Can someone please check on Archduke Franz Ferdinand? I hear he is making a comeback.
Ukraine invaded by Putin
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Last: 1 yr ago by HuMcK
I don't see how this can end with anything other than a negotiated peace.
The Kremlin simply can not conquer all of the Ukraine...or even if they could take it they can not hold it forever.
And the Ukrainian government can not dislodge Russia from Crimea or the Donbass.
Russia will probably also want Kherson Oblast and Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
Kherson is where the Crimea canal starts...and before they took it and turned the water back on the Crimea was having a massive drought and drinking water had to be imported.
They have taken all of Kherson and most of Zaporizhzhia.
End result of such a negotiated peace is that Ukraine loses a lot of land...but keeps its sovereignty. And since it is losing lots of ethnic russian areas it might end up a more unified nation in the long haul.
The Kremlin simply can not conquer all of the Ukraine...or even if they could take it they can not hold it forever.
And the Ukrainian government can not dislodge Russia from Crimea or the Donbass.
Russia will probably also want Kherson Oblast and Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
Kherson is where the Crimea canal starts...and before they took it and turned the water back on the Crimea was having a massive drought and drinking water had to be imported.
They have taken all of Kherson and most of Zaporizhzhia.
End result of such a negotiated peace is that Ukraine loses a lot of land...but keeps its sovereignty. And since it is losing lots of ethnic russian areas it might end up a more unified nation in the long haul.
Choosing not to results from the Ukranians fighting. They don't have to conquer russia, they have to inflict enough pain so the russians leave.nein51 said:D. C. Bear said:nein51 said:
Ukraine is fighting a fight they cannot win. I admire their heart and their fight. They are doomed to lose however. It's simply a matter of time.
That really depends on a lot of different factors.
It really doesn't. They don't have the manpower or weaponry (since this forum refuses the correct word) to win. The best outcome they can hope for is one of Afghanistan where it goes on forever until Russia gets bored. You're talking 43m vs 145m people. One of those being led by a person who simply doesn't care about loss of life. Their fight is admirable but, ultimately, Russia will win unless they simply choose not to.
The Russian army has no reason to leave Kherson oblast, Crimea, or the Donbass.Booray said:Choosing not to results from the Ukranians fighting. They don't have to conquer russia, they have to inflict enough pain so the russians leave.nein51 said:D. C. Bear said:nein51 said:
Ukraine is fighting a fight they cannot win. I admire their heart and their fight. They are doomed to lose however. It's simply a matter of time.
That really depends on a lot of different factors.
It really doesn't. They don't have the manpower or weaponry (since this forum refuses the correct word) to win. The best outcome they can hope for is one of Afghanistan where it goes on forever until Russia gets bored. You're talking 43m vs 145m people. One of those being led by a person who simply doesn't care about loss of life. Their fight is admirable but, ultimately, Russia will win unless they simply choose not to.
Those areas are under their control and it seems the local ethnic russians want them there.
Obviously the Ukrainians can make life hard on the Russian army in areas like Kyiv where the local population does not want them.
The city of Kherson has plenty of protests and surgical strikes happening there. And now the city of Kherson is becoming contested again.
https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-24-22/h_5e4f6814eb523d9d785fba3e0f579786
https://nypost.com/2022/03/25/ukrainian-troops-take-back-parts-of-kherson-from-russian-forces-us/
https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-24-22/h_5e4f6814eb523d9d785fba3e0f579786
https://nypost.com/2022/03/25/ukrainian-troops-take-back-parts-of-kherson-from-russian-forces-us/
If Russia wants to further escalate, it will find an excuse to do so regardless of some old planes. Let Ukraine have the planes to defend themselves. Be brave like them.
— Kaisa (@Kaisa92428722) March 9, 2022
jupiter said:If Russia wants to further escalate, it will find an excuse to do so regardless of some old planes. Let Ukraine have the planes to defend themselves. Be brave like them.
— Kaisa (@Kaisa92428722) March 9, 2022
I do agree Russia will escalate based on their needs, no matter what we do. The only 2 things I can see Putin reacted to from us is a direct invasion of Russia and going after him.
You know who would really hate it if America opened its doors to thousands of the best and brightest Russians? Vladimir Putin.https://t.co/PhkwGISxYK
— reason (@reason) March 30, 2022
jupiter said:You know who would really hate it if America opened its doors to thousands of the best and brightest Russians? Vladimir Putin.https://t.co/PhkwGISxYK
— reason (@reason) March 30, 2022
Culture matters. America needs to sort out our own cultural dilemmas right now before we import millions of people who will be dragging their own along.
I guess we will trust Russia to vouch for their background checks?
Interesting thing is those coming from dictatorial societies defend freedom the hardest. Talk to the Cubans in Florida or the Venezuelans they will fight rather than have that happen to them again. Based on the number of Dems that seem willing, if not eager, to embrace Socialism and Government directed lives we need an infusion of some people wanting freedom. I agree with Reagan's view that if given the choice, people will choose freedom. We need more of those people in the US. Does the GOP has a Ronnie to run? That is what we need. This will go over well...Canon said:jupiter said:You know who would really hate it if America opened its doors to thousands of the best and brightest Russians? Vladimir Putin.https://t.co/PhkwGISxYK
— reason (@reason) March 30, 2022
Culture matters. America needs to sort out our own cultural dilemmas right now before we import millions of people who will be dragging their own along.
[ol]
Wow. The Ukrainians appear to have carried out a strike on oil supplies in Russian territory. https://t.co/lNuXB76ogP
— Stephen Gutowski (@StephenGutowski) April 1, 2022
HuMcK said:Wow. The Ukrainians appear to have carried out a strike on oil supplies in Russian territory. https://t.co/lNuXB76ogP
— Stephen Gutowski (@StephenGutowski) April 1, 2022
You love Russian false flag operations, don't you.
Even for you that is a very strange response. Conversely, you sound a little sullen to see Russia get slapped, why is that tovarisch?
HuMcK said:
Even for you that is a very strange response. Conversely, you sound a little sullen to see Russia get slapped, why is that tovarisch?
You championed the Russian led operation coordinated between Russians and the DNC. Now you want to give Russia reason to attack Ukraine. Do you have a summer house in Moscow?
Russia doesn't need "reason to attack Ukraine." They already did attack Ukraine. If Ukraine strikes back at a little Russian infrastructure, Putin should have thought of that before he decided to invade another country.Canon said:HuMcK said:
Even for you that is a very strange response. Conversely, you sound a little sullen to see Russia get slapped, why is that tovarisch?
You championed the Russian led operation coordinated between Russians and the DNC. Now you want to give Russia reason to attack Ukraine. Do you have a summer house in Moscow?
TL;DR
World wide food inflation or worse - shortages - are coming. Long article I just posted a few items below.
The Return of the Third Horseman
The Ukraine War is having dozens - hundreds - of follow-on impacts across the world, with the most dramatic about to be felt in the world of food. Whatever you think will happen, the reality is almost certainly worse.
In 2010, dry weather across Western Siberia prompted concerns about the Russian wheat crop. In preparation for a poor harvest, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered temporary export limitations for wheat, Russia's primary agricultural product. Within weeks global wheat prices had doubled; Prices tripled in Russia's primary export market, the Middle East. Those increases contributed to the series of protests, riots, coups, revolutions and wars we now know collectively as the Arab Spring and the Syrian Civil War.
What's happening this time around is far, far worse.
... Ukraine isn't simply disappearing from the ranks of the world's major global exporters, this year and for years to come it will be an importer.
There's a much bigger problem cresting the horizon.
The first is phosphate
... Beijing has banned the export of phosphate, the fertilizer type most useful for rice paddies. Until that occurred, China was the world's largest phosphate source. The export ban is certain to last until Chinese agriculture can be supported by at least one other pillar. That won't be in 2022. Or 2023.
The second is natural gas
... we transform natural gas into nitrogen-type fertilizers. As of February, nitrogen fertilizer prices had already significantly increased compared to a year earlier.
The third and final type of fertilizer - potash -
…straightforward. Russia plus Belarus (and we need to think of the two as the same country since Russia effectively annexed Belarus in the war's first week) is the world's largest potash exporter, providing roughly 40% of global totals. If that weren't enough, Russia isn't only the world's biggest source of the inputs for fertilizers, it is also the world's biggest supplier of the actual finished product as well.
Farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia have little choice but to use less fertilizer. Lower yields will follow. Russian fertilizer has been part of the constellation of factors that have enabled Brazil to become an agricultural superpower. That ends now. Even in the rich agricultural powers - Australia, France, the United States - any money that farmers must expend upon pricier fertilizers is capital that cannot chase other needs. See Bloomberg: Corn Is Out, Soy Is In on U.S. Farms Rocked by Soaring Costs
Russia's invasion of Ukraine is reacquainting the world with the First Horseman. That's no fun for anyone. But it is the return of the Third Horseman that gives me nightmares.
World wide food inflation or worse - shortages - are coming. Long article I just posted a few items below.
The Return of the Third Horseman
The Ukraine War is having dozens - hundreds - of follow-on impacts across the world, with the most dramatic about to be felt in the world of food. Whatever you think will happen, the reality is almost certainly worse.
In 2010, dry weather across Western Siberia prompted concerns about the Russian wheat crop. In preparation for a poor harvest, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered temporary export limitations for wheat, Russia's primary agricultural product. Within weeks global wheat prices had doubled; Prices tripled in Russia's primary export market, the Middle East. Those increases contributed to the series of protests, riots, coups, revolutions and wars we now know collectively as the Arab Spring and the Syrian Civil War.
What's happening this time around is far, far worse.
... Ukraine isn't simply disappearing from the ranks of the world's major global exporters, this year and for years to come it will be an importer.
There's a much bigger problem cresting the horizon.
The first is phosphate
... Beijing has banned the export of phosphate, the fertilizer type most useful for rice paddies. Until that occurred, China was the world's largest phosphate source. The export ban is certain to last until Chinese agriculture can be supported by at least one other pillar. That won't be in 2022. Or 2023.
The second is natural gas
... we transform natural gas into nitrogen-type fertilizers. As of February, nitrogen fertilizer prices had already significantly increased compared to a year earlier.
The third and final type of fertilizer - potash -
…straightforward. Russia plus Belarus (and we need to think of the two as the same country since Russia effectively annexed Belarus in the war's first week) is the world's largest potash exporter, providing roughly 40% of global totals. If that weren't enough, Russia isn't only the world's biggest source of the inputs for fertilizers, it is also the world's biggest supplier of the actual finished product as well.
Farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia have little choice but to use less fertilizer. Lower yields will follow. Russian fertilizer has been part of the constellation of factors that have enabled Brazil to become an agricultural superpower. That ends now. Even in the rich agricultural powers - Australia, France, the United States - any money that farmers must expend upon pricier fertilizers is capital that cannot chase other needs. See Bloomberg: Corn Is Out, Soy Is In on U.S. Farms Rocked by Soaring Costs
Russia's invasion of Ukraine is reacquainting the world with the First Horseman. That's no fun for anyone. But it is the return of the Third Horseman that gives me nightmares.
Your analysis does not take into account other producers stepping to fill the void. The US has the resources to significantly fill those gaps, if allowed. Brazil and South America have the resources, if the private sector is allowed to pursue them. It may have been easier to rely on Russia for those products, but none are exclusive to Russia.Jacques Strap said:
TL;DR
World wide food inflation or worse - shortages - are coming. Long article I just posted a few items below.
The Return of the Third Horseman
The Ukraine War is having dozens - hundreds - of follow-on impacts across the world, with the most dramatic about to be felt in the world of food. Whatever you think will happen, the reality is almost certainly worse.
In 2010, dry weather across Western Siberia prompted concerns about the Russian wheat crop. In preparation for a poor harvest, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered temporary export limitations for wheat, Russia's primary agricultural product. Within weeks global wheat prices had doubled; Prices tripled in Russia's primary export market, the Middle East. Those increases contributed to the series of protests, riots, coups, revolutions and wars we now know collectively as the Arab Spring and the Syrian Civil War.
What's happening this time around is far, far worse.
... Ukraine isn't simply disappearing from the ranks of the world's major global exporters, this year and for years to come it will be an importer.
There's a much bigger problem cresting the horizon.
The first is phosphate
... Beijing has banned the export of phosphate, the fertilizer type most useful for rice paddies. Until that occurred, China was the world's largest phosphate source. The export ban is certain to last until Chinese agriculture can be supported by at least one other pillar. That won't be in 2022. Or 2023.
The second is natural gas
... we transform natural gas into nitrogen-type fertilizers. As of February, nitrogen fertilizer prices had already significantly increased compared to a year earlier.
The third and final type of fertilizer - potash -
…straightforward. Russia plus Belarus (and we need to think of the two as the same country since Russia effectively annexed Belarus in the war's first week) is the world's largest potash exporter, providing roughly 40% of global totals. If that weren't enough, Russia isn't only the world's biggest source of the inputs for fertilizers, it is also the world's biggest supplier of the actual finished product as well.
Farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia have little choice but to use less fertilizer. Lower yields will follow. Russian fertilizer has been part of the constellation of factors that have enabled Brazil to become an agricultural superpower. That ends now. Even in the rich agricultural powers - Australia, France, the United States - any money that farmers must expend upon pricier fertilizers is capital that cannot chase other needs. See Bloomberg: Corn Is Out, Soy Is In on U.S. Farms Rocked by Soaring Costs
Russia's invasion of Ukraine is reacquainting the world with the First Horseman. That's no fun for anyone. But it is the return of the Third Horseman that gives me nightmares.
For example, Russia and Canada are very similar geographically and resource wealth. Actually, Investopedia has Canada #3 in resource wealth and Russia #5. Motley Fool says the same thing, Canada is the Western Hemisphere's Russia in terms of resources.
I know I am looking at investing sources, but that is where the capital is going to come from to fill the void if Russia keeps going down this path. It may be tight or more expensive in the short term, but these are not insurmountable challenges and actually may be looked at as opportunities for developing nations.
3. Canada
The third country on the list is Canada. The vast country has an estimated $33.2 trillion worth of commodities and the third-largest oil deposits after Venezuela and Saudi Arabia. The commodities that the country owns include industrial minerals, such as gypsum, limestone, rock salt, and potash, as well as energy minerals, such as coal and uranium. Metals in Canada include copper, lead, nickel, and zinc, and precious metals like gold, platinum, and silver. Canada is the leading supplier of natural gas and phosphate and is the third-largest exporter of timber.1
5. Russia
Russia's total estimated natural resources are worth $75 trillion. The country has the biggest mining industry in the world producing mineral fuels, industrial minerals, and metals. Russia is a leading producer of aluminum, arsenic, cement, copper, magnesium metal, and compounds such as nitrogen, palladium, silicon, and vanadium. The nation is the second-largest exporter of rare earth minerals.1
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets-economy/090516/10-countries-most-natural-resources.asp
https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/03/29/canadas-vast-resources-have-made-it-the-worlds-rus/
D. C. Bear said:Russia doesn't need "reason to attack Ukraine." They already did attack Ukraine. If Ukraine strikes back at a little Russian infrastructure, Putin should have thought of that before he decided to invade another country.Canon said:HuMcK said:
Even for you that is a very strange response. Conversely, you sound a little sullen to see Russia get slapped, why is that tovarisch?
You championed the Russian led operation coordinated between Russians and the DNC. Now you want to give Russia reason to attack Ukraine. Do you have a summer house in Moscow?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10678803/Kremlin-accused-FAKING-Ukrainian-missile-attack-Belgorod-helicopter-attack-fuel-depot.html
Russia withdrawal begins, or only Kyiv?
KOKQB70 said:
Russia withdrawal begins, or only Kyiv?
Only Kyiv. Focus being turned towards the east and southeast.
Bear8084 said:KOKQB70 said:
Russia withdrawal begins, or only Kyiv?
Only Kyiv. Focus being turned towards the east and southeast.
Bet they end up taking South, like they did in Crimea. This whole attack on Kiev is starting to.look.like a warning to me.
RMF5630 said:Bear8084 said:KOKQB70 said:
Russia withdrawal begins, or only Kyiv?
Only Kyiv. Focus being turned towards the east and southeast.
Bet they end up taking South, like they did in Crimea. This whole attack on Kiev is starting to.look.like a warning to me.
It was not a warning.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-3
Current ground report from ISW.
Bear8084 said:RMF5630 said:Bear8084 said:KOKQB70 said:
Russia withdrawal begins, or only Kyiv?
Only Kyiv. Focus being turned towards the east and southeast.
Bet they end up taking South, like they did in Crimea. This whole attack on Kiev is starting to.look.like a warning to me.
It was not a warning.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-3
Current ground report from ISW.
Thank you, nice report. From that analysis, you are right.
Russia cannot win this war. They are inept and so is Putin. I am not taking sides. But the Russian military is pathetic and does not give Putin the truth [ bad news] and the inability to deliver bad information will destroy any organization. Watched the same phenomenon almost put a Fortune 100 into reorganization.
https://t.co/PUOLz2BQs4
Putin will go down in history as the Butcher of Bucha. Evidence of Civilians executed and raped emerging. These are war crimes.
— stavridisj (@stavridisj) April 3, 2022
https://t.co/PUOLz2BQs4
Putin = Scum
Xi = Scum and a liar; China is asshooooe
Xi = Scum and a liar; China is asshooooe
When I was in college, people used to flex about understanding foreign policy by walking around with copies of The World is Flat.
— Noam Blum (@neontaster) April 3, 2022
It was a music school. pic.twitter.com/KmMVf21enr
Nothing new here ....old Russian habit.WacoKelly83 said:
https://t.co/PUOLz2BQs4Putin will go down in history as the Butcher of Bucha. Evidence of Civilians executed and raped emerging. These are war crimes.
— stavridisj (@stavridisj) April 3, 2022
https://t.co/PUOLz2BQs4
Rape...murder..................................repeat.
Just ask the Germans, Poles, Hungarians , and Czechs
Jack Bauer said:When I was in college, people used to flex about understanding foreign policy by walking around with copies of The World is Flat.
— Noam Blum (@neontaster) April 3, 2022
It was a music school. pic.twitter.com/KmMVf21enr
Friedman playing the true capitalist. #11- Never miss the opportunity to make a buck.
I am a bit confused, based on Friedman theory wouldn't this prove that Russia and Ukraine are not in the same supply chain? Does Dell still exist? : )
Music School was rough with that book? i could imagine City Management/Public Policy the globalist were insufferable even back in 1991. NAFTA, Clinton and .coms would have been brutal. Tne worst were the Journalism majors getting a Masters in Political Policy. Talked in sound bites and didn't delve into anything beyond a 10 second exchange, made it impossible to argue their points because you never got time to show the data, Profs loved them.
most populate name for baby girls in ukraine right now:
javelina!
- KKM
D!
{ sipping organic OJ (some pulp) }
{ eating donuts }
javelina!
- KKM
D!
{ sipping organic OJ (some pulp) }
{ eating donuts }
Go Bears!
Lost dog finally meeting his human in #Bucha after weeks of russian occupation pic.twitter.com/hxpZHrdUQR
— Stratcom Centre UA (@StratcomCentre) April 6, 2022
Go Bears!
william said:
most populate name for baby girls in ukraine right now:
javelina!
- KKM
D!
{ sipping organic OJ (some pulp) }
{ eating donuts }
Gotta love the Ukranians.
As Ukraine pummels Russians with Javelin missiles, can production keep pace with demand?https://t.co/QrUgXY8G8B
— The War Zone (@thewarzonewire) April 8, 2022