boognish_bear said:
Ok...it's coming...hang tightJUST IN: Trump says US will have an "economic boom" no nation has ever seen
— Kalshi (@Kalshi) June 25, 2026
Sad thing is some on here actually believe him
Recession
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Last: 1 hr ago by BigGameBaylorBear
Sad thing is some on here actually believe him
I don't think people realize how much money we've printed since covid.
U.S. inflation climbed to 4.1% in May, per Bloomberg.
— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) June 25, 2026
boognish_bear said:
Ok...it's coming...hang tightJUST IN: Trump says US will have an "economic boom" no nation has ever seen
— Kalshi (@Kalshi) June 25, 2026
just like the 7% GDP, the 2,000 DOGE checks, the elimination of income tax, etc.
Inflation up to 4.1%, highest since 2022. Fed target is 2%. Hello rate hikes.
Jack Bauer said:boognish_bear said:
Ok...it's coming...hang tightJUST IN: Trump says US will have an "economic boom" no nation has ever seen
— Kalshi (@Kalshi) June 25, 2026
just like the 7% GDP, the 2,000 DOGE checks, the elimination of income tax, etc.
Epstein files...
boognish_bear said:JUST IN: Analyst says SpaceX is overvalued by as much as 94%
— Kalshi (@Kalshi) June 17, 2026
same was said about Amazon for a whole lotta years. And today it's 27. On the high-end of average.
investors recognize potential and invest in it.
Elon has a pretty good track record.
QED.
Realitybites said:whiterock said:FLBear5630 said:
Do you actually live in the real world? Most Americans are going under.Probably not your circles, but your servants. Trumps policies have made even Biden look good! Most of us did better under Biden, unbelievable as that seems.
There is no trickle down, the top 1% may be doing great, but it is ending there. Freat if you are a billionaire.
you are the one who does not live in the real world, sputtering shop-worn class warfare nonsense.
it's called "the business cycle." Markets fluctuate, expand & contract, wax & wane over time. And there are indicators for where the trends are going, up or down. Right now, nearly all of the indicators are pointing toward economic expansion.
Let's see what Warsh says today.
With the financialization of the economy, there's been too close a parallel between economic expansion and monetary expansion. Unless something changes for the better, we're going to learn an unpleasant lesson about that.
the end of globalism will abate that quite a bit, although not entirely given that USD will remain a reserve currency for the foreseeable future.
HuMcK said:
"The Economic Boom/Winds of Winter is just around the corner, I promise!"
-George R.R. Martin/Whiterock
Ok, big boy. Bet big money against the economy. Be sure to report back in a year to see how it worked out for you.
https://www.etftrends.com/etf-strategist-content-hub/resilient-by-design-why-the-u-s-economy-keeps-surprising/
Yep,
If Trump can tweak a few things.. watch out
Yep,
If Trump can tweak a few things.. watch out
Doc Holliday said:whiterock said:FLBear5630 said:
Do you actually live in the real world? Most Americans are going under.Probably not your circles, but your servants. Trumps policies have made even Biden look good! Most of us did better under Biden, unbelievable as that seems.
There is no trickle down, the top 1% may be doing great, but it is ending there. Freat if you are a billionaire.
you are the one who does not live in the real world, sputtering shop-worn class warfare nonsense.
it's called "the business cycle." Markets fluctuate, expand & contract, wax & wane over time. And there are indicators for where the trends are going, up or down. Right now, nearly all of the indicators are pointing toward economic expansion.
If income and asset ownership are concentrated, "the economy" can grow while the median person's real wages barely move.
On the other hand, it is not mathematically possible to grow significant national wealth in the bottom half of the income/asset ownership. The only practical solution is to cut taxes across the board (which of course means the lower half who pay no taxes get very much benefit) and reduce regulations (which of course does not help people who don't own companies or stocks), and lower interest rates (which does help the lower half), and let the people with money make more & spend more (which does trickle down into more & better jobs for the lower half). Government then uses the crude but effective tactic letting taxes rise over time which has redistributive effects (upper half pays more, lower half pays nothing). The rich get richer. And the poor do, too, just not at the same rate as the rich.
Really the problem is affordability of the essentials. Housing, healthcare, insurance and basics that everyone needs is too damn expensive.
So how does one fix that by raising taxes, regulations, and interest rates? (one doesn't).
We have to stop inflating the currency with massive deficit spending. Only doing it immediately means harsh immediate pain (hard recession). Bessent's plan is a supply side play to grow the economy faster than the debt. It will work (if we get the growth). But that really isn't a plan to address affordability. It's a plan to forestall fiscal insolvency of the USG.
This is decades in the making. Wages are crap and the effects are catastrophic:BREAKING: For the first time ever both mom and dad are working full-time in most American families
— Kalshi (@Kalshi) June 19, 2026
That is the legacy of globalism. Financialization uber alles with no effort at all to increase production to fix the trade deficit. We simply must restructure the economy to be more production oriented rather than consumption oriented. Only then will wages rise. Continuing to pay other countries to produce ever cheaper consumer goods is not a sustainable path.
Companies exploit how competitive the job market has become. Workers are underpaid relative to the value they create, overworked beyond what a single paycheck used to require, and now both parents have to work just to keep up, which means household responsibilities don't get easier, they get split across two exhausted people instead of one stretched one. Then they wonder why people are so stressed the hell out.
Workers are underpaid because the jobs they are doing do not add value. AI is going to gut most of the service sector. So we have to start making stuff again. Taking our own raw materials and teaching labor to add value to them.
So much old-think going on, looking at everything thru the lens of globalism.
"Export-led growth is the only sustainable growth." You can't run trade deficits forever. Eventually the piper will have to be paid. We are doing that now.
The model you are talking about is the 1950's, it is not going to happen no matter how much you preach it. The days of going to HS and then getting a job at a factory are gone. What you are preaching is only going to make it worse. Top 1% has 55T or 37% of total wealth. Highest in modern history, it is only going to get worse under your plan. Your "let them eat cake" mentality is what is not sustainable.
Whiterock: " Workers are underpaid because the jobs they are doing do not add value. AI is going to gut most of the service sector."
Think for a moment about what you posted there. Generations of workers have been told by everyone in power that going to college and taking a white-collar job is the path to economic security.
Now you admit those jobs not only do not pay well, they are being eviscerated, deliberately, by businesses seeking short-term profits in the idiotic idea that there will not be long-term consequences.
If you look back at History, you may note that when nominal employment standards change to any great degree, there is a consequence in unrest and protest, including political revolution. The idea that corporations will be able to profit by treating people as disposable is going to fail in the long term. The idea that people unable to pay for their homes and raise their families will quietly accept this abuse is delusional.
The free market works in the long term because abuses are reined in and criminals punished. Just as monopolies and oligarchies are against ethical consideration, law must always heed public demand for accountability. Over two hundred fifty million people work in the United States, and the need to consider how to provide for that workforce beyond treating it as a machine should be more than obvious.
Ignoring an angry man may be wise. Ignoring an angry nation is suicide.
Think for a moment about what you posted there. Generations of workers have been told by everyone in power that going to college and taking a white-collar job is the path to economic security.
Now you admit those jobs not only do not pay well, they are being eviscerated, deliberately, by businesses seeking short-term profits in the idiotic idea that there will not be long-term consequences.
If you look back at History, you may note that when nominal employment standards change to any great degree, there is a consequence in unrest and protest, including political revolution. The idea that corporations will be able to profit by treating people as disposable is going to fail in the long term. The idea that people unable to pay for their homes and raise their families will quietly accept this abuse is delusional.
The free market works in the long term because abuses are reined in and criminals punished. Just as monopolies and oligarchies are against ethical consideration, law must always heed public demand for accountability. Over two hundred fifty million people work in the United States, and the need to consider how to provide for that workforce beyond treating it as a machine should be more than obvious.
Ignoring an angry man may be wise. Ignoring an angry nation is suicide.
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
Oldbear83 said:
Whiterock: " Workers are underpaid because the jobs they are doing do not add value. AI is going to gut most of the service sector."
Think for a moment about what you posted there. Generations of workers have been told by everyone in power that going to college and taking a white-collar job is the path to economic security.
Now you admit those jobs not only do not pay well, they are being eviscerated, deliberately, by businesses seeking short-term profits in the idiotic idea that there will not be long-term consequences.
If you look back at History, you may note that when nominal employment standards change to any great degree, there is a consequence in unrest and protest, including political revolution. The idea that corporations will be able to profit by treating people as disposable is going to fail in the long term. The idea that people unable to pay for their homes and raise their families will quietly accept this abuse is delusional.
The free market works in the long term because abuses are reined in and criminals punished. Just as monopolies and oligarchies are against ethical consideration, law must always heed public demand for accountability. Over two hundred fifty million people work in the United States, and the need to consider how to provide for that workforce beyond treating it as a machine should be more than obvious.
Ignoring an angry man may be wise. Ignoring an angry nation is suicide.
If AI makes service jobs redundant, it is not a result of being "eviscerated deliberately," by business more interested in short term profit. It would be a result of tasks being done by fewer employees working more efficiently with the aid of technology. None of those businesses will stay in business very long if they don't compete. Having said that, you are still right that economic disruption caused by technology does cause social upheaval.
D. C. Bear said:Oldbear83 said:
Whiterock: " Workers are underpaid because the jobs they are doing do not add value. AI is going to gut most of the service sector."
Think for a moment about what you posted there. Generations of workers have been told by everyone in power that going to college and taking a white-collar job is the path to economic security.
Now you admit those jobs not only do not pay well, they are being eviscerated, deliberately, by businesses seeking short-term profits in the idiotic idea that there will not be long-term consequences.
If you look back at History, you may note that when nominal employment standards change to any great degree, there is a consequence in unrest and protest, including political revolution. The idea that corporations will be able to profit by treating people as disposable is going to fail in the long term. The idea that people unable to pay for their homes and raise their families will quietly accept this abuse is delusional.
The free market works in the long term because abuses are reined in and criminals punished. Just as monopolies and oligarchies are against ethical consideration, law must always heed public demand for accountability. Over two hundred fifty million people work in the United States, and the need to consider how to provide for that workforce beyond treating it as a machine should be more than obvious.
Ignoring an angry man may be wise. Ignoring an angry nation is suicide.
If AI makes service jobs redundant, it is not a result of being "eviscerated deliberately," by business more interested in short term profit. It would be a result of tasks being done by fewer employees working more efficiently with the aid of technology. None of those businesses will stay in business very long if they don't compete. Having said that, you are still right that economic disruption caused by technology does cause social upheaval.
Part of the problem is the idea that AI is properly used to replace people. And yes, there is no question that IA is being cited as the primary reason for a lot of layoffs, for junior positions as well as replacing middle management. In some cases this excuse is just that, as the layoffs are meant to cut headcount and it's easier to blame AI than explain the greed behind the decision, but in some other cases companies are using AI agents to replace people on the assumption that there will be little to no cost in brand damage. That assumption is already being challenged, sometimes by the very companies which formerly boasted about replacing humans with machines.
That said, there is a very obvious swell of social and political resentment building against AI, and like many emotional waves this may cause a lot of harm if it continues to be ignored.
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
Please look at this and tell me these AI execs aren't anti-human.
The guy who won’t stop talking about how he created the “greatest economy ever” just got a 31% approval rating on the economy.
— Republicans against Trump (@RpsAgainstTrump) June 27, 2026
Brutal pic.twitter.com/665NBK6VxY
Jack Bauer said:
Please look at this and tell me these AI execs aren't anti-human.
They are for what gets them more money and more separation from the masses. They can control machines, there is no pushback, there is no ADA or Agism, they can do what they want keep themselves insulated from the unwashed masses and have a great life...
Hard to see this accelerating trend ever changing. Politicians and CEOs have no motivation to change this since they are benefiting.
BREAKING: Workers are receiving the smallest share of US income on record
— Kalshi (@Kalshi) June 28, 2026
Is that like Beetlejuice? If you say it enough times, it will eventually appear?
Scalise: "This is country that's actually experiencing a golden age again. I mean, gas prices are down 50 cents from where they were just a few weeks ago and continuing to go down. Affordability is back again." pic.twitter.com/TEMRJit3Ik
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) June 30, 2026
JUST IN: Major U.S. egg producers will pay $3.3 million & donate 53 million eggs to settle an alleged price manipulation probe.
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) June 30, 2026
boognish_bear said:
Hard to see this accelerating trend ever changing. Politicians and CEOs have no motivation to change this since they are benefiting.BREAKING: Workers are receiving the smallest share of US income on record
— Kalshi (@Kalshi) June 28, 2026
At some point it will bite them in the ass. If nobody can afford your product/service, you become cash flow negative.
boognish_bear said:
Hard to see this accelerating trend ever changing. Politicians and CEOs have no motivation to change this since they are benefiting.BREAKING: Workers are receiving the smallest share of US income on record
— Kalshi (@Kalshi) June 28, 2026
...and DSA affilited candidates are getting the most votes on record.
Siri...show me an example of being tone deaf
PabloReports: How do House Republicans make the case that you're fighting for affordability when you go back to your districts?
Nehls: Affordability? What are you talking about? I'm gonna go there tomorrow. I'm gonna get me a couple of big lobster tails. I'm gonna get me some nice rib eyes.
Reporter: Do you think the 60% of Americans living paycheck to paycheck can afford lobster tails and rib eyes and all of that?
Nehls: Maybe not. Maybe the 60% of Americans don't work as hard as I do.
PabloReports: How do House Republicans make the case that you're fighting for affordability when you go back to your districts?
— MeidasTouch (@MeidasTouch) June 30, 2026
Nehls: Affordability? What are you talking about? I'm gonna go there tomorrow. I'm gonna get me a couple of big lobster tails. I'm gonna get me some… pic.twitter.com/mFenNE9m6x
PabloReports: How do House Republicans make the case that you're fighting for affordability when you go back to your districts?
Nehls: Affordability? What are you talking about? I'm gonna go there tomorrow. I'm gonna get me a couple of big lobster tails. I'm gonna get me some nice rib eyes.
Reporter: Do you think the 60% of Americans living paycheck to paycheck can afford lobster tails and rib eyes and all of that?
Nehls: Maybe not. Maybe the 60% of Americans don't work as hard as I do.
BREAKING: The US economy adds 57,000 jobs in June, well below expectations of 114,000.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 2, 2026
The unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, below expectations of 4.3%.
May's jobs number was also revised down by -43,000 jobs.
The labor market remains in a volatile situation.
boognish_bear said:BREAKING: The US economy adds 57,000 jobs in June, well below expectations of 114,000.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 2, 2026
The unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, below expectations of 4.3%.
May's jobs number was also revised down by -43,000 jobs.
The labor market remains in a volatile situation.
that is such total BS!!! Fake data. Haven't you heard that this is the best economy the world has ever known. So , you have a problem with tariffs? BS...Tariffs are awesome.
My husband is busting his ass today in a steel mill in 90+ degree heat 60 hours a week all summer long and I’ll be at my job on July 4 at the hospital while you enjoy your holiday you starchy shirted jackass. Tell me we don’t work as hard as you. pic.twitter.com/Z2G1njzO6E
— Kasey Helton (@KaseyHelton05) July 1, 2026
boognish_bear said:My husband is busting his ass today in a steel mill in 90+ degree heat 60 hours a week all summer long and I’ll be at my job on July 4 at the hospital while you enjoy your holiday you starchy shirted jackass. Tell me we don’t work as hard as you. pic.twitter.com/Z2G1njzO6E
— Kasey Helton (@KaseyHelton05) July 1, 2026
Does this guy NOT want to get reelected?
J.R. said:boognish_bear said:BREAKING: The US economy adds 57,000 jobs in June, well below expectations of 114,000.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 2, 2026
The unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, below expectations of 4.3%.
May's jobs number was also revised down by -43,000 jobs.
The labor market remains in a volatile situation.
that is such total BS!!! Fake data. Haven't you heard that this is the best economy the world has ever known. So , you have a problem with tariffs? BS...Tariffs are awesome.
Trump has doubled down on his tariffs. He is charging most countries a $15 cover charge just to enter the club. Many countries are walking away and finding another club. Not because they want to, but because they were forced to. Xi Jinping is quietly laughing his ass off.
Call it a tax, the people are outraged! Call it a tariff, the people get out their checkbooks and wave their American flags!!!
J.R. said:
Inflation up to 4.1%, highest since 2022. Fed target is 2%. Hello rate hikes.
The fed funds rate is currently 3.63%. The prime is 6.75%. Treasuries are yielding anywhere between 3.57%-4.97% depending on the instrument and duration.
Getting the inflation rate down to the 2% target would require 150-200 basis point hikes over the next year.
You might get a couple of symbolic 25 basis point hikes, but 31.4% of the national debt has to be rolled over and refinanced over the next year.
So the necessary hikes to get the interest rates above the inflation rate aren't going to happen. Even if you ignore what such a hike would do to the broader economy, it would add $1.5-$2 trillion dollars in interest costs on the national debt over the next decade.
So that's not going to happen.
What will happen is that the Warsh Federal Reserve will redefine inflation yet again, abandoning the use of Core PCE and instead using a trimmed inflation gauge that pretends inflation is returning to 2%. He's said as much.
A former World Bank president warns that the Federal Reserve has lost over a trillion dollars, essentially operating as a massive hedge fund for the wealthy.
— David Rogers Webb (@DavidRogersW) July 4, 2026
By borrowing from banks at 5.4% interest to buy Govt. bonds, the Fed artificially masks the true severity of Govt. debt. pic.twitter.com/1PVWGeWJwk
Oldbear83 said:
Whiterock: " Workers are underpaid because the jobs they are doing do not add value. AI is going to gut most of the service sector."
Think for a moment about what you posted there. Generations of workers have been told by everyone in power that going to college and taking a white-collar job is the path to economic security.
Yes. That was the "go west, young man" mentality of our generation.
Now you admit those jobs not only do not pay well, they are being eviscerated, deliberately, by businesses seeking short-term profits in the idiotic idea that there will not be long-term consequences.
Not quite. You described white collar jobs in the previous paragraph, which do pay comparably with manufacturing jobs, then conflated them with all the low-skill service jobs which do not pay as well as manufacturing jobs. And that's before we get to the true heart of our discontent - college degrees that neither service nor manufacturing industries value, consigning those people to either unskilled labor jobs or public sector jobs with limited upside on earning potential. Regardless which dynamic, though, it's all derivative of a globalism structure that we too far for too long.
If you look back at History, you may note that when nominal employment standards change to any great degree, there is a consequence in unrest and protest, including political revolution. The idea that corporations will be able to profit by treating people as disposable is going to fail in the long term. The idea that people unable to pay for their homes and raise their families will quietly accept this abuse is delusional.
Yes. And that dynamic is at play here. But even our discontented lesbian studies major working at Starbucks rather than at Goldman Sachs major is quite wealthy by world standards.
The free market works in the long term because abuses are reined in and criminals punished. Just as monopolies and oligarchies are against ethical consideration, law must always heed public demand for accountability. Over two hundred fifty million people work in the United States, and the need to consider how to provide for that workforce beyond treating it as a machine should be more than obvious.
That's why we see Trump driving a spear thru Globalism and Vance talking about a post-liberal order which seeks to affirm the building blocks of culture - faith, family, human dignity - rather than post modernist intersectionality which atomized culture into nothing more than affirmation of identity, thereby sacrificing the American worker on the altar of a world without borders.
Ignoring an angry man may be wise. Ignoring an angry nation is suicide.
We aren't ignoring it. We are fixing it.
whiterock said:Oldbear83 said:
Whiterock: " Workers are underpaid because the jobs they are doing do not add value. AI is going to gut most of the service sector."
Think for a moment about what you posted there. Generations of workers have been told by everyone in power that going to college and taking a white-collar job is the path to economic security.
Yes. That was the "go west, young man" mentality of our generation.
Now you admit those jobs not only do not pay well, they are being eviscerated, deliberately, by businesses seeking short-term profits in the idiotic idea that there will not be long-term consequences.
Not quite. You described white collar jobs in the previous paragraph, which do pay comparably with manufacturing jobs, then conflated them with all the low-skill service jobs which do not pay as well as manufacturing jobs. And that's before we get to the true heart of our discontent - college degrees that neither service nor manufacturing industries value, consigning those people to either unskilled labor jobs or public sector jobs with limited upside on earning potential. Regardless which dynamic, though, it's all derivative of a globalism structure that we too far for too long.
If you look back at History, you may note that when nominal employment standards change to any great degree, there is a consequence in unrest and protest, including political revolution. The idea that corporations will be able to profit by treating people as disposable is going to fail in the long term. The idea that people unable to pay for their homes and raise their families will quietly accept this abuse is delusional.
Yes. And that dynamic is at play here. But even our discontented lesbian studies major working at Starbucks rather than at Goldman Sachs major is quite wealthy by world standards.
The free market works in the long term because abuses are reined in and criminals punished. Just as monopolies and oligarchies are against ethical consideration, law must always heed public demand for accountability. Over two hundred fifty million people work in the United States, and the need to consider how to provide for that workforce beyond treating it as a machine should be more than obvious.
That's why we see Trump driving a spear thru Globalism and Vance talking about a post-liberal order which seeks to affirm the building blocks of culture - faith, family, human dignity - rather than post modernist intersectionality which atomized culture into nothing more than affirmation of identity, thereby sacrificing the American worker on the altar of a world without borders.
Ignoring an angry man may be wise. Ignoring an angry nation is suicide.
We aren't ignoring it. We are fixing it.
Zero evidence of that, just posturing up to now.
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
whiterock said:Oldbear83 said:
Whiterock: " Workers are underpaid because the jobs they are doing do not add value. AI is going to gut most of the service sector."
Think for a moment about what you posted there. Generations of workers have been told by everyone in power that going to college and taking a white-collar job is the path to economic security.
Yes. That was the "go west, young man" mentality of our generation.
Now you admit those jobs not only do not pay well, they are being eviscerated, deliberately, by businesses seeking short-term profits in the idiotic idea that there will not be long-term consequences.
Not quite. You described white collar jobs in the previous paragraph, which do pay comparably with manufacturing jobs, then conflated them with all the low-skill service jobs which do not pay as well as manufacturing jobs. And that's before we get to the true heart of our discontent - college degrees that neither service nor manufacturing industries value, consigning those people to either unskilled labor jobs or public sector jobs with limited upside on earning potential. Regardless which dynamic, though, it's all derivative of a globalism structure that we too far for too long.
If you look back at History, you may note that when nominal employment standards change to any great degree, there is a consequence in unrest and protest, including political revolution. The idea that corporations will be able to profit by treating people as disposable is going to fail in the long term. The idea that people unable to pay for their homes and raise their families will quietly accept this abuse is delusional.
Yes. And that dynamic is at play here. But even our discontented lesbian studies major working at Starbucks rather than at Goldman Sachs major is quite wealthy by world standards.
The free market works in the long term because abuses are reined in and criminals punished. Just as monopolies and oligarchies are against ethical consideration, law must always heed public demand for accountability. Over two hundred fifty million people work in the United States, and the need to consider how to provide for that workforce beyond treating it as a machine should be more than obvious.
That's why we see Trump driving a spear thru Globalism and Vance talking about a post-liberal order which seeks to affirm the building blocks of culture - faith, family, human dignity - rather than post modernist intersectionality which atomized culture into nothing more than affirmation of identity, thereby sacrificing the American worker on the altar of a world without borders.
Ignoring an angry man may be wise. Ignoring an angry nation is suicide.
We aren't ignoring it. We are fixing it.
Whose idea was NAFTA and the WTO? Who tee'd up Globalism for Clinton to bring home? May want to look it up in your Conservative handbook.
The US loves to boast about how wealthy it is, but its wealth is concentrated in the hands of a few oligarchs.
— Ben Norton (@BenjaminNorton) July 6, 2026
US oligarchs are so insanely rich that they make average wealth seem very high.
But *median* wealth in the US is lower than in Slovenia & Portugal, and half of Italy's https://t.co/3BxNRxH8QC pic.twitter.com/zKZF3wLdnX
Seems like a lot of "socialist" nations have higher median wealth than the US. Seems if you are the top 1% US is great, if not you are better off in Slovenia.