Recession

155,774 Views | 1918 Replies | Last: 47 min ago by J.R.
EatMoreSalmon
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BigGameBaylorBear said:



This is not sustainable

George Washington would be appalled.
Waco1947
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The latest jobs report showed that the US economy likely added 178,000 jobs in March, nearly triple expectations.
The unemployment rate dipped to 4.3%. Forecasts had it holding steady at 4.4% or even rising to 4.5%.
Health care and social assistance was once again the workhorse sector, accounting for half of the month's gains; however, job growth was the most widespread across industries since December 2023.
At first glance, Friday's report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the labor market wasn't on life support as previously feared, but rather was on solid footing at a much-needed time when war-driven economic shocks and uncertainty loom large.
Waco1947
whiterock
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Doc Holliday said:

whiterock said:



Eh I mean this is followed by a revised loss of 133,000 jobs in February.

Most of these workers are in healthcare and a huge portion of that just from workers on strike in healthcare.

Long term employment is a huge problem. The number of people unemployed for 27 weeks or more held at 1.8 million in March but has risen by 322,000 over the past year.

We have to be skeptical of arguments that romance the bad news and reject the good news.

The data is showing Trump economic policy is having its intended effect of reducing the trade deficit and building more domestic production capacity. That is not going to happen in a minute.
Doc Holliday
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whiterock said:

Doc Holliday said:

whiterock said:



Eh I mean this is followed by a revised loss of 133,000 jobs in February.

Most of these workers are in healthcare and a huge portion of that just from workers on strike in healthcare.

Long term employment is a huge problem. The number of people unemployed for 27 weeks or more held at 1.8 million in March but has risen by 322,000 over the past year.

We have to be skeptical of arguments that romance the bad news and reject the good news.

The data is showing Trump economic policy is having its intended effect of reducing the trade deficit and building more domestic production capacity. That is not going to happen in a minute.
We just need to look at the data straight up.

Salaries/wages are terrible. I just don't see the overall trend ending well over the next couple of decades.
whiterock
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Doc Holliday said:

whiterock said:

Doc Holliday said:

whiterock said:



Eh I mean this is followed by a revised loss of 133,000 jobs in February.

Most of these workers are in healthcare and a huge portion of that just from workers on strike in healthcare.

Long term employment is a huge problem. The number of people unemployed for 27 weeks or more held at 1.8 million in March but has risen by 322,000 over the past year.

We have to be skeptical of arguments that romance the bad news and reject the good news.

The data is showing Trump economic policy is having its intended effect of reducing the trade deficit and building more domestic production capacity. That is not going to happen in a minute.

We just need to look at the data straight up.

Salaries/wages are terrible. I just don't see the overall trend ending well over the next couple of decades.

...or.....we are in a massive transformation of the business model. A supercarrier does not turn on a dime. Neither does the largest economy in the world. But if you put the right incentives into place, the turn will happen. Leaving globalism means that we will produce increasingly greater percentages of goods here. it takes time for those factories to be built.

The investment numbers of the trade deal alone are enough to ensure GDP growth. Employment will follow.

we are at the bottom.
FLBear5630
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whiterock said:

Doc Holliday said:

whiterock said:

Doc Holliday said:

whiterock said:



Eh I mean this is followed by a revised loss of 133,000 jobs in February.

Most of these workers are in healthcare and a huge portion of that just from workers on strike in healthcare.

Long term employment is a huge problem. The number of people unemployed for 27 weeks or more held at 1.8 million in March but has risen by 322,000 over the past year.

We have to be skeptical of arguments that romance the bad news and reject the good news.

The data is showing Trump economic policy is having its intended effect of reducing the trade deficit and building more domestic production capacity. That is not going to happen in a minute.

We just need to look at the data straight up.

Salaries/wages are terrible. I just don't see the overall trend ending well over the next couple of decades.

...or.....we are in a massive transformation of the business model. A supercarrier does not turn on a dime. Neither does the largest economy in the world. But if you put the right incentives into place, the turn will happen. Leaving globalism means that we will produce increasingly greater percentages of goods here. it takes time for those factories to be built.

The investment numbers of the trade deal alone are enough to ensure GDP growth. Employment will follow.

we are at the bottom.

But, it has to be more than Wall Street value. Wall Street valuations are fine, but it has to get down to wages and production. Right now, those areas are not responding. I can see your position from the CEO spot, I watch it at Companies all the time. The CEO and Gen Counsel (for example) are separate from the company, they have contracts directly with the Board and different retirement, bonuses and perks. From their perspective, it is great. From the worker perspective, not so much. Everything you say is true, IF it turns into real wages and real production.

EVs are the best example, they looked great to Wall Street, but not turning out that way. But, maybe Musk got Trump to do the Iran War to raise gas prices, which is what EVs need to perk up sales. Hmmm... Never thought about that. Biden-esque manipulation in a GOP sort of way... : )
whiterock
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FLBear5630 said:

whiterock said:

Doc Holliday said:

whiterock said:

Doc Holliday said:

whiterock said:



Eh I mean this is followed by a revised loss of 133,000 jobs in February.

Most of these workers are in healthcare and a huge portion of that just from workers on strike in healthcare.

Long term employment is a huge problem. The number of people unemployed for 27 weeks or more held at 1.8 million in March but has risen by 322,000 over the past year.

We have to be skeptical of arguments that romance the bad news and reject the good news.

The data is showing Trump economic policy is having its intended effect of reducing the trade deficit and building more domestic production capacity. That is not going to happen in a minute.

We just need to look at the data straight up.

Salaries/wages are terrible. I just don't see the overall trend ending well over the next couple of decades.

...or.....we are in a massive transformation of the business model. A supercarrier does not turn on a dime. Neither does the largest economy in the world. But if you put the right incentives into place, the turn will happen. Leaving globalism means that we will produce increasingly greater percentages of goods here. it takes time for those factories to be built.

The investment numbers of the trade deal alone are enough to ensure GDP growth. Employment will follow.

we are at the bottom.

But, it has to be more than Wall Street value. Wall Street valuations are fine, but it has to get down to wages and production. Right now, those areas are not responding.
I did not mention Wall street. Just noted GDP stats.
I can see your position from the CEO spot, I watch it at Companies all the time. The CEO and Gen Counsel (for example) are separate from the company, they have contracts directly with the Board and different retirement, bonuses and perks. From their perspective, it is great. From the worker perspective, not so much. Everything you say is true, IF it turns into real wages and real production.
Again, you're imputing your own class-conflict template here. I'm talking macro-economics.

EVs are the best example, they looked great to Wall Street, but not turning out that way. But, maybe Musk got Trump to do the Iran War to raise gas prices, which is what EVs need to perk up sales. Hmmm... Never thought about that. Biden-esque manipulation in a GOP sort of way... : )

Macroeconomic fact: when companies invest in building or expanding factories, employment rises - short and long term. The data is clear that companies are investing more in plant capacity here, to avoid supply chain exposure to tariffs. Nothing extraordinary about that other than so many people refuse to see the plain, textbook macroeconomic dynamics at play, working exactly as they should.

The biggest problem here is expectations. Trump was elected to make big changes. And he did. In record time. But it's only been 6 months since they were actually implemented. The transition is just now getting underway. It just takes time for these changes to bear fruit. The numbers will improve as we move forward.
FLBear5630
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whiterock said:

FLBear5630 said:

whiterock said:

Doc Holliday said:

whiterock said:

Doc Holliday said:

whiterock said:



Eh I mean this is followed by a revised loss of 133,000 jobs in February.

Most of these workers are in healthcare and a huge portion of that just from workers on strike in healthcare.

Long term employment is a huge problem. The number of people unemployed for 27 weeks or more held at 1.8 million in March but has risen by 322,000 over the past year.

We have to be skeptical of arguments that romance the bad news and reject the good news.

The data is showing Trump economic policy is having its intended effect of reducing the trade deficit and building more domestic production capacity. That is not going to happen in a minute.

We just need to look at the data straight up.

Salaries/wages are terrible. I just don't see the overall trend ending well over the next couple of decades.

...or.....we are in a massive transformation of the business model. A supercarrier does not turn on a dime. Neither does the largest economy in the world. But if you put the right incentives into place, the turn will happen. Leaving globalism means that we will produce increasingly greater percentages of goods here. it takes time for those factories to be built.

The investment numbers of the trade deal alone are enough to ensure GDP growth. Employment will follow.

we are at the bottom.

But, it has to be more than Wall Street value. Wall Street valuations are fine, but it has to get down to wages and production. Right now, those areas are not responding.
I did not mention Wall street. Just noted GDP stats.
I can see your position from the CEO spot, I watch it at Companies all the time. The CEO and Gen Counsel (for example) are separate from the company, they have contracts directly with the Board and different retirement, bonuses and perks. From their perspective, it is great. From the worker perspective, not so much. Everything you say is true, IF it turns into real wages and real production.
Again, you're imputing your own class-conflict template here. I'm talking macro-economics.

EVs are the best example, they looked great to Wall Street, but not turning out that way. But, maybe Musk got Trump to do the Iran War to raise gas prices, which is what EVs need to perk up sales. Hmmm... Never thought about that. Biden-esque manipulation in a GOP sort of way... : )

Macroeconomic fact: when companies invest in building or expanding factories, employment rises - short and long term. The data is clear that companies are investing more in plant capacity here, to avoid supply chain exposure to tariffs. Nothing extraordinary about that other than so many people refuse to see the plain, textbook macroeconomic dynamics at play, working exactly as they should.

The biggest problem here is expectations. Trump was elected to make big changes. And he did. In record time. But it's only been 6 months since they were actually implemented. The transition is just now getting underway. It just takes time for these changes to bear fruit. The numbers will improve as we move forward.

No, he did not say that. Go back and check the record. He said he "When I win, I will immediately bring prices down," especially gas prices (drill, drill, drill), starting no wars. Higher fuel costs, cost of living the same, a 1.5T Defense Budget and constant military actions is NOT what he ran and won on. The only ones that seem better off are his family and his inner circle.

You keep going into the realities of macroeconomics, he didn't. Bessent didn't. You may feel it it is great and reasonable, so vote for him. But, don't tell the rest of us, that we have it wrong.
BUDOS
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And especially when economists have a hard time agreeing. Some wonder if Trump's credibility is suspect. I wonder about such people. Additionally I wonder if we will actually have a decent qualified candidate to choose from. However I realize that we have allowed such a statement to become a joke.
Oldbear83
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whiterock said:

Doc Holliday said:

whiterock said:

Doc Holliday said:

whiterock said:



Eh I mean this is followed by a revised loss of 133,000 jobs in February.

Most of these workers are in healthcare and a huge portion of that just from workers on strike in healthcare.

Long term employment is a huge problem. The number of people unemployed for 27 weeks or more held at 1.8 million in March but has risen by 322,000 over the past year.

We have to be skeptical of arguments that romance the bad news and reject the good news.

The data is showing Trump economic policy is having its intended effect of reducing the trade deficit and building more domestic production capacity. That is not going to happen in a minute.

We just need to look at the data straight up.

Salaries/wages are terrible. I just don't see the overall trend ending well over the next couple of decades.

...or.....we are in a massive transformation of the business model. A supercarrier does not turn on a dime. Neither does the largest economy in the world. But if you put the right incentives into place, the turn will happen. Leaving globalism means that we will produce increasingly greater percentages of goods here. it takes time for those factories to be built.

The investment numbers of the trade deal alone are enough to ensure GDP growth. Employment will follow.

we are at the bottom.

Again whiterock, your problem is that pretty rhetoric won't change the base facts.

Job losses are epidemic, wages are in decline, and there is no evidence that ordinary people are even noticed by the corporations.

Hop over to Glassdoor.com sometime and read the forums.
FLBear5630
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BUDOS said:

And especially when economists have a hard time agreeing. Some wonder if Trump's credibility is suspect. I wonder about such people. Additionally I wonder if we will actually have a decent qualified candidate to choose from. However I realize that we have allowed such a statement to become a joke.

"I wonder if we will actually have a decent qualified candidate to choose from. However I realize that we have allowed such a statement to become a joke."



This has been my biggest complaint since 2008, technically I would say 2000 but W didn't really run the Nation Cheney and Rumsfeld did. May not agree with them, but they were adults.

If you would have told me I voted for Trump in 1988, 92, 96, 00, 04, or 08 I would have thought it was a prank. Donald Trump the guy who destroyed Atlantic City, the USFL, and ran his Dad's real estate empire into the dirt to the point he had to go on reality TV was the best choice????? Damn, we have fallen.
whiterock
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Oldbear83 said:

whiterock said:

Doc Holliday said:

whiterock said:

Doc Holliday said:

whiterock said:



Eh I mean this is followed by a revised loss of 133,000 jobs in February.

Most of these workers are in healthcare and a huge portion of that just from workers on strike in healthcare.

Long term employment is a huge problem. The number of people unemployed for 27 weeks or more held at 1.8 million in March but has risen by 322,000 over the past year.

We have to be skeptical of arguments that romance the bad news and reject the good news.

The data is showing Trump economic policy is having its intended effect of reducing the trade deficit and building more domestic production capacity. That is not going to happen in a minute.

We just need to look at the data straight up.

Salaries/wages are terrible. I just don't see the overall trend ending well over the next couple of decades.

...or.....we are in a massive transformation of the business model. A supercarrier does not turn on a dime. Neither does the largest economy in the world. But if you put the right incentives into place, the turn will happen. Leaving globalism means that we will produce increasingly greater percentages of goods here. it takes time for those factories to be built.

The investment numbers of the trade deal alone are enough to ensure GDP growth. Employment will follow.

we are at the bottom.

Again whiterock, your problem is that pretty rhetoric won't change the base facts.

Job losses are epidemic, wages are in decline, and there is no evidence that ordinary people are even noticed by the corporations.

Hop over to Glassdoor.com sometime and read the forums.

Your statements are at odds with the data. Employment is not collapsing. It's stable. Wages are not in freefall. They're rising. And most indicators point to a mounting economic boom. Check out freight indicators:

BUDOS
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Once again, preach on!
Oldbear83
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Yet again, whiterock, you are selling a narrative, not supporting it with facts.

Walk down your street and ask your neighbors how the economy is doing.

D. C. Bear
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Oldbear83 said:

Yet again, whiterock, you are selling a narrative, not supporting it with facts.

Walk down your street and ask your neighbors how the economy is doing.




He did use facts to support his "narrative." I don't know the extent to which they support his"narrative,", but he's definitely using facts.
whiterock
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D. C. Bear said:

Oldbear83 said:

Yet again, whiterock, you are selling a narrative, not supporting it with facts.

Walk down your street and ask your neighbors how the economy is doing.




He did use facts to support his "narrative." I don't know the extent to which they support his"narrative,", but he's definitely using facts.

Yet another positive indicator….the kind of thing that has to be trending up for an economy to rebound.

whiterock
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And now railways data is turning positive.

Leading indicators are positive.



Oldbear83
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D. C. Bear said:

Oldbear83 said:

Yet again, whiterock, you are selling a narrative, not supporting it with facts.

Walk down your street and ask your neighbors how the economy is doing.




He did use facts to support his "narrative." I don't know the extent to which they support his"narrative,", but he's definitely using facts.

Sorry, I meant relevant facts, like wages and job losses.

boognish_bear
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boognish_bear
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J.R.
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FLBear5630 said:

whiterock said:

FLBear5630 said:

whiterock said:

Doc Holliday said:

whiterock said:

Doc Holliday said:

whiterock said:



Eh I mean this is followed by a revised loss of 133,000 jobs in February.

Most of these workers are in healthcare and a huge portion of that just from workers on strike in healthcare.

Long term employment is a huge problem. The number of people unemployed for 27 weeks or more held at 1.8 million in March but has risen by 322,000 over the past year.

We have to be skeptical of arguments that romance the bad news and reject the good news.

The data is showing Trump economic policy is having its intended effect of reducing the trade deficit and building more domestic production capacity. That is not going to happen in a minute.

We just need to look at the data straight up.

Salaries/wages are terrible. I just don't see the overall trend ending well over the next couple of decades.

...or.....we are in a massive transformation of the business model. A supercarrier does not turn on a dime. Neither does the largest economy in the world. But if you put the right incentives into place, the turn will happen. Leaving globalism means that we will produce increasingly greater percentages of goods here. it takes time for those factories to be built.

The investment numbers of the trade deal alone are enough to ensure GDP growth. Employment will follow.

we are at the bottom.

But, it has to be more than Wall Street value. Wall Street valuations are fine, but it has to get down to wages and production. Right now, those areas are not responding.
I did not mention Wall street. Just noted GDP stats.
I can see your position from the CEO spot, I watch it at Companies all the time. The CEO and Gen Counsel (for example) are separate from the company, they have contracts directly with the Board and different retirement, bonuses and perks. From their perspective, it is great. From the worker perspective, not so much. Everything you say is true, IF it turns into real wages and real production.
Again, you're imputing your own class-conflict template here. I'm talking macro-economics.

EVs are the best example, they looked great to Wall Street, but not turning out that way. But, maybe Musk got Trump to do the Iran War to raise gas prices, which is what EVs need to perk up sales. Hmmm... Never thought about that. Biden-esque manipulation in a GOP sort of way... : )

Macroeconomic fact: when companies invest in building or expanding factories, employment rises - short and long term. The data is clear that companies are investing more in plant capacity here, to avoid supply chain exposure to tariffs. Nothing extraordinary about that other than so many people refuse to see the plain, textbook macroeconomic dynamics at play, working exactly as they should.

The biggest problem here is expectations. Trump was elected to make big changes. And he did. In record time. But it's only been 6 months since they were actually implemented. The transition is just now getting underway. It just takes time for these changes to bear fruit. The numbers will improve as we move forward.

No, he did not say that. Go back and check the record. He said he "When I win, I will immediately bring prices down," especially gas prices (drill, drill, drill), starting no wars. Higher fuel costs, cost of living the same, a 1.5T Defense Budget and constant military actions is NOT what he ran and won on. The only ones that seem better off are his family and his inner circle.

You keep going into the realities of macroeconomics, he didn't. Bessent didn't. You may feel it it is great and reasonable, so vote for him. But, don't tell the rest of us, that we have it wrong.

Trump and Macroeconomics. Haha. Like he is smart enough to know. Above is what Piggy straight up said he would do and you monkeys actually believe. Viva la Donnie! You have been permanately blinded by the bright Orange Sun-man
Jack Bauer
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boognish_bear said:



whiterock
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FLBear5630 said:

whiterock said:

FLBear5630 said:

whiterock said:

Doc Holliday said:

whiterock said:

Doc Holliday said:

whiterock said:



Eh I mean this is followed by a revised loss of 133,000 jobs in February.

Most of these workers are in healthcare and a huge portion of that just from workers on strike in healthcare.

Long term employment is a huge problem. The number of people unemployed for 27 weeks or more held at 1.8 million in March but has risen by 322,000 over the past year.

We have to be skeptical of arguments that romance the bad news and reject the good news.

The data is showing Trump economic policy is having its intended effect of reducing the trade deficit and building more domestic production capacity. That is not going to happen in a minute.

We just need to look at the data straight up.

Salaries/wages are terrible. I just don't see the overall trend ending well over the next couple of decades.

...or.....we are in a massive transformation of the business model. A supercarrier does not turn on a dime. Neither does the largest economy in the world. But if you put the right incentives into place, the turn will happen. Leaving globalism means that we will produce increasingly greater percentages of goods here. it takes time for those factories to be built.

The investment numbers of the trade deal alone are enough to ensure GDP growth. Employment will follow.

we are at the bottom.

But, it has to be more than Wall Street value. Wall Street valuations are fine, but it has to get down to wages and production. Right now, those areas are not responding.
I did not mention Wall street. Just noted GDP stats.
I can see your position from the CEO spot, I watch it at Companies all the time. The CEO and Gen Counsel (for example) are separate from the company, they have contracts directly with the Board and different retirement, bonuses and perks. From their perspective, it is great. From the worker perspective, not so much. Everything you say is true, IF it turns into real wages and real production.
Again, you're imputing your own class-conflict template here. I'm talking macro-economics.

EVs are the best example, they looked great to Wall Street, but not turning out that way. But, maybe Musk got Trump to do the Iran War to raise gas prices, which is what EVs need to perk up sales. Hmmm... Never thought about that. Biden-esque manipulation in a GOP sort of way... : )

Macroeconomic fact: when companies invest in building or expanding factories, employment rises - short and long term. The data is clear that companies are investing more in plant capacity here, to avoid supply chain exposure to tariffs. Nothing extraordinary about that other than so many people refuse to see the plain, textbook macroeconomic dynamics at play, working exactly as they should.

The biggest problem here is expectations. Trump was elected to make big changes. And he did. In record time. But it's only been 6 months since they were actually implemented. The transition is just now getting underway. It just takes time for these changes to bear fruit. The numbers will improve as we move forward.

No, he did not say that. Go back and check the record. He said he "When I win, I will immediately bring prices down," especially gas prices (drill, drill, drill), starting no wars. Higher fuel costs, cost of living the same, a 1.5T Defense Budget and constant military actions is NOT what he ran and won on. The only ones that seem better off are his family and his inner circle.
CPI increase in 2024 = 2.9%
CPI increase in 2025 = 2.7%
Gasoline prices in Jan 2026 were $3.01, down 8% over Jan 2025

The data does not support your narrativ
e.

You keep going into the realities of macroeconomics, he didn't. Bessent didn't. You may feel it it is great and reasonable, so vote for him. But, don't tell the rest of us, that we have it wrong.
Bessent has explained that his plan is to grow the economy faster than the debt, to use tariffs to promote reindustrialization. THAT is macroeconomics.

Yes, you do have it all wrong.

neverTrumpism does that to people
Doc Holliday
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whiterock said:

Doc Holliday said:

whiterock said:

Doc Holliday said:

whiterock said:



Eh I mean this is followed by a revised loss of 133,000 jobs in February.

Most of these workers are in healthcare and a huge portion of that just from workers on strike in healthcare.

Long term employment is a huge problem. The number of people unemployed for 27 weeks or more held at 1.8 million in March but has risen by 322,000 over the past year.

We have to be skeptical of arguments that romance the bad news and reject the good news.

The data is showing Trump economic policy is having its intended effect of reducing the trade deficit and building more domestic production capacity. That is not going to happen in a minute.

We just need to look at the data straight up.

Salaries/wages are terrible. I just don't see the overall trend ending well over the next couple of decades.

...or.....we are in a massive transformation of the business model. A supercarrier does not turn on a dime. Neither does the largest economy in the world. But if you put the right incentives into place, the turn will happen. Leaving globalism means that we will produce increasingly greater percentages of goods here. it takes time for those factories to be built.

The investment numbers of the trade deal alone are enough to ensure GDP growth. Employment will follow.

we are at the bottom.
Yeah I'd agree if leaving globalism was actually possible.

But midterms are going to democrats and the GOP has no intention of upholding commitment to undoing their globalist agenda. It's not like the GOP is onboard with Trump either. They're all mostly warhawks and neocons.

The investments you mentioned can still be sabotaged.
FLBear5630
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whiterock said:

FLBear5630 said:

whiterock said:

FLBear5630 said:

whiterock said:

Doc Holliday said:

whiterock said:

Doc Holliday said:

whiterock said:



Eh I mean this is followed by a revised loss of 133,000 jobs in February.

Most of these workers are in healthcare and a huge portion of that just from workers on strike in healthcare.

Long term employment is a huge problem. The number of people unemployed for 27 weeks or more held at 1.8 million in March but has risen by 322,000 over the past year.

We have to be skeptical of arguments that romance the bad news and reject the good news.

The data is showing Trump economic policy is having its intended effect of reducing the trade deficit and building more domestic production capacity. That is not going to happen in a minute.

We just need to look at the data straight up.

Salaries/wages are terrible. I just don't see the overall trend ending well over the next couple of decades.

...or.....we are in a massive transformation of the business model. A supercarrier does not turn on a dime. Neither does the largest economy in the world. But if you put the right incentives into place, the turn will happen. Leaving globalism means that we will produce increasingly greater percentages of goods here. it takes time for those factories to be built.

The investment numbers of the trade deal alone are enough to ensure GDP growth. Employment will follow.

we are at the bottom.

But, it has to be more than Wall Street value. Wall Street valuations are fine, but it has to get down to wages and production. Right now, those areas are not responding.
I did not mention Wall street. Just noted GDP stats.
I can see your position from the CEO spot, I watch it at Companies all the time. The CEO and Gen Counsel (for example) are separate from the company, they have contracts directly with the Board and different retirement, bonuses and perks. From their perspective, it is great. From the worker perspective, not so much. Everything you say is true, IF it turns into real wages and real production.
Again, you're imputing your own class-conflict template here. I'm talking macro-economics.

EVs are the best example, they looked great to Wall Street, but not turning out that way. But, maybe Musk got Trump to do the Iran War to raise gas prices, which is what EVs need to perk up sales. Hmmm... Never thought about that. Biden-esque manipulation in a GOP sort of way... : )

Macroeconomic fact: when companies invest in building or expanding factories, employment rises - short and long term. The data is clear that companies are investing more in plant capacity here, to avoid supply chain exposure to tariffs. Nothing extraordinary about that other than so many people refuse to see the plain, textbook macroeconomic dynamics at play, working exactly as they should.

The biggest problem here is expectations. Trump was elected to make big changes. And he did. In record time. But it's only been 6 months since they were actually implemented. The transition is just now getting underway. It just takes time for these changes to bear fruit. The numbers will improve as we move forward.

No, he did not say that. Go back and check the record. He said he "When I win, I will immediately bring prices down," especially gas prices (drill, drill, drill), starting no wars. Higher fuel costs, cost of living the same, a 1.5T Defense Budget and constant military actions is NOT what he ran and won on. The only ones that seem better off are his family and his inner circle.
CPI increase in 2024 = 2.9%
CPI increase in 2025 = 2.7%
Gasoline prices in Jan 2026 were $3.01, down 8% over Jan 2025

The data does not support your narrativ
e.

You keep going into the realities of macroeconomics, he didn't. Bessent didn't. You may feel it it is great and reasonable, so vote for him. But, don't tell the rest of us, that we have it wrong.
Bessent has explained that his plan is to grow the economy faster than the debt, to use tariffs to promote reindustrialization. THAT is macroeconomics.

Yes, you do have it all wrong.

neverTrumpism does that to people

You are looking at indicators in the short term and attributing any positives to drastic policy moves that have not had time to impact. Tariffs take time, shifts don't occur in 6 months and they definitely don't show in economic indicators. How is GDP?

Same with gas prices, have you checked gas prices? They are rising. You would argue that is a short term phenomenon due to Iraq. But for tariff's the impacts are instant, at the macro scale! Come one, you are cherry picking data. Trump-worship does that to people, I get it.

By the way, Powell has done a good job maintaining inflation Feb is looking to be down to 2.4 overall, it looks like his managing of the rates is the right move, doesn't it? Now, let's dig deeper...



This may be why the disconnect, not TDS, just higher prices on things people actually buy.
J.R.
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Jack Bauer said:

boognish_bear said:





that guys seems like a nice fella, but man, he suffers from a case of "The Generic Youth Minister"!
J.R.
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Oldbear83 said:

D. C. Bear said:

Oldbear83 said:

Yet again, whiterock, you are selling a narrative, not supporting it with facts.

Walk down your street and ask your neighbors how the economy is doing.




He did use facts to support his "narrative." I don't know the extent to which they support his"narrative,", but he's definitely using facts.

Sorry, I meant relevant facts, like wages and job losses.



spoken like a true Trumpian MAGA dude with NO job and on the Govt dole, but rail on the libs..... Ironic, no?
Oldbear83
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It's actually impressive how many posts you put up with absolutely no valid points or supporting evidence.


J.R.
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Oldbear83 said:

It's actually impressive how many posts you put up with absolutely no valid points or supporting evidence.



ok , what do you currently do for a living/job. Are you on any govt subsidies such as Medicare, Medicaid, govt pendion. Social security? Here is ur opportunity to set me straight
RD2WINAGNBEAR86
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Trump has done a great job closing the border. Yay eggs!!!!!

Time to work on the other stuff. Like that $18 trillion dollars that Trump says is coming.

Call it a tax, the people are outraged! Call it a tariff, the people get out their checkbooks and wave their American flags!!!
J.R.
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J.R. said:

Oldbear83 said:

It's actually impressive how many posts you put up with absolutely no valid points or supporting evidence.




ok , what do you currently do for a living/job. Are you on any govt subsidies such as Medicare, Medicaid, govt pendion. Social security? Here is ur opportunity to set me straight

looking for you to supply facts as requested. bring, Dr. Rocket Surgeon.
whiterock
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Doc Holliday said:

whiterock said:

Doc Holliday said:

whiterock said:

Doc Holliday said:

whiterock said:



Eh I mean this is followed by a revised loss of 133,000 jobs in February.

Most of these workers are in healthcare and a huge portion of that just from workers on strike in healthcare.

Long term employment is a huge problem. The number of people unemployed for 27 weeks or more held at 1.8 million in March but has risen by 322,000 over the past year.

We have to be skeptical of arguments that romance the bad news and reject the good news.

The data is showing Trump economic policy is having its intended effect of reducing the trade deficit and building more domestic production capacity. That is not going to happen in a minute.

We just need to look at the data straight up.

Salaries/wages are terrible. I just don't see the overall trend ending well over the next couple of decades.

...or.....we are in a massive transformation of the business model. A supercarrier does not turn on a dime. Neither does the largest economy in the world. But if you put the right incentives into place, the turn will happen. Leaving globalism means that we will produce increasingly greater percentages of goods here. it takes time for those factories to be built.

The investment numbers of the trade deal alone are enough to ensure GDP growth. Employment will follow.

we are at the bottom.

Yeah I'd agree if leaving globalism was actually possible.

But midterms are going to democrats and the GOP has no intention of upholding commitment to undoing their globalist agenda. It's not like the GOP is onboard with Trump either. They're all mostly warhawks and neocons.

The investments you mentioned can still be sabotaged.

we've already left globalism. Policy is no longer going to promote offshoring. Policy will attempt to grow our manufacturing base. That does not mean no trade will occur. It means we are going to pursue balanced trade instead of allowing the trade deficit to seek its own level. First phase is underway - building the infrastructure an energy generation required to power factories. Trade deal investment pledges will finance much of that.

We cannot tolerate China as a near peer competitor whose steel production capacity is 12x of ours.
We must close that gap.
What good does it do to maximize wealth if you cannot defend it?

National Security ALWAYS trumps (everything else).
whiterock
How long do you want to ignore this user?
FLBear5630 said:

whiterock said:

FLBear5630 said:

whiterock said:

FLBear5630 said:

whiterock said:

Doc Holliday said:

whiterock said:

Doc Holliday said:

whiterock said:



Eh I mean this is followed by a revised loss of 133,000 jobs in February.

Most of these workers are in healthcare and a huge portion of that just from workers on strike in healthcare.

Long term employment is a huge problem. The number of people unemployed for 27 weeks or more held at 1.8 million in March but has risen by 322,000 over the past year.

We have to be skeptical of arguments that romance the bad news and reject the good news.

The data is showing Trump economic policy is having its intended effect of reducing the trade deficit and building more domestic production capacity. That is not going to happen in a minute.

We just need to look at the data straight up.

Salaries/wages are terrible. I just don't see the overall trend ending well over the next couple of decades.

...or.....we are in a massive transformation of the business model. A supercarrier does not turn on a dime. Neither does the largest economy in the world. But if you put the right incentives into place, the turn will happen. Leaving globalism means that we will produce increasingly greater percentages of goods here. it takes time for those factories to be built.

The investment numbers of the trade deal alone are enough to ensure GDP growth. Employment will follow.

we are at the bottom.

But, it has to be more than Wall Street value. Wall Street valuations are fine, but it has to get down to wages and production. Right now, those areas are not responding.
I did not mention Wall street. Just noted GDP stats.
I can see your position from the CEO spot, I watch it at Companies all the time. The CEO and Gen Counsel (for example) are separate from the company, they have contracts directly with the Board and different retirement, bonuses and perks. From their perspective, it is great. From the worker perspective, not so much. Everything you say is true, IF it turns into real wages and real production.
Again, you're imputing your own class-conflict template here. I'm talking macro-economics.

EVs are the best example, they looked great to Wall Street, but not turning out that way. But, maybe Musk got Trump to do the Iran War to raise gas prices, which is what EVs need to perk up sales. Hmmm... Never thought about that. Biden-esque manipulation in a GOP sort of way... : )

Macroeconomic fact: when companies invest in building or expanding factories, employment rises - short and long term. The data is clear that companies are investing more in plant capacity here, to avoid supply chain exposure to tariffs. Nothing extraordinary about that other than so many people refuse to see the plain, textbook macroeconomic dynamics at play, working exactly as they should.

The biggest problem here is expectations. Trump was elected to make big changes. And he did. In record time. But it's only been 6 months since they were actually implemented. The transition is just now getting underway. It just takes time for these changes to bear fruit. The numbers will improve as we move forward.

No, he did not say that. Go back and check the record. He said he "When I win, I will immediately bring prices down," especially gas prices (drill, drill, drill), starting no wars. Higher fuel costs, cost of living the same, a 1.5T Defense Budget and constant military actions is NOT what he ran and won on. The only ones that seem better off are his family and his inner circle.
CPI increase in 2024 = 2.9%
CPI increase in 2025 = 2.7%
Gasoline prices in Jan 2026 were $3.01, down 8% over Jan 2025

The data does not support your narrativ
e.

You keep going into the realities of macroeconomics, he didn't. Bessent didn't. You may feel it it is great and reasonable, so vote for him. But, don't tell the rest of us, that we have it wrong.
Bessent has explained that his plan is to grow the economy faster than the debt, to use tariffs to promote reindustrialization. THAT is macroeconomics.

Yes, you do have it all wrong.

neverTrumpism does that to people

You are looking at indicators in the short term and attributing any positives to drastic policy moves that have not had time to impact.
LOL, cause-effect error. I'm pointing to indicators that the drastic policy moves are starting to happen.
Tariffs take time, shifts don't occur in 6 months and they definitely don't show in economic indicators.
Have said that many times. And have cited the data indicating they are starting to have the desired effect.
How is GDP?
2.2% for 2025, despite a long government shutdown that robbed as much as 2-percentage points off the total, a net decline in federal spending led by elimination of 300k federal jobs. Not a bad outcome at all given the calamity we faced a year ago.
https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2025-10/61823-Shutdown.pdf


Same with gas prices, have you checked gas prices? They are rising. You would argue that is a short term phenomenon due to Iraq.
How could one NOT make that argument? They were down (slightly) before the war and they've bumped approx $1/gal directly as a result of the war. And they will decline quickly when the war concludes. https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/commodities/oil-prices
But for tariff's the impacts are instant, at the macro scale!
Instant and ONE-TIME. Not like inflation which compounds. Notably, data I have posted here indicates that tariffs did not cause inflation, WHICH DECLINED in 2025 over 2024.
Come one, you are cherry picking data. Trump-worship does that to people, I get it.
I'm not cherry-picking. You, on the other hand, are making up kitchen sink fallacies as you go.

By the way, Powell has done a good job maintaining inflation Feb is looking to be down to 2.4 overall, it looks like his managing of the rates is the right move, doesn't it?
Careful there. Seems like you're saying that the Fed can keep tariffs from causing inflation. Tariffs, you see, don't cause inflation. increasing the supply of money faster than the supply of goods causes inflation.
Now, let's dig deeper...



This may be why the disconnect, not TDS, just higher prices on things people actually buy.


The disconnect is that you just don't understand economics very well.

C + I + G + T = GDP.

In the past, we have pursued growth by running government deficits (which increase "G" via debt) in order to stimulate "C," and overcome a negative on "T" (a trade deficit being a drag on GDP....GDP is Gross DOMESTIC Product.....). The new model is to reduce govt deficit, which will reduce G (a drag on GDP), while seeking to run trade surpluses (making "T" boost rather than drag GDP) and use massive increases in "I" (trade deal investment pledges) to (later on) drive "C."

It's a perfectly reasonable plan, and quite a bit more sustainable than the old model. It cannot fail in the short run. The investment monies are going to flow.....already are. So 2026 will look substantially better than 2025. and 2027 & 2028 are going to roar, on "I" alone. "C" will follow as the factories get built and payrolls fire up. It's a pretty simple plan. Macroeconomics are pretty simple. Gotta work kinda hard not to see it.
FLBear5630
How long do you want to ignore this user?
whiterock said:

FLBear5630 said:

whiterock said:

FLBear5630 said:

whiterock said:

FLBear5630 said:

whiterock said:

Doc Holliday said:

whiterock said:

Doc Holliday said:

whiterock said:



Eh I mean this is followed by a revised loss of 133,000 jobs in February.

Most of these workers are in healthcare and a huge portion of that just from workers on strike in healthcare.

Long term employment is a huge problem. The number of people unemployed for 27 weeks or more held at 1.8 million in March but has risen by 322,000 over the past year.

We have to be skeptical of arguments that romance the bad news and reject the good news.

The data is showing Trump economic policy is having its intended effect of reducing the trade deficit and building more domestic production capacity. That is not going to happen in a minute.

We just need to look at the data straight up.

Salaries/wages are terrible. I just don't see the overall trend ending well over the next couple of decades.

...or.....we are in a massive transformation of the business model. A supercarrier does not turn on a dime. Neither does the largest economy in the world. But if you put the right incentives into place, the turn will happen. Leaving globalism means that we will produce increasingly greater percentages of goods here. it takes time for those factories to be built.

The investment numbers of the trade deal alone are enough to ensure GDP growth. Employment will follow.

we are at the bottom.

But, it has to be more than Wall Street value. Wall Street valuations are fine, but it has to get down to wages and production. Right now, those areas are not responding.
I did not mention Wall street. Just noted GDP stats.
I can see your position from the CEO spot, I watch it at Companies all the time. The CEO and Gen Counsel (for example) are separate from the company, they have contracts directly with the Board and different retirement, bonuses and perks. From their perspective, it is great. From the worker perspective, not so much. Everything you say is true, IF it turns into real wages and real production.
Again, you're imputing your own class-conflict template here. I'm talking macro-economics.

EVs are the best example, they looked great to Wall Street, but not turning out that way. But, maybe Musk got Trump to do the Iran War to raise gas prices, which is what EVs need to perk up sales. Hmmm... Never thought about that. Biden-esque manipulation in a GOP sort of way... : )

Macroeconomic fact: when companies invest in building or expanding factories, employment rises - short and long term. The data is clear that companies are investing more in plant capacity here, to avoid supply chain exposure to tariffs. Nothing extraordinary about that other than so many people refuse to see the plain, textbook macroeconomic dynamics at play, working exactly as they should.

The biggest problem here is expectations. Trump was elected to make big changes. And he did. In record time. But it's only been 6 months since they were actually implemented. The transition is just now getting underway. It just takes time for these changes to bear fruit. The numbers will improve as we move forward.

No, he did not say that. Go back and check the record. He said he "When I win, I will immediately bring prices down," especially gas prices (drill, drill, drill), starting no wars. Higher fuel costs, cost of living the same, a 1.5T Defense Budget and constant military actions is NOT what he ran and won on. The only ones that seem better off are his family and his inner circle.
CPI increase in 2024 = 2.9%
CPI increase in 2025 = 2.7%
Gasoline prices in Jan 2026 were $3.01, down 8% over Jan 2025

The data does not support your narrativ
e.

You keep going into the realities of macroeconomics, he didn't. Bessent didn't. You may feel it it is great and reasonable, so vote for him. But, don't tell the rest of us, that we have it wrong.
Bessent has explained that his plan is to grow the economy faster than the debt, to use tariffs to promote reindustrialization. THAT is macroeconomics.

Yes, you do have it all wrong.

neverTrumpism does that to people

You are looking at indicators in the short term and attributing any positives to drastic policy moves that have not had time to impact.
LOL, cause-effect error. I'm pointing to indicators that the drastic policy moves are starting to happen.
Tariffs take time, shifts don't occur in 6 months and they definitely don't show in economic indicators.
Have said that many times. And have cited the data indicating they are starting to have the desired effect.
How is GDP?
2.2% for 2025, despite a long government shutdown that robbed as much as 2-percentage points off the total, a net decline in federal spending led by elimination of 300k federal jobs. Not a bad outcome at all given the calamity we faced a year ago.
https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2025-10/61823-Shutdown.pdf


Same with gas prices, have you checked gas prices? They are rising. You would argue that is a short term phenomenon due to Iraq.
How could one NOT make that argument? They were down (slightly) before the war and they've bumped approx $1/gal directly as a result of the war. And they will decline quickly when the war concludes. https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/commodities/oil-prices
But for tariff's the impacts are instant, at the macro scale!
Instant and ONE-TIME. Not like inflation which compounds. Notably, data I have posted here indicates that tariffs did not cause inflation, WHICH DECLINED in 2025 over 2024.
Come one, you are cherry picking data. Trump-worship does that to people, I get it.
I'm not cherry-picking. You, on the other hand, are making up kitchen sink fallacies as you go.

By the way, Powell has done a good job maintaining inflation Feb is looking to be down to 2.4 overall, it looks like his managing of the rates is the right move, doesn't it?
Careful there. Seems like you're saying that the Fed can keep tariffs from causing inflation. Tariffs, you see, don't cause inflation. increasing the supply of money faster than the supply of goods causes inflation.
Now, let's dig deeper...



This may be why the disconnect, not TDS, just higher prices on things people actually buy.


The disconnect is that you just don't understand economics very well.

C + I + G + T = GDP.

In the past, we have pursued growth by running government deficits (which increase "G" via debt) in order to stimulate "C," and overcome a negative on "T" (a trade deficit being a drag on GDP....GDP is Gross DOMESTIC Product.....). The new model is to reduce govt deficit, which will reduce G (a drag on GDP), while seeking to run trade surpluses (making "T" boost rather than drag GDP) and use massive increases in "I" (trade deal investment pledges) to (later on) drive "C."

It's a perfectly reasonable plan, and quite a bit more sustainable than the old model. It cannot fail in the short run. The investment monies are going to flow.....already are. So 2026 will look substantially better than 2025. and 2027 & 2028 are going to roar, on "I" alone. "C" will follow as the factories get built and payrolls fire up. It's a pretty simple plan. Macroeconomics are pretty simple. Gotta work kinda hard not to see it.

Geez, I just realized in it. You are living in a fantasy world.

There you go again. It is a perfectly reasonable play, yet all actions do not support your plan. Now 27 and 28 are going to roar. 6 months ago, it was 26 was going to roar, until we got here...

You know you say "TDS" is bad, but we question. You guys that follow Trump are worse because you don't... Nothing you say has actually happened. All he did was destroy, there is no creation here.

Reduce deficits? We are 15 months in and the deficit is growing. He has us in a War requiring emergency spending, not budgeted. AND the budget is not close to even balanced, nevermind operating at a surplus. Finally, even when supposed "new money" comes into play it is not dedicated to paying off the deficit.

You know, all your formulas and cute Macro talk mean nothing, if it doesn't really happen in real life. Look around, the world is on fire...
Doc Holliday
How long do you want to ignore this user?
whiterock said:

Doc Holliday said:

whiterock said:

Doc Holliday said:

whiterock said:

Doc Holliday said:

whiterock said:



Eh I mean this is followed by a revised loss of 133,000 jobs in February.

Most of these workers are in healthcare and a huge portion of that just from workers on strike in healthcare.

Long term employment is a huge problem. The number of people unemployed for 27 weeks or more held at 1.8 million in March but has risen by 322,000 over the past year.

We have to be skeptical of arguments that romance the bad news and reject the good news.

The data is showing Trump economic policy is having its intended effect of reducing the trade deficit and building more domestic production capacity. That is not going to happen in a minute.

We just need to look at the data straight up.

Salaries/wages are terrible. I just don't see the overall trend ending well over the next couple of decades.

...or.....we are in a massive transformation of the business model. A supercarrier does not turn on a dime. Neither does the largest economy in the world. But if you put the right incentives into place, the turn will happen. Leaving globalism means that we will produce increasingly greater percentages of goods here. it takes time for those factories to be built.

The investment numbers of the trade deal alone are enough to ensure GDP growth. Employment will follow.

we are at the bottom.

Yeah I'd agree if leaving globalism was actually possible.

But midterms are going to democrats and the GOP has no intention of upholding commitment to undoing their globalist agenda. It's not like the GOP is onboard with Trump either. They're all mostly warhawks and neocons.

The investments you mentioned can still be sabotaged.

we've already left globalism. Policy is no longer going to promote offshoring. Policy will attempt to grow our manufacturing base. That does not mean no trade will occur. It means we are going to pursue balanced trade instead of allowing the trade deficit to seek its own level. First phase is underway - building the infrastructure an energy generation required to power factories. Trade deal investment pledges will finance much of that.

We cannot tolerate China as a near peer competitor whose steel production capacity is 12x of ours.
We must close that gap.
What good does it do to maximize wealth if you cannot defend it?

National Security ALWAYS trumps (everything else).

I'm not arguing against the policy.

I'm claiming DC as a whole will not tolerate it. They will absolutely bring back globalism with a smile on their faces and to the detriment of the country.
 
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