12, 2022

Welp

John Fetterman failed to disclose owning eight properties https://t.co/SFFCn8yiI6 via @MailOnline

— Comfortably Smug (@ComfortablySmug) September 13, 2022

Cobretti said:

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Welp

John Fetterman failed to disclose owning eight properties https://t.co/SFFCn8yiI6 via @MailOnline

— Comfortably Smug (@ComfortablySmug) September 13, 2022

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he would fit right in up in DC..

Who else remembers the guy who was on the ethics committee that didn't pay his taxes on his rental property or didn't pay income tax on his rental property income ( cant remember)

Harrison Bergeron said:

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I don't get Fetterman. I would not vote for him to be village mayor. Oz is basically a Democrat, so I understand he may not fire up the base, but come one - we as a country should be able to do better than Fetterman.

---

The irony of the ultramagas supporting Oz but complaining about establishment and RINOs.

ATL Bear said:

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Harrison Bergeron said:

---

I don't get Fetterman. I would not vote for him to be village mayor. Oz is basically a Democrat, so I understand he may not fire up the base, but come one - we as a country should be able to do better than Fetterman.

---

The irony of the ultramagas supporting Oz but complaining about establishment and RINOs.

---

based on polling, he laggs the ultra maga vote.

Who they support? Fetterman is the Joe Biden of Bernie Sanders

ATL Bear said:

---

Harrison Bergeron said:

---

I don't get Fetterman. I would not vote for him to be village mayor. Oz is basically a Democrat, so I understand he may not fire up the base, but come one - we as a country should be able to do better than Fetterman.

---

The irony of the ultramagas supporting Oz but complaining about establishment and RINOs.

---

I think oz is trailing because a conservative leaning voter is more likely to sit out between two bad choices than a left leaning voter, who tend to view voting with the blue team no matter what vigor if you believe social media.

4th and Inches said:

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Vote Red: "R E D" Remove-Every-Democrat

---

If that we're the strategy, there are some better primary candidates that should have been supported rather than ostracized. And no, I don't mean Liz Cheney.

ATL Bear said:

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4th and Inches said:

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Vote Red: "R E D" Remove-Every-Democrat

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If that we're the strategy, there are some better primary candidates that should have been supported rather than ostracized. And no, I don't mean Liz Cheney.

---

agreed. we have a dispassionate voter base as well as a mostly clueless one.

The GOP could be hammering the Dems about a half dozen things based on polling but 90% of washington GOP leadership is silent.

Osodecentx said:

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4th and Inches said:

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Redbrickbear said:

---

C. Jordan said:

---

Looks really good for Dems right now.

They can thank Trump and his promotion of awful candidates: Vance, Oz, and Walker, among others.

---

I agree with you on Oz…fetterman is gonna win in PA.

But Vance is a good candidate and is gonna win Ohio.

---

fetterman may not make it to the election.. watch video of him, he is in bad shape. Oz is not great canidate but fetterman is terrible. If he wins, people arent paying attention or voting against Oz

Vance is gonna win Ohio.

Walker is gonna win GA.

Laxalt is leading in NV, watch that one

Johnson is -4 in WI according to FoX poll but Fox overstated WI polling by 6.5 in 2020.. this is a horse race folks

---

Just updating. Using 538.com projections

Fetterman remains in the lead, but race is tightening (my perception). Fetterman has 80% chance of winning

Vance continues to lead in Ohio. 72% chance of victory

Warnock narrowly ahead in GA, 538 basically says too close to call. Warnock with 52% chance of victory.

Masto over Laxalt in Nevada, but close. Masto 60% chance of victory

Johnson even with Barnes and has momentum. Johnson with 51% chance of victory.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/

---

Another update. 538.com projections

Fetterman 52%-45.7. Fetterman has 82% chance of winning.

Vance 51.7-48.3. Vance has 69% chance of winning.

Warnock 49.9 - 48.5. Warnock has 55% chance of winning.

Masto 49.2-47.4. Masto has a 60% chance of winning.

Johnson 50.4-49.6. Johnson has a 55% chance of winning.

Kelly 51.5- 48.4. Kelly has 77% chance of winning.

If the above hold true, Dems pick up 1 seat.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/

4th and Inches said:

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Ursus Americanus said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

Harrison Bergeron said:

---

I don't get Fetterman. I would not vote for him to be village mayor. Oz is basically a Democrat, so I understand he may not fire up the base, but come one - we as a country should be able to do better than Fetterman.

---

The irony of the ultramagas supporting Oz but complaining about establishment and RINOs.

---

I think oz is trailing because a conservative leaning voter is more likely to sit out between two bad choices than a left leaning voter, who tend to view voting with the blue team no matter what vigor if you believe social media.

---

thats because those conservative voters are dumber than a box of hammers.

---

Hammers are definitely bucking the trend if they don't support Oz...he's projected to win 90+ percent of the tool vote.

Sam Lowry said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

Ursus Americanus said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

Harrison Bergeron said:

---

I don't get Fetterman. I would not vote for him to be village mayor. Oz is basically a Democrat, so I understand he may not fire up the base, but come one - we as a country should be able to do better than Fetterman.

---

The irony of the ultramagas supporting Oz but complaining about establishment and RINOs.

---

I think oz is trailing because a conservative leaning voter is more likely to sit out between two bad choices than a left leaning voter, who tend to view voting with the blue team no matter what vigor if you believe social media.

---

thats because those conservative voters are dumber than a box of hammers.

---

Hammers are definitely bucking the trend if they don't support Oz...he's projected to win 90+ percent of the tool vote.

---

cross tabs show he has your vote and the indie vote.. he doesnt have the trumpkin vote yet.

Osodecentx said:

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Osodecentx said:

---

4th and Inches said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

---

C. Jordan said:

---

Looks really good for Dems right now.

They can thank Trump and his promotion of awful candidates: Vance, Oz, and Walker, among others.

---

I agree with you on Oz…fetterman is gonna win in PA.

But Vance is a good candidate and is gonna win Ohio.

---

fetterman may not make it to the election.. watch video of him, he is in bad shape. Oz is not great canidate but fetterman is terrible. If he wins, people arent paying attention or voting against Oz

Vance is gonna win Ohio.

Walker is gonna win GA.

Laxalt is leading in NV, watch that one

Johnson is -4 in WI according to FoX poll but Fox overstated WI polling by 6.5 in 2020.. this is a horse race folks

---

Just updating. Using 538.com projections

Fetterman remains in the lead, but race is tightening (my perception). Fetterman has 80% chance of winning

Vance continues to lead in Ohio. 72% chance of victory

Warnock narrowly ahead in GA, 538 basically says too close to call. Warnock with 52% chance of victory.

Masto over Laxalt in Nevada, but close. Masto 60% chance of victory

Johnson even with Barnes and has momentum. Johnson with 51% chance of victory.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/

---

Another update. 538.com projections

Fetterman 52%-45.7. Fetterman has 82% chance of winning.

Vance 51.7-48.3. Vance has 69% chance of winning.

Warnock 49.9 - 48.5. Warnock has 55% chance of winning.

Masto 49.2-47.4. Masto has a 60% chance of winning.

Johnson 50.4-49.6. Johnson has a 55% chance of winning.

Kelly 51.5- 48.4. Kelly has 77% chance of winning.

If the above hold true, Dems pick up 1 seat.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/

---

trash..

You are welcome