Recession

123,388 Views | 1591 Replies | Last: 8 hrs ago by william
Oldbear83
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BUDOS said:

Oldbear83 said:

FLBear5630 said:

Oldbear83 said:

FLBear5630 said:

J.R. said:

FLBear5630 said:

Doc Holliday said:

FLBear5630 said:

Doc Holliday said:

RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

boognish_bear said:



So the average household in the U.S. is $333,000+ in debt? I think it is substantial but am very skeptical about this number. I don't think it is near that high.

I was thinking it should be much higher

Depends on if housing is included. If yes, I agree may be higher. If not, that seems too high.

It could be the average, but it could easily double in the next decade.

For young adults buying their first cars, homes and maintaining even low middle class lifestyle, there's no way their mortgage balance alone isn't above $400k. The average home price is $512k and IF they put down 20% they will owe about $410k. Add in student loans, cars and cost of living...I could easily see $600k or so in debt being the norm.



Debt is a way of life. You will see more people cash flowing their lives rather than paying things off. For the 80% there is no getting around it. The goal will be getting everything paid off by 72, which will be the new retirement age.

It is not what Dave Ramsey and the financial conservatives like, but there comes a time when how much of your life do you do nothing but pay to have no debt? So your ratios are good? But, there is really no way around it when you crunch the numbers.

(I am not the best one to discuss this with. I watched my Mom have her hot water heater on a timer and not spend a dime so she would have no debt and she could travel. Died at 63, never took one trip. A life of not even being able to take a hot shower on demand. So, I get the financial responsibility thing, but those hospice visits will always push me to do things with my kids...)

Debt is a killer! I don't do much leverage(only for multi-family as they are large assets). I know I could make more $ levering some thing up, but I just don't like debt and like to sleep well. I have explained this to my young adult kids....one gets it, one doesn't.


Crunch the numbers you put out. How do you do that, raise a family and not have debt? I know you dont agree with debt, but if is going to be a bigger part of Life going forward. Until that gap you mention narrows, stable income is going to be more important. Or you will have people delaying life, creating perpetual teenagers

The problem most people have with debt, is that they take on debt without thinking about it, much less having a serious plan for handling that debt.

Properly planned, a house is a solid investment. Properly planned, cars or even college can make sense. But spur of the moment decisions are often bad ideas, and a lack of basic financial literacy is jumping out of the plane not knowing if what you strapped on your back is a parachute, a backpack with books in it, or a backpack with a 'so long, sucker' note in it.


I am not Talking spur of the moment. Look at the categories mentioned- house, car, education, and even health care. They are all investments. Debt has to serve a purpose to be worth doing. At different stages of our lives, different areas of debt become worth it.

The days of saving for a car cash are quickly becoming unrealistic. Housing, education, and even required health are going to require time. Stable Revenue/income to accomplish is becoming more important than saving a lump sum, as the needed lump sum is becoming larger. I think we are seeing issues as people are not wanting to work in those types of jobs like our parents, grandparents did. How many of the young having trouble getting housing will actually do 30 year grind it takes to pay off a mortgage? 200k or 400k?

I agree on debt having to be planned, but housing, health, education, transportation are all basic items that should increase earning capacity, not limit. If we are not going to have Government paid health or education and be free market, debt is a fact of life.


I agree. A big problem is that many people do take on debt without thinking.

Agreed, and even these "smaller" amounts add up in multiple ways.
As it relates to health insurance, why not examine how the better run national programs do it, such as Norway, Denmark and Sweden and start tweaking ours based on that research?

In a word, scale. There is a good reason only small countries seem to make a government-run program anything but worse than what it tried to fix.
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
whitetrash
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BUDOS said:

Oldbear83 said:

FLBear5630 said:

Oldbear83 said:

FLBear5630 said:

J.R. said:

FLBear5630 said:

Doc Holliday said:

FLBear5630 said:

Doc Holliday said:

RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

boognish_bear said:



So the average household in the U.S. is $333,000+ in debt? I think it is substantial but am very skeptical about this number. I don't think it is near that high.

I was thinking it should be much higher

Depends on if housing is included. If yes, I agree may be higher. If not, that seems too high.

It could be the average, but it could easily double in the next decade.

For young adults buying their first cars, homes and maintaining even low middle class lifestyle, there's no way their mortgage balance alone isn't above $400k. The average home price is $512k and IF they put down 20% they will owe about $410k. Add in student loans, cars and cost of living...I could easily see $600k or so in debt being the norm.



Debt is a way of life. You will see more people cash flowing their lives rather than paying things off. For the 80% there is no getting around it. The goal will be getting everything paid off by 72, which will be the new retirement age.

It is not what Dave Ramsey and the financial conservatives like, but there comes a time when how much of your life do you do nothing but pay to have no debt? So your ratios are good? But, there is really no way around it when you crunch the numbers.

(I am not the best one to discuss this with. I watched my Mom have her hot water heater on a timer and not spend a dime so she would have no debt and she could travel. Died at 63, never took one trip. A life of not even being able to take a hot shower on demand. So, I get the financial responsibility thing, but those hospice visits will always push me to do things with my kids...)

Debt is a killer! I don't do much leverage(only for multi-family as they are large assets). I know I could make more $ levering some thing up, but I just don't like debt and like to sleep well. I have explained this to my young adult kids....one gets it, one doesn't.


Crunch the numbers you put out. How do you do that, raise a family and not have debt? I know you dont agree with debt, but if is going to be a bigger part of Life going forward. Until that gap you mention narrows, stable income is going to be more important. Or you will have people delaying life, creating perpetual teenagers

The problem most people have with debt, is that they take on debt without thinking about it, much less having a serious plan for handling that debt.

Properly planned, a house is a solid investment. Properly planned, cars or even college can make sense. But spur of the moment decisions are often bad ideas, and a lack of basic financial literacy is jumping out of the plane not knowing if what you strapped on your back is a parachute, a backpack with books in it, or a backpack with a 'so long, sucker' note in it.


I am not Talking spur of the moment. Look at the categories mentioned- house, car, education, and even health care. They are all investments. Debt has to serve a purpose to be worth doing. At different stages of our lives, different areas of debt become worth it.

The days of saving for a car cash are quickly becoming unrealistic. Housing, education, and even required health are going to require time. Stable Revenue/income to accomplish is becoming more important than saving a lump sum, as the needed lump sum is becoming larger. I think we are seeing issues as people are not wanting to work in those types of jobs like our parents, grandparents did. How many of the young having trouble getting housing will actually do 30 year grind it takes to pay off a mortgage? 200k or 400k?

I agree on debt having to be planned, but housing, health, education, transportation are all basic items that should increase earning capacity, not limit. If we are not going to have Government paid health or education and be free market, debt is a fact of life.


I agree. A big problem is that many people do take on debt without thinking.

Agreed, and even these "smaller" amounts add up in multiple ways.
As it relates to health insurance, why not examine how the better run national programs do it, such as Norway, Denmark and Sweden and start tweaking ours based on that research?

The better run national programs all start with a small population that has a reasonably prosperous median income and is 80-90% ethnically homogenous.
boognish_bear
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boognish_bear
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Realitybites
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boognish_bear said:



A year from now from now people are going to be shocked how little stimulus a 100 basis point cut gives the housing market.
boognish_bear
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william
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who will win???

the delta of (tax cuts and 100% expensing, and AI prod gains) / ( AI job losses + some residual tariff impact and the need for an at least a stabile DXY during the year and a stable USD / JPY )........

- UF

D!

arbyscoin - the only crypto you can eat....
william
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Derived Alpha / Leverage Economics.

DALE.

- UF

D!
arbyscoin - the only crypto you can eat....
boognish_bear
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I guess not everyone out there is hurting financially...

BigGameBaylorBear
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boognish_bear said:

I guess not everyone out there is hurting financially...




We're certainly living in a "K-shaped" economy
Sic 'em Bears and Go Birds
boognish_bear
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boognish_bear
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Pretty damn funny

boognish_bear
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BUDOS
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I agree with what he said. I think too many on the far left and far right need to do it for our own country, A democratic republic is not an authoritarian republic.
Jacques Strap
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Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model updated after today's unemployment report

Latest estimate: 5.1 percent January 09, 2026

Quote:

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2025 is 5.1 percent on January 9, down from 5.4 percent on January 8. After this morning's releases from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real residential investment growth decreased from 1.5 percent to -5.8 percent.

BUDOS
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Oldbear83 said:

BUDOS said:

Oldbear83 said:

FLBear5630 said:

Oldbear83 said:

FLBear5630 said:

J.R. said:

FLBear5630 said:

Doc Holliday said:

FLBear5630 said:

Doc Holliday said:

RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

boognish_bear said:



So the average household in the U.S. is $333,000+ in debt? I think it is substantial but am very skeptical about this number. I don't think it is near that high.

I was thinking it should be much higher

Depends on if housing is included. If yes, I agree may be higher. If not, that seems too high.

It could be the average, but it could easily double in the next decade.

For young adults buying their first cars, homes and maintaining even low middle class lifestyle, there's no way their mortgage balance alone isn't above $400k. The average home price is $512k and IF they put down 20% they will owe about $410k. Add in student loans, cars and cost of living...I could easily see $600k or so in debt being the norm.



Debt is a way of life. You will see more people cash flowing their lives rather than paying things off. For the 80% there is no getting around it. The goal will be getting everything paid off by 72, which will be the new retirement age.

It is not what Dave Ramsey and the financial conservatives like, but there comes a time when how much of your life do you do nothing but pay to have no debt? So your ratios are good? But, there is really no way around it when you crunch the numbers.

(I am not the best one to discuss this with. I watched my Mom have her hot water heater on a timer and not spend a dime so she would have no debt and she could travel. Died at 63, never took one trip. A life of not even being able to take a hot shower on demand. So, I get the financial responsibility thing, but those hospice visits will always push me to do things with my kids...)

Debt is a killer! I don't do much leverage(only for multi-family as they are large assets). I know I could make more $ levering some thing up, but I just don't like debt and like to sleep well. I have explained this to my young adult kids....one gets it, one doesn't.


Crunch the numbers you put out. How do you do that, raise a family and not have debt? I know you dont agree with debt, but if is going to be a bigger part of Life going forward. Until that gap you mention narrows, stable income is going to be more important. Or you will have people delaying life, creating perpetual teenagers

The problem most people have with debt, is that they take on debt without thinking about it, much less having a serious plan for handling that debt.

Properly planned, a house is a solid investment. Properly planned, cars or even college can make sense. But spur of the moment decisions are often bad ideas, and a lack of basic financial literacy is jumping out of the plane not knowing if what you strapped on your back is a parachute, a backpack with books in it, or a backpack with a 'so long, sucker' note in it.


I am not Talking spur of the moment. Look at the categories mentioned- house, car, education, and even health care. They are all investments. Debt has to serve a purpose to be worth doing. At different stages of our lives, different areas of debt become worth it.

The days of saving for a car cash are quickly becoming unrealistic. Housing, education, and even required health are going to require time. Stable Revenue/income to accomplish is becoming more important than saving a lump sum, as the needed lump sum is becoming larger. I think we are seeing issues as people are not wanting to work in those types of jobs like our parents, grandparents did. How many of the young having trouble getting housing will actually do 30 year grind it takes to pay off a mortgage? 200k or 400k?

I agree on debt having to be planned, but housing, health, education, transportation are all basic items that should increase earning capacity, not limit. If we are not going to have Government paid health or education and be free market, debt is a fact of life.


I agree. A big problem is that many people do take on debt without thinking.

Agreed, and even these "smaller" amounts add up in multiple ways.
As it relates to health insurance, why not examine how the better run national programs do it, such as Norway, Denmark and Sweden and start tweaking ours based on that research?

In a word, scale. There is a good reason only small countries seem to make a government-run program anything but worse than what it tried to fix.

I think that is a good reason, at least to a point. There are some countries who have both good quality national health insurance and sizable populations, such as Australia, Germany, United Kingdom and Canada. It would seem that we would be able to at least analyze and scale up some aspects of such complex programs. I just don't buy that we can't do better. To me it is that we refuse to insist that we do better. This is the USA, which, even today, continues to be a leader in innovation; however it is recognized that the current political polarization situation is harming us in multiple ways.
william
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boognish_bear said:



attaboy big john...........

- UF

D!

{ sipping coffee }

{ eating myoofin }

Go Bears!!

arbyscoin - the only crypto you can eat....
 
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