Recession

254,072 Views | 2720 Replies | Last: 4 min ago by Realitybites
whiterock
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FLBear5630 said:

There is a lot of short term proclamations.
They are statements of historical fact.

You really think the status quo is the way it will always be.
Of course not. Status quo is hard to change. Sometimes it takes a real tough SOB to get it done.

I have no issues with the China moves. Alienating Europe is where I have an issue. When we got hit in 911, they were there. One thing to guilt them into paying more. Other thing to threaten and alienating when the other option is China. There seems to be no thought out plan here no matter how much 3D chess you say Trump is playing.
Why is it not a case of Europe alienating us? We didn't get angry because they didn't participate. We knew ahead of time they did not have the resources to participate (for anything other than a token show of the flag). We got angry because several of them refused to let us use bases and/or refused overflight. We spend billions to defend them and they nitipick us like that on something that is manifestly national interest to us? (and where they will collaterally benefit from our actions.....)
Screw. Them.
Trump is exactly right to stomp on their toes over that. We don't have a million-strong Soviet army poised in the Fulda Gap. That gives us a lot more latitude to speak frankly about us providing them security to build a robust welfare state.

The future is being integrated, not being a one off.
Actually, no. The future is national interest. Globalism went too far. Pendulum is swinging back toward the middle.

National interest is always there.

Ex: if we pull out of Nato, then some number of years/decades down the road a rejuvenated Russia invades.....we will be there to help defend Europe. Not because of any alliance obligation. Because it's not in our interests for Russia to dominate Europe and have naval bases in France & Spain from which they can significantly more easily threaten our trade routes.

National interest is always there.
Treaty or not.
And, right now, our national interest is to:
1) discontinue the primary burden of defending Europe
2) force Europe to pay more for a greater burden of their own defense
3) redeploy a greater percentage of our assets to Asia, to counter the rise of China
4) economic & trade changes, etc..........

You've got to put the globalist model back in the drawer. It's dead. It's not coming back. We will still trade. Indeed, since we are the only state with a global navy, we will trade like hell. We're just not gonna pay the cost of defending everyone else's trade any more. (except in cases where it might be in our national interest to do so.)

FLBear5630
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I get what you are saying and get it with a 33T debt.

Then how do we reconcile a 2B a day war against Iran that the information is sketchy on whether they were an immediate threat? We could have done a Ukraine, sell the IDF the weapons and have at it.

Sorry, there is no comprehensive plan. On one hand we do things for the debt, IT HAS TO BE DONE. Liberal Dem spending. Then, we go out and drop 2B a day on Iran. We raise the Defense budget to 1.5T.


So, I get your talking point answers, but it doesn't reconcile. We went to war with Iran not because we had to but because Israel did and it took the heat off Trump for Epstein, which cost Bondi her job to make sure she doesn't testify before Congress.

Sorry, not buying it.

I want to qualify, based on recent posts. I don't agree with how some policies are being carried out or the rhetoric. I will vote next election accordingly. I do not support anyone attacking anyone in our Government. You want to disagree over policy, great. That is what being an American is about. DO NOT put me in with the scum that result to violence or say I condone it. THAT IS PATENTLY FALSE.
boognish_bear
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RD2WINAGNBEAR86
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boognish_bear said:



This must be fake news! Donald Trump tells us every single day that "we have the hottest country in the world!" And also that we have defeated Iran.

MISSION ACCOMPLISHED 2.0

I sure liked Teddy Roosevelt's approach, - "Speak softly and carry a big stick."
Call it a tax, the people are outraged! Call it a tariff, the people get out their checkbooks and wave their American flags!!!
boognish_bear
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RD2WINAGNBEAR86
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FLBear5630 said:

I get what you are saying and get it with a 33T debt.



Actually now over $39 trillion but who's counting? A $trillion here. A $trillion there. Absolutely ZERO urgency from our D.C. politicians to fix it.
Call it a tax, the people are outraged! Call it a tariff, the people get out their checkbooks and wave their American flags!!!
Waco1947
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boognish_bear said:



What does this mean?
Waco1947
boognish_bear
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RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

FLBear5630 said:

I get what you are saying and get it with a 33T debt.



Actually now over $39 trillion but who's counting? A $trillion here. A $trillion there. Absolutely ZERO urgency from our D.C. politicians to fix it.


Does asking us to write a check count as trying to fix it?

D. C. Bear
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boognish_bear said:

RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

FLBear5630 said:

I get what you are saying and get it with a 33T debt.



Actually now over $39 trillion but who's counting? A $trillion here. A $trillion there. Absolutely ZERO urgency from our D.C. politicians to fix it.


Does asking us to write a check count as trying to fix it?




This has been a thing for many years.
I wonder how much it brings in.
Jack Bauer
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RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

boognish_bear said:



This must be fake news! Donald Trump tells us every single day that "we have the hottest country in the world!" And also that we have defeated Iran.

MISSION ACCOMPLISHED 2.0

I sure liked Teddy Roosevelt's approach, - "Speak softly and carry a big stick."


Don't we have $18TRILLION in tariffs somewhere?
RD2WINAGNBEAR86
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Jack Bauer said:

RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

boognish_bear said:



This must be fake news! Donald Trump tells us every single day that "we have the hottest country in the world!" And also that we have defeated Iran.

MISSION ACCOMPLISHED 2.0

I sure liked Teddy Roosevelt's approach, - "Speak softly and carry a big stick."


Don't we have $18TRILLION in tariffs somewhere?

No, it is $18 trillion of pledges, IOUs, and "goodwill" of countries that Trump either **** on or threatened. Isn't there a old saying about counting your chickens?

" The world has never seen anything like it before!!!". Blah..............blah..........blah!!
Call it a tax, the people are outraged! Call it a tariff, the people get out their checkbooks and wave their American flags!!!
FLBear5630
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This is what Trump invested in last minth.

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/trump-bought-least-51-million-bonds-march-disclosure-shows-2026-04-25/
J.R.
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FLBear5630 said:

This is what Trump invested in last minth.

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/trump-bought-least-51-million-bonds-march-disclosure-shows-2026-04-25/

No conflict of interest there! Lol. This heist has just become laughable. Let's check out the !st Grifting Family's trades . You thinkJared isn't trading out of his fSaudi Soveirgn Wealth Fund with what he knows, then you are foolish MAGAs. It just puzzles me why "we"let them get away with it.
boognish_bear
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I can believe it

whiterock
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J.R. said:

FLBear5630 said:

This is what Trump invested in last minth.

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/trump-bought-least-51-million-bonds-march-disclosure-shows-2026-04-25/

No conflict of interest there! Lol. This heist has just become laughable. Let's check out the !st Grifting Family's trades . You thinkJared isn't trading out of his fSaudi Soveirgn Wealth Fund with what he knows, then you are foolish MAGAs. It just puzzles me why "we"let them get away with it.

from the link: "Most of the assets disclosed were municipal bonds issued by states, counties, school districts and other entities with ties to government agencies or public-private partnerships."

So he bought a bunch of public debt (likely anticipating that interest rates would be falling). And that makes him a crook?
FLBear5630
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What else causes bond interest to rise. Not just inflation.

When you cant sell the debt, the return goes up. Our debt, Iran war impact on petrodollar and political instability is making the US not as attractive.

So why is our POTUS going bonds versus stocks? Thought we were in a golden age, why is he putting his money in a safe haven?
whiterock
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FLBear5630 said:

What else causes bond interest to rise. Not just inflation.

When you cant sell the debt, the return goes up. Our debt, Iran war impact on petrodollar and political instability is making the US not as attractive.

So why is our POTUS going bonds versus stocks? Thought we were in a golden age, why is he putting his money in a safe haven?

I don't think that's the way it works.

If you anticipate interest rate increases, you would demand a discount on purchase of an existing bond (to guarantee yield).
If you anticipate interest rate declines, you would purchase existing bonds at par (planning for your yield to grow).
You make money either way, as long as you don't overpay for the bond.....

Dude is a billionaire. His money has to be invested somewhere This tranche, other than its sheer size, is completely unremarkable. The assets involved are some of the safest, least controversial investments one could make. Fixed return no matter what policies he might pursue in his day job. More to the point, his investments are managed by the Trump Organization, which has run by his kids since 2016. He's not personally making any of these investments. So the news here should properly be titled: "Rich man's money managers invest conservatively."

Has it occurred to you that your animus toward the man has caused you to rather substantially overstate things here? I mean, if it was all put in CDs, would accuse him of trying to take over the banking system?


FLBear5630
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I am not the only one. Also, it is not Trump, you miss that. Trump is Trump, known Trump since 70's. True with he would act more Presidential and treat allies better, he is who he is.

My problem is who he surrounded himself with this tine. Mnuchen at Treasury, ok. He was good. Soros hatchetman Bessent? Pompeo at CIA or SecDef, ok. Real man Hegseth? Kelly, ok. Miller? It goes on.

I see Trump investing in Bonds, scares me. He knows he is tanking the economy and he is protecting his money He knows he screwed the Petrodollar. That scares me.

Col Doug MacGregor podcast is interesting. I am sure naturally he is totally wrong. But know the opposing view that is more prevalent than you may believe.

whiterock
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FLBear5630 said:

I am not the only one. Also, it is not Trump, you miss that. Trump is Trump, known Trump since 70's. True with he would act more Presidential and treat allies better, he is who he is.

My problem is who he surrounded himself with this tine. Mnuchen at Treasury, ok. He was good. Soros hatchetman Bessent? Pompeo at CIA or SecDef, ok. Real man Hegseth? Kelly, ok. Miller? It goes on.

I see Trump investing in Bonds, scares me. He knows he is tanking the economy and he is protecting his money He knows he screwed the Petrodollar. That scares me.

Col Doug MacGregor podcast is interesting. I am sure naturally he is totally wrong. But know the opposing view that is more prevalent than you may believe.



LOL you start uttering crackpottery then post a video from the poster boy for crackpottery as supporting documentation? I mean, who's next on your podcast stream...Candace?
Realitybites
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RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

boognish_bear said:



This must be fake news! Donald Trump tells us every single day that "we have the hottest country in the world!" And also that we have defeated Iran.

MISSION ACCOMPLISHED 2.0

I sure liked Teddy Roosevelt's approach, - "Speak softly and carry a big stick."


As opposed to scream loudly and carry a tiny twig.
Realitybites
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FLBear5630 said:

I see Trump investing in Bonds, scares me. He knows he is tanking the economy and he is protecting his money He knows he screwed the Petrodollar.


I don't think any bond denominated in USD will survive the death of the petrodollar. That's why my personal treasury exposure is all < 7 years with an average duration of 5. I wouldn't buy 30 year US denominated debt with someone else's money. But without knowing what time to maturity he is buying, it's not really possible to generalize that investment to the future of the Petrodollar (which I agree looks very grim but whether that grim arrives within 5 years or 30 is impossible to know).

Now if he's 100% into 0-3 month T-Bills...that would be concerning.

My allergy to the 30 year bond, aside from perpetual overspending and a now uncontrollable debt, is this demographic truth. 30 years from now, all the Boomers will be gone. 30 years from now, a chunk of Gen X will be gone. The youngest Gen Xers in 30 years will be 76. Essentially the political process will be 100% driven by people who have no personal memory of how great America used to be when it was free, prosperous, and had social cohesion. There are some younger posters here like Barbearian who have figured things out, which is good. But every generational cohort except for Gen X voted democrat in 2024. Whatever exists on the map under the name United States of America in 30 years will be nothing like what we remember.

Quote:

Col Doug MacGregor podcast is interesting.


Everyone should listen to what he puts out. Its excellent material, and as a Colonel who commanded armor in Iraq, he knows what he's talking about.
whiterock
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Realitybites said:

FLBear5630 said:

I see Trump investing in Bonds, scares me. He knows he is tanking the economy and he is protecting his money He knows he screwed the Petrodollar.


I don't think any bond denominated in USD will survive the death of the petrodollar. That's why my personal treasury exposure is all < 7 years with an average duration of 5. I wouldn't buy 30 year US denominated debt with someone else's money. But without knowing what time to maturity he is buying, it's not really possible to generalize that investment to the future of the Petrodollar (which I agree looks very grim but whether that grim arrives within 5 years or 30 is impossible to know).

Now if he's 100% into 0-3 month T-Bills...that would be concerning.

My allergy to the 30 year bond, aside from perpetual overspending and a now uncontrollable debt, is this demographic truth. 30 years from now, all the Boomers will be gone. 30 years from now, a chunk of Gen X will be gone. The youngest Gen Xers in 30 years will be 76. Essentially the political process will be 100% driven by people who have no personal memory of how great America used to be when it was free, prosperous, and had social cohesion. There are some younger posters here like Barbearian who have figured things out, which is good. But every generational cohort except for Gen X voted democrat in 2024. Whatever exists on the map under the name United States of America in 30 years will be nothing like what we remember.

Quote:

Col Doug MacGregor podcast is interesting.


Everyone should listen to what he puts out. Its excellent material, and as a Colonel who commanded armor in Iraq, he knows what he's talking about.

no wonder you are so misguided. McGregor is the Candace Owens of geopolitics.
FLBear5630
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Right on schedule...

As I said, you would not agree but the position is out there and prevalent.

I was going to bring up Fishman and Choke Points to support your argument, but I am not sure you are mature enough to handle it.
FLBear5630
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UAE to withdraw from OPEC oil cartel


Interesting. Where are they going? Opportunity or Risk? Both?

Petro-dollar

or

Petro-yen...

Could be a policy win for Trump or a challenge going forward. Thoughts?

WR, we know your position. This is a "yeah" Trump moment. No need for an economics lesson... : )
J.R.
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FLBear5630 said:

UAE to withdraw from OPEC oil cartel


Interesting. Where are they going? Opportunity or Risk? Both?

Petro-dollar

or

Petro-yen...

Could be a policy win for Trump or a challenge going forward. Thoughts?

WR, we know your position. This is a "yeah" Trump moment. No need for an economics lesson... : )

man, this is gonna be really interesting. No idea what to expect. Just know they are the 3rd largest producer in the gulf. They said they quit as one of the members (Iran) bombed them.
whiterock
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The Gulf Arab states are all profoundly wealthy. No longer have the same needs. UAE has no need to worry about either OPEC or Hormuz. It has frontage on BOTH the PG and the Indian Ocean (via Gulf of Oman. It will be able leverage that. Pipelines for itself and neighbors = more security for its own exports and leverage with everyone else. Saudi has pipelines going east to afford it similar insulation. Time to UAE to act on its own interests.

In playing its Hormuz card (unwisely) Iran has sharply reduced the value of it. Highest value imports will leave the are in pipelines. Hormuz will be a conduit for the bulky lower-value stuff.

The age of national interest is here.

BigGameBaylorBear
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Hey Oil folk, what are the implications of UAE leaving OPEC?
Sic 'em Bears and Go Birds
FLBear5630
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Smart move by UAE. We should be moving immediately to work with them on maintaining their Independence and providing stability. Maybe a deal to keep the dollar as the transaction currency.

Love the multiple access points, maybe help them with the Houthis, if we are going to bomb anyway...
Oldbear83
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I was under the impression that President Trump has his assets in a family-managed trust.
whiterock
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FLBear5630
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I have no idea, that was published by the Office of Ethics. I found the selection interesting, considering the World condition.
FLBear5630
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whiterock said:



Ok, it makes sense now. Your Saudi!
HuMcK
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Waco1947 said:

boognish_bear said:



What does this mean?

He's proposing a tax break for investors.

When you sell a stock, you are taxed only on the capital gain (that's the sale price, minus the "cost basis", which is what you bought it for). So say you bought a stock for $100, then sold it more than a year later for $110, you would pay a 15% tax on that $10 gain.

Cruz wants to index the cost basis to inflation so it would gradually raise over time. Back to that $100 stock purchase, if that value gets pegged to inflation somehow and now the basis is $105, when you sell for $110 you would now pay taxes on only $5 of gains instead of the $10 on the previous scenario (tax bill goes down from $1.50 to $.75).

Most middle class folks have their investments in retirement vehicles, where tax rules are different and capital gains shouldn't apply, so this proposal is really aimed at benefiting higher net worth individuals than the average working class.
FLBear5630
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HuMcK said:

Waco1947 said:

boognish_bear said:



What does this mean?

He's proposing a tax break for investors.

When you sell a stock, you are taxed only on the capital gain (that's the sale price, minus the "cost basis", which is what you bought it for). So say you bought a stock for $100, then sold it more than a year later for $110, you would pay a 15% tax on that $10 gain.

Cruz wants to index the cost basis to inflation so it would gradually raise over time. Back to that $100 stock purchase, if that value gets pegged to inflation somehow and now the basis is $105, when you sell for $110 you would now pay taxes on only $5 of gains instead of the $10 on the previous scenario (tax bill goes down from $1.50 to $.75).

Most middle class folks have their investments in retirement vehicles, where tax rules are different and capital gains shouldn't apply, so this proposal is really aimed at benefiting higher net worth individuals than the average working class.

Maybe those in Congress making a killing...
boognish_bear
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