OFFICIAL ELECTION THREAD, 11-8-22

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Jack Bauer
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10:09p, 11/11/22
Was Eric Holder in Arizona this week with this outrage?

Is Eric Holder an election denier??!!! Is democracy literally being threatened?

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Cobretti
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10:10p, 11/11/22
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4th and Inches
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In reply to fubar • 10:11p, 11/11/22
fubar said:
4th and Inches said:
fubar said:
CNN just called AZ for Kelly.

49-49.
thats nice.. lets count all the votes first.

They are probably right..
You're not going to be satisfied no matter what. Let's wait! Count all the votes!

What!?!? This **** is taking too long! We getting ripped off!
its ok, i will wait for you read my whole post
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In reply to Cobretti • 10:23p, 11/11/22
Cobretti said:

I did chuckle.
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Canada2017
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In reply to Porteroso • 10:25p, 11/11/22
Trump is going to screw over Walker .

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Porteroso
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In reply to Canada2017 • 10:29p, 11/11/22
Canada2017 said:
Trump is going to screw over Walker .


Of course he will, or try to.
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Forest Bueller
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In reply to Redbrickbear • 10:34p, 11/11/22
Redbrickbear said:
Married A Horn said:
He Hate Me said:
Doc Holliday said:
Her opponent is going back to driving for Uber.



I did hear a democrat pundit say Boebert was going to get a job at onlyfans...

Its ok to be sexist and misogynistic against women...as long as they are conservative women.


Said by a male pundit as the women pundits smirked or laughed.
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Forest Bueller
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In reply to 4th and Inches • 10:40p, 11/11/22
4th and Inches said:
Adriacus Peratuun said:
Forest Bueller_bf said:
Adriacus Peratuun said:
Nevada context:

Vegas [Clark County] has about 45,000 ballots outstanding
Reno [Washoe County] has about 21,000 ballots outstanding
All other Counties combined have about 7,000 ballots outstanding.

Key Issue: the early mail-in ballots were heavily D. As the receipt date on mail-in ballots moves later, the discrepancy between D and R became less.

D needs about 41,000 of the remaining [estimated] 73,000 votes to overtake the current lead. That is 56.16%.

The most recent ballot drops have been very close to that range. If the %s hold, the D likely wins. If they continue dropping [even slightly] the R wins.

And there are exactly ZERO post-COVID elections to use as a Go By to analyze the trend.
Yea looks like the Nevada D comes out about 1000 votes ahead at the current trend.

That should trigger a recount, but if they need 9000, you know they are getting 9001.

That last drop from Clark County was really tough for Laxalt. But Clark is almost done. The last of those votes will put her ahead and he has to hope that the remaining votes everywhere else can swing it back.
Laxalt has remained confident that he will prevail.


I hope he knows what he is talking about, if for no other reason to witness the ****-show the Georgia runoff will be when it has actual meaning.
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Forest Bueller
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In reply to Porteroso • 10:42p, 11/11/22
Porteroso said:
Cobretti said:

I did chuckle.


Probably from a writer, but that was funny. Warnock is a snake, but he may still win.
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Harrison Bergeron
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In reply to Jack Bauer • 11:12p, 11/11/22
Jack Bauer said:
Was Eric Holder in Arizona this week with this outrage?



Stupid corrupt blue gum.
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Jack Bauer
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11:33p, 11/11/22
AZ GOVERNOR
Katie Hobbs (D) - 1.1M (+31k)
Kari Lake (R) - 1.069M
84% votes counted

I've 'heard' all the Dem friendly early voting drops are nearly done but Kari Lake needs to start inching closer on the next drop to feel like she can win this.

Either way, this process is incompetence and unacceptable and questioning it is not a "threat to democracy'.



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whiterock
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In reply to FLBear5630 • 6:01a, 11/12/22
RMF5630 said:
Oldbear83 said:
Doc Holliday said:
We need to dump Trump, but if we go back to Romney and Paul Ryan types, I'm not supporting the party at all.
Agreed.

Spine is a must-have.
Spine is one thing. Brown Shirt intimidation is another.

You can't govern to spite 50% of the populati0n. You can't intimidate people from running for office with threats. This is not the 2016 Trump and the MAGA hat. For whatever reason, no matter who is right or wrong, MAGA has morphed into a vindictive, threatening group that has no tolerance for anyone that does not think like them. That is NOT a governing party. That is a danger.
Democrats do that. Literally. Calling half the public a threat to democracy. Using the full range of federal and state level agencies to investigate and prosecute the standard bearer of the opposing party for 6 full years (so far batting .0000)

You need to listen to less MSNBC.

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sombear
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11:25a, 11/12/22
Passing along some fascinating vote info from GOP. Much of this is public by now:

* Record % of voters made up their mind the last few days.
* Record ticket-splitting - e.g., vote for GOP Gov but Dem Senate, hurting GOP in GA, NV, AZ, OH, NH
* Independents broke hard and late for Dems - almost never happens in midterm with unpopular Pres. Even pronounced in key races.
* GOP met turnout metrics.
* GOP will win popular vote by 4% with little or nothing to show for it.
* Unusually high % of voters voted against their top issue - e.g., Fetterman won majority of voters who cited crime as their top issue; Warnock leading among those saying inflation top issue.
* Suburbs hurt the GOP overall, but strong for GOP in FL, NY, TX, and a few other states.
* As I posted before the election, GOP Senate candidate quality was around -2.5%, meaning based on metrics, the entire slate of GOP candidates was 2.5% behind an average slate. I did not get breakdowns, but that likely means some of our worst GOP Senate candidates were easily -5% to -7%, which is historically bad.
* GOP House candidates were an average +2 quality. Strong slate.
* In House, outside of FL, NY, and CA (likely), GOP did good enough to make tough races close but still lose. In other words, GOP made races close where they were substantial underdogs, but could not get over the edge in races where they were close underdogs. If there were any sort of wave (which is typical with an unpopular Pres) GOP would have got the extra ~1% it needed in tens of races.
* GOP continued to improve with Hispanics, African Americans, and Asians.
* Weak Gov/Senate candidates hurt GOP House races in PA, MI, MD, NH. Zeldin, even though he lost, was huge for GOP House in NY.
* Trump disapproval among all voters was ~60%. Biden disapproval was ~55%. Trump also worse on "strong disapproval."
* Record high approval for Pelosi - due to sympathy over attack on husband. One GOP insider believes this incident had more impact than any other single recent issue, which I find hard to believe.
* About the same % of voters made their decision based on Biden (for or against) and Trump (for or against). This is unprecedented. Midterm has always been a verdict on a sitting Pres, with leading opposition figure barely on radar.

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FLBear5630
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In reply to whiterock • 11:45a, 11/12/22
whiterock said:
RMF5630 said:
Oldbear83 said:
Doc Holliday said:
We need to dump Trump, but if we go back to Romney and Paul Ryan types, I'm not supporting the party at all.
Agreed.

Spine is a must-have.
Spine is one thing. Brown Shirt intimidation is another.

You can't govern to spite 50% of the populati0n. You can't intimidate people from running for office with threats. This is not the 2016 Trump and the MAGA hat. For whatever reason, no matter who is right or wrong, MAGA has morphed into a vindictive, threatening group that has no tolerance for anyone that does not think like them. That is NOT a governing party. That is a danger.
Democrats do that. Literally. Calling half the public a threat to democracy. Using the full range of federal and state level agencies to investigate and prosecute the standard bearer of the opposing party for 6 full years (so far batting .0000)

You need to listen to less MSNBC.



And the result? Nation is In such good shape. Between Progressives and MAGAs nothing getting done. GOP just had a loser midterm, chance Dems are keeping both Sen and Houe. MAGA only, Trump can save the Nation **** has just about set us up for checkmate. Trump and his cronies energizes Dems. They want him front and center. Independents broke for Dems, not Trump.

By the way, quit with the insult ***** You spout ho mature you are and then go MSNBC insult ***** Grow up.
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FLBear5630
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12:06p, 11/12/22
Fillibuster is done if Sen stays Dem. Checkmate
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Aliceinbubbleland
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In reply to FLBear5630 • 1:26p, 11/12/22
With Manchin? I think he would not vote to end.
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FLBear5630
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In reply to Aliceinbubbleland • 1:39p, 11/12/22
Aliceinbubbleland said:
With Manchin? I think he would not vote to end.
He also wasn't going to vote for the Green New Deal...
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Aliceinbubbleland
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In reply to FLBear5630 • 1:57p, 11/12/22
Yeah. Maybe West Virginia gets more pork.
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Osodecentx
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In reply to 4th and Inches • 2:22p, 11/12/22
4th and Inches said:
Adriacus Peratuun said:
Forest Bueller_bf said:
Adriacus Peratuun said:
Nevada context:

Vegas [Clark County] has about 45,000 ballots outstanding
Reno [Washoe County] has about 21,000 ballots outstanding
All other Counties combined have about 7,000 ballots outstanding.

Key Issue: the early mail-in ballots were heavily D. As the receipt date on mail-in ballots moves later, the discrepancy between D and R became less.

D needs about 41,000 of the remaining [estimated] 73,000 votes to overtake the current lead. That is 56.16%.

The most recent ballot drops have been very close to that range. If the %s hold, the D likely wins. If they continue dropping [even slightly] the R wins.

And there are exactly ZERO post-COVID elections to use as a Go By to analyze the trend.
Yea looks like the Nevada D comes out about 1000 votes ahead at the current trend.

That should trigger a recount, but if they need 9000, you know they are getting 9001.

That last drop from Clark County was really tough for Laxalt. But Clark is almost done. The last of those votes will put her ahead and he has to hope that the remaining votes everywhere else can swing it back.
Laxalt has remained confident that he will prevail.
Republican challenger Adam Laxalt's lead over Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) has shrunk to fewer than 900 votes, with tens of thousands of votes still being counted in Clark County, Nevada's most populous and a heavily Democratic area
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Osodecentx
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2:27p, 11/12/22
Adam Laxalt, the Republican Senate candidate in Nevada and one of the most vocal proponents of Donald J. Trump's stolen-election conspiracy theories, indicated on Twitter on Saturday that he may not drag out his own race with claims of fraud. If the ballots now being counted continue to trend toward his Democratic opponent, Senator Catherine Cortez Masto, "she will overtake us," he wrote. "Thanks for all the prayers from millions of Nevadans and Americans who hope we can still take back the Senate and start taking our country back."
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4th and Inches
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2:46p, 11/12/22
First time i have seen he was in doubt was today. It will be close. The gov race was called for the GOP guy.

Its interesting how many split tickets there are..

People yell Trump caused this but 175 Trump endorsed canidates won. Its not about Trump, its about messaging.

The ones with no message on how to solve problems lost. Attacking opponents didnt win, problem solving messages won. Look at who won and why..
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Adriacus Peratuun
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In reply to Osodecentx • 2:47p, 11/12/22
Osodecentx said:
Adam Laxalt, the Republican Senate candidate in Nevada and one of the most vocal proponents of Donald J. Trump's stolen-election conspiracy theories, indicated on Twitter on Saturday that he may not drag out his own race with claims of fraud. If the ballots now being counted continue to trend toward his Democratic opponent, Senator Catherine Cortez Masto, "she will overtake us," he wrote. "Thanks for all the prayers from millions of Nevadans and Americans who hope we can still take back the Senate and start taking our country back."
Interesting edit of his full comment to alter the context.
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Oldbear83
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In reply to 4th and Inches • 2:53p, 11/12/22
4th and Inches said:
First time i have seen he was in doubt was today. It will be close. The gov race was called for the GOP guy.

Its interesting how many split tickets there are..

People yell Trump caused this but 175 Trump endorsed canidates won. Its not about Trump, its about messaging.

The ones with no message on how to solve problems lost. Attacking opponents didnt win, problem solving messages won. Look at who won and why..
Funny how so many people reached conclusions while the votes were still being counted.

A lot of possible outcomes here, and no one really knows right now how it will play out.

That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
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Osodecentx
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In reply to Adriacus Peratuun • 3:08p, 11/12/22
Adriacus Peratuun said:
Osodecentx said:
Adam Laxalt, the Republican Senate candidate in Nevada and one of the most vocal proponents of Donald J. Trump's stolen-election conspiracy theories, indicated on Twitter on Saturday that he may not drag out his own race with claims of fraud. If the ballots now being counted continue to trend toward his Democratic opponent, Senator Catherine Cortez Masto, "she will overtake us," he wrote. "Thanks for all the prayers from millions of Nevadans and Americans who hope we can still take back the Senate and start taking our country back."
Interesting edit of his full comment to alter the context.
Look forward to seeing the context you think appropriate.

Laxalt is an election denier carrying water for Trump.
He thinks the trend is bad.

I wanted him to win
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sombear
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In reply to Oldbear83 • 3:12p, 11/12/22
Oldbear83 said:
4th and Inches said:
First time i have seen he was in doubt was today. It will be close. The gov race was called for the GOP guy.

Its interesting how many split tickets there are..

People yell Trump caused this but 175 Trump endorsed canidates won. Its not about Trump, its about messaging.

The ones with no message on how to solve problems lost. Attacking opponents didnt win, problem solving messages won. Look at who won and why..
Funny how so many people reached conclusions while the votes were still being counted.

A lot of possible outcomes here, and no one really knows right now how it will play out.



Both parties have pretty much known since Tuesday. They know these precincts and outstanding votes. Just like Trump knew in 2020 that he didn't come close to meeting his numbers in PA or MI yet pretended outstanding votes would help him.
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Oldbear83
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In reply to sombear • 3:13p, 11/12/22
sombear said:
Oldbear83 said:
4th and Inches said:
First time i have seen he was in doubt was today. It will be close. The gov race was called for the GOP guy.

Its interesting how many split tickets there are..

People yell Trump caused this but 175 Trump endorsed canidates won. Its not about Trump, its about messaging.

The ones with no message on how to solve problems lost. Attacking opponents didnt win, problem solving messages won. Look at who won and why..
Funny how so many people reached conclusions while the votes were still being counted.

A lot of possible outcomes here, and no one really knows right now how it will play out.



Both parties have pretty much known since Tuesday. They know these precincts and outstanding votes. Just like Trump knew in 2020 that he didn't come close to meeting his numbers in PA or MI yet pretended outstanding votes would help him.
Maybe they do, maybe they don't. But if the Democrats were about to lose the Senate unless something went really weird, would you expect them to be honest about it?
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
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Osodecentx
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In reply to 4th and Inches • 3:16p, 11/12/22
4th and Inches said:
First time i have seen he was in doubt was today. It will be close. The gov race was called for the GOP guy.

Its interesting how many split tickets there are..

People yell Trump caused this but 175 Trump endorsed canidates won. Its not about Trump, its about messaging.

The ones with no message on how to solve problems lost. Attacking opponents didnt win, problem solving messages won. Look at who won and why..
Trump caused this. There were winning candidates who didn't run because Trump threatened to take them down. Trump single handedly delivered 4 senate seats to the Dems, 2 in Georgia and 2 in Arizona. Trump made Schumer Great Again.
He recruited a bunch of candidates who lost. He endorsed a bunch of incumbent Republicans in ruby red states who won..
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4th and Inches
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3:36p, 11/12/22
Trump is the cause of all your problems.. we get it.
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sombear
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In reply to Oldbear83 • 3:43p, 11/12/22
Oldbear83 said:
sombear said:
Oldbear83 said:
4th and Inches said:
First time i have seen he was in doubt was today. It will be close. The gov race was called for the GOP guy.

Its interesting how many split tickets there are..

People yell Trump caused this but 175 Trump endorsed canidates won. Its not about Trump, its about messaging.

The ones with no message on how to solve problems lost. Attacking opponents didnt win, problem solving messages won. Look at who won and why..
Funny how so many people reached conclusions while the votes were still being counted.

A lot of possible outcomes here, and no one really knows right now how it will play out.



Both parties have pretty much known since Tuesday. They know these precincts and outstanding votes. Just like Trump knew in 2020 that he didn't come close to meeting his numbers in PA or MI yet pretended outstanding votes would help him.
Maybe they do, maybe they don't. But if the Democrats were about to lose the Senate unless something went really weird, would you expect them to be honest about it?


No, it's part of the game, but they wouldn't be carrying on about it 2 years later.
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Osodecentx
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In reply to 4th and Inches • 3:51p, 11/12/22
4th and Inches said:
Trump is the cause of all your problems.. we get it.


My problem is Leader Schumer
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4th and Inches
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3:59p, 11/12/22
As i said, weird split tickets
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4:48p, 11/12/22
The final point of sombear's post is why Trump sunk the midterm. A historic number of votes were cast not based upon the midterm performance of the sitting President, but based upon a past President.

It was a split referendum on 2 presidents, which does not work out in the GOP's favor. Dems got to avoid complete annihilation thanks to Trump. If Biden's performance had been the top issue, GOP would control Congress. One of the worst Presidents of all time is being made to look acceptable thanks to Trump.
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FLBear5630
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In reply to Porteroso • 6:42p, 11/12/22
Porteroso said:
The final point of sombear's post is why Trump sunk the midterm. A historic number of votes were cast not based upon the midterm performance of the sitting President, but based upon a past President.

It was a split referendum on 2 presidents, which does not work out in the GOP's favor. Dems got to avoid complete annihilation thanks to Trump. If Biden's performance had been the top issue, GOP would control Congress. One of the worst Presidents of all time is being made to look acceptable thanks to Trump.
BINGO!
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boognish_bear
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12:55a, 11/13/22
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Canada2017
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In reply to boognish_bear • 7:13a, 11/13/22
boognish_bear said:


Massive immigration ( legal and illegal ) since Teddy Kennedy's legislation took affect destroyed the Republican Party .

The inability, the lack of will , to match Dem 'voter harvesting' in the grimy inner cities destroyed the Republican Party .

Single parenting , debt , loneliness, despair, narcotic dependency, ignorance, the lack of skills ………push individuals into the empty promises of socialism .

And it's not the Republicans who are offering socialism.





Welcome to Argentina .
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