ShooterTX said:

---

DancinBear09 said:

---

I think it's going to be really, really bad.

Couple scenarios:

1) Russia smashes Ukrainian infrastructure (political, military) and chooses to maintain a military presence. Then an insurgency develops a la Iraq for us. Quagmire. Massive loss of life.

2) Russia smashes and gets to the negotiating table. Withdraws. Ukraine under Russian umbrella. Insurgency develops. Less loss of life.

---

If Russia occupied Ukraine, it will be with brutality unknown in Iraq or Afghanistan. He won't attempt to create a locally lead police force, democracy and economy. There will be zero liberty. It will be just like it was in the Soviet days.
One thing that worked in those days was the ability to squash ALL uprisings.
It is foolish to try and compare Iraq to Ukraine. The levels of control and brutality will be unlike anything seen by Americans. Anyone who wants individual liberty in Ukraine has either fled, or is in their car right now trying to get to Poland. There won't be anyone left behind to create anything resembling an armed resistance.

If you were correct, then Crimea would be a quagmire for Russia.. which has not happened.

---

DancinBear09 said:

---

ShooterTX said:

---

DancinBear09 said:

---

I think it's going to be really, really bad.

Couple scenarios:

1) Russia smashes Ukrainian infrastructure (political, military) and chooses to maintain a military presence. Then an insurgency develops a la Iraq for us. Quagmire. Massive loss of life.

2) Russia smashes and gets to the negotiating table. Withdraws. Ukraine under Russian umbrella. Insurgency develops. Less loss of life.

---

If Russia occupied Ukraine, it will be with brutality unknown in Iraq or Afghanistan. He won't attempt to create a locally lead police force, democracy and economy. There will be zero liberty. It will be just like it was in the Soviet days.
One thing that worked in those days was the ability to squash ALL uprisings.
It is foolish to try and compare Iraq to Ukraine. The levels of control and brutality will be unlike anything seen by Americans. Anyone who wants individual liberty in Ukraine has either fled, or is in their car right now trying to get to Poland. There won't be anyone left behind to create anything resembling an armed resistance.

If you were correct, then Crimea would be a quagmire for Russia.. which has not happened.

---

The point I was making was that there would be the possibility of a long term insurgency that Russia would have to deal with, much like we have had to deal with in Iraq, no doubt the Russians will be extremely barbaric and will kill a whole lot more people than our military would have ever experienced. I think this will be unlike anything we have seen in a very long time.

---

#Ukraine update:
1. #Russia’s invasion has already taken longer & been costlier than #Putin expected. Almost certain his military & intel leaders knew this ahead of time but no one dared tell him his expectations were unrealistic (1of5)

— Marco Rubio (@marcorubio) February 24, 2022

Robert Wilson said:

---

william said:

---

well this will dispel the notion that putin is a strategic genius.

hope he and his fellow 15 kleptocrat billionares love moscow. billions to spend and abso****inglutely nowhere to go!!!!

what a ***ing moron.

- KKM

---

Guess that depends on how far he goes.

---

william said:

---

Robert Wilson said:

---

william said:

---

well this will dispel the notion that putin is a strategic genius.

hope he and his fellow 15 kleptocrat billionares love moscow. billions to spend and abso****inglutely nowhere to go!!!!

what a ***ing moron.

- KKM

---

Guess that depends on how far he goes.

---

already has and then some. and when the ukraines inflict some serious damage and the footage gets out the death toll rises, he is toast.

he made it personal - and then is just deluded abt the fall of the USSR. it fell b/c of economic collapse. plain and simple, and his oil money wont last forever.

he made russia a pariah.

and xi isn't much smarter.

---

Robert Wilson said:

---

william said:

---

Robert Wilson said:

---

william said:

---

well this will dispel the notion that putin is a strategic genius.

hope he and his fellow 15 kleptocrat billionares love moscow. billions to spend and abso****inglutely nowhere to go!!!!

what a ***ing moron.

- KKM

---

Guess that depends on how far he goes.

---

already has and then some. and when the ukraines inflict some serious damage and the footage gets out the death toll rises, he is toast.

he made it personal - and then is just deluded abt the fall of the USSR. it fell b/c of economic collapse. plain and simple, and his oil money wont last forever.

he made russia a pariah.

and xi isn't much smarter.

---

Agree that's the ultimate landing point of all this. Question is how much time, money, and death does it take to get there.

1992, Russia's population peaked at 148M. Today, it's 145M. Meanwhile, US population has grown 75M. Meanwhile, Nigerian population has grown 114M (or 79% of Russia). Putin is trying to reclaim Soviet influence by expansion because otherwise Russia is inexorably in decline. He thinks this is a "have to" move, and the time to do it is now while the US is immersed in utter silliness and self-inflicted division.

---

Doc Holliday said:

---

HuMcK said:

---

Doc Holliday said:

---

BearFan33 said:

---

Although appeasement has been a historical mistake, I don't think this turns into WW3.

If China starts aggressively attacking its neighbors it would be appropriate to revisit the WW3 question.

Ukraine may go relatively quick, but I have read that anyone with a complaint against Russia may have already flocked there to disrupt/stymie Russia's plan. If Russia takes over and is a prolonged occupying force, things could get ugly.

---

China is absolutely going to take advantage of Russia-Ukraine and the current administration.

There's already reports of Chinese military aircraft in Taiwan.

---

The current admin isn't the one that handed leadership of the TPP (a deal originally designed to constrain China) over to China, and boy wouldn't that be a pretty useful tool to have right about now or at any point during the failed trade war we got nothing out of...

---

Naive.

I'm not a big Shapiro fan, but he's right.

The West is consistently under the grave misimpression that other countries think like we do. Thus, because we have become materialists above all else, if we levy sanctions and threaten lifestyle harm, other countries will cave. This is parochial to the point of absurdity.

— Ben Shapiro (@benshapiro) February 24, 2022

---

william said:

---

putin's only move now is to pull back to donetsk / luhansk and then appeal for a strategic truce.

- KKM

---

RMF5630 said:

---

KOKQB70 said:

---

How long will this last, # people killed, and what will Biden do?

---

Ask Goldmind, Mothra and the ilk, after all it is all a bluff and really doesn't matter anyway. It is only Ukraine, afterall. Any agreements in writing or implied weren't binding. Isn't that a nice logo to live by!

---

midgett said:

---

I'm (cough!) confident that NATO is prepared for this situation (cough! choke!). What the heck?

---

HuMcK said:

---

Doc Holliday said:

---

BearFan33 said:

---

Although appeasement has been a historical mistake, I don't think this turns into WW3.

If China starts aggressively attacking its neighbors it would be appropriate to revisit the WW3 question.

Ukraine may go relatively quick, but I have read that anyone with a complaint against Russia may have already flocked there to disrupt/stymie Russia's plan. If Russia takes over and is a prolonged occupying force, things could get ugly.

---

China is absolutely going to take advantage of Russia-Ukraine and the current administration.

There's already reports of Chinese military aircraft in Taiwan.

---

The current admin isn't the one that handed leadership of the TPP (a deal originally designed to constrain China) over to China, and boy wouldn't that be a pretty useful tool to have right about now or at any point during the failed trade war we got nothing out of...

---

HuMcK said:

---

Robert Wilson said:

---

william said:

---

Robert Wilson said:

---

william said:

---

well this will dispel the notion that putin is a strategic genius.

hope he and his fellow 15 kleptocrat billionares love moscow. billions to spend and abso****inglutely nowhere to go!!!!

what a ***ing moron.

- KKM

---

Guess that depends on how far he goes.

---

already has and then some. and when the ukraines inflict some serious damage and the footage gets out the death toll rises, he is toast.

he made it personal - and then is just deluded abt the fall of the USSR. it fell b/c of economic collapse. plain and simple, and his oil money wont last forever.

he made russia a pariah.

and xi isn't much smarter.

---

Agree that's the ultimate landing point of all this. Question is how much time, money, and death does it take to get there.

1992, Russia's population peaked at 148M. Today, it's 145M. Meanwhile, US population has grown 75M. Meanwhile, Nigerian population has grown 114M (or 79% of Russia). Putin is trying to reclaim Soviet influence by expansion because otherwise Russia is inexorably in decline. He thinks this is a "have to" move, and the time to do it is now while the US is immersed in utter silliness and self-inflicted division.

---

Better believe they are helping that along as much as they can. Anybody think the attempt at astroturfing trucker convoys timed to coincide so well with Putin's invasion was just coincidence?

---

Jack Bauer said:

---

midgett said:

---

I'm (cough!) confident that NATO is prepared for this situation (cough! choke!). What the heck?

---

I think the manbun really makes Putin quiver in his boots.

How about - "NATO: Don't f*** with our allies or we will make you suffer for decades!"

---

EatMoreSalmon said:

---

HuMcK said:

---

Doc Holliday said:

---

BearFan33 said:

---

Although appeasement has been a historical mistake, I don't think this turns into WW3.

If China starts aggressively attacking its neighbors it would be appropriate to revisit the WW3 question.

Ukraine may go relatively quick, but I have read that anyone with a complaint against Russia may have already flocked there to disrupt/stymie Russia's plan. If Russia takes over and is a prolonged occupying force, things could get ugly.

---

China is absolutely going to take advantage of Russia-Ukraine and the current administration.

There's already reports of Chinese military aircraft in Taiwan.

---

The current admin isn't the one that handed leadership of the TPP (a deal originally designed to constrain China) over to China, and boy wouldn't that be a pretty useful tool to have right about now or at any point during the failed trade war we got nothing out of...

---

I'm sorry, but your words are like a piece of yellowed paper- no legs to stand on, will fall flat, and will blow away in the next wind or burn to ash in the next fire.

---

HuMcK said:

---

EatMoreSalmon said:

---

HuMcK said:

---

Doc Holliday said:

---

BearFan33 said:

---

Although appeasement has been a historical mistake, I don't think this turns into WW3.

If China starts aggressively attacking its neighbors it would be appropriate to revisit the WW3 question.

Ukraine may go relatively quick, but I have read that anyone with a complaint against Russia may have already flocked there to disrupt/stymie Russia's plan. If Russia takes over and is a prolonged occupying force, things could get ugly.

---

China is absolutely going to take advantage of Russia-Ukraine and the current administration.

There's already reports of Chinese military aircraft in Taiwan.

---

The current admin isn't the one that handed leadership of the TPP (a deal originally designed to constrain China) over to China, and boy wouldn't that be a pretty useful tool to have right about now or at any point during the failed trade war we got nothing out of...

---

I'm sorry, but your words are like a piece of yellowed paper- no legs to stand on, will fall flat, and will blow away in the next wind or burn to ash in the next fire.

---

I wish there was some substance in your post to make sense out of, but that's asking too much I guess.

---

Jack Bauer said:

---

Putin -

"I see a white solider, a black soldier, a female solider, a gay soldier, one that is transgender, one that is non-binary and one that is disabled. RETREAT!!!!!!!!"

---

MSNBC guest just said Ukrainians can’t find knee pads and it’s something “you need to shoot a gun.” pic.twitter.com/t1LZrmVZBj

— GrantB911 (@GrantB911) February 24, 2022

Osodecentx said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

KOKQB70 said:

---

How long will this last, # people killed, and what will Biden do?

---

Ask Goldmind, Mothra and the ilk, after all it is all a bluff and really doesn't matter anyway. It is only Ukraine, afterall. Any agreements in writing or implied weren't binding. Isn't that a nice logo to live by!

---

Should we send troops to Ukraine? Tactical nukes? Be specific

---

ShooterTX said:

---

DancinBear09 said:

---

ShooterTX said:

---

DancinBear09 said:

---

I think it's going to be really, really bad.

Couple scenarios:

1) Russia smashes Ukrainian infrastructure (political, military) and chooses to maintain a military presence. Then an insurgency develops a la Iraq for us. Quagmire. Massive loss of life.

2) Russia smashes and gets to the negotiating table. Withdraws. Ukraine under Russian umbrella. Insurgency develops. Less loss of life.

---

If Russia occupied Ukraine, it will be with brutality unknown in Iraq or Afghanistan. He won't attempt to create a locally lead police force, democracy and economy. There will be zero liberty. It will be just like it was in the Soviet days.
One thing that worked in those days was the ability to squash ALL uprisings.
It is foolish to try and compare Iraq to Ukraine. The levels of control and brutality will be unlike anything seen by Americans. Anyone who wants individual liberty in Ukraine has either fled, or is in their car right now trying to get to Poland. There won't be anyone left behind to create anything resembling an armed resistance.

If you were correct, then Crimea would be a quagmire for Russia.. which has not happened.

---

The point I was making was that there would be the possibility of a long term insurgency that Russia would have to deal with, much like we have had to deal with in Iraq, no doubt the Russians will be extremely barbaric and will kill a whole lot more people than our military would have ever experienced. I think this will be unlike anything we have seen in a very long time.

---

And the point in making is that there is almost no chance of a longterm insurgency, because the Russians will immediately disarm and slaughter everyone who could remotely oppose them.
There is also a lack of fanatic motivation in Ukraine, which was created in Iraq by Islamic rhetoric. Ukrainian independence is not enough of a reward to entice people to engage in suicide attacks.
Ukraine will not be like Iraq, or like Afghanistan in the 80s. It will not be a holy war. Ukrainians are too smart to kill themselves in a hopeless cause, when they can just flee to Poland and live a good life.

Apples and oranges

---