Ukraine says they basically need to be outfitted out with an entire standing army to win.

That's basically asking for force the size of the French army.

whiterock said:

---

Doc Holliday said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Doc Holliday said:

---

Hmmm

🚨BREAKING

🇺🇦Ukraine has permanently banned the opposition party. pic.twitter.com/8pKoucpJ9n

— Sam Street (@samstreetwrites) June 20, 2022

---

If they don't, Russia will pour in money to build an anti-war movement and Ukraine then would have a war on two fronts.

The British model of "War Cabinet" would be a wiser position to take, but however you dress it up, an existential war requires total commitment to the war, so long as there are bullets to fire.

---

There are no real rules in war.

Russia is insane, but I don't trust Ukraine. I don't trust our politicians dealing with Ukraine.

---

"Nations have no permanent friends, only permanent interests."

Hate to be blunt, but the bottom line: Ukraine is just a tool to bleed Russia right down to the last Ukrainian.

WWIII has already started. Ukraine is just the first set of barricades. Putin has made it very clear what he wants, in a great power context. So we arm Ukrainians to the teeth to slow down the Russian machine, which is headed for Bucharest, Budapest, and Warsaw. We support the fight now because of those three, only the Poles can truly be trusted to put up a Ukrainian level of commitment to resist. And in each of those three conflicts, our sons & daughters will be facing the arty.

My daughter arrived CONUS Friday PCS for a one-year Pentagon gig, then off to a war college (which one TBA). Kinda glad she's out of theater for a while.

She called Putin Big Daddy Vladdy. Because he controlled her schedule 24/7.

---

War college sounds fun!

Agreed, WW3 has started. Take a look at Putins speech last week and he makes it clear that he thinks there's no end game to negotiating with the west from decades of the western elite and establishment being essentially incompetent world police for ill gotten gains. https://www.adamtownsend.me/putin-speech/

I think it's an accurate criticism of the west, but very hypocritical for him to act like he and oligarchs aren't doing the same in Russia.

Quote:

---

Frankly, the democratic procedures and elections in Europe and the forces that come to power look like a front, because almost identical political parties come and go, while deep down things remain the same. The real interests of people and national businesses are being pushed further and further to the periphery.

Such a disconnect from reality and the demands of society will inevitably lead to a surge in populism and extremist and radical movements, major socioeconomic changes, degradation and a change of elites in the short term. As you can see, traditional parties lose all the time. New entities are coming to the surface, but they have little chance for survival if they are not much different from the existing ones.

The attempts to keep up appearances and the talk about allegedly acceptable costs in the name of pseudo-unity cannot hide the main thing: the European Union has lost its political sovereignty, and its bureaucratic elites are dancing to someone else's tune, doing everything they are told from on high and hurting their own people, economies, and businesses.

---

Doc Holliday said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Doc Holliday said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Doc Holliday said:

---

Hmmm

🚨BREAKING

🇺🇦Ukraine has permanently banned the opposition party. pic.twitter.com/8pKoucpJ9n

— Sam Street (@samstreetwrites) June 20, 2022

---

If they don't, Russia will pour in money to build an anti-war movement and Ukraine then would have a war on two fronts.

The British model of "War Cabinet" would be a wiser position to take, but however you dress it up, an existential war requires total commitment to the war, so long as there are bullets to fire.

---

There are no real rules in war.

Russia is insane, but I don't trust Ukraine. I don't trust our politicians dealing with Ukraine.

---

"Nations have no permanent friends, only permanent interests."

Hate to be blunt, but the bottom line: Ukraine is just a tool to bleed Russia right down to the last Ukrainian.

WWIII has already started. Ukraine is just the first set of barricades. Putin has made it very clear what he wants, in a great power context. So we arm Ukrainians to the teeth to slow down the Russian machine, which is headed for Bucharest, Budapest, and Warsaw. We support the fight now because of those three, only the Poles can truly be trusted to put up a Ukrainian level of commitment to resist. And in each of those three conflicts, our sons & daughters will be facing the arty.

My daughter arrived CONUS Friday PCS for a one-year Pentagon gig, then off to a war college (which one TBA). Kinda glad she's out of theater for a while.

She called Putin Big Daddy Vladdy. Because he controlled her schedule 24/7.

---

War college sounds fun!

Agreed, WW3 has started. Take a look at Putins speech last week and he makes it clear that he thinks there's no end game to negotiating with the west from decades of the western elite and establishment being essentially incompetent world police for ill gotten gains. https://www.adamtownsend.me/putin-speech/

I think it's an accurate criticism of the west, but very hypocritical for him to act like he and oligarchs aren't doing the same in Russia.

Quote:

---

Frankly, the democratic procedures and elections in Europe and the forces that come to power look like a front, because almost identical political parties come and go, while deep down things remain the same. The real interests of people and national businesses are being pushed further and further to the periphery.

Such a disconnect from reality and the demands of society will inevitably lead to a surge in populism and extremist and radical movements, major socioeconomic changes, degradation and a change of elites in the short term. As you can see, traditional parties lose all the time. New entities are coming to the surface, but they have little chance for survival if they are not much different from the existing ones.

The attempts to keep up appearances and the talk about allegedly acceptable costs in the name of pseudo-unity cannot hide the main thing: the European Union has lost its political sovereignty, and its bureaucratic elites are dancing to someone else's tune, doing everything they are told from on high and hurting their own people, economies, and businesses.

---

---

It's hard for western liberal worldview to appreciate how "old" is Russian worldview. The things driving Russian decisionmaking in some cases go back 1000 years. That leaves the liberal order no choice but to engineer the failure of the current Russian state. Grinding up the Russian army is a prerequisite for that, and turning Ukraine into a quagmire is the proximate opportunity.

whiterock said:

---

Doc Holliday said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Doc Holliday said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Doc Holliday said:

---

Hmmm

🚨BREAKING

🇺🇦Ukraine has permanently banned the opposition party. pic.twitter.com/8pKoucpJ9n

— Sam Street (@samstreetwrites) June 20, 2022

---

If they don't, Russia will pour in money to build an anti-war movement and Ukraine then would have a war on two fronts.

The British model of "War Cabinet" would be a wiser position to take, but however you dress it up, an existential war requires total commitment to the war, so long as there are bullets to fire.

---

There are no real rules in war.

Russia is insane, but I don't trust Ukraine. I don't trust our politicians dealing with Ukraine.

---

"Nations have no permanent friends, only permanent interests."

Hate to be blunt, but the bottom line: Ukraine is just a tool to bleed Russia right down to the last Ukrainian.

WWIII has already started. Ukraine is just the first set of barricades. Putin has made it very clear what he wants, in a great power context. So we arm Ukrainians to the teeth to slow down the Russian machine, which is headed for Bucharest, Budapest, and Warsaw. We support the fight now because of those three, only the Poles can truly be trusted to put up a Ukrainian level of commitment to resist. And in each of those three conflicts, our sons & daughters will be facing the arty.

My daughter arrived CONUS Friday PCS for a one-year Pentagon gig, then off to a war college (which one TBA). Kinda glad she's out of theater for a while.

She called Putin Big Daddy Vladdy. Because he controlled her schedule 24/7.

---

War college sounds fun!

Agreed, WW3 has started. Take a look at Putins speech last week and he makes it clear that he thinks there's no end game to negotiating with the west from decades of the western elite and establishment being essentially incompetent world police for ill gotten gains. https://www.adamtownsend.me/putin-speech/

I think it's an accurate criticism of the west, but very hypocritical for him to act like he and oligarchs aren't doing the same in Russia.

Quote:

---

Frankly, the democratic procedures and elections in Europe and the forces that come to power look like a front, because almost identical political parties come and go, while deep down things remain the same. The real interests of people and national businesses are being pushed further and further to the periphery.

Such a disconnect from reality and the demands of society will inevitably lead to a surge in populism and extremist and radical movements, major socioeconomic changes, degradation and a change of elites in the short term. As you can see, traditional parties lose all the time. New entities are coming to the surface, but they have little chance for survival if they are not much different from the existing ones.

The attempts to keep up appearances and the talk about allegedly acceptable costs in the name of pseudo-unity cannot hide the main thing: the European Union has lost its political sovereignty, and its bureaucratic elites are dancing to someone else's tune, doing everything they are told from on high and hurting their own people, economies, and businesses.

---

---

It's hard for western liberal worldview to appreciate how "old" is Russian worldview. The things driving Russian decisionmaking in some cases go back 1000 years. That leaves the liberal order no choice but to engineer the failure of the current Russian state. Grinding up the Russian army is a prerequisite for that, and turning Ukraine into a quagmire is the proximate opportunity.

---

Putin's speech doesn't sound like a declaration of war so much as a more articulate version of Trump. How strange that you often note the decline of globalism yet still think the liberal order can and should impose itself on every part of the globe.

Sam Lowry said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Doc Holliday said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Doc Holliday said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Doc Holliday said:

---

Hmmm

🚨BREAKING

🇺🇦Ukraine has permanently banned the opposition party. pic.twitter.com/8pKoucpJ9n

— Sam Street (@samstreetwrites) June 20, 2022

---

If they don't, Russia will pour in money to build an anti-war movement and Ukraine then would have a war on two fronts.

The British model of "War Cabinet" would be a wiser position to take, but however you dress it up, an existential war requires total commitment to the war, so long as there are bullets to fire.

---

There are no real rules in war.

Russia is insane, but I don't trust Ukraine. I don't trust our politicians dealing with Ukraine.

---

"Nations have no permanent friends, only permanent interests."

Hate to be blunt, but the bottom line: Ukraine is just a tool to bleed Russia right down to the last Ukrainian.

WWIII has already started. Ukraine is just the first set of barricades. Putin has made it very clear what he wants, in a great power context. So we arm Ukrainians to the teeth to slow down the Russian machine, which is headed for Bucharest, Budapest, and Warsaw. We support the fight now because of those three, only the Poles can truly be trusted to put up a Ukrainian level of commitment to resist. And in each of those three conflicts, our sons & daughters will be facing the arty.

My daughter arrived CONUS Friday PCS for a one-year Pentagon gig, then off to a war college (which one TBA). Kinda glad she's out of theater for a while.

She called Putin Big Daddy Vladdy. Because he controlled her schedule 24/7.

---

War college sounds fun!

Agreed, WW3 has started. Take a look at Putins speech last week and he makes it clear that he thinks there's no end game to negotiating with the west from decades of the western elite and establishment being essentially incompetent world police for ill gotten gains. https://www.adamtownsend.me/putin-speech/

I think it's an accurate criticism of the west, but very hypocritical for him to act like he and oligarchs aren't doing the same in Russia.

Quote:

---

Frankly, the democratic procedures and elections in Europe and the forces that come to power look like a front, because almost identical political parties come and go, while deep down things remain the same. The real interests of people and national businesses are being pushed further and further to the periphery.

Such a disconnect from reality and the demands of society will inevitably lead to a surge in populism and extremist and radical movements, major socioeconomic changes, degradation and a change of elites in the short term. As you can see, traditional parties lose all the time. New entities are coming to the surface, but they have little chance for survival if they are not much different from the existing ones.

The attempts to keep up appearances and the talk about allegedly acceptable costs in the name of pseudo-unity cannot hide the main thing: the European Union has lost its political sovereignty, and its bureaucratic elites are dancing to someone else's tune, doing everything they are told from on high and hurting their own people, economies, and businesses.

---

---

It's hard for western liberal worldview to appreciate how "old" is Russian worldview. The things driving Russian decisionmaking in some cases go back 1000 years. That leaves the liberal order no choice but to engineer the failure of the current Russian state. Grinding up the Russian army is a prerequisite for that, and turning Ukraine into a quagmire is the proximate opportunity.

---

Putin's speech doesn't sound like a declaration of war so much as a more articulate version of Trump. How strange that you often note the decline of globalism yet still think the liberal order can and should impose itself on every part of the globe.

---

"It would be a mistake to assume that at a time of turbulent change, one can simply sit it out or wait it out until everything gets back on track and becomes what it was before"

He crossed the rubicon with that line. That's a declaration of war imo.

His critique on the west is that we've become suicidal in our policies and development.

Ukraine is doing as well as it is because it is a proxy NATO nation and has been for a while. We've done a good job training their troops and are sending them tons of goodies.

That's also possibly why Putin invaded, but I digress.

Robert Wilson said:

---

Ukraine is doing as well as it is because it is a proxy NATO nation and has been for a while. We've done a good job training their troops and are sending them tons of goodies.

That's also possibly why Putin invaded, but I digress.

---

Yep, a little of the "chicken or the egg" paradox.

Would he have invaded if Ukraine had not become a defacto proxy of US-EU-NATO....or was Russia always going to invade one day no matter what and being a US-EU-NATO proxy was the only choice for Ukraine.

Doc Holliday said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Doc Holliday said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Doc Holliday said:

---

Hmmm

🚨BREAKING

🇺🇦Ukraine has permanently banned the opposition party. pic.twitter.com/8pKoucpJ9n

— Sam Street (@samstreetwrites) June 20, 2022

---

If they don't, Russia will pour in money to build an anti-war movement and Ukraine then would have a war on two fronts.

The British model of "War Cabinet" would be a wiser position to take, but however you dress it up, an existential war requires total commitment to the war, so long as there are bullets to fire.

---

There are no real rules in war.

Russia is insane, but I don't trust Ukraine. I don't trust our politicians dealing with Ukraine.

---

"Nations have no permanent friends, only permanent interests."

Hate to be blunt, but the bottom line: Ukraine is just a tool to bleed Russia right down to the last Ukrainian.

WWIII has already started. Ukraine is just the first set of barricades. Putin has made it very clear what he wants, in a great power context. So we arm Ukrainians to the teeth to slow down the Russian machine, which is headed for Bucharest, Budapest, and Warsaw. We support the fight now because of those three, only the Poles can truly be trusted to put up a Ukrainian level of commitment to resist. And in each of those three conflicts, our sons & daughters will be facing the arty.

My daughter arrived CONUS Friday PCS for a one-year Pentagon gig, then off to a war college (which one TBA). Kinda glad she's out of theater for a while.

She called Putin Big Daddy Vladdy. Because he controlled her schedule 24/7.

---

War college sounds fun!

Agreed, WW3 has started. Take a look at Putins speech last week and he makes it clear that he thinks there's no end game to negotiating with the west from decades of the western elite and establishment being essentially incompetent world police for ill gotten gains. https://www.adamtownsend.me/putin-speech/

I think it's an accurate criticism of the west, but very hypocritical for him to act like he and oligarchs aren't doing the same in Russia.

Quote:

---

Frankly, the democratic procedures and elections in Europe and the forces that come to power look like a front, because almost identical political parties come and go, while deep down things remain the same. The real interests of people and national businesses are being pushed further and further to the periphery.

Such a disconnect from reality and the demands of society will inevitably lead to a surge in populism and extremist and radical movements, major socioeconomic changes, degradation and a change of elites in the short term. As you can see, traditional parties lose all the time. New entities are coming to the surface, but they have little chance for survival if they are not much different from the existing ones.

The attempts to keep up appearances and the talk about allegedly acceptable costs in the name of pseudo-unity cannot hide the main thing: the European Union has lost its political sovereignty, and its bureaucratic elites are dancing to someone else's tune, doing everything they are told from on high and hurting their own people, economies, and businesses.

---

---

If that is true then its a disaster.

The last two world wars were disasters for humanity as well.

And if Putin thinks he is in some grand war with the West then he is going to find out that Russia (with an economy the size of Italy) and a population in demographic decline (rates similar to Japan) that he is in no position to win that against the US-EU.

He will also find that even China is not willing to fight the US-EU on his side militarily...vs just keep selling him guns and material for cash.

He would get clobbered in such a war.

Redbrickbear said:

---

Robert Wilson said:

---

Ukraine is doing as well as it is because it is a proxy NATO nation and has been for a while. We've done a good job training their troops and are sending them tons of goodies.

That's also possibly why Putin invaded, but I digress.

---

Yep, a little of the "chicken or the egg" paradox.

Would he have invaded if Ukraine had not become a defacto proxy of US-EU-NATO....or was Russia always going to invade one day no matter what and being a US-EU-NATO proxy was the only choice for Ukraine.

---

The story over here is always going to be the latter. I have my doubts. But we will never know.

Add to that - the cost/benefit analysis (to the US) of potentially triggering this kind of outcome by creating a NATO proxy on the Russian border was likely never done with any level of realism.

Redbrickbear said:

---

Doc Holliday said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Doc Holliday said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Doc Holliday said:

---

Hmmm

🚨BREAKING

🇺🇦Ukraine has permanently banned the opposition party. pic.twitter.com/8pKoucpJ9n

— Sam Street (@samstreetwrites) June 20, 2022

---

If they don't, Russia will pour in money to build an anti-war movement and Ukraine then would have a war on two fronts.

The British model of "War Cabinet" would be a wiser position to take, but however you dress it up, an existential war requires total commitment to the war, so long as there are bullets to fire.

---

There are no real rules in war.

Russia is insane, but I don't trust Ukraine. I don't trust our politicians dealing with Ukraine.

---

"Nations have no permanent friends, only permanent interests."

Hate to be blunt, but the bottom line: Ukraine is just a tool to bleed Russia right down to the last Ukrainian.

WWIII has already started. Ukraine is just the first set of barricades. Putin has made it very clear what he wants, in a great power context. So we arm Ukrainians to the teeth to slow down the Russian machine, which is headed for Bucharest, Budapest, and Warsaw. We support the fight now because of those three, only the Poles can truly be trusted to put up a Ukrainian level of commitment to resist. And in each of those three conflicts, our sons & daughters will be facing the arty.

My daughter arrived CONUS Friday PCS for a one-year Pentagon gig, then off to a war college (which one TBA). Kinda glad she's out of theater for a while.

She called Putin Big Daddy Vladdy. Because he controlled her schedule 24/7.

---

War college sounds fun!

Agreed, WW3 has started. Take a look at Putins speech last week and he makes it clear that he thinks there's no end game to negotiating with the west from decades of the western elite and establishment being essentially incompetent world police for ill gotten gains. https://www.adamtownsend.me/putin-speech/

I think it's an accurate criticism of the west, but very hypocritical for him to act like he and oligarchs aren't doing the same in Russia.

Quote:

---

Frankly, the democratic procedures and elections in Europe and the forces that come to power look like a front, because almost identical political parties come and go, while deep down things remain the same. The real interests of people and national businesses are being pushed further and further to the periphery.

Such a disconnect from reality and the demands of society will inevitably lead to a surge in populism and extremist and radical movements, major socioeconomic changes, degradation and a change of elites in the short term. As you can see, traditional parties lose all the time. New entities are coming to the surface, but they have little chance for survival if they are not much different from the existing ones.

The attempts to keep up appearances and the talk about allegedly acceptable costs in the name of pseudo-unity cannot hide the main thing: the European Union has lost its political sovereignty, and its bureaucratic elites are dancing to someone else's tune, doing everything they are told from on high and hurting their own people, economies, and businesses.

---

---

If that is true then its a disaster.

The last two world wars were disasters for humanity as well.

And if Putin thinks he is in some grand war with the West then he is going to find out that Russia (with an economy the size of Italy) and a population in demographic decline (rates similar to Japan) that he is in no position to win that against the US-EU.

He will also find that even China is not willing to fight the US-EU on his side militarily...vs just keep selling him guns and material for cash.

He would get clobbered in such a war.

---

China is very happy to sell Russia stuff, buy its oil at a discount, and watch it be degraded politically and militarily. China pretends to be an ally to Russia, but China is self interested and shrewd. China will subsume Russia or vast portions of Russia in the next decade.

He Hate Me said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

---

Doc Holliday said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Doc Holliday said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Doc Holliday said:

---

Hmmm

🚨BREAKING

🇺🇦Ukraine has permanently banned the opposition party. pic.twitter.com/8pKoucpJ9n

— Sam Street (@samstreetwrites) June 20, 2022

---

If they don't, Russia will pour in money to build an anti-war movement and Ukraine then would have a war on two fronts.

The British model of "War Cabinet" would be a wiser position to take, but however you dress it up, an existential war requires total commitment to the war, so long as there are bullets to fire.

---

There are no real rules in war.

Russia is insane, but I don't trust Ukraine. I don't trust our politicians dealing with Ukraine.

---

"Nations have no permanent friends, only permanent interests."

Hate to be blunt, but the bottom line: Ukraine is just a tool to bleed Russia right down to the last Ukrainian.

WWIII has already started. Ukraine is just the first set of barricades. Putin has made it very clear what he wants, in a great power context. So we arm Ukrainians to the teeth to slow down the Russian machine, which is headed for Bucharest, Budapest, and Warsaw. We support the fight now because of those three, only the Poles can truly be trusted to put up a Ukrainian level of commitment to resist. And in each of those three conflicts, our sons & daughters will be facing the arty.

My daughter arrived CONUS Friday PCS for a one-year Pentagon gig, then off to a war college (which one TBA). Kinda glad she's out of theater for a while.

She called Putin Big Daddy Vladdy. Because he controlled her schedule 24/7.

---

War college sounds fun!

Agreed, WW3 has started. Take a look at Putins speech last week and he makes it clear that he thinks there's no end game to negotiating with the west from decades of the western elite and establishment being essentially incompetent world police for ill gotten gains. https://www.adamtownsend.me/putin-speech/

I think it's an accurate criticism of the west, but very hypocritical for him to act like he and oligarchs aren't doing the same in Russia.

Quote:

---

Frankly, the democratic procedures and elections in Europe and the forces that come to power look like a front, because almost identical political parties come and go, while deep down things remain the same. The real interests of people and national businesses are being pushed further and further to the periphery.

Such a disconnect from reality and the demands of society will inevitably lead to a surge in populism and extremist and radical movements, major socioeconomic changes, degradation and a change of elites in the short term. As you can see, traditional parties lose all the time. New entities are coming to the surface, but they have little chance for survival if they are not much different from the existing ones.

The attempts to keep up appearances and the talk about allegedly acceptable costs in the name of pseudo-unity cannot hide the main thing: the European Union has lost its political sovereignty, and its bureaucratic elites are dancing to someone else's tune, doing everything they are told from on high and hurting their own people, economies, and businesses.

---

---

If that is true then its a disaster.

The last two world wars were disasters for humanity as well.

And if Putin thinks he is in some grand war with the West then he is going to find out that Russia (with an economy the size of Italy) and a population in demographic decline (rates similar to Japan) that he is in no position to win that against the US-EU.

He will also find that even China is not willing to fight the US-EU on his side militarily...vs just keep selling him guns and material for cash.

He would get clobbered in such a war.

---

China is very happy to sell Russia stuff, buy its oil at a discount, and watch it be degraded politically and militarily. China pretends to be an ally to Russia, but China is self interested and shrewd. China will subsume Russia or vast portions of Russia in the next decade.

---

Exactly, they are happy to make money off Russia (while also getting the satisfaction of giving the U.S. hegemon headaches) but in no way are they going to fight a world war for Putin.

Redbrickbear said:

---

Doc Holliday said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Doc Holliday said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Doc Holliday said:

---

Hmmm

🚨BREAKING

🇺🇦Ukraine has permanently banned the opposition party. pic.twitter.com/8pKoucpJ9n

— Sam Street (@samstreetwrites) June 20, 2022

---

If they don't, Russia will pour in money to build an anti-war movement and Ukraine then would have a war on two fronts.

The British model of "War Cabinet" would be a wiser position to take, but however you dress it up, an existential war requires total commitment to the war, so long as there are bullets to fire.

---

There are no real rules in war.

Russia is insane, but I don't trust Ukraine. I don't trust our politicians dealing with Ukraine.

---

"Nations have no permanent friends, only permanent interests."

Hate to be blunt, but the bottom line: Ukraine is just a tool to bleed Russia right down to the last Ukrainian.

WWIII has already started. Ukraine is just the first set of barricades. Putin has made it very clear what he wants, in a great power context. So we arm Ukrainians to the teeth to slow down the Russian machine, which is headed for Bucharest, Budapest, and Warsaw. We support the fight now because of those three, only the Poles can truly be trusted to put up a Ukrainian level of commitment to resist. And in each of those three conflicts, our sons & daughters will be facing the arty.

My daughter arrived CONUS Friday PCS for a one-year Pentagon gig, then off to a war college (which one TBA). Kinda glad she's out of theater for a while.

She called Putin Big Daddy Vladdy. Because he controlled her schedule 24/7.

---

War college sounds fun!

Agreed, WW3 has started. Take a look at Putins speech last week and he makes it clear that he thinks there's no end game to negotiating with the west from decades of the western elite and establishment being essentially incompetent world police for ill gotten gains. https://www.adamtownsend.me/putin-speech/

I think it's an accurate criticism of the west, but very hypocritical for him to act like he and oligarchs aren't doing the same in Russia.

Quote:

---

Frankly, the democratic procedures and elections in Europe and the forces that come to power look like a front, because almost identical political parties come and go, while deep down things remain the same. The real interests of people and national businesses are being pushed further and further to the periphery.

Such a disconnect from reality and the demands of society will inevitably lead to a surge in populism and extremist and radical movements, major socioeconomic changes, degradation and a change of elites in the short term. As you can see, traditional parties lose all the time. New entities are coming to the surface, but they have little chance for survival if they are not much different from the existing ones.

The attempts to keep up appearances and the talk about allegedly acceptable costs in the name of pseudo-unity cannot hide the main thing: the European Union has lost its political sovereignty, and its bureaucratic elites are dancing to someone else's tune, doing everything they are told from on high and hurting their own people, economies, and businesses.

---

---

If that is true then its a disaster.

The last two world wars were disasters for humanity as well.

And if Putin thinks he is in some grand war with the West then he is going to find out that Russia (with an economy the size of Italy) and a population in demographic decline (rates similar to Japan) that he is in no position to win that against the US-EU.

He will also find that even China is not willing to fight the US-EU on his side militarily...vs just keep selling him guns and material for cash.

He would get clobbered in such a war.

---

What really makes this a war is that sanctions against Russia didn't pan out. Initially they hurt their citizens, but now the ruble is the strongest currency in the world this year. Russian businessmen view sanctions as manageable and even a blessing in disguise. We can't fight an economic war against them as a means to crush their military advances.

We can't stop them outside of actual physical war and they have no intentions of stopping.

The West is currently blockading Kaliningrad where Russia has stockpiled their tactical nuclear weapons.

Doc Holliday said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

---

Doc Holliday said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Doc Holliday said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Doc Holliday said:

---

Hmmm

🚨BREAKING

🇺🇦Ukraine has permanently banned the opposition party. pic.twitter.com/8pKoucpJ9n

— Sam Street (@samstreetwrites) June 20, 2022

---

If they don't, Russia will pour in money to build an anti-war movement and Ukraine then would have a war on two fronts.

The British model of "War Cabinet" would be a wiser position to take, but however you dress it up, an existential war requires total commitment to the war, so long as there are bullets to fire.

---

There are no real rules in war.

Russia is insane, but I don't trust Ukraine. I don't trust our politicians dealing with Ukraine.

---

"Nations have no permanent friends, only permanent interests."

Hate to be blunt, but the bottom line: Ukraine is just a tool to bleed Russia right down to the last Ukrainian.

WWIII has already started. Ukraine is just the first set of barricades. Putin has made it very clear what he wants, in a great power context. So we arm Ukrainians to the teeth to slow down the Russian machine, which is headed for Bucharest, Budapest, and Warsaw. We support the fight now because of those three, only the Poles can truly be trusted to put up a Ukrainian level of commitment to resist. And in each of those three conflicts, our sons & daughters will be facing the arty.

My daughter arrived CONUS Friday PCS for a one-year Pentagon gig, then off to a war college (which one TBA). Kinda glad she's out of theater for a while.

She called Putin Big Daddy Vladdy. Because he controlled her schedule 24/7.

---

War college sounds fun!

Agreed, WW3 has started. Take a look at Putins speech last week and he makes it clear that he thinks there's no end game to negotiating with the west from decades of the western elite and establishment being essentially incompetent world police for ill gotten gains. https://www.adamtownsend.me/putin-speech/

I think it's an accurate criticism of the west, but very hypocritical for him to act like he and oligarchs aren't doing the same in Russia.

Quote:

---

Frankly, the democratic procedures and elections in Europe and the forces that come to power look like a front, because almost identical political parties come and go, while deep down things remain the same. The real interests of people and national businesses are being pushed further and further to the periphery.

Such a disconnect from reality and the demands of society will inevitably lead to a surge in populism and extremist and radical movements, major socioeconomic changes, degradation and a change of elites in the short term. As you can see, traditional parties lose all the time. New entities are coming to the surface, but they have little chance for survival if they are not much different from the existing ones.

The attempts to keep up appearances and the talk about allegedly acceptable costs in the name of pseudo-unity cannot hide the main thing: the European Union has lost its political sovereignty, and its bureaucratic elites are dancing to someone else's tune, doing everything they are told from on high and hurting their own people, economies, and businesses.

---

---

If that is true then its a disaster.

The last two world wars were disasters for humanity as well.

And if Putin thinks he is in some grand war with the West then he is going to find out that Russia (with an economy the size of Italy) and a population in demographic decline (rates similar to Japan) that he is in no position to win that against the US-EU.

He will also find that even China is not willing to fight the US-EU on his side militarily...vs just keep selling him guns and material for cash.

He would get clobbered in such a war.

---

What really makes this a war is that sanctions against Russia didn't pan out. Initially they hurt their citizens, but now the ruble is the strongest currency in the world this year.

---

At a 16% interest rate, yeah. The cost of capital over there though.

He Hate Me said:

---

Doc Holliday said:

---

Redbrickbear said:

---

Doc Holliday said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Doc Holliday said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Doc Holliday said:

---

Hmmm

🚨BREAKING

🇺🇦Ukraine has permanently banned the opposition party. pic.twitter.com/8pKoucpJ9n

— Sam Street (@samstreetwrites) June 20, 2022

---

If they don't, Russia will pour in money to build an anti-war movement and Ukraine then would have a war on two fronts.

The British model of "War Cabinet" would be a wiser position to take, but however you dress it up, an existential war requires total commitment to the war, so long as there are bullets to fire.

---

There are no real rules in war.

Russia is insane, but I don't trust Ukraine. I don't trust our politicians dealing with Ukraine.

---

"Nations have no permanent friends, only permanent interests."

Hate to be blunt, but the bottom line: Ukraine is just a tool to bleed Russia right down to the last Ukrainian.

WWIII has already started. Ukraine is just the first set of barricades. Putin has made it very clear what he wants, in a great power context. So we arm Ukrainians to the teeth to slow down the Russian machine, which is headed for Bucharest, Budapest, and Warsaw. We support the fight now because of those three, only the Poles can truly be trusted to put up a Ukrainian level of commitment to resist. And in each of those three conflicts, our sons & daughters will be facing the arty.

My daughter arrived CONUS Friday PCS for a one-year Pentagon gig, then off to a war college (which one TBA). Kinda glad she's out of theater for a while.

She called Putin Big Daddy Vladdy. Because he controlled her schedule 24/7.

---

War college sounds fun!

Agreed, WW3 has started. Take a look at Putins speech last week and he makes it clear that he thinks there's no end game to negotiating with the west from decades of the western elite and establishment being essentially incompetent world police for ill gotten gains. https://www.adamtownsend.me/putin-speech/

I think it's an accurate criticism of the west, but very hypocritical for him to act like he and oligarchs aren't doing the same in Russia.

Quote:

---

Frankly, the democratic procedures and elections in Europe and the forces that come to power look like a front, because almost identical political parties come and go, while deep down things remain the same. The real interests of people and national businesses are being pushed further and further to the periphery.

Such a disconnect from reality and the demands of society will inevitably lead to a surge in populism and extremist and radical movements, major socioeconomic changes, degradation and a change of elites in the short term. As you can see, traditional parties lose all the time. New entities are coming to the surface, but they have little chance for survival if they are not much different from the existing ones.

The attempts to keep up appearances and the talk about allegedly acceptable costs in the name of pseudo-unity cannot hide the main thing: the European Union has lost its political sovereignty, and its bureaucratic elites are dancing to someone else's tune, doing everything they are told from on high and hurting their own people, economies, and businesses.

---

---

If that is true then its a disaster.

The last two world wars were disasters for humanity as well.

And if Putin thinks he is in some grand war with the West then he is going to find out that Russia (with an economy the size of Italy) and a population in demographic decline (rates similar to Japan) that he is in no position to win that against the US-EU.

He will also find that even China is not willing to fight the US-EU on his side militarily...vs just keep selling him guns and material for cash.

He would get clobbered in such a war.

---

What really makes this a war is that sanctions against Russia didn't pan out. Initially they hurt their citizens, but now the ruble is the strongest currency in the world this year.

---

At a 16% interest rate, yeah. The cost of capital over there though.

---

Well its artificially high because Russia stopped accepting anything other than Rubles for payment, but sanctions really haven't done enough damage to curtail their behavior.

https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/are-sanctions-hurting-russia/

Sam Lowry said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Doc Holliday said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Doc Holliday said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Doc Holliday said:

---

Hmmm

🚨BREAKING

🇺🇦Ukraine has permanently banned the opposition party. pic.twitter.com/8pKoucpJ9n

— Sam Street (@samstreetwrites) June 20, 2022

---

If they don't, Russia will pour in money to build an anti-war movement and Ukraine then would have a war on two fronts.

The British model of "War Cabinet" would be a wiser position to take, but however you dress it up, an existential war requires total commitment to the war, so long as there are bullets to fire.

---

There are no real rules in war.

Russia is insane, but I don't trust Ukraine. I don't trust our politicians dealing with Ukraine.

---

"Nations have no permanent friends, only permanent interests."

Hate to be blunt, but the bottom line: Ukraine is just a tool to bleed Russia right down to the last Ukrainian.

WWIII has already started. Ukraine is just the first set of barricades. Putin has made it very clear what he wants, in a great power context. So we arm Ukrainians to the teeth to slow down the Russian machine, which is headed for Bucharest, Budapest, and Warsaw. We support the fight now because of those three, only the Poles can truly be trusted to put up a Ukrainian level of commitment to resist. And in each of those three conflicts, our sons & daughters will be facing the arty.

My daughter arrived CONUS Friday PCS for a one-year Pentagon gig, then off to a war college (which one TBA). Kinda glad she's out of theater for a while.

She called Putin Big Daddy Vladdy. Because he controlled her schedule 24/7.

---

War college sounds fun!

Agreed, WW3 has started. Take a look at Putins speech last week and he makes it clear that he thinks there's no end game to negotiating with the west from decades of the western elite and establishment being essentially incompetent world police for ill gotten gains. https://www.adamtownsend.me/putin-speech/

I think it's an accurate criticism of the west, but very hypocritical for him to act like he and oligarchs aren't doing the same in Russia.

Quote:

---

Frankly, the democratic procedures and elections in Europe and the forces that come to power look like a front, because almost identical political parties come and go, while deep down things remain the same. The real interests of people and national businesses are being pushed further and further to the periphery.

Such a disconnect from reality and the demands of society will inevitably lead to a surge in populism and extremist and radical movements, major socioeconomic changes, degradation and a change of elites in the short term. As you can see, traditional parties lose all the time. New entities are coming to the surface, but they have little chance for survival if they are not much different from the existing ones.

The attempts to keep up appearances and the talk about allegedly acceptable costs in the name of pseudo-unity cannot hide the main thing: the European Union has lost its political sovereignty, and its bureaucratic elites are dancing to someone else's tune, doing everything they are told from on high and hurting their own people, economies, and businesses.

---

---

It's hard for western liberal worldview to appreciate how "old" is Russian worldview. The things driving Russian decisionmaking in some cases go back 1000 years. That leaves the liberal order no choice but to engineer the failure of the current Russian state. Grinding up the Russian army is a prerequisite for that, and turning Ukraine into a quagmire is the proximate opportunity.

---

Putin's speech doesn't sound like a declaration of war so much as a more articulate version of Trump. How strange that you often note the decline of globalism yet still think the liberal order can and should impose itself on every part of the globe.

---

a pretty thin reed, counselor.

Putin has made a number of statements over the years that he wants his Warsaw Pact back. The context of that is that Russia ALWAYS wants to control the major invasion routes to Russia. During the Cold War they had them all controlled. Re-establishing that control involves removing Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia from NATO, one way or the other. Sure, there are scenarios where that could all happen peacefully. But the invasion of Ukraine means Russia will not wait centuries to let NATO fall apart.. The bear is coming for big pieces of Europe. That's why we have seen such extraordinary change, like the German government led by a liberal/green coalition abandoning renewable energy, firing up shuttered coal plants, selling war materiel to Ukraine, etc.... like Sweden and Finland joining NATO, etc.....

And why is Russia doing this? Because it sees the liberal order as a threat to Mother Russia. In reality, it's just a threat to the Putin regime. but the Putin regime is a very old thing, conceptually. His rise to power is a perfect analog to Nevsky's election by the boyars, a Russian model as old as time. and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, after two decades of consistent warning, is proof that his worldview is very old Russian as well.

On one level, it's fascinating. A ruler executing policy driven by 1000-year old dynamics, only with modern weapons. They are doing to Ukrainian cities EXACTLY what the Mongols, et al did....if they resist, burn them to the ground. Quite shocking to modern sensibilities of the liberal order. So does the liberal order have to tolerate that on its borders? or does the liberal order confront it now, while it is weak? Well, the dovish end of the political spectrum controls Washington and Berlin, and they are confronting the problem. That, too, is analytically significant.

That's because every time Russia consumes a country with 10s of millions of people, Russia gets stronger. It's population grows. It's resource base grows. We don't want to cede them territory. We want to force Russia to level every city it passes, force Russia to scorch the earth it gains. That forces Russia to burn the assets it's trying to seize.

Not in our lifetime has the world operated in such old ways.
We either have to prepare to return to such old ways, or make a regime change in Russia.

That's why I said here in another thread that some of Biden's "gaffes" about regime change in Russia are probably not exactly gaffes.

The mission the A-10 was designed for is playing out all over Ukraine https://t.co/JxPmlfQLjB

— Task & Purpose (@TaskandPurpose) June 27, 2022

Russia defaulted on its foreign-currency sovereign debt for the first time in a century https://t.co/ShogQXxxBS

— Bloomberg (@business) June 26, 2022

jupiter said:

---

The mission the A-10 was designed for is playing out all over Ukraine https://t.co/JxPmlfQLjB

— Task & Purpose (@TaskandPurpose) June 27, 2022

---

Always amused with the luv many folks have with the A-10.


Primarily because it looks 'cool'.


In reality the ground support aircraft is obsolete by at least two generations and would be slaughtered in anything less than a total air supremacy environment .

My privilege to be 1000 Post, when will this war end?

"It was clear from the onset and confirmed throughout our visit that volunteers played a critical role in the defense of Kyiv, yet their role has not been systematically studied." https://t.co/5yUmDw2I6R

— ArmyTimes (@ArmyTimes) July 6, 2022

In case you haven't noticed ........Russia is continuing to occupy more Ukrainian territory .

Canada2017 said:

---

In case you haven't noticed ........Russia is continuing to occupy more Ukrainian territory .

---

5% at a great cost and being slowly pushed out of other places...

Bear8084 said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

In case you haven't noticed ........Russia is continuing to occupy more Ukrainian territory .

---

5% at a great cost and being slowly pushed out of other places...

---

Russians have never cared about KIA's ....only victory .

Canada2017 said:

---

Bear8084 said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

In case you haven't noticed ........Russia is continuing to occupy more Ukrainian territory .

---

5% at a great cost and being slowly pushed out of other places...

---

Russians have never cared about KIA's ....only victory .

---

It has ended a few of their modern wars. And it has not only been at a great cost in trained personnel but also equipment.

It's hard to say if they are "winning" or not because the objectives keep changing and has shrunk. Whatever little they do have now, it has come at a horrific cost in material and manpower. It adds up, even for Russia. Especially when they are still at "peactime" army numbers and not full mobilization.

Worth remembering the words of Captain Sir Basil Liddell Hart:

(waging war at a lower cost means) "to produce the enemy's increasing overstretch, physical and moral.....Nations do not wage war for war's sake, but in pursuance of policy. The military objective is only the means to a political end. Hence the military objective should be governed by the political objective … The objective in war is a better state of peace even if only from your own point of view. Hence it is essential to conduct war with constant regard to the peace you desire.'

Russia has for centuries had limitless manpower (compared to other European powers) to throw into the meat grinder of war, and the non-Russian ethnics from far-flung parts of its empire always seem to get ground up first. So the death toll is not terribly high on the list of concerns. They have 3x the population of Ukraine and can sustain high human cost of a war of attrition at a level Ukraine simply cannot. (just like the North versus the South in our Civil War). Further, retaking Ukraine is a historic strategic necessity so bearing those losses is a cost worth bearing......to Russia.

Similarly, none of the changed dynamics in Europe are, to Russia, a significant price to pay for strategic gains in Ukraine. NATO could always be expected to galvanize in the face of Russian aggression. Finland and Sweden already trained with Nato forces and have at no point in their history been "allies" of Russia. So the changes in European security are small in matters of degree and quite predictable. An imperialist Russia could be guaranteed to cause NATO to firm up.

Russia has gained a small piece of Ukraine, but with it comes significant resource wealth and a significantly improved position in control of the Black Sea. It has also destabilized Ukraine, to a point where it cannot defend itself without total reliance on foreign assistance. Thus, this war is a significant win for Russia so far. No deterrence at all. Now they know how the West will respond and what the costs will be on the next move. They were well prepared to weather the sanctions this go around, and will be for the next. The only real constraint is that the sanctions will limit their ability to grow their oil/gas revenues and to re-build sophisticated military hardware. It will take longer than they'd like, but what's time to a hog?

The lesson for us is, the cost of high-tech war is only bearable in short or low-intensity wars. If they drag on for months/years at high intensity, the battle will turn old school very quickly. Even we will run out of JDAMs and Patriots and Tomahawks and Javelins....... It will get down to exactly the kind of war Liddell Hart wanted to prevent - a WWI meat grinder.

Russian has the will for that.
Do we?

Canada2017 said:

---

Bear8084 said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

In case you haven't noticed ........Russia is continuing to occupy more Ukrainian territory .

---

5% at a great cost and being slowly pushed out of other places...

---

Russians have never cared about KIA's ....only victory .

---

Depends on who you ask.


Veteran Russian diplomat resigns in protest of Moscow's "aggressive war" in Ukraine
https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-05-23-22/h_5182b29b8442cef223575b98e83d1951


Russian citizens continue to protest war with Ukraine despite threat of punishment
https://www.npr.org/2022/03/20/1087766146/russian-citizens-continue-to-protest-war-with-ukraine-despite-threat-of-punishme

How Russians are protesting the war in Ukraine from a totalitarian state
https://globalvoices.org/2022/05/23/google-bucha-ways-of-protesting-the-war-in-ukraine-from-a-totalitarian-state/

Oldbear83 said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

Bear8084 said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

In case you haven't noticed ........Russia is continuing to occupy more Ukrainian territory .

---

5% at a great cost and being slowly pushed out of other places...

---

Russians have never cared about KIA's ....only victory .

---

Depends on who you ask.


Veteran Russian diplomat resigns in protest of Moscow's "aggressive war" in Ukraine
https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-05-23-22/h_5182b29b8442cef223575b98e83d1951


Russian citizens continue to protest war with Ukraine despite threat of punishment
https://www.npr.org/2022/03/20/1087766146/russian-citizens-continue-to-protest-war-with-ukraine-despite-threat-of-punishme

How Russians are protesting the war in Ukraine from a totalitarian state
https://globalvoices.org/2022/05/23/google-bucha-ways-of-protesting-the-war-in-ukraine-from-a-totalitarian-state/

---

we're a long way from the kind of pressure the Russian people endured under Communism.

whiterock said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

Bear8084 said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

In case you haven't noticed ........Russia is continuing to occupy more Ukrainian territory .

---

5% at a great cost and being slowly pushed out of other places...

---

Russians have never cared about KIA's ....only victory .

---

Depends on who you ask.


Veteran Russian diplomat resigns in protest of Moscow's "aggressive war" in Ukraine
https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-05-23-22/h_5182b29b8442cef223575b98e83d1951


Russian citizens continue to protest war with Ukraine despite threat of punishment
https://www.npr.org/2022/03/20/1087766146/russian-citizens-continue-to-protest-war-with-ukraine-despite-threat-of-punishme

How Russians are protesting the war in Ukraine from a totalitarian state
https://globalvoices.org/2022/05/23/google-bucha-ways-of-protesting-the-war-in-ukraine-from-a-totalitarian-state/

---

we're a long way from the kind of pressure the Russian people endured under Communism.

---

We're a long way from The Glorious Patriotic War, too.


But Putin does not seem to know that.

US Senators Meet With Ukrainian President, Discuss Designating Russia As "State Sponsor Of Terrorism" https://t.co/5tgwhXyME2

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 10, 2022

Airtight. https://t.co/jc3EiQlCqS

— cdrsalamander (@cdrsalamander) July 12, 2022