J.R. said:

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OffshoreBear said:

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J.R. said:

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boognish_bear said:

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Finally some good news for CEOs… About time

Trump: "While oil prices are temporarily high ... the United States oil and gas business is making hundreds of billions of dollars" pic.twitter.com/Qj6whcDBJF

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) October 25, 2026

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so is Iran and Russia, Fat Boy Orange . art of the deal and master of the Universe.

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actually, they are not.


No for Iran. Partially for Russia, but with major limits.
Oil prices are elevated right now (Brent roughly $111117/bbl, WTI around $103). This is driven largely by Middle East conflict disruptions, including issues around the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran
Iranian oil and gas companies (primarily state-linked entities like NIOC) are not making a lot of money from high prices. Their exports have been largely shut down by a U.S. naval blockade.
Crude loadings through Hormuz dropped to near zero after the blockade tightened (effectively no meaningful new crude exports since around late August/September).
Production has been cut sharply to mostly domestic needs (reports put it under 2 million bpd recently, down from higher pre-conflict levels).
Remaining floating storage outside the blockade has been drawn down, and analysts (including Kpler) have projected oil revenues could fall to near zero by mid-December as the last cargoes clear.
High global prices do not help if they cannot export the barrels. The blockade has choked their main revenue source.
Russia
Russian oil and gas companies (Rosneft, Gazprom, etc.) and the federal budget are seeing some benefit from the higher prices, but it is not a free-market windfall.
October federal oil and gas tax revenue is projected around $12 billion, up about 10% year-over-year. Recent quarterly results for major firms have shown gains tied to higher prices in some periods.
However, year-to-date oil and gas revenues are still lower than the prior year (around 14% down through October in some calculations). Gazprom's first-half profit was down, partly due to currency effects and lost European volumes.
Russian Urals crude continues to sell at large discounts to Brent (often $2030/bbl or more at FOB points, depending on the route and timing), and freight/insurance costs on the "shadow fleet" are high. Ukrainian drone strikes have also hit infrastructure and refining capacity.
Sanctions, the need for discounts to find buyers (mainly China/India), production constraints, and war-related costs all reduce the net take.
In short: high prices help Russia's energy sector and budget relative to lower-price periods, but sanctions, discounts, logistics, and operational damage mean they are not simply "making a ton" the way an unsanctioned major would. Iran is currently on the opposite side of that equationexports are blocked, so the high prices are not translating into revenue.

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Iranian oil is flowing freely in the Strait. Iran and Russia are selling oil at the spot price which is about $130/barrell. Many of us are selling on the spot market at spot prices, not market prices. I fully understand how all this works as it is what I do for a living. Love ya, sweet Donnie. you just paid for my new grandson's private school and University! Viva la Art of the Deal!

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boognish_bear said:

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Finally some good news for CEOs… About time

Trump: "While oil prices are temporarily high ... the United States oil and gas business is making hundreds of billions of dollars" pic.twitter.com/Qj6whcDBJF

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) October 25, 2026

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OffshoreBear said:

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About 20mm are happy oil and gas companies are doing well.

It's a shame dems have such high taxes on gas, won't allow drilling in certain areas, canceled pipelines, push green energy which is expensive, etc.

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OffshoreBear said:

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About 20mm are happy oil and gas companies are doing well.

It's a shame dems have such high taxes on gas, won't allow drilling in certain areas, canceled pipelines, push green energy which is expensive, etc.

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william said:

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OffshoreBear said:

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About 20mm are happy oil and gas companies are doing well.

It's a shame dems have such high taxes on gas, won't allow drilling in certain areas, canceled pipelines, push green energy which is expensive, etc.

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..... and lots of good data center construction jobs out there.

pay VERY well.

- el UF

sadly, the ***** and Moan class is too lazy - or more likely - unskilled - to get those jobs.

D!

{ sipping coffee }

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FLBear5630 said:

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william said:

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OffshoreBear said:

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About 20mm are happy oil and gas companies are doing well.

It's a shame dems have such high taxes on gas, won't allow drilling in certain areas, canceled pipelines, push green energy which is expensive, etc.

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..... and lots of good data center construction jobs out there.

pay VERY well.

- el UF

sadly, the ***** and Moan class is too lazy - or more likely - unskilled - to get those jobs.

D!

{ sipping coffee }

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Too bad we didn't have a program to train people or a student loan forgiveness to make it more affordable. It is much more productive to say how lazy people are...

But, if we did do something in Workforce Development, it wouldn't be as easy to say how special we are that we are self-made if everyone had a job...

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william said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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william said:

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OffshoreBear said:

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About 20mm are happy oil and gas companies are doing well.

It's a shame dems have such high taxes on gas, won't allow drilling in certain areas, canceled pipelines, push green energy which is expensive, etc.

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..... and lots of good data center construction jobs out there.

pay VERY well.

- el UF

sadly, the ***** and Moan class is too lazy - or more likely - unskilled - to get those jobs.

D!

{ sipping coffee }

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Too bad we didn't have a program to train people or a student loan forgiveness to make it more affordable. It is much more productive to say how lazy people are...

But, if we did do something in Workforce Development, it wouldn't be as easy to say how special we are that we are self-made if everyone had a job...

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many of those companies offer up an in house apprentice / training program.

- el UF

..... as does Arbys.

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TRUMP: I have so many friends with private health care. They absolutely love it. pic.twitter.com/4Fxgog8DXC

— Acyn (@Acyn) October 25, 2026

Banks Now Requiring Your Grandkids To Co-Sign Your 50-Year Mortgage https://t.co/HNMBKSTJST

— The Babylon Bee (@TheBabylonBee) October 24, 2026

BREAKING: Microsoft, $MSFT, is offering buyouts to 60,000 workers as part of the company’s efforts to cut costs amid AI adoption, per Bloomberg.

Personnel on select teams in the US, Canada, India, and the UK at a vice president level and below will be eligible.

This reflects…

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) October 26, 2026

boognish_bear said:

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60,000??

BREAKING: Microsoft, $MSFT, is offering buyouts to 60,000 workers as part of the company’s efforts to cut costs amid AI adoption, per Bloomberg.

Personnel on select teams in the US, Canada, India, and the UK at a vice president level and below will be eligible.

This reflects…

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) October 26, 2026

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Revenue: $4.6 Billion
Net Loss: $42 Billion
IPO Valuation: $2 Trillion https://t.co/jNFqJngROo pic.twitter.com/P4KO6Ja5Au

— Manz🌪 (@ManzTrades) October 26, 2026

pic.twitter.com/vWY4EihZoY

— The UnderRhythm (@justinalpertesq) October 26, 2026

BREAKING: Trump: I don't want to drive housing prices down. I want to drive housing prices up

— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) October 26, 2026

Filling up a Ford F-150 truck now costs about $100, up $30 from a year ago. Mortgage rates have jumped to levels that have depressed home sales. And for the past 12 months, consumer prices have risen faster than paychecks, making the average family poorer. https://t.co/oe5FIOFYfk

— ABC News (@ABC) October 26, 2026

🚨 THE FIRST AI BUBBLE HAS BURST.

China's STAR50 index, which tracks the country's biggest AI and chip companies, has crashed 40% in less than four months.

That has wiped out about $480 billion in market value.

The damage has spread across the whole market.

China's main CSI… pic.twitter.com/LtC6nEcXnU

— Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio) October 26, 2026

boognish_bear said:

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🚨 THE FIRST AI BUBBLE HAS BURST.

China's STAR50 index, which tracks the country's biggest AI and chip companies, has crashed 40% in less than four months.

That has wiped out about $480 billion in market value.

The damage has spread across the whole market.

China's main CSI… pic.twitter.com/LtC6nEcXnU

— Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio) October 26, 2026

THE FIRST AI BUBBLE HAS BURST.

China's STAR50 index, which tracks the country's biggest AI and chip companies, has crashed 40% in less than four months.

That has wiped out about $480 billion in market value.

The damage has spread across the whole market.

China's main CSI 300 index is now in a bear market, down 20% from its June high, and Chinese stocks have lost $3.5 trillion in total value since their May peak.

China's two listed AI model companies, MiniMax and Zhipu, have lost a combined $150 billion from their highs.

Robot maker Unitree crashed 50% since its August listing, and optical parts makers Zhongji Innolight and Eoptolink are down about 60%.

The warning signs were already there.

At the peak, the STAR50 traded at almost 250 times earnings.

AI stocks made up 42% of China's entire stock market and 57% of all trading, mostly driven by retail investors.

Now look at the US.

AI-linked stocks make up 49% of the S&P 500's value, according to JPMorgan.

That's even higher than China's 42% before its crash.

The S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio is above 40, the second highest in over 150 years.

The only time it was higher was right before the dot-com crash.

Margin debt, the money investors borrow to buy stocks, has hit a record $1.5 trillion.

And Anthropic just filed for an IPO that could value it at $2 trillion, after losing $80.7 billion in the first half of this year.

The US is now flashing the same warning signs China did before its AI stocks crashed.

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Jack Bauer said:

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boognish_bear said:

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🚨 THE FIRST AI BUBBLE HAS BURST.

China's STAR50 index, which tracks the country's biggest AI and chip companies, has crashed 40% in less than four months.

That has wiped out about $480 billion in market value.

The damage has spread across the whole market.

China's main CSI… pic.twitter.com/LtC6nEcXnU

— Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio) October 26, 2026

THE FIRST AI BUBBLE HAS BURST.

China's STAR50 index, which tracks the country's biggest AI and chip companies, has crashed 40% in less than four months.

That has wiped out about $480 billion in market value.

The damage has spread across the whole market.

China's main CSI 300 index is now in a bear market, down 20% from its June high, and Chinese stocks have lost $3.5 trillion in total value since their May peak.

China's two listed AI model companies, MiniMax and Zhipu, have lost a combined $150 billion from their highs.

Robot maker Unitree crashed 50% since its August listing, and optical parts makers Zhongji Innolight and Eoptolink are down about 60%.

The warning signs were already there.

At the peak, the STAR50 traded at almost 250 times earnings.

AI stocks made up 42% of China's entire stock market and 57% of all trading, mostly driven by retail investors.

Now look at the US.

AI-linked stocks make up 49% of the S&P 500's value, according to JPMorgan.

That's even higher than China's 42% before its crash.

The S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio is above 40, the second highest in over 150 years.

The only time it was higher was right before the dot-com crash.

Margin debt, the money investors borrow to buy stocks, has hit a record $1.5 trillion.

And Anthropic just filed for an IPO that could value it at $2 trillion, after losing $80.7 billion in the first half of this year.

The US is now flashing the same warning signs China did before its AI stocks crashed.

---

Thats interesting as Microsoft seems to have gone all in (and no way back) on AI.

---

FLBear5630 said:

---

Jack Bauer said:

---

boognish_bear said:

---

🚨 THE FIRST AI BUBBLE HAS BURST.

China's STAR50 index, which tracks the country's biggest AI and chip companies, has crashed 40% in less than four months.

That has wiped out about $480 billion in market value.

The damage has spread across the whole market.

China's main CSI… pic.twitter.com/LtC6nEcXnU

— Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio) October 26, 2026

THE FIRST AI BUBBLE HAS BURST.

China's STAR50 index, which tracks the country's biggest AI and chip companies, has crashed 40% in less than four months.

That has wiped out about $480 billion in market value.

The damage has spread across the whole market.

China's main CSI 300 index is now in a bear market, down 20% from its June high, and Chinese stocks have lost $3.5 trillion in total value since their May peak.

China's two listed AI model companies, MiniMax and Zhipu, have lost a combined $150 billion from their highs.

Robot maker Unitree crashed 50% since its August listing, and optical parts makers Zhongji Innolight and Eoptolink are down about 60%.

The warning signs were already there.

At the peak, the STAR50 traded at almost 250 times earnings.

AI stocks made up 42% of China's entire stock market and 57% of all trading, mostly driven by retail investors.

Now look at the US.

AI-linked stocks make up 49% of the S&P 500's value, according to JPMorgan.

That's even higher than China's 42% before its crash.

The S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio is above 40, the second highest in over 150 years.

The only time it was higher was right before the dot-com crash.

Margin debt, the money investors borrow to buy stocks, has hit a record $1.5 trillion.

And Anthropic just filed for an IPO that could value it at $2 trillion, after losing $80.7 billion in the first half of this year.

The US is now flashing the same warning signs China did before its AI stocks crashed.

---

Thats interesting as Microsoft seems to have gone all in (and no way back) on AI.

---

I do not think it will crash like China's, but it has to be viewed as a tool for the workforce not the workforce itself. As a tool, it is very helpful. Trust it to operate independently? No way.

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The_barBEARian said:

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FLBear5630 said:

---

Jack Bauer said:

---

boognish_bear said:

---

🚨 THE FIRST AI BUBBLE HAS BURST.

China's STAR50 index, which tracks the country's biggest AI and chip companies, has crashed 40% in less than four months.

That has wiped out about $480 billion in market value.

The damage has spread across the whole market.

China's main CSI… pic.twitter.com/LtC6nEcXnU

— Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio) October 26, 2026

THE FIRST AI BUBBLE HAS BURST.

China's STAR50 index, which tracks the country's biggest AI and chip companies, has crashed 40% in less than four months.

That has wiped out about $480 billion in market value.

The damage has spread across the whole market.

China's main CSI 300 index is now in a bear market, down 20% from its June high, and Chinese stocks have lost $3.5 trillion in total value since their May peak.

China's two listed AI model companies, MiniMax and Zhipu, have lost a combined $150 billion from their highs.

Robot maker Unitree crashed 50% since its August listing, and optical parts makers Zhongji Innolight and Eoptolink are down about 60%.

The warning signs were already there.

At the peak, the STAR50 traded at almost 250 times earnings.

AI stocks made up 42% of China's entire stock market and 57% of all trading, mostly driven by retail investors.

Now look at the US.

AI-linked stocks make up 49% of the S&P 500's value, according to JPMorgan.

That's even higher than China's 42% before its crash.

The S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio is above 40, the second highest in over 150 years.

The only time it was higher was right before the dot-com crash.

Margin debt, the money investors borrow to buy stocks, has hit a record $1.5 trillion.

And Anthropic just filed for an IPO that could value it at $2 trillion, after losing $80.7 billion in the first half of this year.

The US is now flashing the same warning signs China did before its AI stocks crashed.

---

Thats interesting as Microsoft seems to have gone all in (and no way back) on AI.

---

I do not think it will crash like China's, but it has to be viewed as a tool for the workforce not the workforce itself. As a tool, it is very helpful. Trust it to operate independently? No way.

---

I think it will because China's AI models are all open-source and Big Tech cant order the CCP around like it can with US politicians & all the top AI researchers seem to either be Chinese or Taiwanese.

But this entire country and everything in it has devolved into a giant ponzi scheme... so there is still plenty of money to be made as long as you have good timing.

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Trump's affordability message: "You could even come to Mar-a-Lago. You'll be my guest. The problem is that for $5,000 the most you'll be able to buy is a hamburger and maybe a small dessert. I'm not even sure you could buy that! No, don't go there. It's not a good place if you're… pic.twitter.com/Fc4sCGGhTw

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) October 27, 2026

boognish_bear said:

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Let them eat burgers

Trump's affordability message: "You could even come to Mar-a-Lago. You'll be my guest. The problem is that for $5,000 the most you'll be able to buy is a hamburger and maybe a small dessert. I'm not even sure you could buy that! No, don't go there. It's not a good place if you're… pic.twitter.com/Fc4sCGGhTw

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) October 27, 2026

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As lifespans increase, people have to prepare—mentally and financially—to work well into their 70s and 80s. That’s going to require a new plan. https://t.co/Hsg7xuBeaM

— The Wall Street Journal (@WSJ) October 27, 2026

boognish_bear said:

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As lifespans increase, people have to prepare—mentally and financially—to work well into their 70s and 80s. That’s going to require a new plan. https://t.co/Hsg7xuBeaM

— The Wall Street Journal (@WSJ) October 27, 2026

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Oldbear83 said:

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boognish_bear said:

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As lifespans increase, people have to prepare—mentally and financially—to work well into their 70s and 80s. That’s going to require a new plan. https://t.co/Hsg7xuBeaM

— The Wall Street Journal (@WSJ) October 27, 2026

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If that is so, then perhaps the very real and very serious problem of Age Discrimination should be addressed.

Hidden and Persistent Unemployment Among Older Workers ECONOMIC POLICY RESEARCH

Many Older Workers Trapped in Long-Term Unemployment

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1. Gold can be created in a lab.
2. China’s AI bubble popped, erasing trillions.
3. Google crashed -13%, erasing $482 billion in a single day, its worst drop ever.
4. US plans another operation against Iran.
5. Crypto exchange Binance got hacked for $5.6 billion, the largest…

— Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio) October 29, 2026

🚨 US LAWMAKERS ARE NOW PREPARING FOR THE AI BUBBLE TO BURST.

House Democrats have introduced a resolution opposing government bailouts for AI companies if the industry crashes.

Instead of rescuing them with taxpayer money, lawmakers want failed AI companies to go through… pic.twitter.com/MLV8v3a33J

— The Macro Paper (@macropaperr) October 29, 2026

🚨 ABSOLUTE BLOODBATH IN CHINA'S STOCK MARKET.

¥1.1 TRILLION has been wiped out from Chinese stocks today as China's AI bubble bursts. pic.twitter.com/hEHRLdir6U

— Crypto Rover (@cryptorover) October 29, 2026

Affordable Care Act plan premiums will rise by 13% in 2027, the second straight year of double-digit increases in a strained market that is already facing shrinking enrollment. https://t.co/X06W5asNeh

— The Wall Street Journal (@WSJ) October 30, 2026

boognish_bear said:

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Affordable Care Act plan premiums will rise by 13% in 2027, the second straight year of double-digit increases in a strained market that is already facing shrinking enrollment. https://t.co/X06W5asNeh

— The Wall Street Journal (@WSJ) October 30, 2026

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