FLBear5630 said:
D. C. Bear said:
J.R. said:
4th and Inches said:
J.R. said:
whiterock said:
J.R. said:
whiterock said:
whom is the Eric D. randofella always getting posted? Not familiar with his fine work. Sounding very Maga
good news for the country usually does sound MAGA.
oh, you mean the new AP poll that came out today that has Gold Jesus approval at. drummmb rooooll. 33%. Me not thinks that the majority of the country are behind Piggy by those numbers. Facts are your friend.Obviously you are an Outlier and what is wrong with you with this country. Viva la Donnie!
Rasmussen is at 44% approval for Trump today. They are the only ones that do a daily approval tracking and constantly ask large groups.
Facts are your friend. Stop using information from innacurate pollsters and use the info from a polling company that has a proven track record for accuracy for this type of data.
An AP poll is a fact, son. Just one that you and the rest of the Maggots don't like.
As President Thomas Dewey could tell you, polls aren't "facts" in the sense that they aren't necessarily an accurate reflection of opinion at all given time.
Even though one would expect Trump's ratings to be very low, it is a whole lot harder to get accurate polling today than in years past.
Has nothing to do with how he has acted or what he has done???? It has to be the polling. Consistent...
Ahhhhhhhhhhhh, media polls. Folks mostly ignore them, but the ones who pay attention almost always treat them like brands of food, praising their favorite while trashing ones they don't like.
As a starting point, D.C. is right that polling today is very different from past polling, and that's important to understand. Polling has basically four historical periods as follows:
Pre-1936: People understood the basics of polling; if you want to know what people are thinking, ask a sample. Basically, the bigger the sample, the more reliable it is. When polls did not match the actual results of an election, the thinking was that people just changed their mind.
1936: George Gallup stunned the media by predicting President Roosevelt would win re-election while the
Literary Digest polled five million people and predicted Alf Landon would win, Gallup employed the first demonstrated use of demographic weighting and proved the better prophet.
1936-2000: Polling using demographic weighting became the norm. Polling was done by media groups (
like news stations, but usually the poll was paid for by the media while performed by a professional group), colleges (
who usually used students to perform the polling, causing its own bias) , push polling by groups trying to create a mood favoring or opposing a candidate/position, and of course internal polling, which usually focused on key issues or target demographics. By the end of the 20th Century dozens of polls would be released, but not every poll was comparable. Some only produced two or three polls over the course of a campaign, while a few published regular polls throughout the campaign. Some polls focused on a relatively large pool of respondents, while others used smaller pools. Some polls also created a static pool of respondents, believing asking the same people over time would reflect changes in opinion, but by doing so also closing off the true scale of response.
2000-2016: As cell phone use became the norm, landline use plummeted, making standard Random Dialing methods obsolete (
people would normally answer landline phones, and the pollsters could be reasonably sure they were reaching homes rather than businesses or payphones, while cell numbers were not assigned by class and unknown numbers were commonly ignored, especially since someone with a cell phone might be occupied at the time). Pollsters found it harder and harder to get the necessary number of responses for their reports. Prior to 2000, the use of online polling was considered unreliable, but online responses began to be included in poll reports, and notably those online results were often
mixed with phone responses without the details being included in the reports. This led to online poll aggregators (
like 270toWin or 538..com) choosing to exclude or include polls in their reports according to the site owner's preferences, which also proved controversial in that site owners often published/rejected polls on personal reasons.
2016: The 2016 election was significant, because of a difference between poll results and the election results. While some polling groups later claimed the results were within industry norms, there was serious concern about the polls failing to recognize strong support in certain demographics for Donald Trump, and
Why 2016 election polls missed their mark | Pew Research Center Why the Polls Were Wrong | RAND Putting the Polling Miss of the 2016 Election in Perspective - The New York Times putting confidence in polls in doubt. Analysis revealed a trend of assumptions which polls promised to correct going forward.
2020-now: Polls have evolved to become focused on their consumer, so that reports released more than a month before an election tend to report what the target audience wants to hear. Polls will be far closer to actual results when released close to the election date itself, as only the election results are used to grade the accuracy of poll predictions.
Accordingly, an April poll is effectively useless except for fund-raising and cheerleading, unless you know the poll's methodology, respondent poll weighting, and history.