Wangchung said:
whiterock said:
Wangchung said:
If illegals had even the SLIGHTEST benefit then the Biden administration would not be attempting to keep them contained in Red states. The border is open to hurt Red states and that was fine until those states started bussing illegals to Blue states. Suddenly it was cruel to bring illegals into a state and suddenly those illegals needed to be restricted to Red states. But illegals are still better to have than to not have, we pinky promise swear! Biden just wants to keep those benefits in red states?
the larger reason for wanting to keep illegals in red states is that bringing them to blue states undermines blue state support for illegal immigration.
Do Democrats see illegal immigration as a way to undermine GOP control over red states? yes.
Is that the biggest reason this admin (and others) turn a blind eye to illegal immigration? No.
The primary reason we have illegal immigration is because it is the most powerful economic stimulus available to policymakers. Any other perceived benefits are derivative. Dems may actually be overconfident on the political impact of illegal immigration. Without voter fraud, illegals cannot vote, and the children of properly naturalized citizen immigrants tend to be a Republican demographic.
I maintain that if the positives of illegal immigration outweighed the negatives then there is no way in hell the Biden administration would be forcing illegals to stay in Red states. If the idea is to shield democrats from the reality of the border situation then it still stands that there is no way the benefits outweigh the negatives. The children of illegals tend to distrust law enforcement and lean left.
He wants to force the immediate flow to stay in non-competitive states, to mitigate effects on the 2024 election.
Abbott's shipments of migrants to big blue cities has had desirable affect on getting the issue in the news, and starting to win the messaging war. Blue state Dems are getting roasted by their own constituents . Now, he should start shipping them to WI, MI, PA..... Use the issue to start turning swing states redder.
Re whether or not positive outweighs negative: In macroeconomic effects, you have to stay macroeconomic....big picture, top-line, etc.... Every time a human being crosses the southern border, the consumption of tacos & toilet paper increases. The key word is consumption. They need a place to live, clothes, food, transportation, etc..... All of that is consumption. And all of that will ensure Dems can say "the economy is growing." It is. Because we are deficit spending on things like millions of migrants. Sure, there are other effects, like deficit spending driving up debt and inflation and crime, etc.... But if you can't say "the economy is growing," nothing else matters. Things like debt & inflation can be blamed on Trump, Republicans, capitalists/ism, Russians, etc...... And the one you will increasingly hear more about - CLIMATE CHANGE. "Why, we have to move to electric cars, end coal mines, tax you with carbon credits, etc....to stop the climate from forcing all these migrants on us." You think that sounds silly? Watch & wait. You will hear Democrats saying that kind of nonsense. It's all they got.
But in purely economic terms, migrants are powerful economic stimulus. Look at the inverse. Pick a number of how many illegals you think are here. 11m? That's Ohio. 15m? That's Massachusetts and New Jersey. 20m? That's Florida or New York. If you could somehow marshal the resources to deport every illegal, it would have impacts on economic growth similar to deporting every citizen of one of those states mentioned. It would be a harsh, instant economic contraction that would take years to overcome. Look at Covid. We're still not thru the aftershocks of shutting the economy down for a couple of months.
What state(s) get the primary benefits of the migrant dynamics doesn't matter, because it all hits the top-line growth number. Texas led the nation in economic growth during most of the Obama admin......so every time Obama made some claim about how good was the economy, he was actually taking credit for a top-line significantly impacted by GOP policies. Good politicians do that - take credit for your opponents' successes; blame your opponents for your own failures. No matter how silly it actually is, do it earnestly and often and if you're good at it it'll keep you competitive. The negative impacts of the illegal immigration problem will be blamed on something/someone other than Democrats. That is going to be a big task for Democrats in 2024. And I don't think it's going to work as well as they need. Illegal immigration is going to be one of the top 2-3 issues in the coming election, and it's going to inflict great pain on Democrats.
yeah, that's messy and chaotic. Welcome to politics.