speaking of inflation. Back to the US for grand baby birth (#1) for a few weeks. I don't eat fast food except I will have a whataburger and an In and Out once a year. When I got back, I had no food, so I figured no Whataburgers or In and Out in Thailand. Went through the WB drive thru and had 1 double Whataburger Jr. with cheese and 1 small fry. $12. WTH happened?
Recession
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Last: 8 hrs ago by boognish_bear
J.R. said:
speaking of inflation. Back to the US for grand baby birth (#1) for a few weeks. I don't eat fast food except I will have a whataburger and an In and Out once a year. When I got back, I had no food, so I figured no Whataburgers or In and Out in Thailand. Went through the WB drive thru and had 1 double Whataburger Jr. with cheese and 1 small fry. $12. WTH happened?
It is called "winning" according to Trump...
FLBear5630 said:J.R. said:
speaking of inflation. Back to the US for grand baby birth (#1) for a few weeks. I don't eat fast food except I will have a whataburger and an In and Out once a year. When I got back, I had no food, so I figured no Whataburgers or In and Out in Thailand. Went through the WB drive thru and had 1 double Whataburger Jr. with cheese and 1 small fry. $12. WTH happened?
It is called "winning" according to Trump...
ready to get back to my "Street Food" lunch for $1.50 USD. On the daily
Doc Holliday said:BREAKING 🩸
— Ai Business Journal (@ArchieIntel) August 2, 2024
$2.9 TRILLION wiped out from stocks this morning due to fears of a global recession.
THE WORST DAY SINCE 2020 COVID CRASH pic.twitter.com/PIRTYxZpBeBREAKING: The Sahm rule that is designed to signal the start of a recession has officially been triggered.
— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) August 2, 2024
It reached 0.5%, as in, the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate is now 0.5% above the low in the last 12 months.BREAKING: The 10-Year Note Yield crashes over 15 basis points after a much weaker than expected July jobs report.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 2, 2024
The 10-year note yield yield is now down 55 BASIS POINTS in ONE WEEK.
For the first time since March 2020, bond markets are pricing-in a potential recession. pic.twitter.com/eW9YwEq4oQ
The s&p 500 has risen 43%, excluding dividends, since this post.
FLBear5630 said:J.R. said:
speaking of inflation. Back to the US for grand baby birth (#1) for a few weeks. I don't eat fast food except I will have a whataburger and an In and Out once a year. When I got back, I had no food, so I figured no Whataburgers or In and Out in Thailand. Went through the WB drive thru and had 1 double Whataburger Jr. with cheese and 1 small fry. $12. WTH happened?
It is called "winning" according to Trump...
SipEmBears said:FLBear5630 said:J.R. said:
speaking of inflation. Back to the US for grand baby birth (#1) for a few weeks. I don't eat fast food except I will have a whataburger and an In and Out once a year. When I got back, I had no food, so I figured no Whataburgers or In and Out in Thailand. Went through the WB drive thru and had 1 double Whataburger Jr. with cheese and 1 small fry. $12. WTH happened?
It is called "winning" according to Trump...
Do you numbers without COVID for both Biden and Trump.
Trump had to deal with shut down economy in 19/20. Biden had to deal with COVID aftermath in 21/22
Really hard to analyze those two administrations to get a good numbers. Trump was hitting stride in 18/19 and Biden was getting under control in 23/24. COVID f-ed up a lot. Polarization f-ing up more for both sides.
FLBear5630 said:SipEmBears said:FLBear5630 said:J.R. said:
speaking of inflation. Back to the US for grand baby birth (#1) for a few weeks. I don't eat fast food except I will have a whataburger and an In and Out once a year. When I got back, I had no food, so I figured no Whataburgers or In and Out in Thailand. Went through the WB drive thru and had 1 double Whataburger Jr. with cheese and 1 small fry. $12. WTH happened?
It is called "winning" according to Trump...
Do you numbers without COVID for both Biden and Trump.
Trump had to deal with shut down economy in 19/20. Biden had to deal with COVID aftermath in 21/22
Really hard to analyze those two administrations to get a good numbers. Trump was hitting stride in 18/19 and Biden was getting under control in 23/24. COVID f-ed up a lot. Polarization f-ing up more for both sides.
If interested ….
Yes. Adding Trump's second term through September 1, 2026 changes the comparison somewhat because his tariff policy has had a measurable inflationary effect.
One important data point first: as of September 1, the latest available CPI is July 2026. August CPI has not yet been released. CPI rose from 317.671 in January 2025 to 333.918 in July 2026, so consumer prices have increased about 5.1% since Trump returned to office. Year over year CPI is currently 3.4%.
Here is the counterfactual comparison I would use:
| Administration | Actual CPI increase | Normal inflation removed | Major external factors removed | Estimated inflation from administration policy |
||:|:|:|
| Trump 1, Jan 2017 to Jan 2021 | ~7.7% | ~8% baseline | COVID, Fed effects | ~0.5% to 1.0% |
| Biden, Jan 2021 to Jan 2025 | ~21.4% | ~8% baseline | COVID, Fed, Ukraine/global shocks | ~3% to 5% |
| Trump 2, Jan 2025 to Jul 2026 | ~5.1% | ~3.0% baseline | Fed, energy/global factors | ~0.8% to 1.4% so far |
I would therefore currently rank them:
Trump 1: lowest policy induced inflation
Trump 2: somewhat inflationary, primarily because of tariffs
Biden: clearly the most inflationary discretionary policy mix of the three periods
Trump 2 deserves a closer look
The 5.1% actual increase under Trump 2 is not the number I would attribute to him.
Had inflation simply continued at the Fed's approximate 2% target, prices would have risen about 3.0% over the roughly 18 months from January 2025 through July 2026.
That leaves roughly 2 percentage points of excess inflation above a 2% baseline.
I would divide that approximately like this:
Source of excess inflation since Jan. 2025 Approx. contribution
Trump tariffs/trade policy ~0.6 to 0.9%
Trump fiscal policy / 2025 reconciliation legislation ~0.2 to 0.4%
Immigration/labor supply and other Trump policies ~0.0 to 0.2%
Energy/global/commodity effects ~0.5 to 0.8%
Fed/monetary effects and other residual ~0.2 to 0.5%
Total excess over normal ~2.1%
There is considerably better evidence for the tariff number than for some of the other buckets.
CBO originally estimated Trump's 2025 tariff increases would raise inflation by an average of approximately 0.4 percentage points per year during 2025 and 2026.
By early 2026, after seeing how the policies actually developed, CBO concluded that tariffs were keeping inflation elevated. It estimated PCE inflation at 2.8% during 2025 and 2.7% during 2026, compared with its January 2025 forecast of only 2.1% for 2026 before Trump's new tariff regime.
CBO specifically says:
higher tariffs and increased aggregate demand from the 2025 reconciliation act
are jointly keeping inflation above the Fed's 2% objective.
That is important because it means Trump's second term policies are currently adding inflation, even after we strip out Fed policy and outside shocks.
But Trump's tariff situation changed substantially in 2026
There's another complication that shouldn't be ignored.
The Supreme Court struck down Trump's use of IEEPA authority for a large portion of the tariffs in February 2026. The administration subsequently imposed replacement tariffs under other authority, but CBO estimates those replacement tariffs generate substantially less revenue than the original regime.
So I would not extrapolate Trump's 2025 tariff inflation indefinitely. Some of that increase in the price level is permanent, but the inflation rate effect should fade unless tariffs continue rising.
The most revealing comparison
Instead of asking:
How much did prices increase while each man was president?
I'd ask:
How much additional inflation did each administration probably create beyond what would otherwise have occurred?
My current estimate would be:
Trump 1: +0.5 to +1.0 percentage point over four years
Primarily tariffs and some fiscal effects. Otherwise inflation policy was relatively benign.
Biden: +3 to +5 percentage points over four years
The largest mistake was the scale and timing of the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan when demand was already recovering and supply remained constrained. Other deficit financed spending probably contributed modestly.
Trump 2 through July 2026: +0.8 to +1.4 percentage points
The dominant factor is tariffs, followed by a smaller fiscal demand effect from the 2025 reconciliation legislation.
One thing I would change from our earlier conclusion
I previously characterized Trump 2 as running about 2.4% inflation based on January 2026 data. That is no longer an accurate picture as of September 2026.
The latest CPI is now 3.4% year over year, although core CPI is lower at 2.5%. Energy prices are a significant reason headline inflation is currently elevated.
So Trump's second term inflation record is worse today than it looked at the beginning of 2026, and his tariff policy deserves a meaningful part of the blame.
The broader conclusion nevertheless remains: Biden's discretionary policies appear to have contributed materially more cumulative inflation than either Trump administration so far. But Trump 2 is no longer a clean low inflation comparison because he deliberately chose a tariff policy that CBO and most economic models expected to raise the U.S. price level.
If Trump 2 continues through January 2029, the fair comparison will eventually be Trump 1 vs Biden vs Trump 2 using equal four year periods. Right now Trump 2 has only about 18 months of actual data, so I would not annualize the 0.8 to 1.4% estimate and assume the same rate continues.
SipEmBears said:FLBear5630 said:J.R. said:
speaking of inflation. Back to the US for grand baby birth (#1) for a few weeks. I don't eat fast food except I will have a whataburger and an In and Out once a year. When I got back, I had no food, so I figured no Whataburgers or In and Out in Thailand. Went through the WB drive thru and had 1 double Whataburger Jr. with cheese and 1 small fry. $12. WTH happened?
It is called "winning" according to Trump...
I would agree with that. Sadly, this is not that team.
Hopefully this report holds and does not get revised down later...
The US economy added a stronger-than-expected 162,000 jobs in August. https://t.co/MlXTl7LkxP pic.twitter.com/tE2zkAMPew
— CNN Breaking News (@cnnbrk) September 4, 2026
BREAKING: President Trump calls on the Fed to cut interest rates after the August jobs report nearly triples expectations.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) September 4, 2026
Trump also threatens to "stop trading with countries with which we have a deficit" if the Fed does not cut rates.
The Fed "must get smart," Trump says. pic.twitter.com/xC3mr4AVeZ
boognish_bear said:BREAKING: President Trump calls on the Fed to cut interest rates after the August jobs report nearly triples expectations.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) September 4, 2026
Trump also threatens to "stop trading with countries with which we have a deficit" if the Fed does not cut rates.
The Fed "must get smart," Trump says. pic.twitter.com/xC3mr4AVeZ
We are the third most populated country in the world (340 million people). So Trump is pretty much pushing for zero international trade? WOW!!!!
Not on board. He is singlehandedly destroying the world economy. Much more pain coming these next two years.
When Trump's handpicked Fed Chief Kevin Warsh raises interest rates next month, Trump is going to blow a gasket!
Call it a tax, the people are outraged! Call it a tariff, the people get out their checkbooks and wave their American flags!!!
"He is singlehandedly destroying the world economy."
He's doing what you were explicitly warned he was going to do, and it wouldn't be possible without the feckless GOP majority covering for him.
In other, unrelated news: a gallon of diesel is at the highest average cost ever, $5.85!
He's doing what you were explicitly warned he was going to do, and it wouldn't be possible without the feckless GOP majority covering for him.
In other, unrelated news: a gallon of diesel is at the highest average cost ever, $5.85!
HuMcK said:
"He is singlehandedly destroying the world economy."
He's doing what you were explicitly warned he was going to do, and it wouldn't be possible without the feckless GOP majority covering for him.
In other, unrelated news: a gallon of diesel is at the highest average cost ever, $5.85!
Yeah, a bag of Tillamook cheese is now over $5.00...
SipEmBears said:Doc Holliday said:BREAKING 🩸
— Ai Business Journal (@ArchieIntel) August 2, 2024
$2.9 TRILLION wiped out from stocks this morning due to fears of a global recession.
THE WORST DAY SINCE 2020 COVID CRASH pic.twitter.com/PIRTYxZpBeBREAKING: The Sahm rule that is designed to signal the start of a recession has officially been triggered.
— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) August 2, 2024
It reached 0.5%, as in, the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate is now 0.5% above the low in the last 12 months.BREAKING: The 10-Year Note Yield crashes over 15 basis points after a much weaker than expected July jobs report.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 2, 2024
The 10-year note yield yield is now down 55 BASIS POINTS in ONE WEEK.
For the first time since March 2020, bond markets are pricing-in a potential recession. pic.twitter.com/eW9YwEq4oQ
The s&p 500 has risen 43%, excluding dividends, since this post.
And, as I predicted, 3qtr GDP roars due to investment spending. (not a very hard prediction to make, given the massive amount of stimuli put in place late last year).
And ATL Fed's Q3 GDP forecast is at a whopping 4.75% w/ consumer spending adding 2.58 percentage points to that headline figure; there also looks to be a lot of stockpiling of imports, hence net exports contributing -1.46pp and inventories +2.09pp: https://t.co/hth7U4iLzY pic.twitter.com/hhkWzpnNii
— E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) September 4, 2026
whiterock said:SipEmBears said:Doc Holliday said:BREAKING 🩸
— Ai Business Journal (@ArchieIntel) August 2, 2024
$2.9 TRILLION wiped out from stocks this morning due to fears of a global recession.
THE WORST DAY SINCE 2020 COVID CRASH pic.twitter.com/PIRTYxZpBeBREAKING: The Sahm rule that is designed to signal the start of a recession has officially been triggered.
— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) August 2, 2024
It reached 0.5%, as in, the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate is now 0.5% above the low in the last 12 months.BREAKING: The 10-Year Note Yield crashes over 15 basis points after a much weaker than expected July jobs report.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 2, 2024
The 10-year note yield yield is now down 55 BASIS POINTS in ONE WEEK.
For the first time since March 2020, bond markets are pricing-in a potential recession. pic.twitter.com/eW9YwEq4oQ
The s&p 500 has risen 43%, excluding dividends, since this post.
And, as I predicted, 3qtr GDP roars due to investment spending. (not a very hard prediction to make, given the massive amount of stimuli put in place late last year).And ATL Fed's Q3 GDP forecast is at a whopping 4.75% w/ consumer spending adding 2.58 percentage points to that headline figure; there also looks to be a lot of stockpiling of imports, hence net exports contributing -1.46pp and inventories +2.09pp: https://t.co/hth7U4iLzY pic.twitter.com/hhkWzpnNii
— E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) September 4, 2026
Your back! Must have good Trump news? Otherwise, when things are in the ****ter you run away until you can grab a good stat.
Jobs report was good news for the hospitality, construction and government (do the government jobs count?).
Jobs numbers are stronger than they appear. For the first time in years, federal employment is not driving job growth.
The lightest federal workforce in American history https://t.co/Q6GwqVbxcS pic.twitter.com/lt385a8uKb
— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) September 4, 2026
That's a double victory! It's always a good thing when leviathan shrinks!
this is amazing. Less government workers the better.whiterock said:
Jobs numbers are stronger than they appear. For the first time in years, federal employment is not driving job growth.The lightest federal workforce in American history https://t.co/Q6GwqVbxcS pic.twitter.com/lt385a8uKb
— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) September 4, 2026
It will take some time for Trump policies to unwind the mess
Especially from the previous admin where a geriatric vegetable was in "command" with the use of autopen
Especially from the previous admin where a geriatric vegetable was in "command" with the use of autopen
Just in time for football season 🏈
— The White House (@WhiteHouse) September 5, 2026
Prices for your tailgate this Saturday are DECREASING under President Trump. 🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/xcsyHpt2M3
Women accounted for 98% of U.S. job gains in August, per FORTUNE
— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) September 5, 2026
Article says education and hospitality hiring pic.twitter.com/mXLgaK3lhQ
— Tune, MBA, CISSP (@CartuneNetwerk) September 5, 2026
There’s no inflation pic.twitter.com/5y0p6tc2No
— Not Jerome Powell (@alifarhat79) September 5, 2026