Recession

209,738 Views | 2403 Replies | Last: 6 hrs ago by Jack Bauer
boognish_bear
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Oldbear83
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You obsess on style and media, but not on substance.

Yet you attack me for pointing it out.

Not my problem, boyo.
RD2WINAGNBEAR86
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Oldbear83 said:

You obsess on style and media, but not on substance.

Yet you attack me for pointing it out.

Not my problem, boyo.

Too bad you don't hold your President to the same standards for results as your MLB baseball team.
Call it a tax, the people are outraged! Call it a tariff, the people get out their checkbooks and wave their American flags!!!
Oldbear83
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RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

Oldbear83 said:

You obsess on style and media, but not on substance.

Yet you attack me for pointing it out.

Not my problem, boyo.

Too bad you don't hold your President to the same standards for results as your MLB baseball team.

Borders secured, addressed foreign gang issues, took care of problems with Venezuela and in process with Iran (first POTUS in half a century to actually do something), just for starters.

Feel free to blush about missing that, son.

You just might want to stop getting your post cues from The View.
boognish_bear
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Feels like so many people make bad decisions on their car purchases

Waco1947
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D. C. Bear said:

Waco1947 said:

muddybrazos said:

FLBear5630 said:

You work for MAGA, right?

Are you asking me if I work for Maga? No, I am pro America and no longer identify with the party of Mark Levin, Laura Loomer and Lindsey Graham.

While it's understandable not to support any political party, Trump's attack on Iran is unconstitutional. He needs congressional authorization for his actions.


Trump's action in Iran is no different than Obama's action in Libya. So"Trump in Iran = Obama in Libya"
    Libya in 2011 was framed as a multilateral, NATO-backed intervention tied to a UN resolution during the Libyan Civil War. I am arguing that striking Iran risks broader war with a state actor in a way that Libya didn't. Lybia is a p0opulation 7.5 milliaion and Iran is 93.3 million. Iran's footprint on the world dtshe is much larger that Lybia
That said, supporters of Trump would flip this and say: both presidents acted without a formal declaration of war, so the criticism is selective.

I did criticize Obama at the timeincluding members of Congress from both partiesarguing he bypassed Congress. Others defended him. Same split happened under Trump. So the reality is: criticism wasn't one-sided in either case.


Waco1947
RD2WINAGNBEAR86
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boognish_bear said:

Feels like so many people make bad decisions on their car purchases



Agree with you, Sir! Car payments suck. Extended warranty payments suck! Both are wealth stealers. Buy a second hand quality vehicle with low mileage and pay it off as soon as possible. Drive it until the wheels fall off.

I have just always hated owing ANYBODY money.
Call it a tax, the people are outraged! Call it a tariff, the people get out their checkbooks and wave their American flags!!!
boognish_bear
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J.R.
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RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

boognish_bear said:

Feels like so many people make bad decisions on their car purchases



Agree with you, Sir! Car payments suck. Extended warranty payments suck! Both are wealth stealers. Buy a second hand quality vehicle with low mileage and pay it off as soon as possible. Drive it until the wheels fall off.

I have just always hated owing ANYBODY money.

I have never bought a new car. I buy certified pre-owned with about 10K mi. Drive it to 100kplus . rinse and repeat for my daily driver. It should also be said buy a car that you can afford. I have always subscribed to the notion that if you can't pay cash, you can't afford it. Beater time.
whiterock
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boognish_bear
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boognish_bear
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K economy

J.R.
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whiterock said:



whom is the Eric D. randofella always getting posted? Not familiar with his fine work. Sounding very Maga
whiterock
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J.R. said:

whiterock said:



whom is the Eric D. randofella always getting posted? Not familiar with his fine work. Sounding very Maga

good news for the country usually does sound MAGA.
J.R.
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whiterock said:

J.R. said:

whiterock said:



whom is the Eric D. randofella always getting posted? Not familiar with his fine work. Sounding very Maga

good news for the country usually does sound MAGA.

oh, you mean the new AP poll that came out today that has Gold Jesus approval at. drummmb rooooll. 33%. Me not thinks that the majority of the country are behind Piggy by those numbers. Facts are your friend.Obviously you are an Outlier and what is wrong with you with this country. Viva la Donnie!
whiterock
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boognish_bear said:



here's what's driving it:

https://www.theepochtimes.com/opinion/us-dollar-demand-soars-dedollarization-was-a-fabrication-of-the-bull-market-6005718

4th and Inches
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J.R. said:

whiterock said:

J.R. said:

whiterock said:



whom is the Eric D. randofella always getting posted? Not familiar with his fine work. Sounding very Maga

good news for the country usually does sound MAGA.

oh, you mean the new AP poll that came out today that has Gold Jesus approval at. drummmb rooooll. 33%. Me not thinks that the majority of the country are behind Piggy by those numbers. Facts are your friend.Obviously you are an Outlier and what is wrong with you with this country. Viva la Donnie!
Rasmussen is at 44% approval for Trump today. They are the only ones that do a daily approval tracking and constantly ask large groups.

Facts are your friend. Stop using information from innacurate pollsters and use the info from a polling company that has a proven track record for accuracy for this type of data.

J.R.
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4th and Inches said:

J.R. said:

whiterock said:

J.R. said:

whiterock said:



whom is the Eric D. randofella always getting posted? Not familiar with his fine work. Sounding very Maga

good news for the country usually does sound MAGA.

oh, you mean the new AP poll that came out today that has Gold Jesus approval at. drummmb rooooll. 33%. Me not thinks that the majority of the country are behind Piggy by those numbers. Facts are your friend.Obviously you are an Outlier and what is wrong with you with this country. Viva la Donnie!

Rasmussen is at 44% approval for Trump today. They are the only ones that do a daily approval tracking and constantly ask large groups.

Facts are your friend. Stop using information from innacurate pollsters and use the info from a polling company that has a proven track record for accuracy for this type of data.



An AP poll is a fact, son. Just one that you and the rest of the Maggots don't like.
4th and Inches
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J.R. said:

4th and Inches said:

J.R. said:

whiterock said:

J.R. said:

whiterock said:



whom is the Eric D. randofella always getting posted? Not familiar with his fine work. Sounding very Maga

good news for the country usually does sound MAGA.

oh, you mean the new AP poll that came out today that has Gold Jesus approval at. drummmb rooooll. 33%. Me not thinks that the majority of the country are behind Piggy by those numbers. Facts are your friend.Obviously you are an Outlier and what is wrong with you with this country. Viva la Donnie!

Rasmussen is at 44% approval for Trump today. They are the only ones that do a daily approval tracking and constantly ask large groups.

Facts are your friend. Stop using information from innacurate pollsters and use the info from a polling company that has a proven track record for accuracy for this type of data.



An AP poll is a fact, son. Just one that you and the rest of the Maggots don't like.
LOL, the only fact is they are as accurate as Trump when it comes to reporting the truth so sure.. keep posting them. Its funny!
whiterock
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J.R. said:

4th and Inches said:

J.R. said:

whiterock said:

J.R. said:

whiterock said:



whom is the Eric D. randofella always getting posted? Not familiar with his fine work. Sounding very Maga

good news for the country usually does sound MAGA.

oh, you mean the new AP poll that came out today that has Gold Jesus approval at. drummmb rooooll. 33%. Me not thinks that the majority of the country are behind Piggy by those numbers. Facts are your friend.Obviously you are an Outlier and what is wrong with you with this country. Viva la Donnie!

Rasmussen is at 44% approval for Trump today. They are the only ones that do a daily approval tracking and constantly ask large groups.

Facts are your friend. Stop using information from innacurate pollsters and use the info from a polling company that has a proven track record for accuracy for this type of data.



An AP poll is a fact, son. Just one that you and the rest of the Maggots don't like.

Rasmussen over time has usually had Trump in the 48-50 approval range. So 44 is meaningfully below the historical average. It is also at or above the approval numbers his predecessors posted at the same time in their second terms.

33% approval is quite the outlier.
D. C. Bear
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J.R. said:

4th and Inches said:

J.R. said:

whiterock said:

J.R. said:

whiterock said:



whom is the Eric D. randofella always getting posted? Not familiar with his fine work. Sounding very Maga

good news for the country usually does sound MAGA.

oh, you mean the new AP poll that came out today that has Gold Jesus approval at. drummmb rooooll. 33%. Me not thinks that the majority of the country are behind Piggy by those numbers. Facts are your friend.Obviously you are an Outlier and what is wrong with you with this country. Viva la Donnie!

Rasmussen is at 44% approval for Trump today. They are the only ones that do a daily approval tracking and constantly ask large groups.

Facts are your friend. Stop using information from innacurate pollsters and use the info from a polling company that has a proven track record for accuracy for this type of data.



An AP poll is a fact, son. Just one that you and the rest of the Maggots don't like.


As President Thomas Dewey could tell you, polls aren't "facts" in the sense that they aren't necessarily an accurate reflection of opinion at all given time.

Even though one would expect Trump's ratings to be very low, it is a whole lot harder to get accurate polling today than in years past.
FLBear5630
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D. C. Bear said:

J.R. said:

4th and Inches said:

J.R. said:

whiterock said:

J.R. said:

whiterock said:



whom is the Eric D. randofella always getting posted? Not familiar with his fine work. Sounding very Maga

good news for the country usually does sound MAGA.

oh, you mean the new AP poll that came out today that has Gold Jesus approval at. drummmb rooooll. 33%. Me not thinks that the majority of the country are behind Piggy by those numbers. Facts are your friend.Obviously you are an Outlier and what is wrong with you with this country. Viva la Donnie!

Rasmussen is at 44% approval for Trump today. They are the only ones that do a daily approval tracking and constantly ask large groups.

Facts are your friend. Stop using information from innacurate pollsters and use the info from a polling company that has a proven track record for accuracy for this type of data.



An AP poll is a fact, son. Just one that you and the rest of the Maggots don't like.


As President Thomas Dewey could tell you, polls aren't "facts" in the sense that they aren't necessarily an accurate reflection of opinion at all given time.

Even though one would expect Trump's ratings to be very low, it is a whole lot harder to get accurate polling today than in years past.

Has nothing to do with how he has acted or what he has done???? It has to be the polling. Consistent...
D. C. Bear
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FLBear5630 said:

D. C. Bear said:

J.R. said:

4th and Inches said:

J.R. said:

whiterock said:

J.R. said:

whiterock said:



whom is the Eric D. randofella always getting posted? Not familiar with his fine work. Sounding very Maga

good news for the country usually does sound MAGA.

oh, you mean the new AP poll that came out today that has Gold Jesus approval at. drummmb rooooll. 33%. Me not thinks that the majority of the country are behind Piggy by those numbers. Facts are your friend.Obviously you are an Outlier and what is wrong with you with this country. Viva la Donnie!

Rasmussen is at 44% approval for Trump today. They are the only ones that do a daily approval tracking and constantly ask large groups.

Facts are your friend. Stop using information from innacurate pollsters and use the info from a polling company that has a proven track record for accuracy for this type of data.



An AP poll is a fact, son. Just one that you and the rest of the Maggots don't like.


As President Thomas Dewey could tell you, polls aren't "facts" in the sense that they aren't necessarily an accurate reflection of opinion at all given time.

Even though one would expect Trump's ratings to be very low, it is a whole lot harder to get accurate polling today than in years past.

Has nothing to do with how he has acted or what he has done???? It has to be the polling. Consistent...


Reading comprehension not your strong point?
FLBear5630
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D. C. Bear said:

FLBear5630 said:

D. C. Bear said:

J.R. said:

4th and Inches said:

J.R. said:

whiterock said:

J.R. said:

whiterock said:



whom is the Eric D. randofella always getting posted? Not familiar with his fine work. Sounding very Maga

good news for the country usually does sound MAGA.

oh, you mean the new AP poll that came out today that has Gold Jesus approval at. drummmb rooooll. 33%. Me not thinks that the majority of the country are behind Piggy by those numbers. Facts are your friend.Obviously you are an Outlier and what is wrong with you with this country. Viva la Donnie!

Rasmussen is at 44% approval for Trump today. They are the only ones that do a daily approval tracking and constantly ask large groups.

Facts are your friend. Stop using information from innacurate pollsters and use the info from a polling company that has a proven track record for accuracy for this type of data.



An AP poll is a fact, son. Just one that you and the rest of the Maggots don't like.


As President Thomas Dewey could tell you, polls aren't "facts" in the sense that they aren't necessarily an accurate reflection of opinion at all given time.

Even though one would expect Trump's ratings to be very low, it is a whole lot harder to get accurate polling today than in years past.

Has nothing to do with how he has acted or what he has done???? It has to be the polling. Consistent...


Reading comprehension not your strong point?

Read this sentence and tell me I have a reading comprehension issue???


"Even though one would expect Trump's ratings to be very low, it is a whole lot harder to get accurate polling today than in years past."

This is typical, your thought as posted indicates that it is a polling error, the qualifier on the end changes the context. Typical, DC BS.


Oldbear83
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FLBear5630 said:

D. C. Bear said:

J.R. said:

4th and Inches said:

J.R. said:

whiterock said:

J.R. said:

whiterock said:



whom is the Eric D. randofella always getting posted? Not familiar with his fine work. Sounding very Maga

good news for the country usually does sound MAGA.

oh, you mean the new AP poll that came out today that has Gold Jesus approval at. drummmb rooooll. 33%. Me not thinks that the majority of the country are behind Piggy by those numbers. Facts are your friend.Obviously you are an Outlier and what is wrong with you with this country. Viva la Donnie!

Rasmussen is at 44% approval for Trump today. They are the only ones that do a daily approval tracking and constantly ask large groups.

Facts are your friend. Stop using information from innacurate pollsters and use the info from a polling company that has a proven track record for accuracy for this type of data.



An AP poll is a fact, son. Just one that you and the rest of the Maggots don't like.


As President Thomas Dewey could tell you, polls aren't "facts" in the sense that they aren't necessarily an accurate reflection of opinion at all given time.

Even though one would expect Trump's ratings to be very low, it is a whole lot harder to get accurate polling today than in years past.

Has nothing to do with how he has acted or what he has done???? It has to be the polling. Consistent...

Ahhhhhhhhhhhh, media polls. Folks mostly ignore them, but the ones who pay attention almost always treat them like brands of food, praising their favorite while trashing ones they don't like.

As a starting point, D.C. is right that polling today is very different from past polling, and that's important to understand. Polling has basically four historical periods as follows:

Pre-1936: People understood the basics of polling; if you want to know what people are thinking, ask a sample. Basically, the bigger the sample, the more reliable it is. When polls did not match the actual results of an election, the thinking was that people just changed their mind.

1936: George Gallup stunned the media by predicting President Roosevelt would win re-election while the Literary Digest polled five million people and predicted Alf Landon would win, Gallup employed the first demonstrated use of demographic weighting and proved the better prophet.

1936-2000: Polling using demographic weighting became the norm. Polling was done by media groups (like news stations, but usually the poll was paid for by the media while performed by a professional group), colleges (who usually used students to perform the polling, causing its own bias) , push polling by groups trying to create a mood favoring or opposing a candidate/position, and of course internal polling, which usually focused on key issues or target demographics. By the end of the 20th Century dozens of polls would be released, but not every poll was comparable. Some only produced two or three polls over the course of a campaign, while a few published regular polls throughout the campaign. Some polls focused on a relatively large pool of respondents, while others used smaller pools. Some polls also created a static pool of respondents, believing asking the same people over time would reflect changes in opinion, but by doing so also closing off the true scale of response.

2000-2016: As cell phone use became the norm, landline use plummeted, making standard Random Dialing methods obsolete (people would normally answer landline phones, and the pollsters could be reasonably sure they were reaching homes rather than businesses or payphones, while cell numbers were not assigned by class and unknown numbers were commonly ignored, especially since someone with a cell phone might be occupied at the time). Pollsters found it harder and harder to get the necessary number of responses for their reports. Prior to 2000, the use of online polling was considered unreliable, but online responses began to be included in poll reports, and notably those online results were often mixed with phone responses without the details being included in the reports. This led to online poll aggregators (like 270toWin or 538..com) choosing to exclude or include polls in their reports according to the site owner's preferences, which also proved controversial in that site owners often published/rejected polls on personal reasons.

2016: The 2016 election was significant, because of a difference between poll results and the election results. While some polling groups later claimed the results were within industry norms, there was serious concern about the polls failing to recognize strong support in certain demographics for Donald Trump, and

Why 2016 election polls missed their mark | Pew Research Center

Why the Polls Were Wrong | RAND

Putting the Polling Miss of the 2016 Election in Perspective - The New York Times

putting confidence in polls in doubt. Analysis revealed a trend of assumptions which polls promised to correct going forward.

2020-now: Polls have evolved to become focused on their consumer, so that reports released more than a month before an election tend to report what the target audience wants to hear. Polls will be far closer to actual results when released close to the election date itself, as only the election results are used to grade the accuracy of poll predictions.

Accordingly, an April poll is effectively useless except for fund-raising and cheerleading, unless you know the poll's methodology, respondent poll weighting, and history.
FLBear5630
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Question.

So, you think the last year has been perfectly normal and Trump has come across as a responsible, respected Chief Executive. The guy you want at the helm when things go bad or to explain what is happening.
Oldbear83
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FLBear5630 said:

Question.

So, you think the last year has been perfectly normal and Trump has come across as a responsible, respected Chief Executive. The guy you want at the helm when things go bad or to explain what is happening.

There are no 'normal' years, if you pay attention.

As for Trump, he is addressing the crises he sees before him. He is the duly-elected President, has the support of his cabinet, and has focused on keeping his campaign promises.

Regarding Iran, Trump is using a variety of methods to address the crisis. He has not used every possible weapon, nor every possible tactic, but is seeking a resolution that avoids horrific loss of life or a garrison commitment.

And by the way, you can say whatever you want, but your freedom of speech in no way means you know more than he does about what's going on, or that he loses his authority just because some of his decisions bother you.
FLBear5630
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I am talking to you on a college message board, not exactly challenging the sitting Government.

Also, you don't have to have a top secret sci clearance to know how he is doing **** is not good.
Oldbear83
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FLBear5630 said:

I am talking to you on a college message board, not exactly challenging the sitting Government.

Also, you don't have to have a top secret sci clearance to know how he is doing **** is not good.

When did you decide to live out the rest of your years as a pissed-off teenager?

FLBear5630
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Well Trump is an impetuous child and you a grumpy old man, pissed off teenager was all that was available
Oldbear83
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FLBear5630 said:

Well Trump is an impetuous child and you a grumpy old man, pissed off teenager was all that was available

At least you acknowledge it.

And keep those kids off my lawn.
whiterock
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FLBear5630 said:

D. C. Bear said:

FLBear5630 said:

D. C. Bear said:

J.R. said:

4th and Inches said:

J.R. said:

whiterock said:

J.R. said:

whiterock said:



whom is the Eric D. randofella always getting posted? Not familiar with his fine work. Sounding very Maga

good news for the country usually does sound MAGA.

oh, you mean the new AP poll that came out today that has Gold Jesus approval at. drummmb rooooll. 33%. Me not thinks that the majority of the country are behind Piggy by those numbers. Facts are your friend.Obviously you are an Outlier and what is wrong with you with this country. Viva la Donnie!

Rasmussen is at 44% approval for Trump today. They are the only ones that do a daily approval tracking and constantly ask large groups.

Facts are your friend. Stop using information from innacurate pollsters and use the info from a polling company that has a proven track record for accuracy for this type of data.



An AP poll is a fact, son. Just one that you and the rest of the Maggots don't like.


As President Thomas Dewey could tell you, polls aren't "facts" in the sense that they aren't necessarily an accurate reflection of opinion at all given time.

Even though one would expect Trump's ratings to be very low, it is a whole lot harder to get accurate polling today than in years past.

Has nothing to do with how he has acted or what he has done???? It has to be the polling. Consistent...


Reading comprehension not your strong point?

Read this sentence and tell me I have a reading comprehension issue???


"Even though one would expect Trump's ratings to be very low, it is a whole lot harder to get accurate polling today than in years past."

This is typical, your thought as posted indicates that it is a polling error, the qualifier on the end changes the context. Typical, DC BS.




polling units have to poll the people who are going to vote. This far out from an election, it's impossible to know that. they have to basically use informed guesswork. So polling as a rule, on both sides, can be wildly off. The closer you get to the election, the more accurate the poling tends to get, because the pollsters have an increasingly better idea what turnout is going to be.

or you can look to the polling units that have proven reliable the last several cycles. And they show Trump in the low-mid 40's, ahead of where his recent successors are.
FLBear5630
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AP is pretty benign. AP, Reuters are pretty much news-centric. Bloomberg is data-centric. Those three are the only mainstream i would listen to.

Believe it or not, Bloomberg has been pretty balanced on Trump, defending his decisions. They are business data oriented, so money talks.

Their pills have jim at historic lows. Polls dont matter, elections do. 6 months we see.
whiterock
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FLBear5630 said:

AP is pretty benign. AP, Reuters are pretty much news-centric. Bloomberg is data-centric. Those three are the only mainstream i would listen to.

Believe it or not, Bloomberg has been pretty balanced on Trump, defending his decisions. They are business data oriented, so money talks.

Their pills have jim at historic lows. Polls dont matter, elections do. 6 months we see.

all of those polling units have been 5pts or so left of actual outcome in the last several elections.

News units don't poll to determine status. They poll to make news.......
FLBear5630
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whiterock said:

FLBear5630 said:

AP is pretty benign. AP, Reuters are pretty much news-centric. Bloomberg is data-centric. Those three are the only mainstream i would listen to.

Believe it or not, Bloomberg has been pretty balanced on Trump, defending his decisions. They are business data oriented, so money talks.

Their pills have jim at historic lows. Polls dont matter, elections do. 6 months we see.

all of those polling units have been 5pts or so left of actual outcome in the last several elections.

News units don't poll to determine status. They poll to make news.......

I agree with the opinion piece ones like CNN, FOX, BREIDBART, NewsMax, MSNBC. 100%. The are editorials, not news.

Bloomberg is data centric, although they do run some pieces. I would suspect left leaning. But, they have been complementary to Trump and defended several of his actions. So I give them the benefit of the doubt.

AP and Reuters are as new oriented as you get in today's world. Maybe C-SPAN, let's you see and make a determination. I use those.

5 points, left or right in an National election is not bad. Nobody hits it dead on. Usually if within margin of error, you are doing pretty good.

 
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