Recession

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J.R.
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In reply to BigGameBaylorBear • 1:24a, 4/29/26
BigGameBaylorBear said:
Hey Oil folk, what are the implications of UAE leaving OPEC?

man, I just don't know. I would suppose they pump the crap out of their product to force Saudi's hand. They would want to drive down prices as their break even is lower than Saudi . Saudi's entire economy is oil related. The UAE began diversification 20 yrs ago and have that advantage over Saudi. Nothing changes till Hormuz is settled.
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boognish_bear
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9:51a, 4/29/26
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whiterock
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In reply to FLBear5630 • 11:13a, 4/29/26
FLBear5630 said:
whiterock said:

Ok, it makes sense now. Your Saudi!

If you'll bother to click the link, you will see the essay is in English.
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FLBear5630
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In reply to whiterock • 11:46a, 4/29/26
It was a joke...
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Waco1947
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In reply to HuMcK • 11:53a, 4/29/26
HuMcK said:
Waco1947 said:
boognish_bear said:

What does this mean?

He's proposing a tax break for investors.

When you sell a stock, you are taxed only on the capital gain (that's the sale price, minus the "cost basis", which is what you bought it for). So say you bought a stock for $100, then sold it more than a year later for $110, you would pay a 15% tax on that $10 gain.

Cruz wants to index the cost basis to inflation so it would gradually raise over time. Back to that $100 stock purchase, if that value gets pegged to inflation somehow and now the basis is $105, when you sell for $110 you would now pay taxes on only $5 of gains instead of the $10 on the previous scenario (tax bill goes down from $1.50 to $.75).

Most middle class folks have their investments in retirement vehicles, where tax rules are different and capital gains shouldn't apply, so this proposal is really aimed at benefiting higher net worth individuals than the average working class.

Thanks. Very clear
Waco1947
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boognish_bear
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12:29p, 4/29/26
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BigGameBaylorBear
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In reply to boognish_bear • 12:42p, 4/29/26
boognish_bear said:


More of this please
Sic 'em Bears and Go Birds
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FLBear5630
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In reply to BigGameBaylorBear • 12:47p, 4/29/26
They need to show how it helps the normal person, not just the rich or it is not going to help with the election no matter how right it is.

What does it impact the normal person with a pension or a 401k that is just trying to retire or make ends meet? Besides trickle down.
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BigGameBaylorBear
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In reply to FLBear5630 • 12:52p, 4/29/26
FLBear5630 said:
They need to show how it helps the normal person, not just the rich or it is not going to help with the election no matter how right it is.

What does it impact the normal person with a pension or a 401k that is just trying to retire or make ends meet? Besides trickle down.


MAGA has a long way to go before they earn my support back but I'll never complain about a tax cut!
Sic 'em Bears and Go Birds
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FLBear5630
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In reply to BigGameBaylorBear • 12:56p, 4/29/26
BigGameBaylorBear said:
FLBear5630 said:
They need to show how it helps the normal person, not just the rich or it is not going to help with the election no matter how right it is.

What does it impact the normal person with a pension or a 401k that is just trying to retire or make ends meet? Besides trickle down.


MAGA has a long way to go before they earn my support back but I'll never complain about a tax cut!

Just thinking how to make it mean something to the average voter. I will take it, no doubt.

Hurt shoulder last night, so lot's of time on my hands today.
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BigGameBaylorBear
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In reply to FLBear5630 • 1:04p, 4/29/26
FLBear5630 said:
BigGameBaylorBear said:
FLBear5630 said:
They need to show how it helps the normal person, not just the rich or it is not going to help with the election no matter how right it is.

What does it impact the normal person with a pension or a 401k that is just trying to retire or make ends meet? Besides trickle down.


MAGA has a long way to go before they earn my support back but I'll never complain about a tax cut!

Just thinking how to make it mean something to the average voter. I will take it, no doubt.

Hurt shoulder last night, so lot's of time on my hands today.


Oh trust me, I was very disappointed we never got a real tax cut from Trump this go-around

He gave corporations a cut yet all we got a was a mere no tax on tips (up to a certain point)

If anything he raised taxes by implementing those tariffs!

Hope your shoulder feels better
Sic 'em Bears and Go Birds
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FLBear5630
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In reply to BigGameBaylorBear • 1:09p, 4/29/26
Thanks, stupidity. Got distracted, not paying attention. Next thing, an "Oh, Shi-" moment...
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D. C. Bear
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In reply to FLBear5630 • 4:50p, 4/29/26
FLBear5630 said:
whiterock said:

Ok, it makes sense now. Your Saudi!


I didn't realize you could own a Saudi.
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Oldbear83
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In reply to D. C. Bear • 5:56p, 4/29/26
D. C. Bear said:
FLBear5630 said:
whiterock said:

Ok, it makes sense now. Your Saudi!


I didn't realize you could own a Saudi.

In the 1970s some Saudis owned a Congressman or two, so I guess the reverse also applies.
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whiterock
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In reply to FLBear5630 • 6:25p, 4/29/26
FLBear5630 said:
It was a joke...

in fairness, it's been hard to tell on your posts of late.....
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FLBear5630
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In reply to whiterock • 6:53p, 4/29/26
Well you are one of the few that i believe will get some of the tongue in cheek political comments i make

You guys dont get that i don't take any of this politic talk serious. I would have a beer with most on here.b it is a discussion, passionate discussions are good things
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boognish_bear
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9:18p, 4/29/26
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whiterock
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In reply to boognish_bear • 8:30a, 4/30/26
boognish_bear said:

yet, personal income and spending posted very strong numbers, meeting and beating expectations.


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whiterock
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8:48a, 4/30/26
job numbers also stronger than expected

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ron.reagan
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In reply to whiterock • 9:15a, 4/30/26
whiterock said:
job numbers also stronger than expected


You have to be a bit isolated to think the job market isn't in absolute shambles, especially for new grads.
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FLBear5630
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In reply to ron.reagan • 9:34a, 4/30/26
It's no use. If you say anything but "that's great!" you are a TDSer.

They have pretty much destroyed any hope of a conversation about the total picture, you pretty much have to go along or the Trump Sicem Mafia will be on you.

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Waco1947
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In reply to FLBear5630 • 12:20p, 4/30/26
FLBear5630 said:
It's no use. If you say anything but "that's great!" you are a TDSer.

They have pretty much destroyed any hope of a conversation about the total picture, you pretty much have to go along or the Trump Sicem Mafia will be on you.


How true
Waco1947
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Waco1947
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In reply to FLBear5630 • 12:26p, 4/30/26
FLBear5630 said:
It's no use. If you say anything but "that's great!" you are a TDSer.

They have pretty much destroyed any hope of a conversation about the total picture, you pretty much have to go along or the Trump Sicem Mafia will be on you.


Here's one of the mafia sharing lies about me. He doesn't know me. " Is this what you told your congregation prior to the church failing and being swallowed up by another?
Waco1947
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whiterock
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In reply to FLBear5630 • 3:04p, 4/30/26
FLBear5630 said:
It's no use. If you say anything but "that's great!" you are a TDSer.

They have pretty much destroyed any hope of a conversation about the total picture, you pretty much have to go along or the Trump Sicem Mafia will be on you.


the data does not support the neverTrump narrative of impending economic doom. It suggests rather the opposite - the beginning stages of broad economic expansion.

Here's more inconvenient data for you on the "impending collapse" of the USD.

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Oldbear83
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In reply to FLBear5630 • 5:46p, 4/30/26
FLBear continues to deny he's a Democrat, but resorts constantly to DNC tactics and name-calling.
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FLBear5630
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In reply to Oldbear83 • 5:47p, 4/30/26
Only when attacked. I am a counterpuncher.
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FLBear5630
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In reply to whiterock • 5:59p, 4/30/26
This is about Stablecoin. Stablecoin is not a good thing for national financial stability.

Now, with Trump's move to crypto and Bessent as his Treasury Secretary? Are you saying we are moving the US to Stablecoin pegged to the US dollar?

Also, the source is from 2006, typo?
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Oldbear83
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In reply to FLBear5630 • 6:01p, 4/30/26
FLBear5630 said:
Only when attacked by shadows and the imaginary. I am a counterpuncher.

Added the missing part.
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FLBear5630
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In reply to Oldbear83 • 6:05p, 4/30/26
No, just the MAGA on here...

You know the ones more interested i "gottcha" games than the subject matter.

You just are a true believer in Trump. Some of the MAGA get off on seeing carnage (Steven Miller's of this Board to equate them to MAGA), I don't put you or WR in that category.

You guys really believe this is what the Nation needs to be better. I respect that, even if I don't agree with how he does it.

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Oldbear83
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In reply to FLBear5630 • 6:11p, 4/30/26
FLBear: " You just are a true believer in Trump."

Nope. You and your gang keep ignoring that I don't like his personality or style. Made that clear several times over, but it's not what you want to hear so you ignore it.

I just understand he's the sitting POTUS, and you yahoos are cheering for America's enemies.


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whiterock
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In reply to FLBear5630 • 7:24p, 4/30/26
FLBear5630 said:
This is about Stablecoin. Stablecoin is not a good thing for national financial stability.

Now, with Trump's move to crypto and Bessent as his Treasury Secretary? Are you saying we are moving the US to Stablecoin pegged to the US dollar?

Also, the source is from 2006, typo?

Misread on your part. Look closely at the chart and the time/date stamp on the post.

Managing threats from crypto-currency is not a terribly difficult for a strong sovereign power.
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J.R.
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In reply to whiterock • 7:44p, 4/30/26
whiterock said:
FLBear5630 said:
This is about Stablecoin. Stablecoin is not a good thing for national financial stability.

Now, with Trump's move to crypto and Bessent as his Treasury Secretary? Are you saying we are moving the US to Stablecoin pegged to the US dollar?

Also, the source is from 2006, typo?

Misread on your part. Look closely at the chart and the time/date stamp on the post.

Managing threats from crypto-currency is not a terribly difficult for a strong sovereign power.

guess you convieniently left out that Core Inflation increased more than forecasted. You also left out gasoline prices highest in 4 yrs. just a couple of details your Maggotness failed to address. Viva la Donnie!
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Fre3dombear
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In reply to J.R. • 7:47p, 4/30/26
J.R. said:
whiterock said:
FLBear5630 said:
This is about Stablecoin. Stablecoin is not a good thing for national financial stability.

Now, with Trump's move to crypto and Bessent as his Treasury Secretary? Are you saying we are moving the US to Stablecoin pegged to the US dollar?

Also, the source is from 2006, typo?

Misread on your part. Look closely at the chart and the time/date stamp on the post.

Managing threats from crypto-currency is not a terribly difficult for a strong sovereign power.

guess you convieniently left out that Core Inflation increased more than forecasted. You also left out gasoline prices highest in 4 yrs. just a couple of details your Maggotness failed to address. Viva la Donnie!


All that ends quickly as anyone astute knows and we will mint off it yet again.
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whiterock
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In reply to J.R. • 7:59p, 4/30/26
J.R. said:
whiterock said:
FLBear5630 said:
This is about Stablecoin. Stablecoin is not a good thing for national financial stability.

Now, with Trump's move to crypto and Bessent as his Treasury Secretary? Are you saying we are moving the US to Stablecoin pegged to the US dollar?

Also, the source is from 2006, typo?

Misread on your part. Look closely at the chart and the time/date stamp on the post.

Managing threats from crypto-currency is not a terribly difficult for a strong sovereign power.

guess you convieniently left out that Core Inflation increased more than forecasted. You also left out gasoline prices highest in 4 yrs. just a couple of details your Maggotness failed to address. Viva la Donnie!

you know well that price of gasoline will quickly come down, now that the USG has a dominant position in global energy markets. WIll take a few months, of course, but we are a huge producer, and we control directly the largest proven reserves on the planet (Venezuela), and now we have issued credit swaps to a major PG supplier who has just left OPEC.

Goal is $50 gas and we will get there soon. Maybe not in time enough for the mid-terms (although I wouldn't rule it out) but definitely for the 2029 general. Worried about mid-terms; bullish on 2028.

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boognish_bear
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8:23p, 4/30/26
Here's a new theory

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