whiterock said:

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OP asked how long this war will last. At this point, it could be years. Russia has the manpower and resources to carry on forever; Ukraine not so much. Ergo, a long-term stalemate that destabilizes Ukraine is a net-win for Russia.

Outright Ukrainian victory has a very steep hill to climb - Crimea is a must have for Russia, a strategic asset Russia will mobilize to retain. Loss of it would severely restrict Russian status as a world power, as it could not maintain a serious Black Sea fleet needed to deter & project against the southern tier of NATO nations, and to support Russian foreign policy aims* in the Middle East (which has significant impact on Russian energy industry).

Ukraine and the West should be calling for international support to make the Black Sea a demilitarized zone. Will not happen, of course, but such would keep Russia on the defensive in international forums.

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A demilitarized zone in the Black Sea would make a lot of sense... but I doubt the current White House could pull it off. They might get it done, but the compromise would be Nordstream 2 and a lot of other victories for Russia, so it would be a net loss for the West.

https://warontherocks.com/2022/04/ukraines-military-advantage-and-russias-stark-choices/

whiterock said:

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OP asked how long this war will last. At this point, it could be years. Russia has the manpower and resources to carry on forever; Ukraine not so much. Ergo, a long-term stalemate that destabilizes Ukraine is a net-win for Russia.

Outright Ukrainian victory has a very steep hill to climb - Crimea is a must have for Russia, a strategic asset Russia will mobilize to retain. Loss of it would severely restrict Russian status as a world power, as it could not maintain a serious Black Sea fleet needed to deter & project against the southern tier of NATO nations, and to support Russian foreign policy aims* in the Middle East (which has significant impact on Russian energy industry).

Ukraine and the West should be calling for international support to make the Black Sea a demilitarized zone. Will not happen, of course, but such would keep Russia on the defensive in international forums.

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How convenient for the military industrial complex. $$$$$$$

We've given billions in military aid to Ukraine. I wonder how much we end up at when this cools down.

Russia’s war dead belie its slogan that no one is left behind https://t.co/cQQcEb4KuL

— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) April 8, 2022

“The Russian high command behaves as if its troops are an afterthought, making tactical decisions as if it can simply throw people at poorly designed objectives until it succeeds.” A superb article by ⁦⁦@MassDara⁩ at ⁦@ForeignAffairs⁩ https://t.co/M1hu4cvZcV

— Mick Ryan, AM (@WarintheFuture) May 19, 2022

BREAKING: 🇷🇺 Russia’s Counsellor to the United Nations in Geneva has resigned.

Boris Bondarev: “Never have I been so ashamed of my country.”

UN Watch is now calling on all other Russian diplomats at the United Nations—and worldwide—to follow his moral example and resign.

🧵: pic.twitter.com/ZuKqq0gJO8

— Hillel Neuer (@HillelNeuer) May 23, 2022

There's a legitimate chance Putin doesn't survive this, and Ukraine pulls off the biggest upset of the Russians since the Miracle on Ice.

ATL Bear said:

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There's a legitimate chance Putin doesn't survive this, and Ukraine pulls off the biggest upset of the Russians since the Miracle on Ice.

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Doubt it .

Russians don't care about how many men they lose…..as long as they achieve their objectives.

ATL Bear said:

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There's a legitimate chance Putin doesn't survive this, and Ukraine pulls off the biggest upset of the Russians since the Miracle on Ice.

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Possible, but a long way to go. The signs are there though.

"Three months after the invasion, many ordinary #Russians are reeling from blows to their livelihoods and emotions."#Sanctions are only beginning to kick in. Public unrest akin to widespread 2018 pension reform protests could emerge.https://t.co/Yg061XDuqj

— William Courtney (@courtneywmh) May 23, 2022

ATL Bear said:

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There's a legitimate chance Putin doesn't survive this, and Ukraine pulls off the biggest upset of the Russians since the Miracle on Ice.

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Have you heard about what Russia has in line to take Putin's place ?

HuMcK said:

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Proud 1992 Alum said:

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HuMcK said:

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ShooterTX said:

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DancinBear09 said:

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RMF5630 said:

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ShooterTX said:

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This is so ridiculous.
Putin takes Crimea under the weak Obama.
Putin invades Ukraine under the weak Biden.
Yet there are morons who believe that Trump was weak??

In a few months, Xi will begin his move on Taiwan. Then he will look at Indonesia and Malaysia. He will claim to be going there to bring stability to the chaos.

I doubt Putin will directly invade a NATO ally, but that really depends upon how sleepy Joe responds to Ukraine. If he continues to project weakness, then Putin might go after the Czech Republic, Serbia, and some other eastern block nations.

It won't be a World War if Biden just rolls over like Chamberlain did in the 1930s... which sounds like the most likely scenario.

This is what happens when you eject a moron who claims that white supremacy and climate change are the greatest threats to America. Biden is either a fool, or evil... take your pick. Either he was too stupid to recognize the true threats, or he is an evil ******* who lied about the true threats.
Either way, democrats have given us this disaster when they voted for this idiot.

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Yeah Putin owned Trump? Didn't see tanks roll on his watch.
I think Putin will challenge NATO commitment in a lithuania and then other Baltic states. Poland i think is a bridge too far.

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I think Putin saw somewhat of ally in Trump (in a way unbeknownst to Trump). I feel Putin' plan was to play into Trump's narcissistic pathology by providing complements and "buddying up" to Trump in an effort to manipulate Trump's influence on NATO and the rest of the European PMs to get them to cool down or kill discussions about Ukraine joining NATO. That never ended up happening, Biden became president, and I imagine he saw Biden as somewhat of a weak enough leader to where he could flex his military might with little to no military reprisal from the West. Make no mistake about it though, this is 30 years in the making. Ukraine has slowly been gravitating towards Western influence for years. The have been begging to join NATO, they ousted a Russian loyalist PM out of office, and the West has not denied The possibility of Ukraine's admittance into NATO. Putin sees this as a huge threat and feels this is is last option.

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Revisionist history.
The closest Ukraine came to joining NATO was before Trump. By the time Trump came to office, Putin already had Crimea. Trump was doing all he could to keep Putin contained, but by that time Ukraine was split on the idea of joining NATO. Many in Ukraine believed joining would antagonize Russia, and lead to a full invasion and full war. Many in Ukraine didn't want their nation to become the battle front for WW3... they would rather hope for peaceful coexistence with Russia. That worked for a few years, until America "elected" one of the weakest presidents in history.
Now Putin faces no resistance, and can easily gain ground & resources. He also gains a huge bargaining chip for the next round of negotiations with the west.
Obama made it possible to take Crimea and now Biden makes it possible to take Ukraine. Trump was a deterrent while he was in office. The idea that Putin liked Trump is stupid. Putin gained nothing under Trump... how was that good for him?

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Trump's first campaign manager, that he pardoned to conceal the substance of that man's contact with a Russian spy, was Russian puppet Viktor Yanukovyich's top adviser. Trump's idea of "containment" was to relieve pressure on Russia by handing them back Syria (I wonder how many of those forces that were once tied down in Syria are now in Ukraine?) and withholding military aid from Ukraine as part of an extortion plot.

Has Trump even criticized the latest invasion yet? He had no problem whining about Hillary while the Russian buildup made it obvious what was about to happen. I've heard him call Putin a genius and praise the move, but I haven't heard him condemn anything yet. That conspicuous silence, while saying so much else, speaks volumes.

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What? Under Trump, the U.S. military killed 90 Russian soldiers and 100 non-Russian mercenaries in a single strike in Syria. Not a huge fan of Trump, but he was better than Obama and Biden on Russia.

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I've never seen any indication that he ordered that defensive strike, the call was made by the forces under attack. Not like the guy ever had trouble taking credit for anything else. And again, his long term response to that event was to retreat to far east Syria, which eventually let Putin basically close the book on that entire front. I'm not kidding, I actually wonder how much if any of the forces once in Syria (especially the air power) are now in Ukraine.

Trump was right about Nordstream 2 (which appears dead for now, at Biden's hand ironically), and getting NATO allies to spend more (even though they already committed to that under Obama). Outside of that he has some very conspicuous blind spots and rhetorical no-go zones that benefited Russia/Putin that continue to do so now.

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.⁦@IgnatiusPost⁩: Biden gave Germany a pass on an initial round of sanctions against a company building the Nord Stream 2 pipeline in exchange for a pledge from Chancellor Angela Merkel that if Russia invaded, Nord Stream 2 would be scrapped. https://t.co/XnENnhn3xB

— Max Boot 🇺🇦 (@MaxBoot) May 27, 2022

Did Ukraine win ? Have seen very little news regarding the war today.

Oldbear83 said:

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RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

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Did Ukraine win ? Have seen very little news regarding the war today.

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It's a war, not a ball game

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Ukrainian propaganda is very, very good and you won't hear this narrative in media, but it's quite clear that Russia has the initiative at this point in time. They are grinding out very small territory gains each day. with massive artillery barrages and massed infantry movements, attempting to reduce the shoulders of the Severodonetsk salient in very small bites. If they keep taking another month of small bites, they'll occupy what's left of the Donbas. Also doing the same thing west of Kherson, trying to finish a push to Odessa, which threatens to landlock Ukraine, which secures the Russian Black Sea Fleet, locks up control of significant offshore oil/gas reserves along the Ukrainian coast, blockades 10% of the world's wheat supply, and opens up Russian efforts to do to Moldova what it's done to Ukraine. Nowhere that matters are the Ukranians able to reverse these trends.

It's a style of warfare they Russians are good at - attrition warfare. Normally, a state like Russia which has such an economic and demographic advantage could be expected to simply outlast a war of attrition against an economically and demographically smaller state like Ukraine. And Russian logistical challenges raise obvious questions about whether Russia can sustain its advantages and gains, and the war right now is a de facto avatar for NATO war planning against Russia -- slow them down long enough for their logistics to implode. And it's aaaalmost working out that way. But Russia ain't done yet.

BUT....until Ukraine starts making gains along the main lines of Russian advance....it's still advantage Russia. That's why you're hearing very little news about the war recently. Russia is on pace to achieve a better peace....a peace that leaves them in better position than before. Ukraine is simply not looking at any realistic scenarios of achieving a better peace.

whiterock said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

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Did Ukraine win ? Have seen very little news regarding the war today.

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It's a war, not a ball game

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Ukrainian propaganda is very, very good and you won't hear this narrative in media, but it's quite clear that Russia has the initiative at this point in time. They are grinding out very small territory gains each day. with massive artillery barrages and massed infantry movements, attempting to reduce the shoulders of the Severodonetsk salient in very small bites. If they keep taking another month of small bites, they'll occupy what's left of the Donbas. Also doing the same thing west of Kherson, trying to finish a push to Odessa, which threatens to landlock Ukraine, which secures the Russian Black Sea Fleet, locks up control of significant offshore oil/gas reserves along the Ukrainian coast, blockades 10% of the world's wheat supply, and opens up Russian efforts to do to Moldova what it's done to Ukraine. Nowhere that matters are the Ukranians able to reverse these trends.

It's a style of warfare they Russians are good at - attrition warfare. Normally, a state like Russia which has such an economic and demographic advantage could be expected to simply outlast a war of attrition against an economically and demographically smaller state like Ukraine. And Russian logistical challenges raise obvious questions about whether Russia can sustain its advantages and gains, and the war right now is a de facto avatar for NATO war planning against Russia -- slow them down long enough for their logistics to implode. And it's aaaalmost working out that way. But Russia ain't done yet.

BUT....until Ukraine starts making gains along the main lines of Russian advance....it's still advantage Russia. That's why you're hearing very little news about the war recently. Russia is on pace to achieve a better peace....a peace that leaves them in better position than before. Ukraine is simply not looking at any realistic scenarios of achieving a better peace.

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https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-26

Small bites yes, but Russia is paying dearly for it. There has been no movement in the Kherson area for a while.

whiterock said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

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Did Ukraine win ? Have seen very little news regarding the war today.

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It's a war, not a ball game

---

Ukrainian propaganda is very, very good and you won't hear this narrative in media, but it's quite clear that Russia has the initiative at this point in time. They are grinding out very small territory gains each day. with massive artillery barrages and massed infantry movements, attempting to reduce the shoulders of the Severodonetsk salient in very small bites. If they keep taking another month of small bites, they'll occupy what's left of the Donbas. Also doing the same thing west of Kherson, trying to finish a push to Odessa, which threatens to landlock Ukraine, which secures the Russian Black Sea Fleet, locks up control of significant offshore oil/gas reserves along the Ukrainian coast, blockades 10% of the world's wheat supply, and opens up Russian efforts to do to Moldova what it's done to Ukraine. Nowhere that matters are the Ukranians able to reverse these trends.

It's a style of warfare they Russians are good at - attrition warfare. Normally, a state like Russia which has such an economic and demographic advantage could be expected to simply outlast a war of attrition against an economically and demographically smaller state like Ukraine. And Russian logistical challenges raise obvious questions about whether Russia can sustain its advantages and gains, and the war right now is a de facto avatar for NATO war planning against Russia -- slow them down long enough for their logistics to implode. And it's aaaalmost working out that way. But Russia ain't done yet.

BUT....until Ukraine starts making gains along the main lines of Russian advance....it's still advantage Russia. That's why you're hearing very little news about the war recently. Russia is on pace to achieve a better peace....a peace that leaves them in better position than before. Ukraine is simply not looking at any realistic scenarios of achieving a better peace.

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All true .

Better weather is allowing Russia to fully deploy their arsenal.

Ukraine is in dire trouble .

Canada2017 said:

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whiterock said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

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Did Ukraine win ? Have seen very little news regarding the war today.

---

It's a war, not a ball game

---

Ukrainian propaganda is very, very good and you won't hear this narrative in media, but it's quite clear that Russia has the initiative at this point in time. They are grinding out very small territory gains each day. with massive artillery barrages and massed infantry movements, attempting to reduce the shoulders of the Severodonetsk salient in very small bites. If they keep taking another month of small bites, they'll occupy what's left of the Donbas. Also doing the same thing west of Kherson, trying to finish a push to Odessa, which threatens to landlock Ukraine, which secures the Russian Black Sea Fleet, locks up control of significant offshore oil/gas reserves along the Ukrainian coast, blockades 10% of the world's wheat supply, and opens up Russian efforts to do to Moldova what it's done to Ukraine. Nowhere that matters are the Ukranians able to reverse these trends.

It's a style of warfare they Russians are good at - attrition warfare. Normally, a state like Russia which has such an economic and demographic advantage could be expected to simply outlast a war of attrition against an economically and demographically smaller state like Ukraine. And Russian logistical challenges raise obvious questions about whether Russia can sustain its advantages and gains, and the war right now is a de facto avatar for NATO war planning against Russia -- slow them down long enough for their logistics to implode. And it's aaaalmost working out that way. But Russia ain't done yet.

BUT....until Ukraine starts making gains along the main lines of Russian advance....it's still advantage Russia. That's why you're hearing very little news about the war recently. Russia is on pace to achieve a better peace....a peace that leaves them in better position than before. Ukraine is simply not looking at any realistic scenarios of achieving a better peace.

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All true .

Better weather is allowing Russia to fully deploy their arsenal.

Ukraine is in dire trouble .

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That's certainly true unless the anticipated Russian logistical collapse happens (which could). Ukraine is looking pretty resolute, but reality is, were it not for Western financial and military aid to Ukraine, this war would already be over = Russian victory.

We can keep Ukraine in the war all the way to the last Ukrainian, and will do so. This is a proxy war to destroy Russia, a world war involving alliances and aid and wheat blocades and international alliances.

Globalism's failure is now complete.

Just opened the Economist's daily "World in Brief" email, showing Russia is assessed to have encircled Severofonetsk.

I guess the story abt Nato expansion and Nazi purge has been superseded by one of imperial (re)conquest and glory. https://t.co/HyLRqXGH5k

— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) June 9, 2022

primary impact of sanctions on Russia is in their ability to import things needed to keep their oil and military functioning properly.

HuMcK said:

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Some of them are starting to get it.

In an extremely rare moment of candour on Russian state TV today, defence columnist Mikhail Khodaryonok gave a damning assessment of Russia's war in Ukraine and his country's international isolation. It's fairly long but worth your time so I've added subtitles. pic.twitter.com/0mr7WAgSx6

— Francis Scarr (@francis_scarr) May 16, 2022

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Wonder if we can give those Russians, who are ashamed of their country, asylum. I mean, if we can get some Russian immigrants here, they can help Trump win in 2024, right?

Rawhide said:

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HuMcK said:

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Some of them are starting to get it.

In an extremely rare moment of candour on Russian state TV today, defence columnist Mikhail Khodaryonok gave a damning assessment of Russia's war in Ukraine and his country's international isolation. It's fairly long but worth your time so I've added subtitles. pic.twitter.com/0mr7WAgSx6

— Francis Scarr (@francis_scarr) May 16, 2022

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Wonder if we can give those Russians, who are ashamed of their country, asylum. I mean, if we can get some Russian immigrants here, they can help Trump win in 2024, right?

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Turkey has made a business model of it.....the asylum part. The other not so much. Yet.

Hmmm

🚨BREAKING

🇺🇦Ukraine has permanently banned the opposition party. pic.twitter.com/8pKoucpJ9n

— Sam Street (@samstreetwrites) June 20, 2022

Doc Holliday said:

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Hmmm

🚨BREAKING

🇺🇦Ukraine has permanently banned the opposition party. pic.twitter.com/8pKoucpJ9n

— Sam Street (@samstreetwrites) June 20, 2022

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If they don't, Russia will pour in money to build an anti-war movement and Ukraine then would have a war on two fronts.

The British model of "War Cabinet" would be a wiser position to take, but however you dress it up, an existential war requires total commitment to the war, so long as there are bullets to fire.

whiterock said:

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Doc Holliday said:

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Hmmm

🚨BREAKING

🇺🇦Ukraine has permanently banned the opposition party. pic.twitter.com/8pKoucpJ9n

— Sam Street (@samstreetwrites) June 20, 2022

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If they don't, Russia will pour in money to build an anti-war movement and Ukraine then would have a war on two fronts.

The British model of "War Cabinet" would be a wiser position to take, but however you dress it up, an existential war requires total commitment to the war, so long as there are bullets to fire.

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There are no real rules in war.

Russia is insane, but I don't trust Ukraine. I don't trust our politicians dealing with Ukraine.

Doc Holliday said:

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whiterock said:

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Doc Holliday said:

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Hmmm

🚨BREAKING

🇺🇦Ukraine has permanently banned the opposition party. pic.twitter.com/8pKoucpJ9n

— Sam Street (@samstreetwrites) June 20, 2022

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If they don't, Russia will pour in money to build an anti-war movement and Ukraine then would have a war on two fronts.

The British model of "War Cabinet" would be a wiser position to take, but however you dress it up, an existential war requires total commitment to the war, so long as there are bullets to fire.

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There are no real rules in war.

Russia is insane, but I don't trust Ukraine. I don't trust our politicians dealing with Ukraine.

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"Nations have no permanent friends, only permanent interests."

Hate to be blunt, but the bottom line: Ukraine is just a tool to bleed Russia right down to the last Ukrainian.

WWIII has already started. Ukraine is just the first set of barricades. Putin has made it very clear what he wants, in a great power context. So we arm Ukrainians to the teeth to slow down the Russian machine, which is headed for Bucharest, Budapest, and Warsaw. We support the fight now because of those three, only the Poles can truly be trusted to put up a Ukrainian level of commitment to resist. And in each of those three conflicts, our sons & daughters will be facing the arty.

My daughter arrived CONUS Friday PCS for a one-year Pentagon gig, then off to a war college (which one TBA). Kinda glad she's out of theater for a while.

She called Putin Big Daddy Vladdy. Because he controlled her schedule 24/7.

RUMOR: The cast of Friends will be flying American warplanes for Ukraine by the end of the week. https://t.co/EpXc7yEhUs

— Dave Rubin (@RubinReport) June 21, 2022